Offshore
Photo
EndGame Macro
When Oil Falls, Bitcoin Slips, and Metals Rise Something Bigger Is Shifting
When you line everything up from Powell’s Jackson Hole speech to now, the pattern is surprisingly clean. Silver is running away from the pack. Gold’s not far behind. Stocks are grinding higher but not exploding. The dollar hasn’t moved. Oil has slipped. Bitcoin has fallen apart. That mix alone tells you this isn’t an inflation story. It’s something quieter.
Silver leading while oil and Bitcoin sink is the market’s way of saying…”We’re not fighting runaway prices anymore, we’re settling into a slower, cooler environment.” In inflationary periods, oil is usually the star and the dollar weakens. Here, oil is down and the dollar is steady. And Bitcoin the thing people pile into when liquidity is overflowing is one of the worst performers. That’s a very different tone.
Why This Leans Deflationary
Start with energy. If the market truly believed we were headed into another inflation surge, oil wouldn’t be sitting down near the lows of this whole window. It would be ripping. Instead, Brent looks like it’s pricing weaker demand and a softer global outlook. That’s usually what happens when people expect slower nominal growth, not faster inflation.
Then look at the split between Bitcoin and the metals. In inflation waves, Bitcoin normally outperforms everything, it feeds off easy money and excess liquidity. But here it’s been steadily bleeding lower while silver is up almost 50%. That’s capital shifting away from speculative inflation hedges and toward hard assets that hold up in a low growth, low rate world. Silver is benefiting from that shift, and from its link to solar, electronics, and real economic activity.
And the dollar matters too. When inflation is the problem, the dollar weakens because real yields fall and capital looks elsewhere. But the dollar here is basically flat. Metals aren’t rising because the dollar is collapsing, they’re rising in spite of it, which is a very different message.
Put together, this chart just reinforces what the gold to silver ratio was already hinting at: the panic around inflation has faded, and the market is quietly rotating into assets that fit a slow, disinflationary backdrop. It’s not the feel of a boom. It’s the feel of a system cooling down, easing off the extremes, and preparing for a long, softer stretch where real assets with utility not speculative fireworks lead the way.
Credit to @robin_j_brooks for the chart.
tweet
When Oil Falls, Bitcoin Slips, and Metals Rise Something Bigger Is Shifting
When you line everything up from Powell’s Jackson Hole speech to now, the pattern is surprisingly clean. Silver is running away from the pack. Gold’s not far behind. Stocks are grinding higher but not exploding. The dollar hasn’t moved. Oil has slipped. Bitcoin has fallen apart. That mix alone tells you this isn’t an inflation story. It’s something quieter.
Silver leading while oil and Bitcoin sink is the market’s way of saying…”We’re not fighting runaway prices anymore, we’re settling into a slower, cooler environment.” In inflationary periods, oil is usually the star and the dollar weakens. Here, oil is down and the dollar is steady. And Bitcoin the thing people pile into when liquidity is overflowing is one of the worst performers. That’s a very different tone.
Why This Leans Deflationary
Start with energy. If the market truly believed we were headed into another inflation surge, oil wouldn’t be sitting down near the lows of this whole window. It would be ripping. Instead, Brent looks like it’s pricing weaker demand and a softer global outlook. That’s usually what happens when people expect slower nominal growth, not faster inflation.
Then look at the split between Bitcoin and the metals. In inflation waves, Bitcoin normally outperforms everything, it feeds off easy money and excess liquidity. But here it’s been steadily bleeding lower while silver is up almost 50%. That’s capital shifting away from speculative inflation hedges and toward hard assets that hold up in a low growth, low rate world. Silver is benefiting from that shift, and from its link to solar, electronics, and real economic activity.
And the dollar matters too. When inflation is the problem, the dollar weakens because real yields fall and capital looks elsewhere. But the dollar here is basically flat. Metals aren’t rising because the dollar is collapsing, they’re rising in spite of it, which is a very different message.
Put together, this chart just reinforces what the gold to silver ratio was already hinting at: the panic around inflation has faded, and the market is quietly rotating into assets that fit a slow, disinflationary backdrop. It’s not the feel of a boom. It’s the feel of a system cooling down, easing off the extremes, and preparing for a long, softer stretch where real assets with utility not speculative fireworks lead the way.
