AkhenOsiris
Latest on Ad Space: $GOOGL $META $AMZN
Digiday -
It seems mixed signals are all over the place in the fourth-quarter ad marketplace, with some media buyers reporting a recent drop off in ad spend from a number of categories, while others acknowledge a slowdown but not of any amount that rings alarm bells for 2026. One chief media officer even said he’s seen an uptick in business since the beginning of the quarter.
What’s going on? For one thing, the fact that economic signals are just short of haywire means no advertiser, much less their media agency, can set a clear-cut path forward. Between up-and-down tariffs, the longest U.S. federal government shutdown in history (just concluded but the impact is still being felt) and lingering inflationary worries, things are about as clear as concrete.
That reality has led to reports of some publishers and sellers offering incentives to land more business (and hit 2025 sales goals), including beta-testing opportunities (more on that later). And if historical precedent is to be believed, the instability impacting the market today could easily usher in a Q1 2026 that’s softer than the momentum needed to make the year a winner for brands, for publishers and for agencies.
“It’s not a soft market — I just got two significant budgets handed to me for the rest of Q4,” said one veteran buyer at a multi-agency group. “But it’s definitely softer than how it started.”
The buyer, who spoke with Digiday on condition of anonymity, said part of the softness is that some of the bigger-spending advertisers put down a larger share of dollars into upfront commitments because of favorable rates, leaving fewer dollars to spend in scatter. That’s left some connected TV players scrambling to fill their coffers, because they had been expecting more money to be working in Q4.
Some of the strength or weakness in the marketplace — including linear TV and CTV, digital, retail media and audio — depends on where clients are in the purchase funnel. It seems right now, upper-funnel brand marketing is in vogue as advertisers ensure their brand is remembered over the next six weeks.
“Across all of the ad spend we manage across digital, tradition and retail media networks, we are seeing year-over-year mid and lower funnel spend down 8% and top-of-funnel investments in YouTube, linear, CTV, etc. up 26%,” said Tucker Matheson, co-founder of Markacy. Those numbers seem to indicate “that brands are shifting the next incremental dollar into more brand awareness tactics versus conversion.”
tweet
Latest on Ad Space: $GOOGL $META $AMZN
Digiday -
It seems mixed signals are all over the place in the fourth-quarter ad marketplace, with some media buyers reporting a recent drop off in ad spend from a number of categories, while others acknowledge a slowdown but not of any amount that rings alarm bells for 2026. One chief media officer even said he’s seen an uptick in business since the beginning of the quarter.
What’s going on? For one thing, the fact that economic signals are just short of haywire means no advertiser, much less their media agency, can set a clear-cut path forward. Between up-and-down tariffs, the longest U.S. federal government shutdown in history (just concluded but the impact is still being felt) and lingering inflationary worries, things are about as clear as concrete.
That reality has led to reports of some publishers and sellers offering incentives to land more business (and hit 2025 sales goals), including beta-testing opportunities (more on that later). And if historical precedent is to be believed, the instability impacting the market today could easily usher in a Q1 2026 that’s softer than the momentum needed to make the year a winner for brands, for publishers and for agencies.
“It’s not a soft market — I just got two significant budgets handed to me for the rest of Q4,” said one veteran buyer at a multi-agency group. “But it’s definitely softer than how it started.”
The buyer, who spoke with Digiday on condition of anonymity, said part of the softness is that some of the bigger-spending advertisers put down a larger share of dollars into upfront commitments because of favorable rates, leaving fewer dollars to spend in scatter. That’s left some connected TV players scrambling to fill their coffers, because they had been expecting more money to be working in Q4.
Some of the strength or weakness in the marketplace — including linear TV and CTV, digital, retail media and audio — depends on where clients are in the purchase funnel. It seems right now, upper-funnel brand marketing is in vogue as advertisers ensure their brand is remembered over the next six weeks.
