Offshore
Video
Umesh
While X is getting flooded with “insane” Veo 3.1 reactions,
Tried the same prompt on Veo 3.1. Not so impressive tbh (for this prompt)
Each model reacts to any prompt in its own way. Some work well and others not. https://t.co/o0znx6h1qp
tweet
While X is getting flooded with “insane” Veo 3.1 reactions,
Tried the same prompt on Veo 3.1. Not so impressive tbh (for this prompt)
Each model reacts to any prompt in its own way. Some work well and others not. https://t.co/o0znx6h1qp
Perspective!
Prompt : The shot opens tight on a man’s face in morning city light. Old-style coat. Watchful eyes. The camera moves over his shoulder and tilts to the street: steady traffic, buses at a stop, screens updating on glass.We widen, circling as he steps to a rooftop edge. A train slides across a bridge. Cyclists thread a crosswalk. Then the camera snaps upward fast. Windows flatten to dots. Blocks and lanes form a clear grid. We rise higher: bridges draw sharp lines to the mainland, docks and piers ring the shore. Water surrounds everything.Higher still. Roads become pale threads, trains little beads, ferries leaving thin wakes. The full island sits in frame, bright center, softer edges, blue water on all sides. Far below, he’s a single point on a roof, still in a city that keeps moving. The camera holds, then continues climbing into open sky.
Created using @Kling_ai 2.5 Turbo tweet
Offshore
Photo
Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
A quality valuation analysis on $ABNB 🧘🏽♂️
•NTM P/E Ratio: 28.17x
•3-Year Mean: 32.18x
•NTM FCF Yield: 6.18%
•3-Year Mean: 5.08%
As you can see, $ABNB appears to be trading below fair value
Going forward, investors can expect to receive ~14% MORE in earnings per share & ~22% MORE in FCF per share🧠***
Before we get into valuation, let’s take a look at why $ABNB is a quality business
BALANCE SHEET✅
•Cash & Equivalents: $11.36B
•Long-Term Debt: $0
$ABNB has an excellent balance sheet
RETURN ON CAPITAL❌➡️✅
•2020: (65.7%)
•2021: 7.5%
•2022: 24.0%
•2023: 14.5%
•2024: 23.8%
•LTM: 25.9%
RETURN ON EQUITY❌➡️✅
•2020: (172.2%)
•2021: (9.2%)
•2022: 36.6%
•2023: 69.8%
•2024: 31.9%
•LTM: 33.3%
$ABNB has improved its return metrics, highlighting the financial efficiency of the business
REVENUES✅
•2019: $4.81B
•2024: $11.10B
•CAGR: 18.20%
CASH FROM OPERATIONS✅
•2019: $0.22B
•2024: $4.52B
•CAGR: 81.47%
NORMALIZED EPS ESTIMATES✅
•2026: $4.78
•2028: $6.66
•CAGR: 18.03%
SHARE BUYBACKS❌
•2019 Shares Outstanding: 260.56M
•LTM Shares Outstanding: 634.00M
MARGINS✅
•LTM Gross Margins: 83.2%
•LTM Operating Margins: 22.5%
•LTM Gross Margins: 22.7%
***NOW TO VALUATION 🧠
As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~14% MORE in EPS & ~22% MORE FCF per share
Using Benjamin Graham’s 2G rule of thumb, $ABNB has to grow earnings at a 14.14% CAGR over the next several years to justify its valuation
Today, analysts anticipate 2026 - 2028 EPS growth over the next few years to be greater than the (14.14%) required growth rate:
2025E: $4.23 (3% YoY)
2026E: $4.78 (13% YoY)
2027E: $5.60 (17% YoY)
2028E: $6.66 (19% YoY) *FY Dec
$ABNB has a great track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, so let’s assume $ABNB ends 2028 with $6.66 in EPS & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples
32x P/E: $213.12💵 … ~18.0% CAGR
31x P/E: $206.46💵 … ~16.8% CAGR
30x P/E: $199.80💵 … ~15.6% CAGR
29x P/E: $193.14💵 … ~14.4% CAGR
28x P/E: $156.80💵 … ~13.2% CAGR
27x P/E: $179.82💵 … ~11.9% CAGR
As you can see, $ABNB appears to have attractive double digit CAGR potential at 27x
I believe $ABNB could reasonably demand a 28x - 30x multiple (given its growth rate, margins, & strong UI and brand)
Moreover, $ABNB still has a lot of potential to monetize its marketplace and activate new growth levers, further enhancing its future growth prospects
Today at $125💵 $ABNB appears to be trading at a decent value proposition & is a good consideration for investment
I consider $ABNB to have a large margin of safety closer to $105💵 where I can expect mid-teens CAGR potential assuming a 25x end multiple in 2028
#stocks #investing
___
𝐃𝐈𝐒𝐂𝐋𝐎𝐒𝐔𝐑𝐄‼️: 𝐓𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐬 𝐍𝐎𝐓 𝐈𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐀𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞. 𝐁𝐚𝐛𝐲𝐥𝐨𝐧 𝐂𝐚𝐩𝐢𝐭𝐚𝐥® 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐢𝐭𝐬 𝐫𝐞𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐞𝐬 𝐦𝐚𝐲 𝐡𝐚𝐯𝐞 𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐞𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐞𝐬 𝐝𝐢𝐬𝐜𝐮𝐬𝐬𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭.
𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐚𝐥 𝐩𝐮𝐫𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐞𝐬 𝐨𝐧𝐥𝐲 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐬𝐡𝐨𝐮𝐥𝐝 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐛𝐞 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐮𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐚𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞 𝐭𝐨 𝐦𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐩𝐞𝐜𝐢𝐟𝐢𝐜 𝐧𝐞𝐞𝐝𝐬 𝐨𝐟 𝐚𝐧𝐲 𝐢𝐧𝐝𝐢𝐯𝐢𝐝𝐮𝐚𝐥 𝐨𝐫 𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐮𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧. 𝐏𝐚𝐬𝐭 𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐞 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞 𝐨𝐟 𝐟𝐮𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐮𝐥𝐭𝐬.
𝐈𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐡𝐚𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐞𝐧 𝐨𝐛𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐫𝐨𝐦 𝐬𝐨𝐮𝐫𝐜𝐞𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐝 𝐭𝐨 𝐛𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐚𝐛𝐥𝐞, 𝐛𝐮𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐭𝐨 𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐩𝐥𝐞𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐞𝐬𝐬 𝐨𝐫 𝐚𝐜𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐚𝐜𝐲.
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A quality valuation analysis on $ABNB 🧘🏽♂️
•NTM P/E Ratio: 28.17x
•3-Year Mean: 32.18x
•NTM FCF Yield: 6.18%
•3-Year Mean: 5.08%
As you can see, $ABNB appears to be trading below fair value
Going forward, investors can expect to receive ~14% MORE in earnings per share & ~22% MORE in FCF per share🧠***
Before we get into valuation, let’s take a look at why $ABNB is a quality business
BALANCE SHEET✅
•Cash & Equivalents: $11.36B
•Long-Term Debt: $0
$ABNB has an excellent balance sheet
RETURN ON CAPITAL❌➡️✅
•2020: (65.7%)
•2021: 7.5%
•2022: 24.0%
•2023: 14.5%
•2024: 23.8%
•LTM: 25.9%
RETURN ON EQUITY❌➡️✅
•2020: (172.2%)
•2021: (9.2%)
•2022: 36.6%
•2023: 69.8%
•2024: 31.9%
•LTM: 33.3%
$ABNB has improved its return metrics, highlighting the financial efficiency of the business
REVENUES✅
•2019: $4.81B
•2024: $11.10B
•CAGR: 18.20%
CASH FROM OPERATIONS✅
•2019: $0.22B
•2024: $4.52B
•CAGR: 81.47%
NORMALIZED EPS ESTIMATES✅
•2026: $4.78
•2028: $6.66
•CAGR: 18.03%
SHARE BUYBACKS❌
•2019 Shares Outstanding: 260.56M
•LTM Shares Outstanding: 634.00M
MARGINS✅
•LTM Gross Margins: 83.2%
•LTM Operating Margins: 22.5%
•LTM Gross Margins: 22.7%
***NOW TO VALUATION 🧠
As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~14% MORE in EPS & ~22% MORE FCF per share
Using Benjamin Graham’s 2G rule of thumb, $ABNB has to grow earnings at a 14.14% CAGR over the next several years to justify its valuation
Today, analysts anticipate 2026 - 2028 EPS growth over the next few years to be greater than the (14.14%) required growth rate:
2025E: $4.23 (3% YoY)
2026E: $4.78 (13% YoY)
2027E: $5.60 (17% YoY)
2028E: $6.66 (19% YoY) *FY Dec
$ABNB has a great track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, so let’s assume $ABNB ends 2028 with $6.66 in EPS & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples
