Offshore
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Umesh
Wonderful sref!
[PROMPT] --chaos 50 --sref 506925685 --profile 6xd26z9 --stylize 500 https://t.co/NFOMDfhJZG
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Wonderful sref!
[PROMPT] --chaos 50 --sref 506925685 --profile 6xd26z9 --stylize 500 https://t.co/NFOMDfhJZG
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Offshore
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Umesh
RT @LudovicCreator: @umesh_ai Great images and prompts Umesh
red moon --chaos 50 --sref 506925685 --profile 6xd26z9 --stylize 500 --v 7.0 https://t.co/EUUtn1y8VS
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RT @LudovicCreator: @umesh_ai Great images and prompts Umesh
red moon --chaos 50 --sref 506925685 --profile 6xd26z9 --stylize 500 --v 7.0 https://t.co/EUUtn1y8VS
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Offshore
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Umesh
RT @guicastellanos1: @umesh_ai Amazing sref! here an aztec temple! https://t.co/BpwJ1vJqg4
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RT @guicastellanos1: @umesh_ai Amazing sref! here an aztec temple! https://t.co/BpwJ1vJqg4
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Offshore
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Investing visuals
$ASML Q3 earnings 🚨
• Net bookings: €5.4B vs Est. €5.2B
• Rev: €7.5B vs Est. €7.65B
• Gross Margin: 51.6% vs Est. 51.3%
Q4 outlook
• Rev: €9.2-9.8B vs Est. €9.3B
• Gross Margin: 51-53% vs Est. 51% https://t.co/Mpu2Buck1k
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$ASML Q3 earnings 🚨
• Net bookings: €5.4B vs Est. €5.2B
• Rev: €7.5B vs Est. €7.65B
• Gross Margin: 51.6% vs Est. 51.3%
Q4 outlook
• Rev: €9.2-9.8B vs Est. €9.3B
• Gross Margin: 51-53% vs Est. 51% https://t.co/Mpu2Buck1k
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Offshore
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Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
ASML Holding $ASML Q3 2025 earnings 🗓️
🆗 REV: €7.52 vs €7.74B est
✅ EPS: €5.49 vs €5.36 est
Quarterly net bookings Q3 of €5.4B (€3.6B EUV)
Outlook Q4 2025
Revenue €9.2B - €9.8B vs €9.3B est https://t.co/y5miPvMZbJ
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ASML Holding $ASML Q3 2025 earnings 🗓️
🆗 REV: €7.52 vs €7.74B est
✅ EPS: €5.49 vs €5.36 est
Quarterly net bookings Q3 of €5.4B (€3.6B EUV)
Outlook Q4 2025
Revenue €9.2B - €9.8B vs €9.3B est https://t.co/y5miPvMZbJ
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Offshore
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Hidden Value Gems
Looks like Vltava fund and Vulcan purchased $FI in Q3. Here are their rationales... https://t.co/hIaWBRXaMI
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Looks like Vltava fund and Vulcan purchased $FI in Q3. Here are their rationales... https://t.co/hIaWBRXaMI
Anyone saw a good summary on Fiserv after the recent drop? I know more names will be on sale shortly, but thinking longer term - could be an interesting opportunity. Curious why the share price dropped so much recently, is it worth looking at them now? 🤔
$FI tweet
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Capital Employed
RT @capitalemployed: 43 Excellent stock pitches to get stuck into, from both fund managers and some very smart private investors --->
https://t.co/GWDhHEhLim https://t.co/fw4YBkbJQr
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RT @capitalemployed: 43 Excellent stock pitches to get stuck into, from both fund managers and some very smart private investors --->
https://t.co/GWDhHEhLim https://t.co/fw4YBkbJQr
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Yellowbrick Investing
$CMG.TO
2/ 🚨Behind The Buy 🚨
Here's why I’m buying Computer Modelling Group: $CMG.TO $CMG
Computer Modelling Group (CMG) is a mission-critical, sticky software provider serving the upstream oil and gas industry. Historically, it generated 40%+ profit margins and paid out nearly all of it in the form of dividends. With little attention paid to reinvesting its cash at attractive rates of return, the stock has languished over the past decade. Since 2022, however, CMG has undergone a dramatic change: new management, a board infused with Constellation Software (CSI) DNA, and a more disciplined approach to capital allocation. Despite short-term setbacks in organic growth, I believe the company is significantly undervalued and poised for meaningful share price appreciation over the next decade.
What does Computer Modelling Group do?
In its simplest form, CMG provides software that enables upstream oil and gas companies to simulate and predict how their reservoirs will behave over time. This is a critical task for operators, as reservoirs are expensive, unique, and poorly understood physical systems. CMG is globally diversified and employs ~300 people.
Introduction
CMG is a turnaround play, and my objective with this post is to share with you why I believe management can turn the ship around. Before getting into the challenges they are facing, I will talk about the pros and why I believe this is a high-quality company worth owning.
Strong Market Presence
CMG commands roughly 35% market share in the reservoir simulation software space, second only to Schlumberger at 55%. Nearly all major operators use more than one simulator: Schlumberger’s Eclipse/INTERSECT leads for more conventional scenarios, and CMG stars in advanced, unconventional processes.
The depth of CMG’s customer base is striking. Every one of the world’s super-majors is a client. Ninety percent of the top-10 national oil companies and 75% of the top-25 largest oil companies use CMG. These are not fleeting relationships — ONGC in India, for example, has used CMG’s software since 1992. Even firms with proprietary in-house simulators (Shell, Exxon, ConocoPhillips) still license CMG products, because CMG’s expertise in niche areas is unmatched.
