Offshore
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Clark Square Capital
Here are the responses from the thread: "What's your favorite special situation?"
Thanks to everyone who shared an idea! ๐ https://t.co/ZAi46IBLHF
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Here are the responses from the thread: "What's your favorite special situation?"
Thanks to everyone who shared an idea! ๐ https://t.co/ZAi46IBLHF
Idea thread #2!
What's your favorite special situation? (Spin/m&a/etc any market cap).
Add a sentence explaining why you like it + valuation.
I will compile the responses and share them with everyone.
Please retweet for visibility. Thx in advance! ๐ tweet
Offshore
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App Economy Insights
Whoโs the real winner here?
$MSFT $GOOG $AMZN $META https://t.co/6uzY8dPYu7
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Whoโs the real winner here?
$MSFT $GOOG $AMZN $META https://t.co/6uzY8dPYu7
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Offshore
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Clark Square Capital
Shared a new idea earlier this weekโno paywall on this one. Be sure to check it out. https://t.co/vuA08Zj07S
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Shared a new idea earlier this weekโno paywall on this one. Be sure to check it out. https://t.co/vuA08Zj07S
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Offshore
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App Economy Insights
๐ How They Make Money โ October Report
The latest edition is out!
๐ฅ 70+ companies visualized across tech, finance, entertainment, and more.
What caught your eye this month?
๐ Download the full report:
https://t.co/PMf7sukbSW
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๐ How They Make Money โ October Report
The latest edition is out!
๐ฅ 70+ companies visualized across tech, finance, entertainment, and more.
What caught your eye this month?
๐ Download the full report:
https://t.co/PMf7sukbSW
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Offshore
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Quiver Quantitative
BREAKING: Microsoft just signed a $9.7B contract with $IREN.
We spent the last three months sounding the alarm on a purchase of $IREN stock by a US congressman.
The stock has now risen 330%.
Follow for more! https://t.co/XVXaeC9qIb
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BREAKING: Microsoft just signed a $9.7B contract with $IREN.
We spent the last three months sounding the alarm on a purchase of $IREN stock by a US congressman.
The stock has now risen 330%.
Follow for more! https://t.co/XVXaeC9qIb
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Offshore
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Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capitalยฎ
A quality valuation analysis on $MA ๐ง๐ฝโโ๏ธ
โขNTM P/E Ratio: 30.01x
โข3-Year Mean: 31.65x
โขNTM FCF Yield: 3.43%
โข3-Year Mean: 3.20%
As you can see, $MA appears to be trading slightly below fair value
Going forward, investors can receive ~5% MORE in EPS & ~7% MORE FCF per share ๐ง ***
Before we get into valuation, letโs take a look at why $MA is a great business
