Offshore
WealthyReadings RT @MarkosAAIG: Okay guys. Very interesting conversation about $NBIS and $IREN by @Agrippa_Inv and @aleabitoreddit.I’ve read it with a lot of pleasure, and I’m writing this response also with a big smile. What’s happening in this thread is…
s GB300s, not H200s. That's the most basic stuff & almost impossible to get wrong.
2) You got no clue about $NBIS's CAPEX spend regarding the $MSFT deal, because management NEVER publicized it. Management didn't even disclose how many GB300s are contracted for this deal.
As a result, your GPU Model, GPU Cost / Unit, GPUs / MW, GPU CaPex / MW data is all off when it comes to $NBIS.
Even your GPU depreciation estimate of "4 years" is totally off. For god's sake, both $IREN & $NBIS just signed FIVE year deals with $MSFT, how can you assume 4 years of depreciation... make it make sense.
It's also not correct to compare the deals based on revenue per MW.
Microsoft is NOT contracting MWs, this is not a colocation deal. This is a CLOUD deal. They're exclusively paying for cloud capacity, i.e. for the numbers of GPUs contracted.
So, the only reasonable yardstick to compare revenue across both deals is on a per GPU basis.
As I just pointed out, $NBIS never gave us any data on GPU quantity (lack of transparency is a big red flag), so we can only speculate how many GPUs Nebius must purchase for their agreement.
We know that $IREN fits 19k GB300s at its 50 MW facilities. But I'm also aware that $IREN left white-space capacity in their 50 MW Horizon data centers, for reasons I went into in my recent Deep Dive on the deal.
So, we can't use $IREN to extrapolate on Nebius's GPU quantity.
The best case study to extrapolate from is the Nscale x Microsoft deal (also GB300s). Nscale disclosed that it's fitting ~22-23k GB300s across 50 MW.
Using that same GPU / MW range for Nebius, we get to a total quantity of 132-138k GB300s for 300 MW IT.
On a revenue per GPU that leads us to:
$IREN = $127.6k
$NBIS = $126.1k - $131.8k
In other words, $NBIS & $IREN get paid the same for their deals with Microsoft.
The only difference is that $IREN got a massive 20% prepayment upfront, while $NBIS did not.
$IREN will be able to use that prepayment to lower their CAPEX burden and decrease financing costs.
Meanwhile, $NBIS got nothing, or else I'm sure they would have advertised it to shareholders.
On top of that, Nebiushas to pay DataOne a big cheque for using its facilities, while $IREN is effectively their own landlord due to vertical integration (owning their self-built data centers).
The irony here is that $IREN clearly got the much better deal, WITHOUT any "software" stack...
I got news to all of you $NBIS investors:
Microsoft isn't paying 1 cent for Nebius's software. NOWHERE in the 6k filings does $NBIS even state that they are charging Microsoft for software, it's very clearly outlined as a hardware (i.e., bare metal) deal.
Come on... do some work once in your life instead of relying on X info. Go on the Nebius IR page & download the Microsoft deal 6k filing and read it for yourself or run it through your favorite LLM and see for yourself.
All the $NBIS shillers on X are doing you a disservice for claiming otherwise.
It's also ridiculous to think otherwise. Think about it for 1 moment. Do you seriously think Microsoft, an S-tier SOFTWARE provider running one of the largest cloud services on the planet (Azure), needs help from $NBIS in the software department?
Come on...
I had discussions with many software engineers who work at hyperscalers, all of them laugh at the idea of gullible $NBIS investors seriously believing that Microsoft is outsourcing software from them.
The irony here is that, $NBIS management could easily disprove any doubt, by publishing hard data on the Microsoft deal.
But guess what?
They haven't done so.
Why could that be? Why is a company like $IREN so transparent with their respective deal, but $NBIS doesn't even disclose the number of GPUs it must purchase to fulfill their end of the bargain?
It's pretty obvious why that's the case.
If you calculate how much $ $NBIS stands to make on their deal (using the 132-138k GPU estimates), they are basically just breaking even on the ha[...]
