Offshore
WealthyReadings I am still a buyer for a few handful reasons. 1. I believe the FED needs to continue to cut rates, and will in December. https://t.co/5joU9HUnh1 2. I believe in AI and that $NVDA isn't a fraud, and the data backs me up. https://t.co/jvzeGM3kwY…
d violence. But he forgets that algorythm are built to find fraud in 99% of cases.
But $NVDA is the 1%.
When revenue grows 60–80% YoY, it's normal for inventories, receivables, and payables to grow at least comparably in dollar terms. Maybe even slightly higher when added real-world constraints.
What matters is whether these metrics grow disproportionately relative to revenue.
And once normalized, $NVDA ratios are stable, which is consistent with a rapid ongoing expansion, not accounting games or demand collapse.
That being said, everything isn’t necessarily perfect. But again: algorithms are configured to gauge 99% of the market, so of course the 1% will raise red flags.
Add some organic grey cells, context and reality, and the picture is very different, even if the stock continues to fall.
The market is about emotions, not rationality. And X is great at sharing emotions, less for rationality.
Conclusion.
I might be proven wrong in time and $NVDA might be an accounting fraud. I personally continue to believe in the AI revolution, have my own concerns about the circular economy but did not find any indications that AI won't yield cash flow and that commitments can't be honored as of today.
I continue to be bullish. And shared all my moves and reasoning with subscribers yesterday.
The future is bright for those with a system. - WealthyReadings tweet
But $NVDA is the 1%.
When revenue grows 60–80% YoY, it's normal for inventories, receivables, and payables to grow at least comparably in dollar terms. Maybe even slightly higher when added real-world constraints.
What matters is whether these metrics grow disproportionately relative to revenue.
And once normalized, $NVDA ratios are stable, which is consistent with a rapid ongoing expansion, not accounting games or demand collapse.
That being said, everything isn’t necessarily perfect. But again: algorithms are configured to gauge 99% of the market, so of course the 1% will raise red flags.
Add some organic grey cells, context and reality, and the picture is very different, even if the stock continues to fall.
The market is about emotions, not rationality. And X is great at sharing emotions, less for rationality.
Conclusion.
I might be proven wrong in time and $NVDA might be an accounting fraud. I personally continue to believe in the AI revolution, have my own concerns about the circular economy but did not find any indications that AI won't yield cash flow and that commitments can't be honored as of today.
I continue to be bullish. And shared all my moves and reasoning with subscribers yesterday.
The future is bright for those with a system. - WealthyReadings tweet
Offshore
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App Economy Insights
AI skepticism is everywhere.
But $NVDA is showing the other side.
⚡️ Accelerated computing
🧠 Generative AI
🤖 Agentic + physical AI
And a $500B pipeline through 2026. 👇
https://t.co/8oyzzf4UOO
tweet
AI skepticism is everywhere.
But $NVDA is showing the other side.
⚡️ Accelerated computing
🧠 Generative AI
🤖 Agentic + physical AI
And a $500B pipeline through 2026. 👇
https://t.co/8oyzzf4UOO
tweet
Offshore
Photo
Fiscal.ai
Uber is currently trading at more than a 5% free cash flow yield.
Near its cheapest valuation ever.
Why wouldn't Uber work from here?
$UBER https://t.co/WdmQ6J7P9A
tweet
Uber is currently trading at more than a 5% free cash flow yield.
Near its cheapest valuation ever.
Why wouldn't Uber work from here?
$UBER https://t.co/WdmQ6J7P9A
tweet
EndGame Macro
Behind the $1 Trillion Revision And The Part No One Is Talking About
The CBO trimming the tariff related deficit reduction by a trillion dollars isn’t some big ideological shift. It’s mostly housekeeping. Since August, the administration has softened parts of the tariff package, rolling back certain rates, carving out more exemptions, and giving relief to allies on key items. Once you shrink the list of goods actually hit with the full force of the tariffs, the projected revenue naturally comes down.
The CBO also cleaned up its assumptions…more imports qualifying for USMCA’s lower rates, lower metal content in a bunch of products, and updated evidence showing foreign exporters eat a slice of the tariff by cutting prices. Put all of that together and the math moves. You go from a projected $4T in deficit reduction to $3T. That’s all this revision is.