32x P/E: $213.12💵 … ~18.0% CAGR
31x P/E: $206.46💵 … ~16.8% CAGR
30x P/E: $199.80💵 … ~15.6% CAGR
29x P/E: $193.14💵 … ~14.4% CAGR
28x P/E: $156.80💵 … ~13.2% CAGR
27x P/E: $179.82💵 … ~11.9% CAGR
As you can see, $ABNB appears to have attractive double digit CAGR potential at 27x
I believe $ABNB could reasonably demand a 28x - 30x multiple (given its growth rate, margins, & strong UI and brand)
Moreover, $ABNB still has a lot of potential to monetize its marketplace and activate new growth levers, further enhancing its future growth prospects
Today at $125💵 $ABNB appears to be trading at a decent value proposition & is a good consideration for investment
I consider $ABNB to have a large margin of safety closer to $105💵 where I can expect mid-teens CAGR potential assuming a 25x end multiple in 2028
#stocks #investing
___
𝐃𝐈𝐒𝐂𝐋𝐎𝐒𝐔𝐑𝐄‼️: 𝐓𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐬 𝐍𝐎𝐓 𝐈𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐀𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞. 𝐁𝐚𝐛𝐲𝐥𝐨𝐧 𝐂𝐚𝐩𝐢𝐭𝐚𝐥® 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐢𝐭𝐬 𝐫𝐞𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐞𝐬 𝐦𝐚𝐲 𝐡𝐚𝐯𝐞 𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐞𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐞𝐬 𝐝𝐢𝐬𝐜𝐮𝐬𝐬𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭.
𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐚𝐥 𝐩𝐮𝐫𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐞𝐬 𝐨𝐧𝐥𝐲 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐬𝐡𝐨𝐮𝐥𝐝 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐛𝐞 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐮𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐚𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞 𝐭𝐨 𝐦𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐩𝐞𝐜𝐢𝐟𝐢𝐜 𝐧𝐞𝐞𝐝𝐬 𝐨𝐟 𝐚𝐧𝐲 𝐢𝐧𝐝𝐢𝐯𝐢𝐝𝐮𝐚𝐥 𝐨𝐫 𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐮𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧. 𝐏𝐚𝐬𝐭 𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐞 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞 𝐨𝐟 𝐟𝐮𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐮𝐥𝐭𝐬.
𝐈𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐡𝐚𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐞𝐧 𝐨𝐛𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐫𝐨𝐦 𝐬𝐨𝐮𝐫𝐜𝐞𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐝 𝐭𝐨 𝐛𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐚𝐛𝐥𝐞, 𝐛𝐮𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐭𝐨 𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐩𝐥𝐞𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐞𝐬𝐬 𝐨𝐫 𝐚𝐜𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐚𝐜𝐲.
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Offshore
Photo
Quiver Quantitative
JUST IN: Representative Robert Bresnahan just disclosed massive options bets.
He filed up to $175K of trades in $QQQ, $SPY, and $IWM call options.
He says the trades were made by advisors.
Full trade list up on Quiver. https://t.co/i4qfEC2csZ
tweet
JUST IN: Representative Robert Bresnahan just disclosed massive options bets.
He filed up to $175K of trades in $QQQ, $SPY, and $IWM call options.
He says the trades were made by advisors.
