AkhenOsiris
RT @akhenosiris: If Gemini 3 fails to excite the masses, AI trade will inevitably suffer.
If it is exciting, does the entire AI complex catch a bid? Or will the market discriminate between GOOGL exposed names vs others (OpenAI)?
- Entire AI Complex Up
- Market Discriminates
tweet
RT @akhenosiris: If Gemini 3 fails to excite the masses, AI trade will inevitably suffer.
If it is exciting, does the entire AI complex catch a bid? Or will the market discriminate between GOOGL exposed names vs others (OpenAI)?
- Entire AI Complex Up
- Market Discriminates
tweet
Offshore
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EndGame Macro
Why Bitcoin Is Struggling in a World That Finally Pays You to Wait.
For most of the last decade, Bitcoin traded like a leveraged bet on the money printer. Central banks cut rates to zero, ran QE, and kept volatility low. Every extra dollar sloshing around could slide out the risk curve: first into tech, then memes, then crypto. Global M2 went up, real yields were negative, holding cash felt dumb so a non yielding, speculative asset like BTC looked great. Liquidity up, Bitcoin up. Clean relationship.
Same Ocean, New Currents
Fast forward to now. Global liquidity is still huge, that’s why people can say “last time BTC was here, liquidity was $7T lower.” But markets don’t trade the amount of liquidity; they trade where the next dollar is going.
Today that marginal dollar is being pulled into safer, more official uses. T‑bills and money market funds pay 4–5%. The U.S. alone has to roll over and issue trillions in government debt over the next couple of years, plus another chunk in corporate and commercial real estate loans. That acts like a giant vacuum on global cash. On top of that, regulators are nudging banks and funds toward safe assets…softer Basel rules, Fed plumbing talks around the Standing Repo Facility, constant “don’t blow up your balance sheet” messaging.
So the ocean of liquidity is big, but more of it is being soaked up by government borrowing and parked in short term instruments that actually pay you. The way I see it is liquidity is being taxed, and what I mean by that is before any money can wander into speculation, the system now offers you a decent return just for sitting in cash or Treasuries. That leaves less leftover to chase a 70 vol asset at all time highs.
Bitcoin’s Problem in This Environment
By design, Bitcoin doesn’t pay you. No coupon, no dividend, the only payoff is price going higher. You can generate yield with CeFi/DeFi lending or BTC backed products, but that adds platform and counterparty risk. After Celsius, BlockFi, FTX, most serious capital treats that yield as very different from a risk free T‑bill.
When cash suddenly pays 4–5% and Bitcoin pays zero, the opportunity cost of holding BTC gets big. In a roaring bull market people ignore that. In a shakier macro tape, they don’t.
Why the Selloff Now And What’s Next
My read on the timing…positioning was crowded after the ETF hype and new highs; macro turned more nervous (equity vol up, AI names wobbling, Japan’s bond market repricing, growth worries building into a massive refinancing wall); and policy is easing, but in a cautious, keep the plumbing from breaking way, not a new free money wave. Real rates are still positive.
Once Bitcoin broke key levels, leverage did the rest with forced liquidations, margin calls, and the usual cascade that makes the chart look like an elevator shaft. BTC isn’t ignoring the extra liquidity; it’s reacting to the fact that the liquidity is less free, more locked into funding governments and corporates, and less willing to sit in a non yielding asset at record prices.
Near term, that means a risk adverse phase with choppy trading, big bounces when shorts get crowded, sharp drops when macro jitters flare, and more leverage that probably still needs to be washed out.
Medium term, the big drivers are clear. If we get a true policy panic like a deep recession and aggressive easing, or a real debt or currency scare that dents faith in government paper…Bitcoin’s scarce, non sovereign story can come roaring back and flows will follow. Until then, it’s likely to trade less like a pure gauge of global liquidity and more like what it is in this regime: a volatile, non yielding asset trying to find a fair price in a world that finally pays you to be cautious.
The last time bitcoin was here, global liquidity was $7 trillion lower https://t.co/MveSuWGWkS - zerohedge tweet
Why Bitcoin Is Struggling in a World That Finally Pays You to Wait.
For most of the last decade, Bitcoin traded like a leveraged bet on the money printer. Central banks cut rates to zero, ran QE, and kept volatility low. Every extra dollar sloshing around could slide out the risk curve: first into tech, then memes, then crypto. Global M2 went up, real yields were negative, holding cash felt dumb so a non yielding, speculative asset like BTC looked great. Liquidity up, Bitcoin up. Clean relationship.
Same Ocean, New Currents
Fast forward to now. Global liquidity is still huge, that’s why people can say “last time BTC was here, liquidity was $7T lower.” But markets don’t trade the amount of liquidity; they trade where the next dollar is going.
