Offshore
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WealthyReadings
$META remains one of the strongest compounders in the market, but its stock faces short-term risks.
Hereโs why ๐
๐นThe largest social media company with massive network effects.
๐นUnmatched user base and engagement across billions of users.
๐นDominant advertising scale with no true competition.
๐นLeader in AI development & positioned for the next decade.
๐นMassive growth potential with hardwares.
๐นBeginning to monetize new platforms.
๐นStrong growth and expanding margins driven by AI efficiency.
๐นMultiples contracting due to fears over AI spending.
The bear case?
๐น Margins shrinking due to heavy AI investments, rising expenses and depreciation.
๐น Uncertainty around future AI monetization beyond first efficiency gains; no ceiling in sight yet and current trends show no reason to be bearish.
You'll find more details in the full breakdown below, but one conclusion stands: $META's business remains one of the strongest in the market but its stock may face pressure with margins compression. Long term? No concern despite potential short-term volatility.
Question is, can you stomach a weak period for the stockโฆ or will it never even come?
tweet
$META remains one of the strongest compounders in the market, but its stock faces short-term risks.
Hereโs why ๐
๐นThe largest social media company with massive network effects.
๐นUnmatched user base and engagement across billions of users.
๐นDominant advertising scale with no true competition.
๐นLeader in AI development & positioned for the next decade.
๐นMassive growth potential with hardwares.
๐นBeginning to monetize new platforms.
๐นStrong growth and expanding margins driven by AI efficiency.
๐นMultiples contracting due to fears over AI spending.
The bear case?
๐น Margins shrinking due to heavy AI investments, rising expenses and depreciation.
๐น Uncertainty around future AI monetization beyond first efficiency gains; no ceiling in sight yet and current trends show no reason to be bearish.
You'll find more details in the full breakdown below, but one conclusion stands: $META's business remains one of the strongest in the market but its stock may face pressure with margins compression. Long term? No concern despite potential short-term volatility.
Question is, can you stomach a weak period for the stockโฆ or will it never even come?
tweet
Offshore
Photo
WealthyReadings
The market is now pricing no December cut. Thatโs not the only reason for current weakness, but itโs worth a recap of the actual situation.
And why it might get a surprise.
The FED is still stuck between inflation and a weakening labor market. Recent inflation data was stable, tariffs weren't fully passed through to consumers - yet, and we already have confirmation that tariffs will ease - they already did with China, so what was a strong pressure should be reduced and give more visibility to the FED and business.
On the jobs side, things were bad and are getting worse. The temporary government shutdown didnโt help, and weโve seen tens of thousands of layoffs these last weeks, after the last cut.
The labor market is weaker. Inflation is steady with positive long term signals. And the FED had planned additional cuts this year.
If they donโt cut? The market is already pricing that in.
If they do cut? The market isnโt priced for it.
Just sayinโ
tweet
The market is now pricing no December cut. Thatโs not the only reason for current weakness, but itโs worth a recap of the actual situation.
And why it might get a surprise.
The FED is still stuck between inflation and a weakening labor market. Recent inflation data was stable, tariffs weren't fully passed through to consumers - yet, and we already have confirmation that tariffs will ease - they already did with China, so what was a strong pressure should be reduced and give more visibility to the FED and business.
On the jobs side, things were bad and are getting worse. The temporary government shutdown didnโt help, and weโve seen tens of thousands of layoffs these last weeks, after the last cut.
The labor market is weaker. Inflation is steady with positive long term signals. And the FED had planned additional cuts this year.
If they donโt cut? The market is already pricing that in.
If they do cut? The market isnโt priced for it.
Just sayinโ
tweet
Offshore
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Clark Square Capital
RT @TheAppInvestor: ๐ Mobile Gaming Stocks โ WK46 โ25:
$GRVY rebounds as live-ops lift an older Ragnarok title, while #BoomBit (BBT.WA) extends its recovery on Big Helmetsโ early momentum.
Full weekly trends inside.
