Wasteland Capital
Retail check 2: $ANF +38% $KSS +43% today post earnings due to major sales acceleration, solid margins & guide. Now also strong Q acceleration from $URBN.
The “weak consumer” narrative? In shambles.
Actual data winning over poor macro takes & dumb excuses for bad execution.
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Retail check 2: $ANF +38% $KSS +43% today post earnings due to major sales acceleration, solid margins & guide. Now also strong Q acceleration from $URBN.
The “weak consumer” narrative? In shambles.
Actual data winning over poor macro takes & dumb excuses for bad execution.
Retail check: KILLER earnings reports from $ROST and $GAP, after the blow-out from $WMT yesterday. All showed strong acceleration across the board in Q3, and guidance was even stronger. Definitely no weakness!
Well-managed companies killing it, dumb ones blaming “the consumer”. tweet
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Wasteland Capital (@ecommerceshares) on X
Retail check: KILLER earnings reports from $ROST and $GAP, after the blow-out from $WMT yesterday. All showed strong acceleration across the board in Q3, and guidance was even stronger. Definitely no weakness!
Well-managed companies killing it, dumb ones…
Well-managed companies killing it, dumb ones…
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App Economy Insights
How They Make Money
📊 November Report is out!
100+ companies visualized
Download the full report 👇
https://t.co/g1hcWBkQcx
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How They Make Money
📊 November Report is out!
100+ companies visualized
Download the full report 👇
https://t.co/g1hcWBkQcx
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Offshore
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App Economy Insights
Our friends at @fiscal_ai just dropped a Black Friday deal!
It’s our go-to place to research new stock ideas.
They rarely offer a discount, so we don't want our readers to miss it.
30% off all paid plans until Monday. https://t.co/QHkdbjwjqk
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Our friends at @fiscal_ai just dropped a Black Friday deal!
It’s our go-to place to research new stock ideas.
They rarely offer a discount, so we don't want our readers to miss it.
30% off all paid plans until Monday. https://t.co/QHkdbjwjqk
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Offshore
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EndGame Macro
RT @onechancefreedm: @DavidWRiggs I don’t see it as liquidity strain. It’s just the only way you can promise 10.5% when safe assets yield 3% is by taking people’s deposits and putting them into much riskier bets. This is how Alex Mashinsky went to jail who Peter Schiff is calling out here. https://t.co/n72izGtv4N
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RT @onechancefreedm: @DavidWRiggs I don’t see it as liquidity strain. It’s just the only way you can promise 10.5% when safe assets yield 3% is by taking people’s deposits and putting them into much riskier bets. This is how Alex Mashinsky went to jail who Peter Schiff is calling out here. https://t.co/n72izGtv4N
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App Economy Insights
📺 US TV Time October 2025:
Streaming 45.7% (+5.2pp Y/Y).
• YouTube 12.9% (+2.3pp Y/Y).
• Netflix 8.0% (+0.5pp Y/Y).
• Disney apps 4.8% (flat Y/Y).
• Prime Video 3.8% (+0.3pp Y/Y).
• Roku Channel 2.8% (+1.0pp Y/Y).
$GOOG $NFLX $AMZN $DIS $ROKU
Source: Nielsen https://t.co/v3buwSkAgG
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📺 US TV Time October 2025:
Streaming 45.7% (+5.2pp Y/Y).
• YouTube 12.9% (+2.3pp Y/Y).
• Netflix 8.0% (+0.5pp Y/Y).
• Disney apps 4.8% (flat Y/Y).
• Prime Video 3.8% (+0.3pp Y/Y).
• Roku Channel 2.8% (+1.0pp Y/Y).
$GOOG $NFLX $AMZN $DIS $ROKU
Source: Nielsen https://t.co/v3buwSkAgG
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Offshore
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EndGame Macro
The Moment the Credit Cycle and the Debt Wall Collided
That red bar really does say it all. You don’t jump from paying $20–30 billion every October to paying more than $100 billion unless the whole foundation has shifted. And it has. For over a decade, the U.S. leaned on short term debt issued at or near zero, and the cost never showed up because the rate environment made it painless. But once the Fed pushed rates high and only recently cut them to the current 3.75%–4.00% range, with an effective rate around 3.88% all that cheap debt began rolling into today’s pricing. October is a heavy coupon month, so the spike shows up fast. It’s not a one off. It’s the beginning of a more expensive era.