But the real story isn’t the number. It’s what the number doesn’t include.
Tariffs Look Neater on Paper Than They Feel in the Real Economy
When you read the CBO’s update closely, there’s one line that jumps out… they haven’t yet modeled the broader economic impact of the tariffs.
That means the new forecast is purely fiscal, no accounting for how tariffs change behavior, demand, prices, or global trade flows. It’s basically the spreadsheet version of the story, not the lived version.
That’s where the connection to Smoot-Hawley comes in. Not because we’re repeating 1930, we’re not but because the pattern is familiar…big tariff moves layered onto an economy that’s already losing steam. Smoot-Hawley didn’t destroy the economy on its own; it accelerated weakness that was already there. It made a fragile situation worse by raising costs and triggering retaliation at a time when global demand was already soft.
Today’s world is different…flexible exchange rates, global supply chains, a Fed that can ease but the vulnerabilities rhyme. Tariffs may bring in revenue, but they also raise input costs, complicate supply chains, and pressure margins in a system that’s already strained. A fiscal win can still be an economic drag.
What It Means Looking Forward
The government might collect $3T in tariff revenue over a decade. But revenue isn’t the same as economic strength.
As conditions soften with slower growth, tighter credit, cautious businesses the cost side of tariffs starts to matter more than the revenue side. Smoot-Hawley’s lesson wasn’t that tariffs are always catastrophic. It was that tariffs hit harder when the economy is already tiring.
That’s the part of the story the CBO hasn’t quantified yet. And that’s the part that will matter most in the real world, long after
the revenue projections fade and the economic reality takes center stage.
tweet
Behind the $1 Trillion Revision And The Part No One Is Talking About
The CBO trimming the tariff related deficit reduction by a trillion dollars isn’t some big ideological shift. It’s mostly housekeeping. Since August, the administration has softened parts of the tariff package, rolling back certain rates, carving out more exemptions, and giving relief to allies on key items. Once you shrink the list of goods actually hit with the full force of the tariffs, the projected revenue naturally comes down.
The CBO also cleaned up its assumptions…more imports qualifying for USMCA’s lower rates, lower metal content in a bunch of products, and updated evidence showing foreign exporters eat a slice of the tariff by cutting prices. Put all of that together and the math moves. You go from a projected $4T in deficit reduction to $3T. That’s all this revision is.
But the real story isn’t the number. It’s what the number doesn’t include.
Tariffs Look Neater on Paper Than They Feel in the Real Economy
When you read the CBO’s update closely, there’s one line that jumps out… they haven’t yet modeled the broader economic impact of the tariffs.
That means the new forecast is purely fiscal, no accounting for how tariffs change behavior, demand, prices, or global trade flows. It’s basically the spreadsheet version of the story, not the lived version.
That’s where the connection to Smoot-Hawley comes in. Not because we’re repeating 1930, we’re not but because the pattern is familiar…big tariff moves layered onto an economy that’s already losing steam. Smoot-Hawley didn’t destroy the economy on its own; it accelerated weakness that was already there. It made a fragile situation worse by raising costs and triggering retaliation at a time when global demand was already soft.
Today’s world is different…flexible exchange rates, global supply chains, a Fed that can ease but the vulnerabilities rhyme. Tariffs may bring in revenue, but they also raise input costs, complicate supply chains, and pressure margins in a system that’s already strained. A fiscal win can still be an economic drag.
What It Means Looking Forward
The government might collect $3T in tariff revenue over a decade. But revenue isn’t the same as economic strength.
As conditions soften with slower growth, tighter credit, cautious businesses the cost side of tariffs starts to matter more than the revenue side. Smoot-Hawley’s lesson wasn’t that tariffs are always catastrophic. It was that tariffs hit harder when the economy is already tiring.
That’s the part of the story the CBO hasn’t quantified yet. And that’s the part that will matter most in the real world, long after
the revenue projections fade and the economic reality takes center stage.