#MobileGaming #GameStocks
Article: https://t.co/857eMKuSxF https://t.co/eQYCaJ8zcG
tweet
RT @TheAppInvestor: ๐ Mobile Gaming Stocks โ WK46 โ25:
$GRVY rebounds as live-ops lift an older Ragnarok title, while #BoomBit (BBT.WA) extends its recovery on Big Helmetsโ early momentum.
Full weekly trends inside.
#MobileGaming #GameStocks
Article: https://t.co/857eMKuSxF https://t.co/eQYCaJ8zcG
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Offshore
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Quiver Quantitative
Bitcoin has now fallen 19% since this letter was sent.
tweet
Bitcoin has now fallen 19% since this letter was sent.
JUST IN: GOP members of the House Financial Services Committee have asked the SEC to implement Trump's executive allowing crypto in 401Ks.
"We are hopeful that such actions will help the 90 million Americans...secure a dignified, comfortable retirement" https://t.co/72esv9EXU0 tweet
Offshore
Video
App Economy Insights
Love the Super Investors view on @fiscal_ai
All the legends in one dashboard. Every portfolio visualized, including changes over time.
Such a good feature. https://t.co/MZIvFbPs1F
tweet
Love the Super Investors view on @fiscal_ai
All the legends in one dashboard. Every portfolio visualized, including changes over time.
Such a good feature. https://t.co/MZIvFbPs1F
tweet
Offshore
Photo
Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capitalยฎ
RT @DimitryNakhla: A quality valuation analysis on $ICE ๐ง๐ฝโโ๏ธ
โขNTM P/E Ratio: 20.98x
โข5-Year Mean: 22.29x
โขNTM FCF Yield: 5.06%
โข5-Year Mean: 4.85%
As you can see, $ICE appears to be trading slightly near fair value
Going forward, investors can expect to receive ~6% MORE in EPS & ~4% MORE in FCF per share๐ง ***
Before we get into valuation, letโs take a look at why $ICE is a quality business
BALANCE SHEET๐
โขCash & Equivalents: $850M
โขLong-Term Debt: $17.36B
$ICE has an OK balance sheet, an A- S&P Credit Rating & 6.03x FFO Interest Coverage
RETURN ON CAPITAL๐
โข2020: 7.8%
โข2021: 8.6%
โข2022: 8.3%
โข2023: 7.5%
โข2024: 8.5%
โขLTM: 9.3%
RETURN ON EQUITY๐
โข2020: 11.4%
โข2021: 19.2%
โข2022: 6.6%
โข2023: 10.0%
โข2024: 10.5%
โขLTM: 11.5%
$ICE has decent return metrics as the company relies heavily on acquisitions
REVENUESโ
โข2015: $3.34B
โข2025E: $9.89B
โขCAGR: 11.46%
FREE CASH FLOWโ
โข2015: $1.12B
โข2025E: $3.97B
โขCAGR: 13.49%
NORMALIZED EPSโ
โข2015: $2.43
โข2025E: $6.90
โขCAGR: 11.00%
SHARE BUYBACKSโ
โข2015 Shares Outstanding: 559.00M
โขLTM Shares Outstanding: 576.00M
MARGINSโ
โขLTM Gross Margins: 100.0%
โขLTM Operating Margins: 49.6%
โขLTM Gross Margins: 32.4%
***NOW TO VALUATION ๐ง
As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~6% MORE in EPS & ~4% MORE in FCF per share