Credit to @robin_j_brooks for the chart.
tweet
Offshore
Video
EndGame Macro
Why Record Black Friday Sales Doesn’t Mean What It Sounds Like
These big Black Friday numbers get thrown around every year, but they’re a lot less impressive once you strip out the marketing glow. A 9% jump in online spending doesn’t automatically mean the consumer is strong, it mostly means prices are higher. If everything costs more, you can hit a “record” without people actually buying more. In fact, Salesforce hinted at it directly…shoppers spent more dollars but walked away with fewer items. That’s not a boom, that’s inflation doing the math for you.
How Households Are Actually Paying
Another piece that gets ignored is how people are funding this spending. A lot of the surge is being pushed through credit cards and buy now, pay later. That’s not the behavior of a confident, cash flush consumer. It’s people stretching just to keep holiday traditions alive in a more expensive world. You can get a big headline number today, but it comes with a tab of higher balances, rising delinquencies, and less room to maneuver later.
The Black Friday That Isn’t Really Black Friday Anymore
And the whole event has bled into a month long promotion cycle. It’s not one frantic day where demand explodes, it’s “Black Friday Week” or even “Black November.” Retailers stretch deals across weeks to coax cautious shoppers into spending. So some of this record volume isn’t new demand at all; it’s just December spending pulled forward and repackaged into a one day victory lap.
Once you see all that, the headline loses its shine. It’s not a clean read on consumer strength, it’s a mix of higher prices, borrowed money, and a sale window that keeps getting longer. Underneath the surface, it looks a lot more like people trying to keep up, not people breaking out.
tweet
Why Record Black Friday Sales Doesn’t Mean What It Sounds Like
These big Black Friday numbers get thrown around every year, but they’re a lot less impressive once you strip out the marketing glow. A 9% jump in online spending doesn’t automatically mean the consumer is strong, it mostly means prices are higher. If everything costs more, you can hit a “record” without people actually buying more. In fact, Salesforce hinted at it directly…shoppers spent more dollars but walked away with fewer items. That’s not a boom, that’s inflation doing the math for you.
How Households Are Actually Paying
Another piece that gets ignored is how people are funding this spending. A lot of the surge is being pushed through credit cards and buy now, pay later. That’s not the behavior of a confident, cash flush consumer. It’s people stretching just to keep holiday traditions alive in a more expensive world. You can get a big headline number today, but it comes with a tab of higher balances, rising delinquencies, and less room to maneuver later.
The Black Friday That Isn’t Really Black Friday Anymore
And the whole event has bled into a month long promotion cycle. It’s not one frantic day where demand explodes, it’s “Black Friday Week” or even “Black November.” Retailers stretch deals across weeks to coax cautious shoppers into spending. So some of this record volume isn’t new demand at all; it’s just December spending pulled forward and repackaged into a one day victory lap.
Once you see all that, the headline loses its shine. It’s not a clean read on consumer strength, it’s a mix of higher prices, borrowed money, and a sale window that keeps getting longer. Underneath the surface, it looks a lot more like people trying to keep up, not people breaking out.
U.S. BLACK FRIDAY SALES HIT RECORD HIGH
U.S. online Black Friday sales reached a record $11.8 billion, up 9.1% from last year, according to Adobe Analytics. Adobe expects Americans to spend $5.5 billion on Saturday and $5.9 billion on Sunday.
Salesforce reported $18 billion in total Black Friday spending, with luxury apparel and accessories among the top sellers. Despite higher spending, shoppers bought fewer items due to rising prices.
In-store traffic was quieter as many consumers worried about overspending amid inflation and economic uncertainty.
Cyber Monday is projected to lead the season with $14.2 billion in online sales, Adobe said. tweet
Offshore
Video
EndGame Macro
Once you recognize how carefully the narrative around the consumer is shaped, something shifts. You start to see that so much of modern economic life is about confidence, sentiment, and the stories we’re encouraged to believe so the machine keeps turning.
There’s a whole architecture built around keeping people optimistic enough to spend, even when the underlying reality is weakening. And once that clicks, you can’t slip back into the old innocence. Every headline feels a little different. Every record number carries an asterisk. You begin to ask…is this information, or is this maintenance of belief?
It can feel a little bleak at first, realizing how much of the system depends on managing perception rather than confronting truth. But that awareness is also a form of protection. It keeps you from drifting with the crowd, from trusting signals that no longer reflect reality, from being the last one buying into a narrative long after the foundations have cracked.
tweet
Once you recognize how carefully the narrative around the consumer is shaped, something shifts. You start to see that so much of modern economic life is about confidence, sentiment, and the stories we’re encouraged to believe so the machine keeps turning.
There’s a whole architecture built around keeping people optimistic enough to spend, even when the underlying reality is weakening. And once that clicks, you can’t slip back into the old innocence. Every headline feels a little different. Every record number carries an asterisk. You begin to ask…is this information, or is this maintenance of belief?