The Congressional Budget Office slashed its estimate of longer-term US fiscal savings from President Donald Trump’s tariff hikes by $1 trillion, in a move that may deepen concerns about American borrowing needs https://t.co/zKYcT80U6x tweet
X (formerly Twitter)
Bloomberg (@business) on X
The Congressional Budget Office slashed its estimate of longer-term US fiscal savings from President Donald Trump’s tariff hikes by $1 trillion, in a move that may deepen concerns about American borrowing needs https://t.co/zKYcT80U6x
Offshore
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Quiver Quantitative
RT @joinautopilot: Yes it's called Congress Buys and run by the boys @QuiverQuant
https://t.co/nY3CNPyUmP
That's how to see how it's doing https://t.co/4ySKTWiDXs
tweet
RT @joinautopilot: Yes it's called Congress Buys and run by the boys @QuiverQuant
https://t.co/nY3CNPyUmP
That's how to see how it's doing https://t.co/4ySKTWiDXs
Has anyone made an ETF where I can just invest money and it'll auto-trade based on our "public servants'" trades? tweet
EndGame Macro
It’s hard to pretend this is normal. When both the jobs report and the CPI print disappear in the same month and for reasons that conveniently can’t be reconstructed you’re not just dealing with a delay. You’re dealing with a break in the story the economy is trying to tell. And the timing matters. We’ve had weakening payroll revisions, softer hiring, rising unemployment claims, and a labor market that’s clearly losing altitude. If October looked strong, they’d release whatever they had and note the caveats. Instead we get silence, which usually means the data leaned the wrong way and nobody wanted to own the headline. The real consequence is that markets are now forced to read the economy through second best indicators because the first best ones just vanished and that alone says more about the state of the labor market than the missing report ever would.
tweet
It’s hard to pretend this is normal. When both the jobs report and the CPI print disappear in the same month and for reasons that conveniently can’t be reconstructed you’re not just dealing with a delay. You’re dealing with a break in the story the economy is trying to tell. And the timing matters. We’ve had weakening payroll revisions, softer hiring, rising unemployment claims, and a labor market that’s clearly losing altitude. If October looked strong, they’d release whatever they had and note the caveats. Instead we get silence, which usually means the data leaned the wrong way and nobody wanted to own the headline. The real consequence is that markets are now forced to read the economy through second best indicators because the first best ones just vanished and that alone says more about the state of the labor market than the missing report ever would.
BREAKING: The US Labor Department announces that the October CPI inflation report has been CANCELLED. tweet
X (formerly Twitter)
The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) on X
BREAKING: The US Labor Department announces that the October CPI inflation report has been CANCELLED.
Offshore
Photo
EndGame Macro
For most of the past year, IBIT was basically a one way funnel with steady inflows, steady accumulation, the kind of flow that props up price even when sentiment wobbles. Now you’re seeing the opposite with a string of heavy outflows, capped by a record day, and it’s happening after a long stretch where the easy buyers already came in. That tells you the ETF is behaving like a source of supply. Some of that is macro stress, some of it is people raising cash, but the bigger point is that the structural bid that carried Bitcoin through the last leg is gone. From here, the market has to stand on real demand, not passive inflows and that’s always when things get more volatile and more honest.
tweet
For most of the past year, IBIT was basically a one way funnel with steady inflows, steady accumulation, the kind of flow that props up price even when sentiment wobbles. Now you’re seeing the opposite with a string of heavy outflows, capped by a record day, and it’s happening after a long stretch where the easy buyers already came in. That tells you the ETF is behaving like a source of supply. Some of that is macro stress, some of it is people raising cash, but the bigger point is that the structural bid that carried Bitcoin through the last leg is gone. From here, the market has to stand on real demand, not passive inflows and that’s always when things get more volatile and more honest.
‼️Investors are DUMPING Bitcoin funds at a RECORD pace:
Bitcoin ETF $IBIT saw -$523 MILLION in net outflows on Tuesday, the highest EVER.
In 5 days, investors withdrew over $1 BILLION from $IBIT.
Over the last 3 weeks, crypto funds have seen $3.2 BILLION in net outflows.. https://t.co/F6mKlwYUpR tweet
Offshore
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Fiscal.ai
So much for efficient markets.
Google (the world's most profitable company) has seen its valuation double in less than 8 months.
$GOOGL https://t.co/r74Osrm8WD
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So much for efficient markets.
