Yellowbrick Investing
$AIRO short

$AIRO (AIRO Group Holdings Inc.) is an interesting potential short to watch over the next few months. Have a more in-depth write-up that I'm working on and willing to share to anyone interested.

To summarize:

AIRO is a roll-up of small aerospace businesses with little strategic alignment. Management touts this as a "aerospace and defense innovator", capitalizing on the broader hype going on with drones and eVTOLs.

Potential short because:

1. AIRO is reliant on dilutive and predatory related-party financings to sustain operations. Management has already shown a willingness early on overpromise and underdeliver, and to disregard governance and engage in value-destructive practices for their own benefit

(Primary offering raised $69mm gross, only ~$17mm going towards supporting the growth narrative management promotes, the rest of the funds were used to repay investor notes which carried predatory terms. Disclosure around these notes is intentionally left opaque, but form 4s reveal that the Chairman, CEO, and COO were beneficiaries / secondary offering only 2-months after IPO, with a significant portion of proceeds noted to be used for buying out material management stakes prior to lock-up expiry; 15% implied dilution).

2. AIRO currently screens well due to one-time accounting gimmicks that will subside – ~$6mm reported vs. ~($30mm) normalized net income (from debt-to-equity settlements and adjustments to FV of contingent consideration). Business is fundamentally weak – eVTOL business exists as only AI images on their website, and the company itself derives ~90% of revenue from Sky-Watch (drone segment with only 1 major product), which has no discernable competitive advantage or durable contracts. Sky-Watch has temporarily benefited from donations and defense hardware testing initiatives in Ukraine (third-party expert calls echo this), meaning sales are likely to deflect

3. Executives (Chairman and COO) were key figures at UpHealth and Ocean Biomedical (both heavily embroiled in lawsuits, accused of fraud, and went to zero)

The tricky part here is when and how does this break, which I don't have a view on at this point. However, some things to consider is that AIRO has ~$101mm of cash on the BS and $21.8mm of debt to pay off NTM, with ~3-4 Qs left using last quarters burn as run-rate. There's a case to be made that burn should be a lot higher given near term pressures on working capital (mentioned by mgmt), along with unfunded capex in their eVTOL segment. Past companies ran by these guys have also had a history of diluting their investors (17% dilution through PP at UpHealth, ATM and toxic convertible structure at Ocean Biomed). - Penny Dust
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Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
Moody’s $MCO Q3 2025 Report 🗓️

✅ REV: $2.01B (+11% YoY)
✅ EPS: $3.92 (+22% YoY) https://t.co/e82YBsJ5he

7. Moody’s $MCO (Wed AM)

🗓️ REV Est: $1.95B (+7%)
🗓️ EPS Est: $3.68 (+15%)

💵 NTM P/E: 31x
💵 NTM FCF Yield: 3.25%

$MCO analytics segment has been its primary growth engine over the past decade https://t.co/ImtOhHyi7g - Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
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Quiver Quantitative
BREAKING: Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene just filed new stock trades.

She bought up to $15K of Bitcoin, $IBIT.

Full trade list up on Quiver. https://t.co/3t2WdR6aol
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Investing visuals
$NFLX slides 8% after a minor earnings miss and a tax charge hitting margins.

Zoom out and it’s still a compounding machine, up +30% year-to-date.

Q3 earnings visualized: https://t.co/rUidGvlzS2
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Quiver Quantitative
JUST IN: Nancy Pelosi has said that she will make an announcement next month about her political future.

If she retires from Congress, you will no longer be able to track her portfolio on Quiver.
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Quiver Quantitative
JUST IN: The Republican National Committee now has $85M of cash on hand.

The DNC has just $12M. https://t.co/78IF6ULgL1
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Capital Employed
If you're seeking research on a specific stock make sure to take a look on the Company Index page.

Over 1,500 public companies logged with links to the appropriate research/write-ups.

https://t.co/ARUJNHSgMi
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Investing visuals
At the time of the post below, $NBIS traded at ~$93.

If you felt like you missed it back then, now would be a great time to give it another look.

The stock is down 30% from its peak and hovering around ~$98👌

“ I missed $NBIS ”

If you feel like the $NBIS train has departed and you’re too late, here are a few things I’d like you to know:

1 - Do not anchor to the prior stock price
The $MSFT deal massively de-risked the stock. There’s now a clear path to sustained triple-digit revenue growth in the years ahead. And mind you – $MSFT doesn’t make these deals lightheartedly. It’s a testament to the quality $NBIS delivers.

This deal also increases $NBIS mindshare among high-profile customers. I wouldn’t be surprised if we see more large deals with other high profile names in the coming months.

So even after the +50% gain yesterday, the story is still very early. We’re at an inflection point where the snowball is gaining traction and is likely to accelerate. The $3B capital raise $NBIS announced today is a very smart and timely move to keep momentum and invest for future growth.

There’s still a huge runway, and if $NBIS keeps executing the way it has, the stock will follow. Don’t look back – look ahead.

2 - Think long term
I used to worry about whether I should buy a stock at $76 or wait for it to dip to $67. Over time, I realized how pointless that is. If the stock goes to $297, why bother about $76 vs $67? Entry prices are overrated.

What matters is seeing the potential, acting on it, and sizing your position appropriately to match your conviction.

3 - Do not chase either
I’m not saying you should chase the stock higher. Here’s what I would do if I weren’t already a shareholder with a full position: I would initiate a position around ~5% of my portfolio. That way, I’d benefit if it runs, but I’d also have room to add significantly – either if the stock dips without fundamentals deteriorating, or if the business executes so well that I average up. It's not financial advice of course, just how I’d personally approach it.

4 - Stick to what fits you best
Hypergrowth investing isn’t for everyone. If you’re not familiar with the business or the industry, do your due diligence before even considering a share.

I’ve worked in tech for a decade and have a tech-only portfolio. $NBIS fits right in my circle of competence. But this style isn’t for everyone. It requires staying sharp in a fast-moving industry and understanding the dynamics.

My two cents, cheers! 🙏 - Investing visuals
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AkhenOsiris
$RBRK

New Rubrik Agent Cloud Accelerates Trusted Enterprise AI Agent Deployments

Industry's first solution to enable organizations to adopt agents at scale with the ability to monitor, govern and remediate

Discovers agents built on platforms such as OpenAI, Microsoft Copilot Studio, and Amazon Bedrock to provide a single pane of glass for AI operations

Where most tools stop at observability, only Rubrik empowers organizations to rewind agent mistakes
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AkhenOsiris
$APP

Oppenheimer: 'Positive Takeaways from E-Comm Expert Calls'

Target $740
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