Yellowbrick Investing
Short $UDMY

I am short $UDMY, PT 4.5/sh for >30% downside

it has ~2.5/sh in net cash but think the chances of it attaining a breakeven fcfe level is unlikely if they are unable to reaccelerate revenue growth. So the equity stub is worth very little.

They need at least ~13% adj. EBITDA margins by my estimate to break even on FCFE. If the enterprise continues to decelerate total revenue growth will be negative in a few quarters and the chance of reaching scale will become extremely remote. I think they'll maybe earn .25/sh of FCFE by 2027, but they may need to sacrifice growth to obtain this.

I've provided one scenario of stagnant growth but 15.5% Adj. EBITDA margins by 2027 which is sort of in line with management's LT adj. ebitda target of 17-20% and what I think would likely happen to revenues if they got there -- implied here is a large reduction of SG&A for marketing/ad spend, and or reduction of sales people. Here the PT is around 4.5/sh assuming an 8% discount rate and 0% terminal growth.

Consensus estimates have both margin and revenue growth expansion forecasted which does not seem likely given the recent trends of deceleration across both segments of their business which presumably have no first principles explanation -- more of the typical higher churn, lower NDR, difficult macro etc -- but i suspect its due to some sort of declining value proposition of their services or alternatives like AI agent based learning.

My longer term vision is that human generated video content and learning as well as the ~250k lessons of inventory that UDMY champions to have and advantage them may become obsolete in terms of both content and distribution method due to AI.

It's more of a suspicion than some sort of confirmation so we'll see how the next quarter proceeds but if this bear thesis is correct, then we should see further deceleration of growth or some sort of margin deterioration if growth holds up.

On their enterprise business management has provided a prediction of a near-term bottoming then improvement path: NDR to bottom in Q3’25, be flat in Q4’25, and accelerate in Q1’26, citing (1) a larger pipeline (record $100k+ deal count in Q2), (2) higher win rates, (3) outsourcing SMB renewals so internal teams focus upmarket, and (4) a new Chief Customer Experience Officer to improve renewal/expansion motion. I fail to understand why they have this prediction, what first principles reason do they provide to justify their views--I could not find one. - Fierce_beast
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ToffCap
RT @LuxOpesResearch: There we go. New one out👇👇

🇪🇺 earnings season is ramping up!

🇳🇱 ASML $ASML
🇫🇷 Ekinops $EKI
🇪🇸 Faes Farma $FAE
🇩🇪 FlatexDEGIRO $FTK
🇦🇹 Telekom Austria $TKA
🇫🇷 Havas $HAVAS
🇫🇷 LVMH $MC
🇨🇭 ABB $ABBN
🇫🇷 HighCo $HCO
🇧🇪 Barco $BAR
🇫🇷 Sartorius Stedim Biotech $DIM
🇫🇷 GL Events $GLO
🇨🇭 VAT Group $VACN
🇫🇷 Sidetrade $ALBFR
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Yellowbrick Investing
Anybody ever looked at average forward returns of companies that raised guidance?
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Quiver Quantitative
President Trump's meme coin has now fallen 92% from its all-time high.

Melania Trump's meme coin has fallen 99%.

Still have not seen any politicians buying either of them.
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Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
RT @JaredKubin: "Quality (closed at 20-year lows with unprofitable tech +25% in 10 sessions and high SI names on pace for their best month of the year)"

**what a line from the MS Trading desk this am... if you have been following LIQUIDATION NATION you have been all over this
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Quiver Quantitative
[NEW FROM OUR DATA]

Jasmine Crockett just disclosed $2.7M in new fundraising in Q3.

This is her largest quarter ever. https://t.co/QmZqfkKeEp
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Quiver Quantitative
Representative Mike Collins has bought up to $165K of a meme coin called Ski Mask Dog over the last year.

It has now fallen around 80% since his first purchase. https://t.co/GpWSDw6nlj
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Investing visuals
Just shared the $ASML Q3 one-pager breakdown with subscribers.

From now on, all business breakdowns will be sub-exclusive. They take a lot of time to make, and I want to give paying subs more value.

Consider joining if you find these breakdowns helpful!
Up next: $TSM. https://t.co/gVIkqYXQzz
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Quiver Quantitative
A Polymarket trader has bet $250K on Xi Jinping being out of power by the end of the year.

The same trader won $786K by predicting that Biden would drop out in 2024.

Still seems very unlikely, but will be keeping an eye out for other trades in the market.
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Yellowbrick Investing
Added 62 new stock write-ups to the site (pt 1):
@IggyOnInvesting - $6086.T
@BlokeOak57182 - $AAZ.L (pass)
@NuggetCapital - $HR-UN.TO
@acidinvestments - $AQZ.AX, $GRND
@adriantford - $CRL.L (update)
@alc2022 (earnings updates) - $OSCR, $ASTS
@HiddenRockCap - $PZZA https://t.co/eIJWanNl19
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