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EndGame Macro
The Charts Are Saying One Thing: Crypto Front Loaded a Liquidity Story That Hasn’t Arrived Yet
If you zoom out and look at all of these side by side, there’s a single story running through them: the air is slowly coming out of a market that ran too far, too fast, on a narrative that hasn’t materialized yet.
SOL and XRP both tell you the same thing in different shapes. They each had their big run, sentiment got loud, and then the bid faded. The rallies over the last few months weren’t new demand, they were aftershocks. Every bounce has been weaker than the last, and the market caps have been grinding lower in that way that doesn’t look dramatic on a single day, but looks unmistakable over a year. That’s what a slow, steady risk off shift looks like.
BTC’s weekly structure makes it even clearer. Price losing the 50 week moving average, RSI rolling over, momentum drifting from controlled strength into sloppy weakness, that’s not a blow off top, it’s a market that ran ahead of the macro backdrop and is now slipping back to meet it. When you see volatility rising into downside, you’re not watching people sell because they suddenly hate Bitcoin; you’re watching crowded leverage unwind in real time.
And the BTC monthly chart seals it. A 20% drawdown with a near vertical drop tells you there was too much leverage leaning in one direction, and the moment macro wobbled without injecting liquidity, velocity cooling, that positioning got flushed.
What It All Means Together
The takeaway is that crypto priced in the idea of easier liquidity long before liquidity actually arrived. Markets traded the story, not the reality. And now the reality is catching up.
Money is still expensive. Activity is slowing. Liquidity exists in the system, sure but it’s sitting in T-bills and money markets, not chasing beta. Until the real economy actually feels the effects of rate cuts and easier conditions which historically takes quarters, not weeks every rally is going to feel heavy, and every air pocket is going to hit harder than it should.
This is a market adjusting back to the world it’s actually in, not the one it hoped would show up overnight.
Highly recommend giving @levenson_david
a follow.
tweet
The Charts Are Saying One Thing: Crypto Front Loaded a Liquidity Story That Hasn’t Arrived Yet
If you zoom out and look at all of these side by side, there’s a single story running through them: the air is slowly coming out of a market that ran too far, too fast, on a narrative that hasn’t materialized yet.
SOL and XRP both tell you the same thing in different shapes. They each had their big run, sentiment got loud, and then the bid faded. The rallies over the last few months weren’t new demand, they were aftershocks. Every bounce has been weaker than the last, and the market caps have been grinding lower in that way that doesn’t look dramatic on a single day, but looks unmistakable over a year. That’s what a slow, steady risk off shift looks like.
BTC’s weekly structure makes it even clearer. Price losing the 50 week moving average, RSI rolling over, momentum drifting from controlled strength into sloppy weakness, that’s not a blow off top, it’s a market that ran ahead of the macro backdrop and is now slipping back to meet it. When you see volatility rising into downside, you’re not watching people sell because they suddenly hate Bitcoin; you’re watching crowded leverage unwind in real time.
And the BTC monthly chart seals it. A 20% drawdown with a near vertical drop tells you there was too much leverage leaning in one direction, and the moment macro wobbled without injecting liquidity, velocity cooling, that positioning got flushed.
What It All Means Together
The takeaway is that crypto priced in the idea of easier liquidity long before liquidity actually arrived. Markets traded the story, not the reality. And now the reality is catching up.
Money is still expensive. Activity is slowing. Liquidity exists in the system, sure but it’s sitting in T-bills and money markets, not chasing beta. Until the real economy actually feels the effects of rate cuts and easier conditions which historically takes quarters, not weeks every rally is going to feel heavy, and every air pocket is going to hit harder than it should.
This is a market adjusting back to the world it’s actually in, not the one it hoped would show up overnight.
Highly recommend giving @levenson_david
a follow.
https://t.co/2MAdCZxL4t tweet
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EndGame Macro
Japan’s 10 Year Is Ringing An Alarm Bell And Here’s What It Really Means
Japan’s 10 year yield pushing toward 1.9% in Japan it’s a seismic shift. For the better part of 30 years, that bond wasn’t a market instrument, it was a policy prop. The BoJ pinned it near zero, bought most of the market, and treated the yield as more of a message than a price.
Now it’s acting like a real bond again. And this sudden climb is the market saying you can’t hold back the tide forever.