Google (the world's most profitable company) has seen its valuation double in less than 8 months.
$GOOGL https://t.co/r74Osrm8WD
tweet
Offshore
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WealthyReadings
So... Is $NVDA a fraud? Is the bull market over? Is AI an hoax which won't generate any cash?
Or... Is this just another dip, maybe a bit longer and violent but worth buying like all others?
🚨BREAKING: The $610 Billion AI Ponzi Scheme Is Not A Ponzi Scheme
Here’s why $NVDA isn’t the disaster the algorithms - and the bears, want you to think it is. Far from it.
Shanaka’s argument claims that Nvidia’s rising inventory, receivables, and DSO suggest demand is slowing and the company is pushing more product than customers can absorb, in terms of need and payment.
In brief: no more demand nor cash to pay for their GPUs.
1. Rising Inventory ≠ Red Flag
Shanaka says rising inventory is evidence of weak demand, but ignores $NVDA pricing - and many other factors we'll talk about.
When unit prices double or triple, the same volume of hardware shows up as a larger dollar value in inventories.
You'll have more bananas for $1M that airplanes, right? Just like you'll have more H100 than GB200.
When we normalize inventory by revenue - or by units shipped, the trend is stable, suggesting this is a pricing effect, not a demand problem and rising inventory in volume.
This can also be illustrated with accounts receivable per revenue, which make the same point: when product prices increase, dollar-denominated metrics rise, so metrics taken individually may look bad but within context, the story looks normal.
That being said, many could point that even then, inventory is rising. To which we need to add context, something algorythms are incapable of.
2. Higher DSO & Supply Chain Constraints
DSO - which represents the time before being paid, rising slightly is consistent with real-world constraints.
$NVDA doesn’t just ship GPUs anymore; they ship racks, custom configurations, integrated systems… These use third-party components, which require more coordination, harder logistics, and can temporarily increase time before revenue recognition and therefore inventory.
Add to this the fact that foundries, as proven many times these quarters during $TSM & co earnings, run at full capacity, and you get even more delays.
More customization + constrained supply chains = longer installation cycles before revenue can be recognized and rising inventories until then.
This is an operational bottleneck, not a credit problem.
A move from 46 to 53 days is marginal especially considering this value has been roughly stable for three quarters.
3. Circular Economy
As for the claims about a circular economy and the same dollars being used across multiple companies, I have no counters but this: circular economies are normal, that’s how economies work.
It only becomes a problem if AI services do not generate enough cash to honor commitments.
Because that’s what those are: commitments, not booked revenues. If those commitments can be honored, then what is the problem?
4. Algorithms Don’t Understand Context
Shanaka claims that this was thankfully found by algorithm - and I can agree with him based on the market's behaviour and violence. But he forgets that algorythm are built to find fraud in 99% of cases.
But $NVDA is the 1%.
When revenue grows 60–80% YoY, it's normal for inventories, receivables, and payables to grow at least comparably in dollar terms. Maybe even slightly higher when added real-world constraints.
What matters is whether these metrics grow disproportionately relative to revenue.
And once normalized, $NVDA ratios are stable, which is consistent with a rapid ongoing expansion, not accounting games or demand collapse.
That being said, everything isn’t necessarily perfect. But again: algorithms are configured to gauge 99% of the market, so of course the 1% will raise red flags.
Add some organic grey cells, context and reality, and the picture is very different, even if the stock continues to fall.
The market is about emotions, not rationality. And X is great at sharing emotions, less fo[...]
So... Is $NVDA a fraud? Is the bull market over? Is AI an hoax which won't generate any cash?
Or... Is this just another dip, maybe a bit longer and violent but worth buying like all others?
🚨BREAKING: The $610 Billion AI Ponzi Scheme Is Not A Ponzi Scheme
Here’s why $NVDA isn’t the disaster the algorithms - and the bears, want you to think it is. Far from it.
Shanaka’s argument claims that Nvidia’s rising inventory, receivables, and DSO suggest demand is slowing and the company is pushing more product than customers can absorb, in terms of need and payment.
In brief: no more demand nor cash to pay for their GPUs.
1. Rising Inventory ≠ Red Flag
Shanaka says rising inventory is evidence of weak demand, but ignores $NVDA pricing - and many other factors we'll talk about.