It can feel a little bleak at first, realizing how much of the system depends on managing perception rather than confronting truth. But that awareness is also a form of protection. It keeps you from drifting with the crowd, from trusting signals that no longer reflect reality, from being the last one buying into a narrative long after the foundations have cracked.
tweet
Offshore
Photo
Fiscal.ai
Sprouts Farmers Market has nearly double the operating margins of any other public grocery chain.
$SFM: 7.7%
$WMT: 4.2%
$COST: 3.8%
$KR: 2.7%
$ACI: 1.9%
$GO: 1.5% https://t.co/ILiolSQvqk
tweet
Sprouts Farmers Market has nearly double the operating margins of any other public grocery chain.
$SFM: 7.7%
$WMT: 4.2%
$COST: 3.8%
$KR: 2.7%
$ACI: 1.9%
$GO: 1.5% https://t.co/ILiolSQvqk
tweet
Offshore
Video
EndGame Macro
Take pride in the things most people overlook, because that’s where the real foundation gets built. There’s nothing wrong with driving the old car you own outright instead of chasing a payment. There’s nothing wrong with cooking at home, stretching leftovers, or sharing a crowded apartment if it means you’re keeping your independence and stacking the resources that matter later. These choices aren’t signs of being behind, they’re signs you’re thinking long term.
And the truth is, happiness rarely comes from the shiny finish line people imagine. It comes from the pursuit itself…the chase, the small wins, the discipline, the moments when you know you’re sacrificing now to create something better later. When you start seeing the journey as the thing to enjoy, all those unimpressive decisions suddenly feel meaningful. They’re not signs of struggle. They’re signs that you’re walking your path with intention, building real freedom one choice at a time.
tweet
Take pride in the things most people overlook, because that’s where the real foundation gets built. There’s nothing wrong with driving the old car you own outright instead of chasing a payment. There’s nothing wrong with cooking at home, stretching leftovers, or sharing a crowded apartment if it means you’re keeping your independence and stacking the resources that matter later. These choices aren’t signs of being behind, they’re signs you’re thinking long term.
And the truth is, happiness rarely comes from the shiny finish line people imagine. It comes from the pursuit itself…the chase, the small wins, the discipline, the moments when you know you’re sacrificing now to create something better later. When you start seeing the journey as the thing to enjoy, all those unimpressive decisions suddenly feel meaningful. They’re not signs of struggle. They’re signs that you’re walking your path with intention, building real freedom one choice at a time.
tweet
Offshore
Photo
WealthyReadings
Dropped my $TMDX valuation model to subs. Still a buy after its 30% rally?
We're going over the numbers & the growth verticals.
🔹U.S. market & next-gen OCS
🔹European expansion
🔹Kidney OCS
🔹& more
Concluding on my investing plan for my biggest position. Link's in bio. https://t.co/YxwkzEjQKg
tweet
Dropped my $TMDX valuation model to subs. Still a buy after its 30% rally?
We're going over the numbers & the growth verticals.
🔹U.S. market & next-gen OCS
🔹European expansion
🔹Kidney OCS
🔹& more
Concluding on my investing plan for my biggest position. Link's in bio. https://t.co/YxwkzEjQKg
tweet
Offshore
Photo
App Economy Insights
What are you watching this week?
• Monday: $MDB
• Tuesday: $ASAN $CRWD $GTLB $MRVL $OKTA
• Wednesday: $CRM $SNOW $PATH $AI $HQY
• Thursday: $IOT $LULU $RBRK $S $DOCU $HPE
All visualized in our newsletter. https://t.co/iesAsbjVUW
tweet
What are you watching this week?
• Monday: $MDB
• Tuesday: $ASAN $CRWD $GTLB $MRVL $OKTA
• Wednesday: $CRM $SNOW $PATH $AI $HQY
• Thursday: $IOT $LULU $RBRK $S $DOCU $HPE
All visualized in our newsletter. https://t.co/iesAsbjVUW
tweet
Offshore
Photo
Fiscal.ai
What would stop Uber from continuing to grow this number?
$UBER https://t.co/MDudp6N6Mt
tweet
What would stop Uber from continuing to grow this number?