“Across all of the ad spend we manage across digital, tradition and retail media networks, we are seeing year-over-year mid and lower funnel spend down 8% and top-of-funnel investments in YouTube, linear, CTV, etc. up 26%,” said Tucker Matheson, co-founder of Markacy. Those numbers seem to indicate “that brands are shifting the next incremental dollar into more brand awareness tactics versus conversion.”
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AkhenOsiris
Send $META below $600
David Dweck, who was just promoted from general manager to president of digital agency Go Fish, said this market is softer than what he’s seen since the pandemic first shook up marketplace activity.
“We’re expecting to have a softer holiday than the last three to five years,” said Dweck, pointing largely to consumer spending drop-off. “We saw a bit of a higher spike [in client spend] in mid-October, but it’s trailed off to the point that it’s been down 10% the last two weeks.”
tweet
Send $META below $600
David Dweck, who was just promoted from general manager to president of digital agency Go Fish, said this market is softer than what he’s seen since the pandemic first shook up marketplace activity.
“We’re expecting to have a softer holiday than the last three to five years,” said Dweck, pointing largely to consumer spending drop-off. “We saw a bit of a higher spike [in client spend] in mid-October, but it’s trailed off to the point that it’s been down 10% the last two weeks.”
Latest on Ad Space: $GOOGL $META $AMZN
Digiday -
It seems mixed signals are all over the place in the fourth-quarter ad marketplace, with some media buyers reporting a recent drop off in ad spend from a number of categories, while others acknowledge a slowdown but not of any amount that rings alarm bells for 2026. One chief media officer even said he’s seen an uptick in business since the beginning of the quarter.
What’s going on? For one thing, the fact that economic signals are just short of haywire means no advertiser, much less their media agency, can set a clear-cut path forward. Between up-and-down tariffs, the longest U.S. federal government shutdown in history (just concluded but the impact is still being felt) and lingering inflationary worries, things are about as clear as concrete.
That reality has led to reports of some publishers and sellers offering incentives to land more business (and hit 2025 sales goals), including beta-testing opportunities (more on that later). And if historical precedent is to be believed, the instability impacting the market today could easily usher in a Q1 2026 that’s softer than the momentum needed to make the year a winner for brands, for publishers and for agencies.
“It’s not a soft market — I just got two significant budgets handed to me for the rest of Q4,” said one veteran buyer at a multi-agency group. “But it’s definitely softer than how it started.”
The buyer, who spoke with Digiday on condition of anonymity, said part of the softness is that some of the bigger-spending advertisers put down a larger share of dollars into upfront commitments because of favorable rates, leaving fewer dollars to spend in scatter. That’s left some connected TV players scrambling to fill their coffers, because they had been expecting more money to be working in Q4.
Some of the strength or weakness in the marketplace — including linear TV and CTV, digital, retail media and audio — depends on where clients are in the purchase funnel. It seems right now, upper-funnel brand marketing is in vogue as advertisers ensure their brand is remembered over the next six weeks.
“Across all of the ad spend we manage across digital, tradition and retail media networks, we are seeing year-over-year mid and lower funnel spend down 8% and top-of-funnel investments in YouTube, linear, CTV, etc. up 26%,” said Tucker Matheson, co-founder of Markacy. Those numbers seem to indicate “that brands are shifting the next incremental dollar into more brand awareness tactics versus conversion.” tweet
AkhenOsiris
Sleepy Joe Biden market! 😡
tweet
Sleepy Joe Biden market! 😡
TRUMP HAS 'PROVEN ECONOMIC FORMULA' BUT IT'S 'GOING TO TAKE MORE TIME,' - WH OFFICIAL tweet
EndGame Macro
Waller’s Warning Shot: The Real Reason He Wants More Cuts
If you strip away the formal tone, Waller’s message is pretty direct…inflation is basically tamed, the job market is fading faster than the official numbers show, and the Fed shouldn’t sit around waiting for a recession before cutting more. He makes it sound academic, but the underlying point is simple, the risks have flipped. Inflation isn’t the danger anymore; unemployment is.
The Labor Market Is Weaker Than It Looks
Waller spends most of the speech walking you through why he thinks the job market is already in trouble, even if the headline data hasn’t fully reflected it. He points out that job creation stalled from May through August and once revisions are finalized, those months will likely show net job losses rather than gains.