Using Benjamin Grahamโs 2G rule of thumb, $ICE has to grow earnings at a 10.49% CAGR over the next several years to justify its valuation
Today, analysts anticipate 2026 - 2028 EPS growth over the next few years to be slightly more than the (10.49%) required growth rate:
2025E: $6.90 (14% YoY) *FY Dec
2026E: $7.50 (9% YoY)
2027E: $8.36 (11% YoY)
2028E: $9.45 (13% YoY)
$ICE has a great track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, but letโs assume $ICE ends 2028 with $9.45 in EPS & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples
25x P/E: $236.25๐ต โฆ ~15.9% CAGR
24x P/E: $226.80๐ต โฆ ~14.4% CAGR
23x P/E: $217.35๐ต โฆ ~12.9% CAGR
22x P/E: $207.90๐ต โฆ ~11.3% CAGR
21x P/E: $198.45๐ต โฆ ~9.8% CAGR
As you can see, we have to assume ~22x earnings for $ICE to have double-digit CAGR potential
At 24x - 25x, $ICE can CAGR near the mid-teens
$ICE is a high-quality business with a wide-moat & generates ~65% of total revenue from their exchanges revenue โ the other ~35% from fixed income & data services revenue & mortgage technology
Though $ICE has traded for an average ~22x multiple over the past 5 years, I believe itโs justified for it to trade for 24x - 26x given its predictability & moat, among other things
$ICE is also still founder led โ Jeff Sprecher (Founder & CEO) continues to be a brilliant leader with strategic foresight & a strong track record of executing complex integrations
Today at $153๐ต $ICE appears to be a good consideration for investment with a decent margin of safety
#stocks #investing
___
๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐โผ๏ธ
๐๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐๐จ๐ง๐ญ๐๐ง๐ญ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ฉ๐ซ๐จ๐ฏ๐ข๐๐๐ ๐๐จ๐ซ ๐ข๐ง๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐๐ฅ ๐๐ง๐ ๐๐๐ฎ๐๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐๐ฅ ๐ฉ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ฉ๐จ๐ฌ๐๐ฌ ๐จ๐ง๐ฅ๐ฒ ๐๐ง๐ ๐๐จ๐๐ฌ ๐ง๐จ๐ญ ๐๐จ๐ง๐ฌ๐ญ๐ข๐ญ๐ฎ๐ญ๐ ๐ข๐ง๐ฏ๐๐ฌ๐ญ๐ฆ๐๐ง๐ญ ๐๐๐ฏ๐ข๐๐, ๐๐ง ๐จ๐๐๐๐ซ, ๐จ๐ซ ๐ ๐ฌ๐จ๐ฅ๐ข๐๐ข๐ญ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐ญ๐จ ๐๐ฎ๐ฒ ๐จ๐ซ ๐ฌ๐๐ฅ๐ฅ ๐๐ง๐ฒ ๐ฌ๐๐๐ฎ๐ซ๐ข๐ญ๐ฒ.
๐๐๐๐ฒ๐ฅ๐จ๐ง ๐๐๐ฉ๐ข๐ญ๐๐ฅยฎ ๐๐ง๐ ๐ข๐ญ๐ฌ ๐ซ๐๐ฉ๐ซ๐๐ฌ๐๐ง๐ญ๐๐ญ๐ข๐ฏ๐๐ฌ ๐ฆ๐๐ฒ ๐ก๐จ๐ฅ๐ ๐ฉ๐จ๐ฌ๐ข๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐ฌ๐๐๐ฎ๐ซ๐ข๐ญ๐ข๐๐ฌ ๐๐ข๐ฌ๐๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ฌ๐๐. ๐๐ง๐ฒ ๐จ๐ฉ๐ข๐ง๐ข๐จ๐ง๐ฌ ๐๐ฑ๐ฉ๐ซ๐๐ฌ๐ฌ๐๐ ๐๐ซ๐ ๐๐ฌ ๐จ๐ ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐๐๐ญ๐ ๐จ๐ ๐ฉ๐ฎ๐๐ฅ๐ข๐๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐๐ง๐ ๐ฌ๐ฎ๐๐ฃ๐๐๐ญ ๐ญ๐จ ๐๐ก๐๐ง๐ ๐ ๐ฐ๐ข๐ญ๐ก๐จ๐ฎ๐ญ ๐ง๐จ๐ญ๐ข๐๐.