Full trade list up on Quiver. https://t.co/i4qfEC2csZ
tweet
Offshore
Photo
Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
A quality valuation analysis on $ABNB 🧘🏽♂️
•NTM P/E Ratio: 28.17x
•3-Year Mean: 32.18x
•NTM FCF Yield: 6.18%
•3-Year Mean: 5.08%
As you can see, $ABNB appears to be trading below fair value
Going forward, investors can expect to receive ~14% MORE in earnings per share & ~22% MORE in FCF per share🧠***
Before we get into valuation, let’s take a look at why $ABNB is a quality business
BALANCE SHEET✅
•Cash & Equivalents: $11.36B
•Long-Term Debt: $0
$ABNB has an excellent balance sheet
RETURN ON CAPITAL❌➡️✅
•2020: (65.7%)
•2021: 7.5%
•2022: 24.0%
•2023: 14.5%
•2024: 23.8%
•LTM: 25.9%
RETURN ON EQUITY❌➡️✅
•2020: (172.2%)
•2021: (9.2%)
•2022: 36.6%
•2023: 69.8%
•2024: 31.9%
•LTM: 33.3%
$ABNB has improved its return metrics, highlighting the financial efficiency of the business
REVENUES✅
•2019: $4.81B
•2024: $11.10B
•CAGR: 18.20%
CASH FROM OPERATIONS✅
•2019: $0.22B
•2024: $4.52B
•CAGR: 81.47%
NORMALIZED EPS ESTIMATES✅
•2026: $4.78
•2028: $6.66
•CAGR: 18.03%
SHARE BUYBACKS❌
•2019 Shares Outstanding: 260.56M
•LTM Shares Outstanding: 634.00M
MARGINS✅
•LTM Gross Margins: 83.2%
•LTM Operating Margins: 22.5%
•LTM Gross Margins: 22.7%
***NOW TO VALUATION 🧠
As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~14% MORE in EPS & ~22% MORE FCF per share
Using Benjamin Graham’s 2G rule of thumb, $ABNB has to grow earnings at a 14.14% CAGR over the next several years to justify its valuation
Today, analysts anticipate 2026 - 2028 EPS growth over the next few years to be greater than the (14.14%) required growth rate:
2025E: $4.23 (3% YoY)
2026E: $4.78 (13% YoY)
2027E: $5.60 (17% YoY)
2028E: $6.66 (19% YoY) *FY Dec
$ABNB has a great track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, so let’s assume $ABNB ends 2028 with $6.66 in EPS & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples
32x P/E: $213.12💵 … ~18.0% CAGR
31x P/E: $206.46💵 … ~16.8% CAGR
30x P/E: $199.80💵 … ~15.6% CAGR
29x P/E: $193.14💵 … ~14.4% CAGR
28x P/E: $186.48💵 … ~13.2% CAGR
27x P/E: $179.82💵 … ~11.9% CAGR
As you can see, $ABNB appears to have attractive double digit CAGR potential at 27x
I believe $ABNB could reasonably demand a 28x - 30x multiple (given its growth rate, margins, & strong UI and brand)
Moreover, $ABNB still has a lot of potential to monetize its marketplace and activate new growth levers, further enhancing its future growth prospects
Today at $125💵 $ABNB appears to be trading at a decent value proposition & is a good consideration for investment
I consider $ABNB to have a large margin of safety closer to $105💵 where I can expect mid-teens CAGR potential assuming a 25x end multiple in 2028
#stocks #investing
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𝐃𝐈𝐒𝐂𝐋𝐎𝐒𝐔𝐑𝐄‼️: 𝐓𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐬 𝐍𝐎𝐓 𝐈𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐀𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞. 𝐁𝐚𝐛𝐲𝐥𝐨𝐧 𝐂𝐚𝐩𝐢𝐭𝐚𝐥® 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐢𝐭𝐬 𝐫𝐞𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐞𝐬 𝐦𝐚𝐲 𝐡𝐚𝐯𝐞 𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐞𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐞𝐬 𝐝𝐢𝐬𝐜𝐮𝐬𝐬𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭.
𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐚𝐥 𝐩𝐮𝐫𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐞𝐬 𝐨𝐧𝐥𝐲 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐬𝐡𝐨𝐮𝐥𝐝 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐛𝐞 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐮𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐚𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞 𝐭𝐨 𝐦𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐩𝐞𝐜𝐢𝐟𝐢𝐜 𝐧𝐞𝐞𝐝𝐬 𝐨𝐟 𝐚𝐧𝐲 𝐢𝐧𝐝𝐢𝐯𝐢𝐝𝐮𝐚𝐥 𝐨𝐫 𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐮𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧. 𝐏𝐚𝐬𝐭 𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐞 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞 𝐨𝐟 𝐟𝐮𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐮𝐥𝐭𝐬.
