Offshore
s GB300s, not H200s. That's the most basic stuff & almost impossible to get wrong. 2) You got no clue about $NBIS's CAPEX spend regarding the $MSFT deal, because management NEVER publicized it. Management didn't even disclose how many GB300s are contracted…
rdware once you factor in the DataOne leasing fee, and other gross expenses and cash OPEX related to the deal.
... There is nothing left for $NBIS.
To be clear, $IREN is also just barley making money from this deal on a net income level. Basically, low double digits of net profit after tax once you account for ALL expenses.
But since $IREN is making at least ~10-15% net margins on this deal, they're in an excellent position to replicate this kind of deal across its 3GW portfolio and grow its bottom line tremendously over the coming years.
However, once you crunch the numbers, you quickly realize that if $IREN had to pay colocation fees for their data centers, the way $NBIS has to, there would be barely any profit left.
That's also why the management of $NBIS doesn't even disclose EBITDA margin guidance, like $IREN does. It would make it more obvious that their deal's economic profile doesn't yield any meaningful returns for the company.
The funny part is that hardly any $NBIS investors question any of this total lack of transparency. Y'all just eat it up and believe in hype. Management talks a big game about their software moat but has nothing to show for it economically.
If they truly receive so much more revenue per GPU unit, then why just not be upfront with it & proof it? It's the easiest thing to do & it SHOULD be demanded by $NBIS shareholders.
However, they are purposefully being ambiguous & very careful about what they share. It's all fluff, no hard economic data, besides their quarterly reports (which display horrible profit margins).
$NBIS's management NEEDS to play this game, because they are relying on the stock market to raise capital. They just closed MASSIVE (dilutive) public offerings, dumping shares onto retail to raise billions in capital.
$NBIS can't afford to lever up significantly, because:
1) They don't have the margins = too much debt, will raise interest payments & effectively turn their break-even situation to a NET LOSS situation.
2) Unlike $IREN, they didn't receive a 20% prepayment for their deal, which is money that would lower their cost of capital and improve lending conditions. They didn't get that, which means higher financing costs relative to $IREN.
$NBIS has no choice BUT to sell a bunch of shares to raise equity which will be used to pay for the required CAPEX.
But guess what... if they were upfront with their deal's economics (which don't look very pretty), the stock price would plummet, which means they wouldn't easily be able to sell shares on the market as a means to raise capital.
Nebius HAS to hype themselves up, so that gullible $NBIS shareholders eat it up and keep the share price afloat while they use this opportunity to dump on all of you. Otherwise, they'd struggle to raise enough (cheap) capital needed for this deal.
To be honest, it's quite hilarious seeing so many $NBIS bulls falling for this and eating up management's hype with NO margins to back it up, or any economic details provided from management.
Even the PRIVATE company Nscale provided more details on their Microsoft deal than $NBIS ever did.
The only $NBIS bull that is forthcoming & starting to question Nebius's lack of transparency is @HyperTechInvest. Props to him for starting to ask the right questions.
Anyways, the coming years will be very interesting. I just want y'all to remember who shilled what stock here on X... Do yourself a favor and take note of it. - 𝐀𝐠𝐫𝐢𝐩𝐩𝐚 𝐈𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐬 tweet
... There is nothing left for $NBIS.
To be clear, $IREN is also just barley making money from this deal on a net income level. Basically, low double digits of net profit after tax once you account for ALL expenses.
But since $IREN is making at least ~10-15% net margins on this deal, they're in an excellent position to replicate this kind of deal across its 3GW portfolio and grow its bottom line tremendously over the coming years.
However, once you crunch the numbers, you quickly realize that if $IREN had to pay colocation fees for their data centers, the way $NBIS has to, there would be barely any profit left.
That's also why the management of $NBIS doesn't even disclose EBITDA margin guidance, like $IREN does. It would make it more obvious that their deal's economic profile doesn't yield any meaningful returns for the company.
The funny part is that hardly any $NBIS investors question any of this total lack of transparency. Y'all just eat it up and believe in hype. Management talks a big game about their software moat but has nothing to show for it economically.
If they truly receive so much more revenue per GPU unit, then why just not be upfront with it & proof it? It's the easiest thing to do & it SHOULD be demanded by $NBIS shareholders.
However, they are purposefully being ambiguous & very careful about what they share. It's all fluff, no hard economic data, besides their quarterly reports (which display horrible profit margins).