He talks about businesses freezing hiring, not because they can’t find workers anymore, but because demand has softened. Surveys show fewer job postings, fewer openings, fewer small businesses struggling to hire, and rising continuing unemployment claims. These are the kinds of signals that show up before a recession becomes official. And he emphasizes that none of this looks like a supply issue, if it were, wages would be ripping higher and workers would be job hopping. Instead, wages are cooling, quits are down, and firms say hiring is getting easier. All classic signs of weaker demand.
Consumers Are Tapping Out
Waller’s other major concern is the consumer…especially households outside the top income tiers. He points to Michigan sentiment, which has collapsed to near record lows, and he notes that this lines up with what businesses are telling him…the middle and lower income consumer is stretched. Housing affordability is awful, auto loans are expensive, and big ticket spending is slowing. That’s the part of the economy that usually rolls over first.
He even highlights how distorted things look with AI related stocks: they’re driving markets and profits, but they employ less than 3% of the workforce. That’s his way of saying don’t let the stock market fool you, Main Street is weakening even if Wall Street looks strong.
Inflation Isn’t the Threat Anymore
Then he tackles inflation. His argument is that most of the recent stickiness is due to tariffs…a one time bump, not a new trend. Once you strip that out, he sees underlying inflation close to 2%. And despite five years of overshooting, inflation expectations are still anchored. In other words: the Fed already won this fight, whether they want to admit it out loud or not.
He also makes a point that matters…with wages cooling and demand weakening, there’s no force in the economy that would reignite inflation right now. That’s his justification for focusing almost entirely on jobs.
Where He Wants Policy to Go
With all of that as the backdrop, he makes his conclusion feel “inevitable.” He openly supports another 25 bp cut in December, and he says outright that there’s basically no upcoming data that could change his mind. That’s unusually blunt for a Fed governor. His argument is that the Fed needs to cut now as insurance against a steeper drop in employment later. Waiting would only make the damage worse.
The Subtle Message Underneath
If you read between the lines, Waller is doing two things:
•Reframing the debate inside the Fed away from inflation worries and toward job-market protection.
•Pushing the Committee toward steady easing, not one and done token cuts.
And he’s grounding that push in something simple…the economy is already slowing, consumers are already hurting, and the job market is weaker than the official data shows. He’s telling you the Fed needs to move now, not because things are great, but because they’re deteriorating beneath the surface.
Speech by Governor Waller on the economic outlook @econ_SPE: https://t.co/CJr856jdpU
Watch live: https://t.co/MrTbfNIEWU
Learn more about Governor Waller: https://t.co/x9pLY09PF9 - Federal Reserve tweet
Waller’s Warning Shot: The Real Reason He Wants More Cuts
If you strip away the formal tone, Waller’s message is pretty direct…inflation is basically tamed, the job market is fading faster than the official numbers show, and the Fed shouldn’t sit around waiting for a recession before cutting more. He makes it sound academic, but the underlying point is simple, the risks have flipped. Inflation isn’t the danger anymore; unemployment is.
The Labor Market Is Weaker Than It Looks
Waller spends most of the speech walking you through why he thinks the job market is already in trouble, even if the headline data hasn’t fully reflected it. He points out that job creation stalled from May through August and once revisions are finalized, those months will likely show net job losses rather than gains.
He talks about businesses freezing hiring, not because they can’t find workers anymore, but because demand has softened. Surveys show fewer job postings, fewer openings, fewer small businesses struggling to hire, and rising continuing unemployment claims. These are the kinds of signals that show up before a recession becomes official. And he emphasizes that none of this looks like a supply issue, if it were, wages would be ripping higher and workers would be job hopping. Instead, wages are cooling, quits are down, and firms say hiring is getting easier. All classic signs of weaker demand.