BALANCE SHEETโ
โขCash & Short-Term Inv: $10.65B
โขLong-Term Debt: $18.98B
$MA has a strong balance sheet, an A+ S&P Credit Rating, & 23x FFO Interest Coverage
RETURN ON CAPITALโ
โข2020: 40%
โข2021: 45%
โข2022: 59%
โข2023: 61%
โข2024: 64%
โขLTM: 68%
$MA maintains strong returns on capital, highlighting the financial efficiency of the business
REVENUESโ
โข2015: $9.67B
โข2025E: $32.69B
โขCAGR: 12.95%
FREE CASH FLOWโ
โข2015: $3.92B
โข2025E: $15.30B
โขCAGR: 14.58%
NORMALIZED EPSโ
โข2015: $3.43
โข2025E: $16.44
โขCAGR: 16.96%
SHARE BUYBACKSโ
โข2015 Shares Outstanding: 1.14B
โขLTM Shares Outstanding: 0.91B
By reducing its shares outstanding by 20%, $MA increased its EPS by 25% (assuming 0 growth)
MARGINSโ
โขLTM Gross Margins: 100%
โขLTM Operating Margins: 58.9%
โขLTM Net Income Margins: 45.3%
***NOW TO VALUATION ๐ง
As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~5% MORE in EPS & ~7% MORE FCF per share
Using Benjamin Grahamโs 2G rule of thumb, $MA has to grow earnings at a 15.01% CAGR over the next several years to justify its valuation
Today, analysts anticipate 2026 - 2028 EPS growth over the next few years to be greater than the (15.01%) required growth rate:
2025E: $16.44 (13% YoY) *FY Dec
2026E: $19.09 (16% YoY)
2027E: $22.19 (16% YoY)
2028E: $25.86 (17% YoY)
$MA has a good record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, but letโs assume $MA ends 2028 with $25.86 in EPS & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples
32x P/E: $827๐ต โฆ ~14.2% CAGR
31x P/E: $801๐ต โฆ ~13.1% CAGR
30x P/E: $775๐ต โฆ ~11.9% CAGR
29x P/E: $750๐ต โฆ ~10.7% CAGR
28x P/E: $724๐ต โฆ ~9.5% CAGR
As you can see, $MA appears to have attractive return potential if we assume >30x earnings multiple
Given its growth, quality, & historical averages, a >30x multiple appears more than reasonable for $MA
$MA currently trades at roughly the same forward valuation it did ahead of โLiberation Day,โ when it traded down to $480 on April 8, 2025
Today, at $552๐ต $MA appears to be a good consideration for investment
At $500๐ต $MA offers a stronger margin of safety, supporting a ~12% CAGR while assuming a 27x multiple
___
๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐โผ๏ธ
๐๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐๐จ๐ง๐ญ๐๐ง๐ญ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ฉ๐ซ๐จ๐ฏ๐ข๐๐๐ ๐๐จ๐ซ ๐ข๐ง๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐๐ฅ ๐๐ง๐ ๐๐๐ฎ๐๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐๐ฅ ๐ฉ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ฉ๐จ๐ฌ๐๐ฌ ๐จ๐ง๐ฅ๐ฒ ๐๐ง๐ ๐๐จ๐๐ฌ ๐ง๐จ๐ญ ๐๐จ๐ง๐ฌ๐ญ๐ข๐ญ๐ฎ๐ญ๐ ๐ข๐ง๐ฏ๐๐ฌ๐ญ๐ฆ๐๐ง๐ญ ๐๐๐ฏ๐ข๐๐, ๐๐ง ๐จ๐๐๐๐ซ, ๐จ๐ซ ๐ ๐ฌ๐จ๐ฅ๐ข๐๐ข๐ญ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐ญ๐จ ๐๐ฎ๐ฒ ๐จ๐ซ ๐ฌ๐๐ฅ๐ฅ ๐๐ง๐ฒ ๐ฌ๐๐๐ฎ๐ซ๐ข๐ญ๐ฒ.
๐๐๐๐ฒ๐ฅ๐จ๐ง ๐๐๐ฉ๐ข๐ญ๐๐ฅยฎ ๐๐ง๐ ๐ข๐ญ๐ฌ ๐ซ๐๐ฉ๐ซ๐๐ฌ๐๐ง๐ญ๐๐ญ๐ข๐ฏ๐๐ฌ ๐ฆ๐๐ฒ ๐ก๐จ๐ฅ๐ ๐ฉ๐จ๐ฌ๐ข๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐ฌ๐๐๐ฎ๐ซ๐ข๐ญ๐ข๐๐ฌ ๐๐ข๐ฌ๐๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ฌ๐๐. ๐๐ง๐ฒ ๐จ๐ฉ๐ข๐ง๐ข๐จ๐ง๐ฌ ๐๐ฑ๐ฉ๐ซ๐๐ฌ๐ฌ๐๐ ๐๐ซ๐ ๐๐ฌ ๐จ๐ ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐๐๐ญ๐ ๐จ๐ ๐ฉ๐ฎ๐๐ฅ๐ข๐๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐๐ง๐ ๐ฌ๐ฎ๐๐ฃ๐๐๐ญ ๐ญ๐จ ๐๐ก๐๐ง๐ ๐ ๐ฐ๐ข๐ญ๐ก๐จ๐ฎ๐ญ ๐ง๐จ๐ญ๐ข๐๐.
