𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞 𝐟𝐮𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐮𝐥𝐭𝐬.
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EndGame Macro
J.P. Morgan VS MicroStrategy Narrative
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WealthyReadings
It's very trendy to hit on Michael burry and other short sellers lately.

And it is a very stupid trend.

Short sellers lose in markets because those are designed to go up due to fiat expansions.

It doesn't mean their thesis are wrong or stupid, and we should always listen to the smart ones.

Burry is part of the smart ones. He's smarter and has access to more insights than all of us combined.

Don't make the mistake of thinking he's dumb. He's not. He made more money than all of us in one time, and has more guts than anyone on FinX as he held a multi million position in one of the most heated market of history.

He's better than 99.9% of us.

Having access to his thoughts is a chance. You don't have to agree with him nor follow his positions. But he will give you the best bear case on this market and allow you to work around it.

He's not someone to ignore.
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AkhenOsiris
OpenAI:

Jony Ive — the iconic Apple designer who united with OpenAI to create physical AI devices — revealed to longtime friend Laurene Powell Jobs in an onstage interview that his stealth project, already in prototype, will be unveiled within two years.

OpenAI CEO Sam Altman said during a joint interview at an Emerson Collective event that Ive's design is elegantly simple, with a touch of whimsy — which sounds very Apple-like.
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EndGame Macro
The Coming Twist in Housing: Lower Rates, But No Price Boom

This chart is basically telling us the housing market’s run into a wall. When you have almost 40% more sellers than buyers, it means the pool of people willing or able to buy at today’s prices and today’s mortgage rates has dried up. Not because people don’t want homes, but because the monthly payment math has stretched as far as it can go. Sellers are slowly returning because life forces them to: job changes, relocations, divorce, investors unwinding. Buyers, on the other hand, are hitting their limit.

Where Rates Would Need To Go

A 6.3% mortgage doesn’t feel buyable to most households. You might get some activity in the mid 5’s, but real, broad based demand usually needs something in the 4s. That’s the psychological line where people say, Okay, maybe this is workable again. But the problem is simple…if rates fall and prices jump, nothing really improves. You’re still stuck with the same unaffordable payment, just repackaged differently.

Why Lower Rates Alone Won’t Save This Market

And this is where my own view comes in. I think unemployment is going to rise and the broader economy is going to weaken from here through 2026. When people feel less secure about their jobs, they don’t rush into housing just because rates tick lower. They pull back. They wait. They protect cash. And that shift in psychology keeps demand capped, even in a falling rate environment.

In a world where mortgage rates fall but the labor market softens, you don’t get the usual price surge that comes with cheaper financing. Instead, you get prices that either stay flat or drift down because the one force stronger than low rates is fear of losing income.

That’s the only scenario where home prices don’t rise as rates fall…lower borrowing costs colliding with a weakening economy and rising unemployment.

And I think that’s exactly where we’re headed.
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WealthyReadings
It's very trendy to hit on Michael burry and other short sellers lately.

And it is a very stupid trend.

Short sellers lose in markets because those are designed to go up due to fiat expansions.

It doesn't mean their thesis are wrong or stupid, and we should always listen to the smart ones.

Burry is part of the smart ones. He's smarter and has access to more insights than all of us combined.

Don't make the mistake of thinking he's dumb. He's not. He made more money than all of us in one time, and has more guts than anyone on FinX as he held a multi million position in one of the most heated market of history.

He's better than 99.9% of us.

Having access to his thoughts is a chance. You don't have to agree with him nor follow his positions. But he will give you the best bear case on this market and allow you to work around it.

He's not someone to ignore.

JUST IN 🚨: Michael Burry, the man who has predicted 50 of the last 2 market crashes, has launched a Substack for $379/year - Barchart
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Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
What have I done 😂

Bill Ackman was on Fox Business this week saying “very high-quality businesses are showing up at very attractive levels”

He added that Pershing Square is approaching 15% cash & is “finishing due diligence on a company we’ve really wanted to own for years — now available at a bargain price”

Over the last several weeks, I’ve shared that many quality compounders are trading at the lower end of their 3-year valuation ranges and look attractive relative to their growth, durability, & moats

Before going any further I want to be clear: 𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐫𝐲𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐭 𝐚𝐛𝐨𝐮𝐭 𝐰𝐡𝐢𝐜𝐡 𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐩𝐚𝐧𝐲 𝐁𝐢𝐥𝐥 𝐜𝐨𝐮𝐥𝐝 𝐛𝐞 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐬𝐢𝐝𝐞𝐫𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐢𝐬 𝐩𝐮𝐫𝐞𝐥𝐲 𝐬𝐩𝐞𝐜𝐮𝐥𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐞

I simply enjoy analyzing great investors and their frameworks, & @BillAckman has been one I’ve respected for years

Now lets guess 🤔

I believe the company is potentially Mastercard $MA & here’s why:

@KoyfinCharts recently shared Bill’s investment principles & $MA checks off every box

𝟏. 𝐊𝐞𝐲 𝐛𝐮𝐬𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐬𝐬 𝐜𝐡𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐜𝐭𝐞𝐫𝐢𝐬𝐭𝐢𝐜𝐬

✅Simple predictable FCF generative business

• $MA runs a toll-road-like payments network along with value added services & solutions & maintains >50% FCF margins

✅Formiddable barriers to entry

• $MA operates in a duopoly — a new competitor would need global merchant onboarding, bank integrations, regulators’ approval, & brand trust, among other things

✅Limited exposure to extrinsic factors that we cannot control

• $MA revenue is very stable especially over long periods & the company does not lend money, so it has no direct credit or balance-sheet risk

✅Generally low financial leverage levels

• $MA uses modest conservative leverage with strong interest-coverage ratios & stable cash generation

✅Minimal capital markets dependency

• Given its predictable recurring-like FCF, $MA is a self-funded business

✅Typically highly liquid mid & large cap companies

• $MA has a $488B market cap

𝟐. 𝐀𝐭𝐭𝐫𝐚𝐜𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐞 𝐯𝐚𝐥𝐮𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧

✅Fair price as is but a substantial discount to optimized value

• $MA trades for 29x (lower end of its 3 year range & a PEG <2.00)- Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
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Quiver Quantitative
BREAKING: Representative Jared Moskowitz just filed new stock trades.

He bought up to $30K of stock in Taiwan Semicondcutor, $TSMC.

Moskowitz sits on the House Committee on Foreign Affairs.

Full trade list up on Quiver. https://t.co/56WhL0mZgT
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EndGame Macro
This Chart Says More About the Economy Than Any Headline

When you look at this lumber chart, the surprising thing isn’t just that prices are falling, it’s how indifferent the market is to the tariff backdrop. A new 10% tariff kicked in on October 14th, 2025, and Canadian lumber is effectively facing a 35% tariff load. In a healthy, growing economy, that kind of supply side tax would have pushed prices sharply higher. But instead, lumber futures slid right back to the same lows we saw a year ago and are now sitting on a clear double bottom.

That price action tells you everything: the market doesn’t believe demand is strong enough for tariffs to matter. Businesses are the ones who actually pay tariffs upfront, and when the consumer is slowing down, those businesses can’t pass the cost along. So futures don’t price in higher costs ahead, they price in weaker demand ahead.

Why Demand Is Overpowering the Tariff Story

The best confirmation comes from the ground level: Home Depot’s own language. They’re saying customers are fatigued, pulling back from home improvement projects, and trading down to cheaper materials. That’s exactly the kind of environment where lumber struggles regardless of tariffs. Big projects get delayed. Renovations get scaled back. Builders order only what they must, not what they want.

When demand is rolling over like that, even a tariff shock gets absorbed by distributors and mills rather than passed on to buyers and the futures market sees that instantly.

How the Chart Fits the Cycle

That’s why this chart looks the way it does. Lumber isn’t responding to the headline or the policy change. It’s responding to the psychological turn in housing and renovation. Futures traders are asking one simple question…how much lumber will America actually need in 2026 if consumers remain cautious and the economic outlook softens?

And their answer is written right there in the price…less than before.

So the chart isn’t ignoring the tariffs. it’s overriding them. It’s saying the slowdown in construction, the hesitation from homeowners, and the fatigue that Home Depot is calling out are stronger forces than tax policy. In a tight demand environment, tariffs don’t lift prices. They just compress margins upstream while futures drift lower toward whatever level the market thinks matches the new, weaker reality.

Credit to @Barchart
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Quiver Quantitative
$GOOG has now risen 14% since this post, while the market has fallen.

BREAKING: Warren Buffet's Berkshire Hathaway just filed a portfolio update.

They opened a new $4.3B position in Google, $GOOG.

Full holdings up on Quiver, link below. https://t.co/RoJTmS5xhJ - Quiver Quantitative
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Quiver Quantitative
Markets are now giving a 75% chance of a rate cut at the next Fed meeting. https://t.co/IZiud12Z1q
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