𝐈𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐡𝐚𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐞𝐧 𝐨𝐛𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐫𝐨𝐦 𝐬𝐨𝐮𝐫𝐜𝐞𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐝 𝐭𝐨 𝐛𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐚𝐛𝐥𝐞, 𝐛𝐮𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐭𝐨 𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐩𝐥𝐞𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐞𝐬𝐬 𝐨𝐫 𝐚𝐜𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐚𝐜𝐲.
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A quality valuation analysis on $ABNB 🧘🏽♂️
•NTM P/E Ratio: 28.17x
•3-Year Mean: 32.18x
•NTM FCF Yield: 6.18%
•3-Year Mean: 5.08%
As you can see, $ABNB appears to be trading below fair value
Going forward, investors can expect to receive ~14% MORE in earnings per share & ~22% MORE in FCF per share🧠***
Before we get into valuation, let’s take a look at why $ABNB is a quality business
BALANCE SHEET✅
•Cash & Equivalents: $11.36B
•Long-Term Debt: $0
$ABNB has an excellent balance sheet
RETURN ON CAPITAL❌➡️✅
•2020: (65.7%)
•2021: 7.5%
•2022: 24.0%
•2023: 14.5%
•2024: 23.8%
•LTM: 25.9%
RETURN ON EQUITY❌➡️✅
•2020: (172.2%)
•2021: (9.2%)
•2022: 36.6%
•2023: 69.8%
•2024: 31.9%
•LTM: 33.3%
$ABNB has improved its return metrics, highlighting the financial efficiency of the business
REVENUES✅
•2019: $4.81B
•2024: $11.10B
•CAGR: 18.20%
CASH FROM OPERATIONS✅
•2019: $0.22B
•2024: $4.52B
•CAGR: 81.47%
NORMALIZED EPS ESTIMATES✅
•2026: $4.78
•2028: $6.66
•CAGR: 18.03%
SHARE BUYBACKS❌
•2019 Shares Outstanding: 260.56M
•LTM Shares Outstanding: 634.00M
MARGINS✅
•LTM Gross Margins: 83.2%
•LTM Operating Margins: 22.5%
•LTM Gross Margins: 22.7%
***NOW TO VALUATION 🧠
As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~14% MORE in EPS & ~22% MORE FCF per share
Using Benjamin Graham’s 2G rule of thumb, $ABNB has to grow earnings at a 14.14% CAGR over the next several years to justify its valuation
Today, analysts anticipate 2026 - 2028 EPS growth over the next few years to be greater than the (14.14%) required growth rate:
2025E: $4.23 (3% YoY)
2026E: $4.78 (13% YoY)
2027E: $5.60 (17% YoY)
2028E: $6.66 (19% YoY) *FY Dec
$ABNB has a great track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, so let’s assume $ABNB ends 2028 with $6.66 in EPS & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples
32x P/E: $213.12💵 … ~18.0% CAGR
31x P/E: $206.46💵 … ~16.8% CAGR
30x P/E: $199.80💵 … ~15.6% CAGR
29x P/E: $193.14💵 … ~14.4% CAGR
28x P/E: $186.48💵 … ~13.2% CAGR
27x P/E: $179.82💵 … ~11.9% CAGR
As you can see, $ABNB appears to have attractive double digit CAGR potential at 27x
I believe $ABNB could reasonably demand a 28x - 30x multiple (given its growth rate, margins, & strong UI and brand)
Moreover, $ABNB still has a lot of potential to monetize its marketplace and activate new growth levers, further enhancing its future growth prospects
Today at $125💵 $ABNB appears to be trading at a decent value proposition & is a good consideration for investment
I consider $ABNB to have a large margin of safety closer to $105💵 where I can expect mid-teens CAGR potential assuming a 25x end multiple in 2028
#stocks #investing
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𝐃𝐈𝐒𝐂𝐋𝐎𝐒𝐔𝐑𝐄‼️: 𝐓𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐬 𝐍𝐎𝐓 𝐈𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐀𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞. 𝐁𝐚𝐛𝐲𝐥𝐨𝐧 𝐂𝐚𝐩𝐢𝐭𝐚𝐥® 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐢𝐭𝐬 𝐫𝐞𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐞𝐬 𝐦𝐚𝐲 𝐡𝐚𝐯𝐞 𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐞𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐞𝐬 𝐝𝐢𝐬𝐜𝐮𝐬𝐬𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭.
𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐚𝐥 𝐩𝐮𝐫𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐞𝐬 𝐨𝐧𝐥𝐲 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐬𝐡𝐨𝐮𝐥𝐝 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐛𝐞 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐮𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐚𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞 𝐭𝐨 𝐦𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐩𝐞𝐜𝐢𝐟𝐢𝐜 𝐧𝐞𝐞𝐝𝐬 𝐨𝐟 𝐚𝐧𝐲 𝐢𝐧𝐝𝐢𝐯𝐢𝐝𝐮𝐚𝐥 𝐨𝐫 𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐮𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧. 𝐏𝐚𝐬𝐭 𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐞 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞 𝐨𝐟 𝐟𝐮𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐮𝐥𝐭𝐬.
𝐈𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐡𝐚𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐞𝐧 𝐨𝐛𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐫𝐨𝐦 𝐬𝐨𝐮𝐫𝐜𝐞𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐝 𝐭𝐨 𝐛𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐚𝐛𝐥𝐞, 𝐛𝐮𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐭𝐨 𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐩𝐥𝐞𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐞𝐬𝐬 𝐨𝐫 𝐚𝐜𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐚𝐜𝐲.
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Yellowbrick Investing
Only got a 20% pump out of this one 😬
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Only got a 20% pump out of this one 😬
💊 Rate Cuts. Risk On. Biotech Reawakens. $SANA Looks Like the Next 100-Bagger Platform.
Biotech is back.
Rates are falling, inflation is cooling, and money is rotating from megacaps to growth again.
The XBI biotech index is 105 — halfway between its 2021 peak (167) and 2023 low (64).
When the cycle turns, leaders with real data explode first. $SANA is one of them.
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X (formerly Twitter)
Eric Jackson (@ericjackson) on X
💊 Rate Cuts. Risk On. Biotech Reawakens. $SANA Looks Like the Next 100-Bagger Platform.
Biotech is back.
Rates are falling, inflation is cooling, and money is rotating from megacaps to growth again.
The XBI biotech index is 105 — halfway between its 2021…
Biotech is back.
Rates are falling, inflation is cooling, and money is rotating from megacaps to growth again.
The XBI biotech index is 105 — halfway between its 2021…
Offshore
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Quiver Quantitative
Viasat stock has now risen 442% since we posted this report: https://t.co/HC5VyYLXZm
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Viasat stock has now risen 442% since we posted this report: https://t.co/HC5VyYLXZm
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Offshore
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App Economy Insights
📈 Big banks are back on offense:
• $JPM Trading Boom
• $BAC Dealmaking Breaks Out
• $WFC New Era of Growth
• $MS Equity Crown Tightens
• $GS Dealmaking Dominates
• $C Firing on All Cylinders
https://t.co/azbpU8Rcv7
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📈 Big banks are back on offense:
• $JPM Trading Boom
• $BAC Dealmaking Breaks Out
• $WFC New Era of Growth
• $MS Equity Crown Tightens
• $GS Dealmaking Dominates
• $C Firing on All Cylinders
https://t.co/azbpU8Rcv7
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Offshore
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Quiver Quantitative
$ICHR has now risen 53% since we posted this report.
Up another 10% today.
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$ICHR has now risen 53% since we posted this report.
Up another 10% today.
BREAKING: Representative Debbie Wasserman Schultz has bought stock in a company called Ichor, $ICHR.
Ichor designs components for semiconductor capital equipment.
This is the first time we have seen a politician buy the stock in over 8 years.
We'll be keeping an eye on $ICHR. https://t.co/Lxfp6hTA9W tweet