Today that marginal dollar is being pulled into safer, more official uses. T‑bills and money market funds pay 4–5%. The U.S. alone has to roll over and issue trillions in government debt over the next couple of years, plus another chunk in corporate and commercial real estate loans. That acts like a giant vacuum on global cash. On top of that, regulators are nudging banks and funds toward safe assets…softer Basel rules, Fed plumbing talks around the Standing Repo Facility, constant “don’t blow up your balance sheet” messaging.
So the ocean of liquidity is big, but more of it is being soaked up by government borrowing and parked in short term instruments that actually pay you. The way I see it is liquidity is being taxed, and what I mean by that is before any money can wander into speculation, the system now offers you a decent return just for sitting in cash or Treasuries. That leaves less leftover to chase a 70 vol asset at all time highs.
Bitcoin’s Problem in This Environment
By design, Bitcoin doesn’t pay you. No coupon, no dividend, the only payoff is price going higher. You can generate yield with CeFi/DeFi lending or BTC backed products, but that adds platform and counterparty risk. After Celsius, BlockFi, FTX, most serious capital treats that yield as very different from a risk free T‑bill.
When cash suddenly pays 4–5% and Bitcoin pays zero, the opportunity cost of holding BTC gets big. In a roaring bull market people ignore that. In a shakier macro tape, they don’t.
Why the Selloff Now And What’s Next
My read on the timing…positioning was crowded after the ETF hype and new highs; macro turned more nervous (equity vol up, AI names wobbling, Japan’s bond market repricing, growth worries building into a massive refinancing wall); and policy is easing, but in a cautious, keep the plumbing from breaking way, not a new free money wave. Real rates are still positive.
Once Bitcoin broke key levels, leverage did the rest with forced liquidations, margin calls, and the usual cascade that makes the chart look like an elevator shaft. BTC isn’t ignoring the extra liquidity; it’s reacting to the fact that the liquidity is less free, more locked into funding governments and corporates, and less willing to sit in a non yielding asset at record prices.
Near term, that means a risk adverse phase with choppy trading, big bounces when shorts get crowded, sharp drops when macro jitters flare, and more leverage that probably still needs to be washed out.
Medium term, the big drivers are clear. If we get a true policy panic like a deep recession and aggressive easing, or a real debt or currency scare that dents faith in government paper…Bitcoin’s scarce, non sovereign story can come roaring back and flows will follow. Until then, it’s likely to trade less like a pure gauge of global liquidity and more like what it is in this regime: a volatile, non yielding asset trying to find a fair price in a world that finally pays you to be cautious.
The last time bitcoin was here, global liquidity was $7 trillion lower https://t.co/MveSuWGWkS - zerohedge tweet
Offshore
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WealthyReadings
🚨Just dropped my favorite stocks at today’s price as the market continues to fall.
We’re talking $TMDX $PYPL $NBIS $SE & more.
Detailed breakdowns. No fluff. No hype. No ridiclous price targets or delusional takes.
Serious work for serious investors👇
https://t.co/aZ0r7TcIEK
tweet
🚨Just dropped my favorite stocks at today’s price as the market continues to fall.
We’re talking $TMDX $PYPL $NBIS $SE & more.
Detailed breakdowns. No fluff. No hype. No ridiclous price targets or delusional takes.
Serious work for serious investors👇
https://t.co/aZ0r7TcIEK
tweet
Offshore
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Quiver Quantitative
BREAKING: Representative Brandon Gill just filed up to $300K in Bitcoin purchases.
Gill sits on the House Committee on the Budget.
Full trade list up on Quiver. https://t.co/cyHX7hn6VG
tweet
BREAKING: Representative Brandon Gill just filed up to $300K in Bitcoin purchases.
Gill sits on the House Committee on the Budget.
Full trade list up on Quiver. https://t.co/cyHX7hn6VG
tweet
Clark Square Capital
Any news on $VRA? Did it become a meme stock?
tweet
Any news on $VRA? Did it become a meme stock?
@AstutexAi any news as to why $VRA is up 25% today? tweet
X (formerly Twitter)
polarcalorie (@polarcalorie) on X
@AstutexAi any news as to why $VRA is up 25% today?
Offshore
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Quiver Quantitative
JUST IN: Representative Josh Gottheimer just filed new stock trades.
One stood out to me:
A purchase of an AI customer relations company called $NICE.
It's the first time we've seen a member of Congress buy the stock. https://t.co/vytJH0MGhL
tweet
JUST IN: Representative Josh Gottheimer just filed new stock trades.
One stood out to me:
A purchase of an AI customer relations company called $NICE.
It's the first time we've seen a member of Congress buy the stock. https://t.co/vytJH0MGhL
tweet