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memenodes
Crypto traders in the market for over five years and haven't made any profits https://t.co/44TLD30Gxj
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Crypto traders in the market for over five years and haven't made any profits https://t.co/44TLD30Gxj
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Offshore
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EndGame Macro
The Day the Plumbing Spoke Louder Than the Fed
If you look at today in isolation, it feels messy, SOFR jumping over the Fed’s ceiling, the repo facility getting tapped, global yields drifting higher, USD/JPY finally backing off, and Bitcoin getting knocked straight down the elevator shaft. But when you put all the pieces together, the story is much cleaner…the Fed may have ended QT on paper, but the underlying funding conditions are still tight enough that the market is quietly forcing the transition. The plumbing is speaking louder than the policy statement.
The Funding Market Is Calling The Bluff
SOFR shouldn’t be sitting above the Fed’s upper bound for days at a time, and it definitely shouldn’t be above the discount window rate. That only happens when the system is brushing up against real balance sheet limits. Banks and dealers aren’t paying a premium for dollars because they want to, they’re doing it because private liquidity has dried up at the margin. And the moment the spread to the Fed’s standing repo facility got too wide, we saw what always happens…dealers finally swallowed their pride and tapped the SRF for $25B. That’s a clear sign that QT had reached its natural stopping point. The Fed ending QT wasn’t proactive. It was reactive.
Global Yields Are Repricing the New Reality
At the same time, long end yields around the world are drifting higher, not lower. That’s not what you normally see after two rate cuts and the end of QT. It’s what you see when the market starts questioning the fiscal paths of major economies, and when Japan once the quiet anchor holding down global term premiums begins to move. JGBs at multi decade highs and USD/JPY finally rolling over is the first real sign that the yen carry framework is shifting. When Japan wobbles, it doesn’t stay local. It feeds into credit, into duration trades, into every corner of global risk taking.
The Risk Trades Are the First to Crack
Bitcoin’s sudden drop fits into that framework almost perfectly. Crypto has been living off easy funding and one directional narratives: Fed is done, QT ending, dollar peaking, liquidity returning. But when SOFR jumps, when the SRF is tapped, when long end yields rise instead of fall, and when the yen carry starts to unwind, the high beta trades feel the stress first. Leveraged longs unwind, liquidity thins, stops cascade, and the move becomes dramatic. It’s not about Bitcoin fundamentally, it’s about macro balance sheets being forced to derisk.
The Bigger Picture
So the real takeaway isn’t that something broke. It’s that the post 2020 regime of free carry and painless leverage is fading, and the shift is starting in the pipes rather than the headlines. The Fed ended QT because it had to. Funding markets are tight because balance sheets are full. Global yields are rising because the world is waking up to the cost of fiscal expansion. And the risk assets getting hit, starting with Bitcoin are simply the first places where tight money shows up.
That’s the story today is telling if you’re listening.
tweet
The Day the Plumbing Spoke Louder Than the Fed
If you look at today in isolation, it feels messy, SOFR jumping over the Fed’s ceiling, the repo facility getting tapped, global yields drifting higher, USD/JPY finally backing off, and Bitcoin getting knocked straight down the elevator shaft. But when you put all the pieces together, the story is much cleaner…the Fed may have ended QT on paper, but the underlying funding conditions are still tight enough that the market is quietly forcing the transition. The plumbing is speaking louder than the policy statement.
The Funding Market Is Calling The Bluff
SOFR shouldn’t be sitting above the Fed’s upper bound for days at a time, and it definitely shouldn’t be above the discount window rate. That only happens when the system is brushing up against real balance sheet limits. Banks and dealers aren’t paying a premium for dollars because they want to, they’re doing it because private liquidity has dried up at the margin. And the moment the spread to the Fed’s standing repo facility got too wide, we saw what always happens…dealers finally swallowed their pride and tapped the SRF for $25B. That’s a clear sign that QT had reached its natural stopping point. The Fed ending QT wasn’t proactive. It was reactive.
Global Yields Are Repricing the New Reality
At the same time, long end yields around the world are drifting higher, not lower. That’s not what you normally see after two rate cuts and the end of QT. It’s what you see when the market starts questioning the fiscal paths of major economies, and when Japan once the quiet anchor holding down global term premiums begins to move. JGBs at multi decade highs and USD/JPY finally rolling over is the first real sign that the yen carry framework is shifting. When Japan wobbles, it doesn’t stay local. It feeds into credit, into duration trades, into every corner of global risk taking.
The Risk Trades Are the First to Crack
Bitcoin’s sudden drop fits into that framework almost perfectly. Crypto has been living off easy funding and one directional narratives: Fed is done, QT ending, dollar peaking, liquidity returning. But when SOFR jumps, when the SRF is tapped, when long end yields rise instead of fall, and when the yen carry starts to unwind, the high beta trades feel the stress first. Leveraged longs unwind, liquidity thins, stops cascade, and the move becomes dramatic. It’s not about Bitcoin fundamentally, it’s about macro balance sheets being forced to derisk.
The Bigger Picture
So the real takeaway isn’t that something broke. It’s that the post 2020 regime of free carry and painless leverage is fading, and the shift is starting in the pipes rather than the headlines. The Fed ended QT because it had to. Funding markets are tight because balance sheets are full. Global yields are rising because the world is waking up to the cost of fiscal expansion. And the risk assets getting hit, starting with Bitcoin are simply the first places where tight money shows up.