2) You got no clue about $NBIS's CAPEX spend regarding the $MSFT deal, because management NEVER publicized it. Management didn't even disclose how many GB300s are contracted for this deal.
As a result, your GPU Model, GPU Cost / Unit, GPUs / MW, GPU CaPex / MW data is all off when it comes to $NBIS.
Even your GPU depreciation estimate of "4 years" is totally off. For god's sake, both $IREN & $NBIS just signed FIVE year deals with $MSFT, how can you assume 4 years of depreciation... make it make sense.
It's also not correct to compare the deals based on revenue per MW.
Microsoft is NOT contracting MWs, this is not a colocation deal. This is a CLOUD deal. They're exclusively paying for cloud capacity, i.e. for the numbers of GPUs contracted.
So, the only reasonable yardstick to compare revenue across both deals is on a per GPU basis.
As I just pointed out, $NBIS never gave us any data on GPU quantity (lack of transparency is a big red flag), so we can only speculate how many GPUs Nebius must purchase for their agreement.
We know that $IREN fits 19k GB300s at its 50 MW facilities. But I'm also aware that $IREN left white-space capacity in their 50 MW Horizon data centers, for reasons I went into in my recent Deep Dive on the deal.
So, we can't use $IREN to extrapolate on Nebius's GPU quantity.
The best case study to extrapolate from is the Nscale x Microsoft deal (also GB300s). Nscale disclosed that it's fitting ~22-23k GB300s across 50 MW.
Using that same GPU / MW range for Nebius, we get to a total quantity of 132-138k GB300s for 300 MW IT.
On a revenue per GPU that leads us to:
$IREN = $127.6k
$NBIS = $126.1k - $131.8k
In other words, $NBIS & $IREN get paid the same for their deals with Microsoft.
The only difference is that $IREN got a massive 20% prepayment upfront, while $NBIS did not.
$IREN will be able to use that prepayment to lower their CAPEX burden and decrease financing costs.
Meanwhile, $NBIS got nothing, or else I'm sure they would have advertised it to shareholders.
On top of that, Nebiushas to pay DataOne a big cheque for using its facilities, while $IREN is effectively their own landlord due to vertical integration (owning their self-built data centers).
The irony here is that $IREN clearly got the much better deal, WITHOUT any "software" stack...
I got news to all of you $NBIS investors:
Microsoft isn't paying 1 cent for Nebius's software. NOWHERE in the 6k filings does $NBIS even state that they are charging Microsoft for software, it's very clearly outlined as a hardware (i.e., bare metal) deal.
Come on... do some work once in your life instead of relying on X info. Go on the Nebius IR page & download the Microsoft deal 6k filing and read it for yourself or run it through your favorite LLM and see for yourself.
All the $NBIS shillers on X are doing you a disservice for claiming otherwise.
It's also ridiculous to think otherwise. Think about it for 1 moment. Do you seriously think Microsoft, an S-tier SOFTWARE provider running one of the largest cloud services on the planet (Azure), needs help from $NBIS in the software department?
Come on...
I had discussions with many software engineers who work at hyperscalers, all of them laugh at the idea of gullible $NBIS investors seriously believing that Microsoft is outsourcing software from them.
The irony here is that, $NBIS management could easily disprove any doubt, by publishing hard data on the Microsoft deal.
But guess what?
They haven't done so.
Why could that be? Why is a company like $IREN so transparent with their respective deal, but $NBIS doesn't even disclose the number of GPUs it must purchase to fulfill their end of the bargain?
It's pretty obvious why that's the case.
If you calculate how much $ $NBIS stands to make on their deal (using the 132-138k GPU estimates), they are basically just breaking even on the ha[...]
Offshore
s GB300s, not H200s. That's the most basic stuff & almost impossible to get wrong. 2) You got no clue about $NBIS's CAPEX spend regarding the $MSFT deal, because management NEVER publicized it. Management didn't even disclose how many GB300s are contracted…
rdware once you factor in the DataOne leasing fee, and other gross expenses and cash OPEX related to the deal.
... There is nothing left for $NBIS.
To be clear, $IREN is also just barley making money from this deal on a net income level. Basically, low double digits of net profit after tax once you account for ALL expenses.