Consumers Are Tapping Out
Waller’s other major concern is the consumer…especially households outside the top income tiers. He points to Michigan sentiment, which has collapsed to near record lows, and he notes that this lines up with what businesses are telling him…the middle and lower income consumer is stretched. Housing affordability is awful, auto loans are expensive, and big ticket spending is slowing. That’s the part of the economy that usually rolls over first.
He even highlights how distorted things look with AI related stocks: they’re driving markets and profits, but they employ less than 3% of the workforce. That’s his way of saying don’t let the stock market fool you, Main Street is weakening even if Wall Street looks strong.
Inflation Isn’t the Threat Anymore
Then he tackles inflation. His argument is that most of the recent stickiness is due to tariffs…a one time bump, not a new trend. Once you strip that out, he sees underlying inflation close to 2%. And despite five years of overshooting, inflation expectations are still anchored. In other words: the Fed already won this fight, whether they want to admit it out loud or not.
He also makes a point that matters…with wages cooling and demand weakening, there’s no force in the economy that would reignite inflation right now. That’s his justification for focusing almost entirely on jobs.
Where He Wants Policy to Go
With all of that as the backdrop, he makes his conclusion feel “inevitable.” He openly supports another 25 bp cut in December, and he says outright that there’s basically no upcoming data that could change his mind. That’s unusually blunt for a Fed governor. His argument is that the Fed needs to cut now as insurance against a steeper drop in employment later. Waiting would only make the damage worse.
The Subtle Message Underneath
If you read between the lines, Waller is doing two things:
•Reframing the debate inside the Fed away from inflation worries and toward job-market protection.
•Pushing the Committee toward steady easing, not one and done token cuts.
And he’s grounding that push in something simple…the economy is already slowing, consumers are already hurting, and the job market is weaker than the official data shows. He’s telling you the Fed needs to move now, not because things are great, but because they’re deteriorating beneath the surface.
Speech by Governor Waller on the economic outlook @econ_SPE: https://t.co/CJr856jdpU
Watch live: https://t.co/MrTbfNIEWU
Learn more about Governor Waller: https://t.co/x9pLY09PF9 - Federal Reserve tweet
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
The Case for Continuing Rate Cuts
Thank you to the Society for the honor of addressing your annual meeting.1 In doing a little research on the SPE's history, I noted that one goal cited by the business economists who founded this group was creating a forum to discuss the divergence between…
Offshore
Video
EndGame Macro
🇯🇵 Japan May Be the First Domino And The U.S. Should Pay Attention
Japan is quietly stepping out of the role it played for thirty years: the world’s source of near free money. When Japanese rates were pinned at zero, their pension funds, insurers, and banks had no choice but to send money abroad. That steady flow kept global borrowing costs lower than they should’ve been, especially in the U.S.
Now that Japan finally pays a real return at home, that flow slows. And the reason yields are rising isn’t because Japan is booming, it’s because inflation lingered, the currency weakened, deficits grew, and the market is finally pricing the risks of a country that can’t hide behind deflation anymore.
Why This Matters for the U.S.
For the U.S., this shift removes a quiet safety net. If Japanese money stays in Japan, America has to absorb more of its own debt issuance. That makes long term rates stickier, financial conditions tighter, and mistakes harder to hide. You already see the Fed adjusting: ending QT early, softening Basel rules so banks don’t retreat from Treasuries, and checking the repo plumbing to make sure nothing snaps when liquidity gets thin.
So Japan doesn’t create a crisis but it reduces the room for error. In a world where Washington is issuing record debt, losing a reliable buyer like Japan matters.
The Tariff Angle And the Smoot-Hawley Echo
Now layer tariffs on top of this. Tariffs don’t automatically cause a depression, but they do raise costs, reduce trade, and strain already fragile supply chains. In the 1930s, Smoot-Hawley didn’t create the Great Depression but it made a bad downturn worse. Countries retaliated, trade collapsed, and the world’s economic contraction deepened. It accelerated the pain because everyone was tightening policy at the same time, fighting each other instead of stabilizing demand.