๐๐ง๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐ก๐๐ฌ ๐๐๐๐ง ๐จ๐๐ญ๐๐ข๐ง๐๐ ๐๐ซ๐จ๐ฆ ๐ฌ๐จ๐ฎ๐ซ๐๐๐ฌ ๐๐๐ฅ๐ข๐๐ฏ๐๐ ๐ญ๐จ ๐๐ ๐ซ๐๐ฅ๐ข๐๐๐ฅ๐ ๐๐ฎ๐ญ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ง๐จ๐ญ ๐ ๐ฎ๐๐ซ๐๐ง๐ญ๐๐๐ ๐๐ฌ ๐ญ๐จ ๐๐๐๐ฎ๐ซ๐๐๐ฒ ๐จ๐ซ ๐๐จ๐ฆ๐ฉ๐ฅ๐๐ญ๐๐ง๐๐ฌ๐ฌ. ๐๐๐ฌ๐ญ ๐ฉ๐๐ซ๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ง๐๐ ๐๐จ๐๐ฌ ๐ง๐จ๐ญ ๐ ๐ฎ๐๐ซ๐๐ง๐ญ๐๐ ๐๐ฎ๐ญ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ ๐ซ๐๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ฅ๐ญ๐ฌ. tweet
RT @DimitryNakhla: A quality valuation analysis on $ICE ๐ง๐ฝโโ๏ธ
โขNTM P/E Ratio: 20.98x
โข5-Year Mean: 22.29x
โขNTM FCF Yield: 5.06%
โข5-Year Mean: 4.85%
As you can see, $ICE appears to be trading slightly near fair value
Going forward, investors can expect to receive ~6% MORE in EPS & ~4% MORE in FCF per share๐ง ***
Before we get into valuation, letโs take a look at why $ICE is a quality business
BALANCE SHEET๐
โขCash & Equivalents: $850M
โขLong-Term Debt: $17.36B
$ICE has an OK balance sheet, an A- S&P Credit Rating & 6.03x FFO Interest Coverage
RETURN ON CAPITAL๐
โข2020: 7.8%
โข2021: 8.6%
โข2022: 8.3%
โข2023: 7.5%
โข2024: 8.5%
โขLTM: 9.3%
RETURN ON EQUITY๐
โข2020: 11.4%
โข2021: 19.2%
โข2022: 6.6%
โข2023: 10.0%
โข2024: 10.5%
โขLTM: 11.5%
$ICE has decent return metrics as the company relies heavily on acquisitions
REVENUESโ
โข2015: $3.34B
โข2025E: $9.89B
โขCAGR: 11.46%
FREE CASH FLOWโ
โข2015: $1.12B
โข2025E: $3.97B
โขCAGR: 13.49%
NORMALIZED EPSโ
โข2015: $2.43
โข2025E: $6.90
โขCAGR: 11.00%
SHARE BUYBACKSโ
โข2015 Shares Outstanding: 559.00M
โขLTM Shares Outstanding: 576.00M
MARGINSโ
โขLTM Gross Margins: 100.0%
โขLTM Operating Margins: 49.6%
โขLTM Gross Margins: 32.4%
***NOW TO VALUATION ๐ง
As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~6% MORE in EPS & ~4% MORE in FCF per share
Using Benjamin Grahamโs 2G rule of thumb, $ICE has to grow earnings at a 10.49% CAGR over the next several years to justify its valuation
Today, analysts anticipate 2026 - 2028 EPS growth over the next few years to be slightly more than the (10.49%) required growth rate:
2025E: $6.90 (14% YoY) *FY Dec
2026E: $7.50 (9% YoY)
2027E: $8.36 (11% YoY)
2028E: $9.45 (13% YoY)
$ICE has a great track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, but letโs assume $ICE ends 2028 with $9.45 in EPS & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples
25x P/E: $236.25๐ต โฆ ~15.9% CAGR
24x P/E: $226.80๐ต โฆ ~14.4% CAGR
23x P/E: $217.35๐ต โฆ ~12.9% CAGR