But since $IREN is making at least ~10-15% net margins on this deal, they're in an excellent position to replicate this kind of deal across its 3GW portfolio and grow its bottom line tremendously over the coming years.
However, once you crunch the numbers, you quickly realize that if $IREN had to pay colocation fees for their data centers, the way $NBIS has to, there would be barely any profit left.
That's also why the management of $NBIS doesn't even disclose EBITDA margin guidance, like $IREN does. It would make it more obvious that their deal's economic profile doesn't yield any meaningful returns for the company.
The funny part is that hardly any $NBIS investors question any of this total lack of transparency. Y'all just eat it up and believe in hype. Management talks a big game about their software moat but has nothing to show for it economically.
If they truly receive so much more revenue per GPU unit, then why just not be upfront with it & proof it? It's the easiest thing to do & it SHOULD be demanded by $NBIS shareholders.
However, they are purposefully being ambiguous & very careful about what they share. It's all fluff, no hard economic data, besides their quarterly reports (which display horrible profit margins).
$NBIS's management NEEDS to play this game, because they are relying on the stock market to raise capital. They just closed MASSIVE (dilutive) public offerings, dumping shares onto retail to raise billions in capital.
$NBIS can't afford to lever up significantly, because:
1) They don't have the margins = too much debt, will raise interest payments & effectively turn their break-even situation to a NET LOSS situation.
2) Unlike $IREN, they didn't receive a 20% prepayment for their deal, which is money that would lower their cost of capital and improve lending conditions. They didn't get that, which means higher financing costs relative to $IREN.
$NBIS has no choice BUT to sell a bunch of shares to raise equity which will be used to pay for the required CAPEX.
But guess what... if they were upfront with their deal's economics (which don't look very pretty), the stock price would plummet, which means they wouldn't easily be able to sell shares on the market as a means to raise capital.
Nebius HAS to hype themselves up, so that gullible $NBIS shareholders eat it up and keep the share price afloat while they use this opportunity to dump on all of you. Otherwise, they'd struggle to raise enough (cheap) capital needed for this deal.
To be honest, it's quite hilarious seeing so many $NBIS bulls falling for this and eating up management's hype with NO margins to back it up, or any economic details provided from management.
Even the PRIVATE company Nscale provided more details on their Microsoft deal than $NBIS ever did.
The only $NBIS bull that is forthcoming & starting to question Nebius's lack of transparency is @HyperTechInvest. Props to him for starting to ask the right questions.
Anyways, the coming years will be very interesting. I just want y'all to remember who shilled what stock here on X... Do yourself a favor and take note of it. - 𝐀𝐠𝐫𝐢𝐩𝐩𝐚 𝐈𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐬 tweet
... There is nothing left for $NBIS.
To be clear, $IREN is also just barley making money from this deal on a net income level. Basically, low double digits of net profit after tax once you account for ALL expenses.
But since $IREN is making at least ~10-15% net margins on this deal, they're in an excellent position to replicate this kind of deal across its 3GW portfolio and grow its bottom line tremendously over the coming years.
However, once you crunch the numbers, you quickly realize that if $IREN had to pay colocation fees for their data centers, the way $NBIS has to, there would be barely any profit left.
That's also why the management of $NBIS doesn't even disclose EBITDA margin guidance, like $IREN does. It would make it more obvious that their deal's economic profile doesn't yield any meaningful returns for the company.
The funny part is that hardly any $NBIS investors question any of this total lack of transparency. Y'all just eat it up and believe in hype. Management talks a big game about their software moat but has nothing to show for it economically.
If they truly receive so much more revenue per GPU unit, then why just not be upfront with it & proof it? It's the easiest thing to do & it SHOULD be demanded by $NBIS shareholders.
However, they are purposefully being ambiguous & very careful about what they share. It's all fluff, no hard economic data, besides their quarterly reports (which display horrible profit margins).
$NBIS's management NEEDS to play this game, because they are relying on the stock market to raise capital. They just closed MASSIVE (dilutive) public offerings, dumping shares onto retail to raise billions in capital.