Today’s setup rhymes uncomfortably with that moment. Growth is already soft in Europe and China. The U.S. consumer is slowing. Japan, once a deflation shock absorber is no longer exporting cheap capital. If tariffs escalate globally, they could choke off trade right as the financial system is losing its old supports. That combination is exactly how you turn a normal slowdown into something sharper.
Could Japan Ever Go Back to Zero?
It can, but only for the wrong reasons. Japan would be pushed back into its cheap money factory role if the world were falling into a global deflationary slump, collapsing demand, falling prices, trade retreating, unemployment rising everywhere. In that world, the BOJ would be forced back into heavy bond buying just to keep the system from seizing. Yields would crash, but not because anything was healthy, because everything was shrinking.
And the U.S. would feel it immediately…plunging Treasury yields, a return of QE, a stronger dollar, and the kind of financial stress that comes when the world suddenly gets scared of its own shadow.
The Real Message
Japan’s bond market is signaling a regime shift. Tariffs are adding friction to a system already running tight. Put together, they tell you the global economy is losing its old shock absorbers and the U.S. can’t rely on the same easy backdrop it had for the last 20 years. This isn’t panic, but it’s a clear sign that the world is entering a more fragile, less forgiving phase.
tweet
🇯🇵 Japan May Be the First Domino And The U.S. Should Pay Attention
Japan is quietly stepping out of the role it played for thirty years: the world’s source of near free money. When Japanese rates were pinned at zero, their pension funds, insurers, and banks had no choice but to send money abroad. That steady flow kept global borrowing costs lower than they should’ve been, especially in the U.S.
Now that Japan finally pays a real return at home, that flow slows. And the reason yields are rising isn’t because Japan is booming, it’s because inflation lingered, the currency weakened, deficits grew, and the market is finally pricing the risks of a country that can’t hide behind deflation anymore.
Why This Matters for the U.S.
For the U.S., this shift removes a quiet safety net. If Japanese money stays in Japan, America has to absorb more of its own debt issuance. That makes long term rates stickier, financial conditions tighter, and mistakes harder to hide. You already see the Fed adjusting: ending QT early, softening Basel rules so banks don’t retreat from Treasuries, and checking the repo plumbing to make sure nothing snaps when liquidity gets thin.
So Japan doesn’t create a crisis but it reduces the room for error. In a world where Washington is issuing record debt, losing a reliable buyer like Japan matters.
The Tariff Angle And the Smoot-Hawley Echo
Now layer tariffs on top of this. Tariffs don’t automatically cause a depression, but they do raise costs, reduce trade, and strain already fragile supply chains. In the 1930s, Smoot-Hawley didn’t create the Great Depression but it made a bad downturn worse. Countries retaliated, trade collapsed, and the world’s economic contraction deepened. It accelerated the pain because everyone was tightening policy at the same time, fighting each other instead of stabilizing demand.
Today’s setup rhymes uncomfortably with that moment. Growth is already soft in Europe and China. The U.S. consumer is slowing. Japan, once a deflation shock absorber is no longer exporting cheap capital. If tariffs escalate globally, they could choke off trade right as the financial system is losing its old supports. That combination is exactly how you turn a normal slowdown into something sharper.
Could Japan Ever Go Back to Zero?
It can, but only for the wrong reasons. Japan would be pushed back into its cheap money factory role if the world were falling into a global deflationary slump, collapsing demand, falling prices, trade retreating, unemployment rising everywhere. In that world, the BOJ would be forced back into heavy bond buying just to keep the system from seizing. Yields would crash, but not because anything was healthy, because everything was shrinking.
And the U.S. would feel it immediately…plunging Treasury yields, a return of QE, a stronger dollar, and the kind of financial stress that comes when the world suddenly gets scared of its own shadow.
The Real Message
Japan’s bond market is signaling a regime shift. Tariffs are adding friction to a system already running tight. Put together, they tell you the global economy is losing its old shock absorbers and the U.S. can’t rely on the same easy backdrop it had for the last 20 years. This isn’t panic, but it’s a clear sign that the world is entering a more fragile, less forgiving phase.