Inflation has stuck around. Japan’s debt load is enormous. And with the BoJ stepping back from yield curve control, investors are finally demanding something closer to a real return. The whole curve 2 year, 5 year, 10 year, 30 year is lifting in a way Japan hasn’t seen since before the global financial crisis.
This isn’t a clean normalization story. It’s the market testing how far Japan can walk away from three decades of emergency style policy before something snaps.
What Happens If the Global Cycle Breaks?
Here’s the critical part no one wants to talk about: this shift only holds if the world stays afloat.
If the global economy rolls over into a real recession or worse, a deflationary shock…Japan will blink first. No country is more scarred by deflation. If growth cracks, trade slows, and global prices fall, the BoJ won’t sit back and watch yields drift upward while the domestic economy sinks.
They’ll push rates back toward the floor. They’ll revive bond buying. They may not bring back the old, rigid yield caps, but they’ll throw enough tools at the curve to keep borrowing costs from choking the system.
The difference this time is they know the side effects with broken bond liquidity, weak banks, a perpetually soft yen that can become a liability if import costs spike. So the rescue will be messier, more improvised, but still inevitable.
The Real Message Behind the Move
So today’s 10 year spike isn’t Japan saying they love high rates now. It’s the market asking how long can you sustain this without breaking something?
If the global cycle holds up, Japan is inching back toward positive rates after 30 years underwater. If the cycle cracks, this move reverses fast, and the BoJ returns to its old instinct of cutting hard, stabilize the curve, fight deflation at all costs.
That’s the real takeaway…Japan is trying to leave the zero rate world behind, but the exit ramp is narrow. One global downturn, and they’re right back in the old playbook.
tweet
Japan’s 10 Year Is Ringing An Alarm Bell And Here’s What It Really Means
Japan’s 10 year yield pushing toward 1.9% in Japan it’s a seismic shift. For the better part of 30 years, that bond wasn’t a market instrument, it was a policy prop. The BoJ pinned it near zero, bought most of the market, and treated the yield as more of a message than a price.
Now it’s acting like a real bond again. And this sudden climb is the market saying you can’t hold back the tide forever.
Inflation has stuck around. Japan’s debt load is enormous. And with the BoJ stepping back from yield curve control, investors are finally demanding something closer to a real return. The whole curve 2 year, 5 year, 10 year, 30 year is lifting in a way Japan hasn’t seen since before the global financial crisis.
This isn’t a clean normalization story. It’s the market testing how far Japan can walk away from three decades of emergency style policy before something snaps.
What Happens If the Global Cycle Breaks?
Here’s the critical part no one wants to talk about: this shift only holds if the world stays afloat.
If the global economy rolls over into a real recession or worse, a deflationary shock…Japan will blink first. No country is more scarred by deflation. If growth cracks, trade slows, and global prices fall, the BoJ won’t sit back and watch yields drift upward while the domestic economy sinks.
They’ll push rates back toward the floor. They’ll revive bond buying. They may not bring back the old, rigid yield caps, but they’ll throw enough tools at the curve to keep borrowing costs from choking the system.
The difference this time is they know the side effects with broken bond liquidity, weak banks, a perpetually soft yen that can become a liability if import costs spike. So the rescue will be messier, more improvised, but still inevitable.
The Real Message Behind the Move
So today’s 10 year spike isn’t Japan saying they love high rates now. It’s the market asking how long can you sustain this without breaking something?
If the global cycle holds up, Japan is inching back toward positive rates after 30 years underwater. If the cycle cracks, this move reverses fast, and the BoJ returns to its old instinct of cutting hard, stabilize the curve, fight deflation at all costs.
That’s the real takeaway…Japan is trying to leave the zero rate world behind, but the exit ramp is narrow. One global downturn, and they’re right back in the old playbook.
BREAKING: Japan's 10Y Government Bond Yield surges to 1.84%, its highest level since April 2008.
This chart is concerning to say the least. https://t.co/fBkMMyBnqy tweet
Offshore
Photo
EndGame Macro
Japan’s 10 Year Is Ringing An Alarm Bell And Here’s What It Really Means
Japan’s 10 year yield pushing toward 1.9% in Japan is a seismic shift. For the better part of 30 years, that bond wasn’t a market instrument, it was a policy prop. The BoJ pinned it near zero, bought most of the market, and treated the yield as more of a message than a price.
Now it’s acting like a real bond again. And this sudden climb is the market saying you can’t hold back the tide forever.