When unit prices double or triple, the same volume of hardware shows up as a larger dollar value in inventories.
You'll have more bananas for $1M that airplanes, right? Just like you'll have more H100 than GB200.
When we normalize inventory by revenue - or by units shipped, the trend is stable, suggesting this is a pricing effect, not a demand problem and rising inventory in volume.
This can also be illustrated with accounts receivable per revenue, which make the same point: when product prices increase, dollar-denominated metrics rise, so metrics taken individually may look bad but within context, the story looks normal.
That being said, many could point that even then, inventory is rising. To which we need to add context, something algorythms are incapable of.
2. Higher DSO & Supply Chain Constraints
DSO - which represents the time before being paid, rising slightly is consistent with real-world constraints.
$NVDA doesn’t just ship GPUs anymore; they ship racks, custom configurations, integrated systems… These use third-party components, which require more coordination, harder logistics, and can temporarily increase time before revenue recognition and therefore inventory.
Add to this the fact that foundries, as proven many times these quarters during $TSM & co earnings, run at full capacity, and you get even more delays.
More customization + constrained supply chains = longer installation cycles before revenue can be recognized and rising inventories until then.
This is an operational bottleneck, not a credit problem.
A move from 46 to 53 days is marginal especially considering this value has been roughly stable for three quarters.
3. Circular Economy
As for the claims about a circular economy and the same dollars being used across multiple companies, I have no counters but this: circular economies are normal, that’s how economies work.
It only becomes a problem if AI services do not generate enough cash to honor commitments.
Because that’s what those are: commitments, not booked revenues. If those commitments can be honored, then what is the problem?
4. Algorithms Don’t Understand Context
Shanaka claims that this was thankfully found by algorithm - and I can agree with him based on the market's behaviour and violence. But he forgets that algorythm are built to find fraud in 99% of cases.
But $NVDA is the 1%.
When revenue grows 60–80% YoY, it's normal for inventories, receivables, and payables to grow at least comparably in dollar terms. Maybe even slightly higher when added real-world constraints.
What matters is whether these metrics grow disproportionately relative to revenue.
And once normalized, $NVDA ratios are stable, which is consistent with a rapid ongoing expansion, not accounting games or demand collapse.
That being said, everything isn’t necessarily perfect. But again: algorithms are configured to gauge 99% of the market, so of course the 1% will raise red flags.
Add some organic grey cells, context and reality, and the picture is very different, even if the stock continues to fall.
The market is about emotions, not rationality. And X is great at sharing emotions, less fo[...]
Offshore
WealthyReadings So... Is $NVDA a fraud? Is the bull market over? Is AI an hoax which won't generate any cash? Or... Is this just another dip, maybe a bit longer and violent but worth buying like all others? 🚨BREAKING: The $610 Billion AI Ponzi Scheme Is…
r rationality.
Conclusion.
I might be proven wrong in time and $NVDA might be an accounting fraud. I personally continue to believe in the AI revolution, have my own concerns about the circular economy but did not find any indications that AI won't yield cash flow and that commitments can't be honored as of today.
I continue to be bullish. And shared all my moves and reasoning with subscribers yesterday.
The future is bright for those with a system. - WealthyReadings tweet
Conclusion.
I might be proven wrong in time and $NVDA might be an accounting fraud. I personally continue to believe in the AI revolution, have my own concerns about the circular economy but did not find any indications that AI won't yield cash flow and that commitments can't be honored as of today.
I continue to be bullish. And shared all my moves and reasoning with subscribers yesterday.
The future is bright for those with a system. - WealthyReadings tweet
Offshore
Photo
AkhenOsiris
$CRWD
CRN EXCLUSIVE:
In an exclusive interview with CRN, Kurtz said he is now confident describing CrowdStrike, in no uncertain terms, as the first-ever “hyperscaler for security.”
“We’re in a unique position in the industry because we do have the single platform to make all this work—as opposed to many things out there that are kind of stitched together,” Kurtz said.
The subscription model, Falcon Flex, aims to enable partners to rapidly package up and deploy the dozens of additional tools CrowdStrike now offers on its platform, while providing improved agility and cost savings for customers. And Flex has been a massive growth driver for CrowdStrike partners in 2025, with expectations that Flex will only ramp up as part of a broader expansion to SMB and midmarket customers, CrowdStrike and solution provider executives told CRN.