$NBIS's management NEEDS to play this game, because they are relying on the stock market to raise capital. They just closed MASSIVE (dilutive) public offerings, dumping shares onto retail to raise billions in capital.
$NBIS can't afford to lever up significantly, because:
1) They don't have the margins = too much debt, will raise interest payments & effectively turn their break-even situation to a NET LOSS situation.
2) Unlike $IREN, they didn't receive a 20% prepayment for their deal, which is money that would lower their cost of capital and improve lending conditions. They didn't get that, which means higher financing costs relative to $IREN.
$NBIS has no choice BUT to sell a bunch of shares to raise equity which will be used to pay for the required CAPEX.
But guess what... if they were upfront with their deal's economics (which don't look very pretty), the stock price would plummet, which means they wouldn't easily be able to sell shares on the market as a means to raise capital.
Nebius HAS to hype themselves up, so that gullible $NBIS shareholders eat it up and keep the share price afloat while they use this opportunity to dump on all of you. Otherwise, they'd struggle to raise enough (cheap) capital needed for this deal.
To be honest, it's quite hilarious seeing so many $NBIS bulls falling for this and eating up management's hype with NO margins to back it up, or any economic details provided from management.
Even the PRIVATE company Nscale provided more details on their Microsoft deal than $NBIS ever did.
The only $NBIS bull that is forthcoming & starting to question Nebius's lack of transparency is @HyperTechInvest. Props to him for starting to ask the right questions.
Anyways, the coming years will be very interesting. I just want y'all to remember who shilled what stock here on X... Do yourself a favor and take note of it. - 𝐀𝐠𝐫𝐢𝐩𝐩𝐚 𝐈𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐬 tweet
Offshore
Video
EndGame Macro
Play the Game That Fits Your Life
In moments like this, people get pulled in a hundred different directions. Every influencer, every chart guy, every this is the moment account is shouting their version of reality. But none of those people live your life. None of them carry your responsibilities. None of them pay your bills or take care of your family.
So the focus has to shift from what the market wants from you to what actually makes sense for you.
Some people really can stomach heavy volatility. They have stable income, low debt, long time horizons, and enough cushion to absorb a bad year or two without it changing their day to day life. For them, a drawdown is annoying, not dangerous.
But others aren’t in that position, and that’s where trouble creeps in. When someone’s stretched thin and hoping that one speculative position is going to fix everything, it’s easy to override common sense and cling to whatever narrative feels comforting. That’s when risk turns into stress, and stress turns into damage.
The question everyone should be asking right now is incredibly simple…If this went to zero tomorrow, would I still be okay? Would the people who depend on me still be okay?
If your answer is yes, that’s great. You’re playing with capital that can survive a beating. If your answer even hesitates, your gut is already telling you the truth your mind doesn’t want to say out loud.
Markets don’t care about our hopes. They don’t reward bravery. They reward discipline, patience, and not putting yourself in a position where one bad week can wreck your real life.
This isn’t financial advice, just some perspective from someone who’s seen what happens when people ignore their own instincts in moments like this.
tweet
Play the Game That Fits Your Life
In moments like this, people get pulled in a hundred different directions. Every influencer, every chart guy, every this is the moment account is shouting their version of reality. But none of those people live your life. None of them carry your responsibilities. None of them pay your bills or take care of your family.
So the focus has to shift from what the market wants from you to what actually makes sense for you.
Some people really can stomach heavy volatility. They have stable income, low debt, long time horizons, and enough cushion to absorb a bad year or two without it changing their day to day life. For them, a drawdown is annoying, not dangerous.
But others aren’t in that position, and that’s where trouble creeps in. When someone’s stretched thin and hoping that one speculative position is going to fix everything, it’s easy to override common sense and cling to whatever narrative feels comforting. That’s when risk turns into stress, and stress turns into damage.
The question everyone should be asking right now is incredibly simple…If this went to zero tomorrow, would I still be okay? Would the people who depend on me still be okay?
If your answer is yes, that’s great. You’re playing with capital that can survive a beating. If your answer even hesitates, your gut is already telling you the truth your mind doesn’t want to say out loud.
Markets don’t care about our hopes. They don’t reward bravery. They reward discipline, patience, and not putting yourself in a position where one bad week can wreck your real life.
This isn’t financial advice, just some perspective from someone who’s seen what happens when people ignore their own instincts in moments like this.
tweet