$NBIS can't afford to lever up significantly, because:
1) They don't have the margins = too much debt, will raise interest payments & effectively turn their break-even situation to a NET LOSS situation.
2) Unlike $IREN, they didn't receive a 20% prepayment for their deal, which is money that would lower their cost of capital and improve lending conditions. They didn't get that, which means higher financing costs relative to $IREN.
$NBIS has no choice BUT to sell a bunch of shares to raise equity which will be used to pay for the required CAPEX.
But guess what... if they were upfront with their deal's economics (which don't look very pretty), the stock price would plummet, which means they wouldn't easily be able to sell shares on the market as a means to raise capital.
Nebius HAS to hype themselves up, so that gullible $NBIS shareholders eat it up and keep the share price afloat while they use this opportunity to dump on all of you. Otherwise, they'd struggle to raise enough (cheap) capital needed for this deal.
To be honest, it's quite hilarious seeing so many $NBIS bulls falling for this and eating up management's hype with NO margins to back it up, or any economic details provided from management.
Even the PRIVATE company Nscale provided more details on their Microsoft deal than $NBIS ever did.
The only $NBIS bull that is forthcoming & starting to question Nebius's lack of transparency is @HyperTechInvest. Props to him for starting to ask the right questions.
Anyways, the coming years will be very interesting. I just want y'all to remember who shilled what stock here on X... Do yourself a favor and take note of it. - 𝐀𝐠𝐫𝐢𝐩𝐩𝐚 𝐈𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐬 tweet
Offshore
Video
EndGame Macro
Play the Game That Fits Your Life
In moments like this, people get pulled in a hundred different directions. Every influencer, every chart guy, every this is the moment account is shouting their version of reality. But none of those people live your life. None of them carry your responsibilities. None of them pay your bills or take care of your family.
So the focus has to shift from what the market wants from you to what actually makes sense for you.
Some people really can stomach heavy volatility. They have stable income, low debt, long time horizons, and enough cushion to absorb a bad year or two without it changing their day to day life. For them, a drawdown is annoying, not dangerous.
But others aren’t in that position, and that’s where trouble creeps in. When someone’s stretched thin and hoping that one speculative position is going to fix everything, it’s easy to override common sense and cling to whatever narrative feels comforting. That’s when risk turns into stress, and stress turns into damage.
The question everyone should be asking right now is incredibly simple…If this went to zero tomorrow, would I still be okay? Would the people who depend on me still be okay?
If your answer is yes, that’s great. You’re playing with capital that can survive a beating. If your answer even hesitates, your gut is already telling you the truth your mind doesn’t want to say out loud.
Markets don’t care about our hopes. They don’t reward bravery. They reward discipline, patience, and not putting yourself in a position where one bad week can wreck your real life.
This isn’t financial advice, just some perspective from someone who’s seen what happens when people ignore their own instincts in moments like this.
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Play the Game That Fits Your Life
In moments like this, people get pulled in a hundred different directions. Every influencer, every chart guy, every this is the moment account is shouting their version of reality. But none of those people live your life. None of them carry your responsibilities. None of them pay your bills or take care of your family.
So the focus has to shift from what the market wants from you to what actually makes sense for you.
Some people really can stomach heavy volatility. They have stable income, low debt, long time horizons, and enough cushion to absorb a bad year or two without it changing their day to day life. For them, a drawdown is annoying, not dangerous.
But others aren’t in that position, and that’s where trouble creeps in. When someone’s stretched thin and hoping that one speculative position is going to fix everything, it’s easy to override common sense and cling to whatever narrative feels comforting. That’s when risk turns into stress, and stress turns into damage.
The question everyone should be asking right now is incredibly simple…If this went to zero tomorrow, would I still be okay? Would the people who depend on me still be okay?
If your answer is yes, that’s great. You’re playing with capital that can survive a beating. If your answer even hesitates, your gut is already telling you the truth your mind doesn’t want to say out loud.
Markets don’t care about our hopes. They don’t reward bravery. They reward discipline, patience, and not putting yourself in a position where one bad week can wreck your real life.
This isn’t financial advice, just some perspective from someone who’s seen what happens when people ignore their own instincts in moments like this.
tweet