Inflation has stuck around. Japan’s debt load is enormous. And with the BoJ stepping back from yield curve control, investors are finally demanding something closer to a real return. The whole curve 2 year, 5 year, 10 year, 30 year is lifting in a way Japan hasn’t seen since before the global financial crisis.
This isn’t a clean normalization story. It’s the market testing how far Japan can walk away from three decades of emergency style policy before something snaps.
What Happens If the Global Cycle Breaks?
Here’s the critical part no one wants to talk about: this shift only holds if the world stays afloat.
If the global economy rolls over into a real recession or worse, a deflationary shock…Japan will blink first. No country is more scarred by deflation. If growth cracks, trade slows, and global prices fall, the BoJ won’t sit back and watch yields drift upward while the domestic economy sinks.
They’ll push rates back toward the floor. They’ll revive bond buying. They may not bring back the old, rigid yield caps, but they’ll throw enough tools at the curve to keep borrowing costs from choking the system.
The difference this time is they know the side effects with broken bond liquidity, weak banks, a perpetually soft yen that can become a liability if import costs spike. So the rescue will be messier, more improvised, but still inevitable.
The Real Message Behind the Move
So today’s 10 year spike isn’t Japan saying they love high rates now. It’s the market asking how long can you sustain this without breaking something?
If the global cycle holds up, Japan is inching back toward positive rates after 30 years underwater. If the cycle cracks, this move reverses fast, and the BoJ returns to its old instinct of cutting hard, stabilize the curve, fight deflation at all costs.
That’s the real takeaway…Japan is trying to leave the zero rate world behind, but the exit ramp is narrow. One global downturn, and they’re right back in the old playbook.
tweet
Japan’s 10 Year Is Ringing An Alarm Bell And Here’s What It Really Means
Japan’s 10 year yield pushing toward 1.9% in Japan is a seismic shift. For the better part of 30 years, that bond wasn’t a market instrument, it was a policy prop. The BoJ pinned it near zero, bought most of the market, and treated the yield as more of a message than a price.
Now it’s acting like a real bond again. And this sudden climb is the market saying you can’t hold back the tide forever.
Inflation has stuck around. Japan’s debt load is enormous. And with the BoJ stepping back from yield curve control, investors are finally demanding something closer to a real return. The whole curve 2 year, 5 year, 10 year, 30 year is lifting in a way Japan hasn’t seen since before the global financial crisis.
This isn’t a clean normalization story. It’s the market testing how far Japan can walk away from three decades of emergency style policy before something snaps.
What Happens If the Global Cycle Breaks?
Here’s the critical part no one wants to talk about: this shift only holds if the world stays afloat.
If the global economy rolls over into a real recession or worse, a deflationary shock…Japan will blink first. No country is more scarred by deflation. If growth cracks, trade slows, and global prices fall, the BoJ won’t sit back and watch yields drift upward while the domestic economy sinks.
They’ll push rates back toward the floor. They’ll revive bond buying. They may not bring back the old, rigid yield caps, but they’ll throw enough tools at the curve to keep borrowing costs from choking the system.
The difference this time is they know the side effects with broken bond liquidity, weak banks, a perpetually soft yen that can become a liability if import costs spike. So the rescue will be messier, more improvised, but still inevitable.
The Real Message Behind the Move
So today’s 10 year spike isn’t Japan saying they love high rates now. It’s the market asking how long can you sustain this without breaking something?
If the global cycle holds up, Japan is inching back toward positive rates after 30 years underwater. If the cycle cracks, this move reverses fast, and the BoJ returns to its old instinct of cutting hard, stabilize the curve, fight deflation at all costs.
That’s the real takeaway…Japan is trying to leave the zero rate world behind, but the exit ramp is narrow. One global downturn, and they’re right back in the old playbook.
BREAKING: Japan's 10Y Government Bond Yield surges to 1.84%, its highest level since April 2008.
This chart is concerning to say the least. https://t.co/fBkMMyBnqy tweet
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lary fink right now
https://t.co/zQ3eR3xxfK
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lary fink right now
https://t.co/zQ3eR3xxfK
JUST IN: BlackRock says Bitcoin ETFs are its top source of revenue tweet
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When you tell your friends to buy the dip, but the dip keeps dipping https://t.co/PUKkdfzCK9
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When you tell your friends to buy the dip, but the dip keeps dipping https://t.co/PUKkdfzCK9
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