That’s the story today is telling if you’re listening.
Standing Repo Facility (SRF) just tapped for $25bln https://t.co/MGhKDHM34G tweet
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Quiver Quantitative
JUST IN: Democratic candidate Aftyn Behn is now being given a 14% chance to win the Tennessee House special election tomorrow.
It's a deep-red district, that Trump won by 22 points. https://t.co/eexFPHOZsb
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JUST IN: Democratic candidate Aftyn Behn is now being given a 14% chance to win the Tennessee House special election tomorrow.
It's a deep-red district, that Trump won by 22 points. https://t.co/eexFPHOZsb
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AkhenOsiris
$CRWD Announcements at AWS re:Invent
CrowdStrike unveils real-time cloud detection technology at AWS re:Invent
CrowdStrike Stops Cloud Attacks in Seconds with Real-Time Cloud Detection and Response Innovations
CrowdStrike launches pay-as-you-go pricing for AWS security products
CrowdStrike Operationalizes and Secures Agentic AI Workloads on AWS
CrowdStrike Advances Next-Gen SIEM and Cloud Security Access on AWS with Streamlined Onboarding, Flexible Pricing, and Cost-Efficient Data Access
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$CRWD Announcements at AWS re:Invent
CrowdStrike unveils real-time cloud detection technology at AWS re:Invent
CrowdStrike Stops Cloud Attacks in Seconds with Real-Time Cloud Detection and Response Innovations
CrowdStrike launches pay-as-you-go pricing for AWS security products
CrowdStrike Operationalizes and Secures Agentic AI Workloads on AWS
CrowdStrike Advances Next-Gen SIEM and Cloud Security Access on AWS with Streamlined Onboarding, Flexible Pricing, and Cost-Efficient Data Access
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EndGame Macro
https://t.co/XbmqvBCIBT
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https://t.co/XbmqvBCIBT
BREAKING: MicroStrategy, $MSTR, falls over -7% on the day to its lowest level since October 2024.
The stock is now down -55% since October 6th in one of its steepest declines on record. https://t.co/Tx79iTLOhC tweet
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Wasteland Capital
Bottom 15 of the Nasdaq 100 YTD.
Some real trash on here but only 12 stocks with a >20% drawdown, not bad. $TTD at the far bottom. Haha! Itoldyouso exhibit 5398.
If your fund manager was long any of this sh*t through the whole year, take your hard-earned money out today. Now. https://t.co/udiGtkMgvk
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Bottom 15 of the Nasdaq 100 YTD.
Some real trash on here but only 12 stocks with a >20% drawdown, not bad. $TTD at the far bottom. Haha! Itoldyouso exhibit 5398.
If your fund manager was long any of this sh*t through the whole year, take your hard-earned money out today. Now. https://t.co/udiGtkMgvk
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WealthyReadings
The $GOOG Cloud $AMZN AWS partnership isn’t getting nearly enough attention on here.
It is a massive game changer with lots of implications.
Cloud interconnectivity has been a major bottleneck for more than a decade, slowing development with technical complexity & adding massive costs for companies operating across multiple cloud providers - necessary for security and reliability.
A fast & native interconnect between two of the most used clouds changes that. It simplifies multi-cloud architectures and can save companies billions while giving them far more flexibility in how they deploy and manage compute workloads.
For example, companies will now be able to leverage compute features from both AWS and Google Cloud for the same app and move data between them quickly and cheaply. That means they can use the best tool from each provider without being locked into one ecosystem or forced into expensive & slow data transfers.
The effect on compute demand is tough to predict. Bears could say that companies will no longer need to duplicate workloads across clouds, reducing overall compute need. Bulls can argue that this bridge unlocks new use cases that were previously too slow, complex or costly, driving more demand, not less.
Another key angle: $GOOG TPUs become much more accessible. AWS customers can now offload only the portions of their workloads that benefit from TPU acceleration, without migrating their entire stack to Google Cloud and commiting there.
It will take time for companies to migrate and use this feature but make no mistake: this is a massive game changer.
The world of tech and innovation became easier, faster and cheaper today. And that’s a big deal.
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The $GOOG Cloud $AMZN AWS partnership isn’t getting nearly enough attention on here.
It is a massive game changer with lots of implications.
Cloud interconnectivity has been a major bottleneck for more than a decade, slowing development with technical complexity & adding massive costs for companies operating across multiple cloud providers - necessary for security and reliability.
A fast & native interconnect between two of the most used clouds changes that. It simplifies multi-cloud architectures and can save companies billions while giving them far more flexibility in how they deploy and manage compute workloads.
For example, companies will now be able to leverage compute features from both AWS and Google Cloud for the same app and move data between them quickly and cheaply. That means they can use the best tool from each provider without being locked into one ecosystem or forced into expensive & slow data transfers.
The effect on compute demand is tough to predict. Bears could say that companies will no longer need to duplicate workloads across clouds, reducing overall compute need. Bulls can argue that this bridge unlocks new use cases that were previously too slow, complex or costly, driving more demand, not less.
Another key angle: $GOOG TPUs become much more accessible. AWS customers can now offload only the portions of their workloads that benefit from TPU acceleration, without migrating their entire stack to Google Cloud and commiting there.
It will take time for companies to migrate and use this feature but make no mistake: this is a massive game changer.
The world of tech and innovation became easier, faster and cheaper today. And that’s a big deal.
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