Executives from top solution and service provider partners told CRN that CrowdStrike’s approach has increasingly resonated with customers, many of which are seeking to consolidate tools and reduce costs while also improving security outcomes.
“The amount of their functionality that builds off the existing [software] agent footprint—that’s really attractive. It’s not, ‘More agents, more tools,’” said Blackwood’s Ebley.
And the benefits for cyber defense are substantial, as CrowdStrike can harness existing telemetry from endpoints to vastly improve key areas of security such as vulnerability management, he said.
“They can assess, what is all the telemetry visibility we have? And what can we do with that? What use cases can we solve for with that telemetry?” Ebley said.
The advantages of the CrowdStrike architecture have continued to amass as the vendor has moved into new categories, most recently with new security capabilities for AI and agentic AI. Still, the company recognized it needed a similar breakthrough on its sales and procurement model to really accelerate the platform’s adoption, executives said.
That breakthrough, they said, was Falcon Flex.
Traction with Flex has surged past expectations, he said. More than 1,000 customers have utilized the model with the average customer generating more than $1 million in ARR for CrowdStrike, as of the company’s second quarter of fiscal 2026, which closed July 31.
Even the July 2024 IT outage caused by a faulty configuration update from CrowdStrike ended up leading to wider implementation for Flex. CrowdStrike provided free product compensation to customers in the wake of the incident, and the natural move was to do this through a Flex license for easier procurement, according to executives.
As a result, “we accelerated the adoption of Falcon Flex because of the incident,” Kurtz said. “In one fell swoop, we got a lot of customers [onto Flex] very quickly.”
https://t.co/DWgWHi7bFV
tweet
$CRWD
CRN EXCLUSIVE:
In an exclusive interview with CRN, Kurtz said he is now confident describing CrowdStrike, in no uncertain terms, as the first-ever “hyperscaler for security.”
“We’re in a unique position in the industry because we do have the single platform to make all this work—as opposed to many things out there that are kind of stitched together,” Kurtz said.
The subscription model, Falcon Flex, aims to enable partners to rapidly package up and deploy the dozens of additional tools CrowdStrike now offers on its platform, while providing improved agility and cost savings for customers. And Flex has been a massive growth driver for CrowdStrike partners in 2025, with expectations that Flex will only ramp up as part of a broader expansion to SMB and midmarket customers, CrowdStrike and solution provider executives told CRN.
Executives from top solution and service provider partners told CRN that CrowdStrike’s approach has increasingly resonated with customers, many of which are seeking to consolidate tools and reduce costs while also improving security outcomes.
“The amount of their functionality that builds off the existing [software] agent footprint—that’s really attractive. It’s not, ‘More agents, more tools,’” said Blackwood’s Ebley.
And the benefits for cyber defense are substantial, as CrowdStrike can harness existing telemetry from endpoints to vastly improve key areas of security such as vulnerability management, he said.
“They can assess, what is all the telemetry visibility we have? And what can we do with that? What use cases can we solve for with that telemetry?” Ebley said.
The advantages of the CrowdStrike architecture have continued to amass as the vendor has moved into new categories, most recently with new security capabilities for AI and agentic AI. Still, the company recognized it needed a similar breakthrough on its sales and procurement model to really accelerate the platform’s adoption, executives said.
That breakthrough, they said, was Falcon Flex.
Traction with Flex has surged past expectations, he said. More than 1,000 customers have utilized the model with the average customer generating more than $1 million in ARR for CrowdStrike, as of the company’s second quarter of fiscal 2026, which closed July 31.
Even the July 2024 IT outage caused by a faulty configuration update from CrowdStrike ended up leading to wider implementation for Flex. CrowdStrike provided free product compensation to customers in the wake of the incident, and the natural move was to do this through a Flex license for easier procurement, according to executives.
As a result, “we accelerated the adoption of Falcon Flex because of the incident,” Kurtz said. “In one fell swoop, we got a lot of customers [onto Flex] very quickly.”
https://t.co/DWgWHi7bFV
tweet