And it’s arriving at the worst possible moment. This isn’t landing on a strong economy. It’s hitting right as the credit cycle is softening. The interest chart isn’t separate from the economy. It’s part of the same story.
The Credit Cycle and the Debt Wall Are Converging
Zoom out and the recession pattern is obvious. Subprime delinquencies are back at stress levels. Office loans have never looked worse. Specialty lenders are disappearing. Banks are tightening across business and consumer credit. Corporate bankruptcies are the highest in fifteen years. Oil sliding under $60 signals weakening demand. And the bond market is flashing warnings everywhere.
These aren’t random signals. This is the chain you get when a tightening cycle goes too far. And now the blowout in interest expense is simply the government’s version of the same strain hitting households and businesses.
The debt wall makes the picture even sharper. Total debt is near $38 trillion. Roughly $11 trillion rolls within the next year. More than 20% of all Treasuries mature in fiscal 2025. By 2028, around 61% of the entire debt stock will have turned over. Over four years, about $28 trillion must be refinanced. It’s the largest repricing wave in modern history and it’s colliding with a weakening economy.
In a strong cycle, maybe higher rates were tolerable. But with delinquencies rising, credit tightening, layoffs picking up, and demand cooling, revenues will fall just as refinancing costs jump. That squeezes the government at the exact moment households and businesses are strained too.
Why This Speeds Up the Need for Cuts
This is why the current downturn accelerates the path to rate cuts. Once unemployment drifts toward the high 5% or 6%, the Fed loses the option of a gentle glide path. They get pushed into a real cutting cycle, something in the 200–300 basis point range, maybe faster if funding stress builds.
And you can already see the groundwork with the two 25 bp cuts in September and October, QT ending on December 1, and a new schedule of Treasury purchases starting December 11. Even with internal disagreement about a December cut, analysts expect another 25 bps.
Cuts will help the interest bill, but they come with tradeoffs like weaker revenues, wider deficits, and more reliance on financial repression. The challenge shifts from rates are too high to growth is too weak.
The Bottom Line
A long term fiscal concern has become a right now macro problem. The interest chart is the public sector version of the same stress building across credit, labor, lending, and corporate balance sheets. Both the private economy and the federal balance sheet are signaling the same thing: the current rate regime no longer fits the reality on the ground.
We’re already past the point where 5% policy rates make sense. The only question left is whether the Fed moves first or whether the economy forces them.
Either way, that red bar isn’t warning of trouble. It’s showing where the trouble started.
tweet
The Moment the Credit Cycle and the Debt Wall Collided
That red bar really does say it all. You don’t jump from paying $20–30 billion every October to paying more than $100 billion unless the whole foundation has shifted. And it has. For over a decade, the U.S. leaned on short term debt issued at or near zero, and the cost never showed up because the rate environment made it painless. But once the Fed pushed rates high and only recently cut them to the current 3.75%–4.00% range, with an effective rate around 3.88% all that cheap debt began rolling into today’s pricing. October is a heavy coupon month, so the spike shows up fast. It’s not a one off. It’s the beginning of a more expensive era.
And it’s arriving at the worst possible moment. This isn’t landing on a strong economy. It’s hitting right as the credit cycle is softening. The interest chart isn’t separate from the economy. It’s part of the same story.
The Credit Cycle and the Debt Wall Are Converging
Zoom out and the recession pattern is obvious. Subprime delinquencies are back at stress levels. Office loans have never looked worse. Specialty lenders are disappearing. Banks are tightening across business and consumer credit. Corporate bankruptcies are the highest in fifteen years. Oil sliding under $60 signals weakening demand. And the bond market is flashing warnings everywhere.