๐๐ง๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐ก๐๐ฌ ๐๐๐๐ง ๐จ๐๐ญ๐๐ข๐ง๐๐ ๐๐ซ๐จ๐ฆ ๐ฌ๐จ๐ฎ๐ซ๐๐๐ฌ ๐๐๐ฅ๐ข๐๐ฏ๐๐ ๐ญ๐จ ๐๐ ๐ซ๐๐ฅ๐ข๐๐๐ฅ๐ ๐๐ฎ๐ญ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ง๐จ๐ญ ๐ ๐ฎ๐๐ซ๐๐ง๐ญ๐๐๐ ๐๐ฌ ๐ญ๐จ ๐๐๐๐ฎ๐ซ๐๐๐ฒ ๐จ๐ซ ๐๐จ๐ฆ๐ฉ๐ฅ๐๐ญ๐๐ง๐๐ฌ๐ฌ. ๐๐๐ฌ๐ญ ๐ฉ๐๐ซ๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ง๐๐ ๐๐จ๐๐ฌ ๐ง๐จ๐ญ ๐ ๐ฎ๐๐ซ๐๐ง๐ญ๐๐ ๐๐ฎ๐ญ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ ๐ซ๐๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ฅ๐ญ๐ฌ.
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A quality valuation analysis on $MA ๐ง๐ฝโโ๏ธ
โขNTM P/E Ratio: 30.01x
โข3-Year Mean: 31.65x
โขNTM FCF Yield: 3.43%
โข3-Year Mean: 3.20%
As you can see, $MA appears to be trading slightly below fair value
Going forward, investors can receive ~5% MORE in EPS & ~7% MORE FCF per share ๐ง ***
Before we get into valuation, letโs take a look at why $MA is a great business
BALANCE SHEETโ
โขCash & Short-Term Inv: $10.65B
โขLong-Term Debt: $18.98B
$MA has a strong balance sheet, an A+ S&P Credit Rating, & 23x FFO Interest Coverage
RETURN ON CAPITALโ
โข2020: 40%
โข2021: 45%
โข2022: 59%
โข2023: 61%
โข2024: 64%
โขLTM: 68%
$MA maintains strong returns on capital, highlighting the financial efficiency of the business
REVENUESโ
โข2015: $9.67B
โข2025E: $32.69B
โขCAGR: 12.95%
FREE CASH FLOWโ
โข2015: $3.92B
โข2025E: $15.30B
โขCAGR: 14.58%
NORMALIZED EPSโ
โข2015: $3.43
โข2025E: $16.44
โขCAGR: 16.96%
SHARE BUYBACKSโ
โข2015 Shares Outstanding: 1.14B
โขLTM Shares Outstanding: 0.91B
By reducing its shares outstanding by 20%, $MA increased its EPS by 25% (assuming 0 growth)
MARGINSโ
โขLTM Gross Margins: 100%
โขLTM Operating Margins: 58.9%
โขLTM Net Income Margins: 45.3%
***NOW TO VALUATION ๐ง
As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~5% MORE in EPS & ~7% MORE FCF per share
Using Benjamin Grahamโs 2G rule of thumb, $MA has to grow earnings at a 15.01% CAGR over the next several years to justify its valuation
Today, analysts anticipate 2026 - 2028 EPS growth over the next few years to be greater than the (15.01%) required growth rate:
2025E: $16.44 (13% YoY) *FY Dec
2026E: $19.09 (16% YoY)
2027E: $22.19 (16% YoY)
2028E: $25.86 (17% YoY)
$MA has a good record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, but letโs assume $MA ends 2028 with $25.86 in EPS & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples
32x P/E: $827๐ต โฆ ~14.2% CAGR
31x P/E: $801๐ต โฆ ~13.1% CAGR
30x P/E: $775๐ต โฆ ~11.9% CAGR
29x P/E: $750๐ต โฆ ~10.7% CAGR
28x P/E: $724๐ต โฆ ~9.5% CAGR
As you can see, $MA appears to have attractive return potential if we assume >30x earnings multiple
Given its growth, quality, & historical averages, a >30x multiple appears more than reasonable for $MA
$MA currently trades at roughly the same forward valuation it did ahead of โLiberation Day,โ when it traded down to $480 on April 8, 2025
Today, at $552๐ต $MA appears to be a good consideration for investment
At $500๐ต $MA offers a stronger margin of safety, supporting a ~12% CAGR while assuming a 27x multiple
___
๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐โผ๏ธ
๐๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐๐จ๐ง๐ญ๐๐ง๐ญ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ฉ๐ซ๐จ๐ฏ๐ข๐๐๐ ๐๐จ๐ซ ๐ข๐ง๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐๐ฅ ๐๐ง๐ ๐๐๐ฎ๐๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐๐ฅ ๐ฉ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ฉ๐จ๐ฌ๐๐ฌ ๐จ๐ง๐ฅ๐ฒ ๐๐ง๐ ๐๐จ๐๐ฌ ๐ง๐จ๐ญ ๐๐จ๐ง๐ฌ๐ญ๐ข๐ญ๐ฎ๐ญ๐ ๐ข๐ง๐ฏ๐๐ฌ๐ญ๐ฆ๐๐ง๐ญ ๐๐๐ฏ๐ข๐๐, ๐๐ง ๐จ๐๐๐๐ซ, ๐จ๐ซ ๐ ๐ฌ๐จ๐ฅ๐ข๐๐ข๐ญ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐ญ๐จ ๐๐ฎ๐ฒ ๐จ๐ซ ๐ฌ๐๐ฅ๐ฅ ๐๐ง๐ฒ ๐ฌ๐๐๐ฎ๐ซ๐ข๐ญ๐ฒ.
๐๐๐๐ฒ๐ฅ๐จ๐ง ๐๐๐ฉ๐ข๐ญ๐๐ฅยฎ ๐๐ง๐ ๐ข๐ญ๐ฌ ๐ซ๐๐ฉ๐ซ๐๐ฌ๐๐ง๐ญ๐๐ญ๐ข๐ฏ๐๐ฌ ๐ฆ๐๐ฒ ๐ก๐จ๐ฅ๐ ๐ฉ๐จ๐ฌ๐ข๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐ฌ๐๐๐ฎ๐ซ๐ข๐ญ๐ข๐๐ฌ ๐๐ข๐ฌ๐๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ฌ๐๐. ๐๐ง๐ฒ ๐จ๐ฉ๐ข๐ง๐ข๐จ๐ง๐ฌ ๐๐ฑ๐ฉ๐ซ๐๐ฌ๐ฌ๐๐ ๐๐ซ๐ ๐๐ฌ ๐จ๐ ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐๐๐ญ๐ ๐จ๐ ๐ฉ๐ฎ๐๐ฅ๐ข๐๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐๐ง๐ ๐ฌ๐ฎ๐๐ฃ๐๐๐ญ ๐ญ๐จ ๐๐ก๐๐ง๐ ๐ ๐ฐ๐ข๐ญ๐ก๐จ๐ฎ๐ญ ๐ง๐จ๐ญ๐ข๐๐.
๐๐ง๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐ก๐๐ฌ ๐๐๐๐ง ๐จ๐๐ญ๐๐ข๐ง๐๐ ๐๐ซ๐จ๐ฆ ๐ฌ๐จ๐ฎ๐ซ๐๐๐ฌ ๐๐๐ฅ๐ข๐๐ฏ๐๐ ๐ญ๐จ ๐๐ ๐ซ๐๐ฅ๐ข๐๐๐ฅ๐ ๐๐ฎ๐ญ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ง๐จ๐ญ ๐ ๐ฎ๐๐ซ๐๐ง๐ญ๐๐๐ ๐๐ฌ ๐ญ๐จ ๐๐๐๐ฎ๐ซ๐๐๐ฒ ๐จ๐ซ ๐๐จ๐ฆ๐ฉ๐ฅ๐๐ญ๐๐ง๐๐ฌ๐ฌ. ๐๐๐ฌ๐ญ ๐ฉ๐๐ซ๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ง๐๐ ๐๐จ๐๐ฌ ๐ง๐จ๐ญ ๐ ๐ฎ๐๐ซ๐๐ง๐ญ๐๐ ๐๐ฎ๐ญ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ ๐ซ๐๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ฅ๐ญ๐ฌ.
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