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AkhenOsiris
RT @akhenosiris: If Gemini 3 fails to excite the masses, AI trade will inevitably suffer.
If it is exciting, does the entire AI complex catch a bid? Or will the market discriminate between GOOGL exposed names vs others (OpenAI)?
- Entire AI Complex Up
- Market Discriminates
tweet
RT @akhenosiris: If Gemini 3 fails to excite the masses, AI trade will inevitably suffer.
If it is exciting, does the entire AI complex catch a bid? Or will the market discriminate between GOOGL exposed names vs others (OpenAI)?
- Entire AI Complex Up
- Market Discriminates
tweet
Offshore
Photo
EndGame Macro
Why Bitcoin Is Struggling in a World That Finally Pays You to Wait.
For most of the last decade, Bitcoin traded like a leveraged bet on the money printer. Central banks cut rates to zero, ran QE, and kept volatility low. Every extra dollar sloshing around could slide out the risk curve: first into tech, then memes, then crypto. Global M2 went up, real yields were negative, holding cash felt dumb so a non yielding, speculative asset like BTC looked great. Liquidity up, Bitcoin up. Clean relationship.
Same Ocean, New Currents
Fast forward to now. Global liquidity is still huge, that’s why people can say “last time BTC was here, liquidity was $7T lower.” But markets don’t trade the amount of liquidity; they trade where the next dollar is going.
Today that marginal dollar is being pulled into safer, more official uses. T‑bills and money market funds pay 4–5%. The U.S. alone has to roll over and issue trillions in government debt over the next couple of years, plus another chunk in corporate and commercial real estate loans. That acts like a giant vacuum on global cash. On top of that, regulators are nudging banks and funds toward safe assets…softer Basel rules, Fed plumbing talks around the Standing Repo Facility, constant “don’t blow up your balance sheet” messaging.
So the ocean of liquidity is big, but more of it is being soaked up by government borrowing and parked in short term instruments that actually pay you. The way I see it is liquidity is being taxed, and what I mean by that is before any money can wander into speculation, the system now offers you a decent return just for sitting in cash or Treasuries. That leaves less leftover to chase a 70 vol asset at all time highs.
Bitcoin’s Problem in This Environment
By design, Bitcoin doesn’t pay you. No coupon, no dividend, the only payoff is price going higher. You can generate yield with CeFi/DeFi lending or BTC backed products, but that adds platform and counterparty risk. After Celsius, BlockFi, FTX, most serious capital treats that yield as very different from a risk free T‑bill.
When cash suddenly pays 4–5% and Bitcoin pays zero, the opportunity cost of holding BTC gets big. In a roaring bull market people ignore that. In a shakier macro tape, they don’t.
Why the Selloff Now And What’s Next
My read on the timing…positioning was crowded after the ETF hype and new highs; macro turned more nervous (equity vol up, AI names wobbling, Japan’s bond market repricing, growth worries building into a massive refinancing wall); and policy is easing, but in a cautious, keep the plumbing from breaking way, not a new free money wave. Real rates are still positive.
Once Bitcoin broke key levels, leverage did the rest with forced liquidations, margin calls, and the usual cascade that makes the chart look like an elevator shaft. BTC isn’t ignoring the extra liquidity; it’s reacting to the fact that the liquidity is less free, more locked into funding governments and corporates, and less willing to sit in a non yielding asset at record prices.
Near term, that means a risk adverse phase with choppy trading, big bounces when shorts get crowded, sharp drops when macro jitters flare, and more leverage that probably still needs to be washed out.
Medium term, the big drivers are clear. If we get a true policy panic like a deep recession and aggressive easing, or a real debt or currency scare that dents faith in government paper…Bitcoin’s scarce, non sovereign story can come roaring back and flows will follow. Until then, it’s likely to trade less like a pure gauge of global liquidity and more like what it is in this regime: a volatile, non yielding asset trying to find a fair price in a world that finally pays you to be cautious.
The last time bitcoin was here, global liquidity was $7 trillion lower https://t.co/MveSuWGWkS - zerohedge tweet
Why Bitcoin Is Struggling in a World That Finally Pays You to Wait.