These aren’t random signals. This is the chain you get when a tightening cycle goes too far. And now the blowout in interest expense is simply the government’s version of the same strain hitting households and businesses.
The debt wall makes the picture even sharper. Total debt is near $38 trillion. Roughly $11 trillion rolls within the next year. More than 20% of all Treasuries mature in fiscal 2025. By 2028, around 61% of the entire debt stock will have turned over. Over four years, about $28 trillion must be refinanced. It’s the largest repricing wave in modern history and it’s colliding with a weakening economy.
In a strong cycle, maybe higher rates were tolerable. But with delinquencies rising, credit tightening, layoffs picking up, and demand cooling, revenues will fall just as refinancing costs jump. That squeezes the government at the exact moment households and businesses are strained too.
Why This Speeds Up the Need for Cuts
This is why the current downturn accelerates the path to rate cuts. Once unemployment drifts toward the high 5% or 6%, the Fed loses the option of a gentle glide path. They get pushed into a real cutting cycle, something in the 200–300 basis point range, maybe faster if funding stress builds.
And you can already see the groundwork with the two 25 bp cuts in September and October, QT ending on December 1, and a new schedule of Treasury purchases starting December 11. Even with internal disagreement about a December cut, analysts expect another 25 bps.
Cuts will help the interest bill, but they come with tradeoffs like weaker revenues, wider deficits, and more reliance on financial repression. The challenge shifts from rates are too high to growth is too weak.
The Bottom Line
A long term fiscal concern has become a right now macro problem. The interest chart is the public sector version of the same stress building across credit, labor, lending, and corporate balance sheets. Both the private economy and the federal balance sheet are signaling the same thing: the current rate regime no longer fits the reality on the ground.
We’re already past the point where 5% policy rates make sense. The only question left is whether the Fed moves first or whether the economy forces them.
Either way, that red bar isn’t warning of trouble. It’s showing where the trouble started.
folks.... https://t.co/sQQ84HC6vw tweet
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AkhenOsiris
Why does he say all this stuff when sports betting is like 90%+ of the volume on his platform?
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Why does he say all this stuff when sports betting is like 90%+ of the volume on his platform?
Most people don’t know this, but 100 years ago prediction markets were a major part of American finance. These weren’t fringe experiments. Wall Street ran massive, organized election markets that exceeded daily stock market volumes. Newspapers covered them constantly and treated them as the country’s main forecasting tool.
And today, it seems we have come full circle with Bloomberg reporting: “Prediction markets will be where information is aggregated and prices set, with the New York Stock Exchange and its ilk relegated to processing orders. To some extent this has already happened.”
Kalshi started from the idea that every major asset class has a financial market, stocks, credit, commodities, FX, but there wasn’t one for simple questions about the future that carry economic and social weight. If we could build that market, it could become one of the largest.
Stock traders already use Kalshi’s Tesla markets because it lets them isolate the drivers of a company and price each one cleanly, such as “Tesla deliveries this quarter” or “When will Tesla launch unsupervised FSD?”. Prediction markets let you disaggregate complex outcomes into probability-weighted components and build better financial models.
But that’s just the starting point. Prediction markets are a superset of every other market: weather risk, macro releases, elections, crypto, sports, geopolitics. They’re structurally uncapped.
All of finance will ultimately flow down from a single canonical source of truth: liquid markets that price the future directly. Prediction markets. tweet
AkhenOsiris
RT @obsidiancap1: 25% return in 4 wks since goog’s VP of infra Amin Vahdat went on pod banging drum about demand and TPU utilization…
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RT @obsidiancap1: 25% return in 4 wks since goog’s VP of infra Amin Vahdat went on pod banging drum about demand and TPU utilization…
How can ppl still think 1) there isn’t alpha in mega caps, and 2) all info is priced in?
$GOOG AI/infra VP went on pod right before earnings and publicly disclosed they are seeing “tremendous” demand and 100% utilization rates on TPUs
+8% AH on a $3 trillion mkt cap
(Yes I know non-cloud search beat too) tweet