22x P/E: $207.90๐ต โฆ ~11.3% CAGR
21x P/E: $198.45๐ต โฆ ~9.8% CAGR
As you can see, we have to assume ~22x earnings for $ICE to have double-digit CAGR potential
At 24x - 25x, $ICE can CAGR near the mid-teens
$ICE is a high-quality business with a wide-moat & generates ~65% of total revenue from their exchanges revenue โ the other ~35% from fixed income & data services revenue & mortgage technology
Though $ICE has traded for an average ~22x multiple over the past 5 years, I believe itโs justified for it to trade for 24x - 26x given its predictability & moat, among other things
$ICE is also still founder led โ Jeff Sprecher (Founder & CEO) continues to be a brilliant leader with strategic foresight & a strong track record of executing complex integrations
Today at $153๐ต $ICE appears to be a good consideration for investment with a decent margin of safety
#stocks #investing
___
๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐โผ๏ธ
๐๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐๐จ๐ง๐ญ๐๐ง๐ญ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ฉ๐ซ๐จ๐ฏ๐ข๐๐๐ ๐๐จ๐ซ ๐ข๐ง๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐๐ฅ ๐๐ง๐ ๐๐๐ฎ๐๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐๐ฅ ๐ฉ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ฉ๐จ๐ฌ๐๐ฌ ๐จ๐ง๐ฅ๐ฒ ๐๐ง๐ ๐๐จ๐๐ฌ ๐ง๐จ๐ญ ๐๐จ๐ง๐ฌ๐ญ๐ข๐ญ๐ฎ๐ญ๐ ๐ข๐ง๐ฏ๐๐ฌ๐ญ๐ฆ๐๐ง๐ญ ๐๐๐ฏ๐ข๐๐, ๐๐ง ๐จ๐๐๐๐ซ, ๐จ๐ซ ๐ ๐ฌ๐จ๐ฅ๐ข๐๐ข๐ญ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐ญ๐จ ๐๐ฎ๐ฒ ๐จ๐ซ ๐ฌ๐๐ฅ๐ฅ ๐๐ง๐ฒ ๐ฌ๐๐๐ฎ๐ซ๐ข๐ญ๐ฒ.
๐๐๐๐ฒ๐ฅ๐จ๐ง ๐๐๐ฉ๐ข๐ญ๐๐ฅยฎ ๐๐ง๐ ๐ข๐ญ๐ฌ ๐ซ๐๐ฉ๐ซ๐๐ฌ๐๐ง๐ญ๐๐ญ๐ข๐ฏ๐๐ฌ ๐ฆ๐๐ฒ ๐ก๐จ๐ฅ๐ ๐ฉ๐จ๐ฌ๐ข๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐ฌ๐๐๐ฎ๐ซ๐ข๐ญ๐ข๐๐ฌ ๐๐ข๐ฌ๐๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ฌ๐๐. ๐๐ง๐ฒ ๐จ๐ฉ๐ข๐ง๐ข๐จ๐ง๐ฌ ๐๐ฑ๐ฉ๐ซ๐๐ฌ๐ฌ๐๐ ๐๐ซ๐ ๐๐ฌ ๐จ๐ ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐๐๐ญ๐ ๐จ๐ ๐ฉ๐ฎ๐๐ฅ๐ข๐๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐๐ง๐ ๐ฌ๐ฎ๐๐ฃ๐๐๐ญ ๐ญ๐จ ๐๐ก๐๐ง๐ ๐ ๐ฐ๐ข๐ญ๐ก๐จ๐ฎ๐ญ ๐ง๐จ๐ญ๐ข๐๐.
๐๐ง๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐ก๐๐ฌ ๐๐๐๐ง ๐จ๐๐ญ๐๐ข๐ง๐๐ ๐๐ซ๐จ๐ฆ ๐ฌ๐จ๐ฎ๐ซ๐๐๐ฌ ๐๐๐ฅ๐ข๐๐ฏ๐๐ ๐ญ๐จ ๐๐ ๐ซ๐๐ฅ๐ข๐๐๐ฅ๐ ๐๐ฎ๐ญ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ง๐จ๐ญ ๐ ๐ฎ๐๐ซ๐๐ง๐ญ๐๐๐ ๐๐ฌ ๐ญ๐จ ๐๐๐๐ฎ๐ซ๐๐๐ฒ ๐จ๐ซ ๐๐จ๐ฆ๐ฉ๐ฅ๐๐ญ๐๐ง๐๐ฌ๐ฌ. ๐๐๐ฌ๐ญ ๐ฉ๐๐ซ๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ง๐๐ ๐๐จ๐๐ฌ ๐ง๐จ๐ญ ๐ ๐ฎ๐๐ซ๐๐ง๐ญ๐๐ ๐๐ฎ๐ญ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ ๐ซ๐๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ฅ๐ญ๐ฌ. tweet