For most of the last decade, Bitcoin traded like a leveraged bet on the money printer. Central banks cut rates to zero, ran QE, and kept volatility low. Every extra dollar sloshing around could slide out the risk curve: first into tech, then memes, then crypto. Global M2 went up, real yields were negative, holding cash felt dumb so a non yielding, speculative asset like BTC looked great. Liquidity up, Bitcoin up. Clean relationship.
Same Ocean, New Currents
Fast forward to now. Global liquidity is still huge, that’s why people can say “last time BTC was here, liquidity was $7T lower.” But markets don’t trade the amount of liquidity; they trade where the next dollar is going.
Today that marginal dollar is being pulled into safer, more official uses. T‑bills and money market funds pay 4–5%. The U.S. alone has to roll over and issue trillions in government debt over the next couple of years, plus another chunk in corporate and commercial real estate loans. That acts like a giant vacuum on global cash. On top of that, regulators are nudging banks and funds toward safe assets…softer Basel rules, Fed plumbing talks around the Standing Repo Facility, constant “don’t blow up your balance sheet” messaging.
So the ocean of liquidity is big, but more of it is being soaked up by government borrowing and parked in short term instruments that actually pay you. The way I see it is liquidity is being taxed, and what I mean by that is before any money can wander into speculation, the system now offers you a decent return just for sitting in cash or Treasuries. That leaves less leftover to chase a 70 vol asset at all time highs.
Bitcoin’s Problem in This Environment
By design, Bitcoin doesn’t pay you. No coupon, no dividend, the only payoff is price going higher. You can generate yield with CeFi/DeFi lending or BTC backed products, but that adds platform and counterparty risk. After Celsius, BlockFi, FTX, most serious capital treats that yield as very different from a risk free T‑bill.
When cash suddenly pays 4–5% and Bitcoin pays zero, the opportunity cost of holding BTC gets big. In a roaring bull market people ignore that. In a shakier macro tape, they don’t.
Why the Selloff Now And What’s Next
My read on the timing…positioning was crowded after the ETF hype and new highs; macro turned more nervous (equity vol up, AI names wobbling, Japan’s bond market repricing, growth worries building into a massive refinancing wall); and policy is easing, but in a cautious, keep the plumbing from breaking way, not a new free money wave. Real rates are still positive.
Once Bitcoin broke key levels, leverage did the rest with forced liquidations, margin calls, and the usual cascade that makes the chart look like an elevator shaft. BTC isn’t ignoring the extra liquidity; it’s reacting to the fact that the liquidity is less free, more locked into funding governments and corporates, and less willing to sit in a non yielding asset at record prices.
Near term, that means a risk adverse phase with choppy trading, big bounces when shorts get crowded, sharp drops when macro jitters flare, and more leverage that probably still needs to be washed out.
Medium term, the big drivers are clear. If we get a true policy panic like a deep recession and aggressive easing, or a real debt or currency scare that dents faith in government paper…Bitcoin’s scarce, non sovereign story can come roaring back and flows will follow. Until then, it’s likely to trade less like a pure gauge of global liquidity and more like what it is in this regime: a volatile, non yielding asset trying to find a fair price in a world that finally pays you to be cautious.
The last time bitcoin was here, global liquidity was $7 trillion lower https://t.co/MveSuWGWkS - zerohedge tweet
Offshore
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WealthyReadings
🚨Just dropped my favorite stocks at today’s price as the market continues to fall.
We’re talking $TMDX $PYPL $NBIS $SE & more.
Detailed breakdowns. No fluff. No hype. No ridiclous price targets or delusional takes.
Serious work for serious investors👇
https://t.co/aZ0r7TcIEK
tweet
🚨Just dropped my favorite stocks at today’s price as the market continues to fall.
We’re talking $TMDX $PYPL $NBIS $SE & more.
Detailed breakdowns. No fluff. No hype. No ridiclous price targets or delusional takes.
Serious work for serious investors👇
https://t.co/aZ0r7TcIEK
tweet