$UBER https://t.co/MDudp6N6Mt
tweet
Offshore
Photo
EndGame Macro
The Clock Is Ticking: Why the Fed Must Cut Faster Than Anyone Admits
This is the invoice for keeping rates too high for too long. For more than a decade, the Fed made easy money on its bond book and sent steady remittances back to Treasury. That’s why the line sits flat. But when they slammed rates to 5% while still holding trillions of low yielding QE bonds, the whole machine flipped. Interest on reserves and RRPs surged, and the Fed started losing money in real time. Since the Fed can’t go bankrupt, it just stops paying Treasury and stacks the losses in a sort of accounting purgatory. That vertical drop roughly $240 billion is money the government will never see unless the Fed earns its way out over years.
Why This Moment Is More Dangerous Than It Looks
If everything else in the economy were humming, you might chalk this up to the cost of fighting inflation. But the backdrop is weakening in all the places that matter. Auto, card, and student loan delinquencies are climbing. Office real estate is deeply stressed. Credit scores are falling nationwide. Young workers can’t find stable footing. And the 2026 refinancing wall looms: trillions of government and commercial debt that must be rolled at rates far above the ones they were born into.
This is the early outline of a demand slowdown and a potential debt deflation setup. High nominal rates in that environment don’t stabilize anything. They just make every dollar of debt heavier as incomes soften. That’s how economies quietly drift into deflationary spirals.
Why the Fed Needs to Move Faster Than Anyone Thinks
This is why they’ve already cut twice, why QT ends December 1st, and why they’re redirecting MBS runoff into T-bills. They’re trying to create just enough breathing room to prevent a funding accident while pretending everything is fine. But the truth is simple: the longer they leave rates here, the more the real economy including households, banks, and the Treasury itself buckles under the weight.
The narrative says slow, steady cuts.
The reality is they may not have that luxury.
If deflation is the real risk, they can’t wait for the data to confirm it. By the time it shows up cleanly in CPI, the damage is already done. The Fed needs to cut faster than consensus expects not to juice markets, but to keep the system from tightening itself through rising delinquencies, collapsing credit quality, and a refinancing wall that gets more dangerous with every month of high rates.
The recent flattening in the chart is the first sign the Fed knows the clock is ticking. Either they bring rates down on their own terms, or the economy will force a far uglier adjustment later.
tweet
The Clock Is Ticking: Why the Fed Must Cut Faster Than Anyone Admits
This is the invoice for keeping rates too high for too long. For more than a decade, the Fed made easy money on its bond book and sent steady remittances back to Treasury. That’s why the line sits flat. But when they slammed rates to 5% while still holding trillions of low yielding QE bonds, the whole machine flipped. Interest on reserves and RRPs surged, and the Fed started losing money in real time. Since the Fed can’t go bankrupt, it just stops paying Treasury and stacks the losses in a sort of accounting purgatory. That vertical drop roughly $240 billion is money the government will never see unless the Fed earns its way out over years.
Why This Moment Is More Dangerous Than It Looks
If everything else in the economy were humming, you might chalk this up to the cost of fighting inflation. But the backdrop is weakening in all the places that matter. Auto, card, and student loan delinquencies are climbing. Office real estate is deeply stressed. Credit scores are falling nationwide. Young workers can’t find stable footing. And the 2026 refinancing wall looms: trillions of government and commercial debt that must be rolled at rates far above the ones they were born into.
This is the early outline of a demand slowdown and a potential debt deflation setup. High nominal rates in that environment don’t stabilize anything. They just make every dollar of debt heavier as incomes soften. That’s how economies quietly drift into deflationary spirals.
Why the Fed Needs to Move Faster Than Anyone Thinks
This is why they’ve already cut twice, why QT ends December 1st, and why they’re redirecting MBS runoff into T-bills. They’re trying to create just enough breathing room to prevent a funding accident while pretending everything is fine. But the truth is simple: the longer they leave rates here, the more the real economy including households, banks, and the Treasury itself buckles under the weight.
The narrative says slow, steady cuts.
The reality is they may not have that luxury.
If deflation is the real risk, they can’t wait for the data to confirm it. By the time it shows up cleanly in CPI, the damage is already done. The Fed needs to cut faster than consensus expects not to juice markets, but to keep the system from tightening itself through rising delinquencies, collapsing credit quality, and a refinancing wall that gets more dangerous with every month of high rates.
The recent flattening in the chart is the first sign the Fed knows the clock is ticking. Either they bring rates down on their own terms, or the economy will force a far uglier adjustment later.
Fed has finally stopped the losses, largely b/c IoR has dropped and RRPs are drained while average yield on balance sheet is steadily rising as low-yield assets mature, placed w/ higher-yielding ones; Fed is still over $240 billion away from sending Treasury a single dime: https://t.co/15edllE1iR tweet