One of its crown jewels is STARS, the industry benchmark for modeling steam injection, in-situ combustion, and other complex techniques (important for heavy oil simulation). In the Canadian heavy oil market, CMG has what amounts to a monopoly: all 20 of Canada’s largest heavy oil operators use STARS. Customers love the product — evidenced by its industry-leading Net Promoter Score of 68 — and tend to stick with it.
Switching Costs
The barriers to switching away from CMG are high. Reservoirs don’t change whesingle-seatn software does, which means a customer would need to painstakingly replicate years of calibration in a new system — a risky and expensive proposition. CMG’s products embody more than four decades of R&D, and the industry prefers proven tools because reservoir simulation is enormously complex. Drilling a single well can cost $2–20 million, whereas a single seat reservoir simulation license might cost on the order of $40–100k per year.
Even if a competitor offers a superior price, customers incur months of parallel operation, staff retraining, and lost productivity during transition. CMG has also followed the Adobe and Autodesk playbook, partnering with more than 200 universities to embed its tools into training programs. This ensures that young professionals arrive at their jobs already familiar with CMG’s software.
CMG’s CEO noted that when competitors have tried to dislodge CMG in markets where it’s dominant, they resorted to discounting their product by “as much as 90%” — yet still struggled to get customers to switch. CMG historically has achieved renewal rates well above 95% for its software licenses, though that number is not immune to the cyclicality of the industry (more on this lat[...]
$CMG.TO
2/ 🚨Behind The Buy 🚨
Here's why I’m buying Computer Modelling Group: $CMG.TO $CMG
Computer Modelling Group (CMG) is a mission-critical, sticky software provider serving the upstream oil and gas industry. Historically, it generated 40%+ profit margins and paid out nearly all of it in the form of dividends. With little attention paid to reinvesting its cash at attractive rates of return, the stock has languished over the past decade. Since 2022, however, CMG has undergone a dramatic change: new management, a board infused with Constellation Software (CSI) DNA, and a more disciplined approach to capital allocation. Despite short-term setbacks in organic growth, I believe the company is significantly undervalued and poised for meaningful share price appreciation over the next decade.
What does Computer Modelling Group do?
In its simplest form, CMG provides software that enables upstream oil and gas companies to simulate and predict how their reservoirs will behave over time. This is a critical task for operators, as reservoirs are expensive, unique, and poorly understood physical systems. CMG is globally diversified and employs ~300 people.
Introduction
CMG is a turnaround play, and my objective with this post is to share with you why I believe management can turn the ship around. Before getting into the challenges they are facing, I will talk about the pros and why I believe this is a high-quality company worth owning.
Strong Market Presence
CMG commands roughly 35% market share in the reservoir simulation software space, second only to Schlumberger at 55%. Nearly all major operators use more than one simulator: Schlumberger’s Eclipse/INTERSECT leads for more conventional scenarios, and CMG stars in advanced, unconventional processes.
The depth of CMG’s customer base is striking. Every one of the world’s super-majors is a client. Ninety percent of the top-10 national oil companies and 75% of the top-25 largest oil companies use CMG. These are not fleeting relationships — ONGC in India, for example, has used CMG’s software since 1992. Even firms with proprietary in-house simulators (Shell, Exxon, ConocoPhillips) still license CMG products, because CMG’s expertise in niche areas is unmatched.
One of its crown jewels is STARS, the industry benchmark for modeling steam injection, in-situ combustion, and other complex techniques (important for heavy oil simulation). In the Canadian heavy oil market, CMG has what amounts to a monopoly: all 20 of Canada’s largest heavy oil operators use STARS. Customers love the product — evidenced by its industry-leading Net Promoter Score of 68 — and tend to stick with it.
Switching Costs
The barriers to switching away from CMG are high. Reservoirs don’t change whesingle-seatn software does, which means a customer would need to painstakingly replicate years of calibration in a new system — a risky and expensive proposition. CMG’s products embody more than four decades of R&D, and the industry prefers proven tools because reservoir simulation is enormously complex. Drilling a single well can cost $2–20 million, whereas a single seat reservoir simulation license might cost on the order of $40–100k per year.
Even if a competitor offers a superior price, customers incur months of parallel operation, staff retraining, and lost productivity during transition. CMG has also followed the Adobe and Autodesk playbook, partnering with more than 200 universities to embed its tools into training programs. This ensures that young professionals arrive at their jobs already familiar with CMG’s software.
CMG’s CEO noted that when competitors have tried to dislodge CMG in markets where it’s dominant, they resorted to discounting their product by “as much as 90%” — yet still struggled to get customers to switch. CMG historically has achieved renewal rates well above 95% for its software licenses, though that number is not immune to the cyclicality of the industry (more on this lat[...]
Offshore
Yellowbrick Investing $CMG.TO 2/ 🚨Behind The Buy 🚨 Here's why I’m buying Computer Modelling Group: $CMG.TO $CMG Computer Modelling Group (CMG) is a mission-critical, sticky software provider serving the upstream oil and gas industry. Historically, it generated…
er).
In 2022, everything changed...
Between 2013 and 2022, CMG was stagnant. Annual revenues oscillated between $66M and $85M for a decade. Margins were high, customers were loyal, but management simply distributed cash through dividends.
In 2022, however, the company began to change. Recognizing that they owned a mission-critical, high-margin business with significant potential, CMG’s largest shareholder, EdgePoint Capital — run by Andrew Pastor — began to reshape the team.
Enter Constellation Software Exposure
Andrew Pastor is one of Constellation Software’s board members and has been a partner at EdgePoint since 2013. EdgePoint first invested in CMG in 2017 and has since increased its position nearly tenfold, becoming the company’s largest shareholder with a 28% stake. Given his board seat at Constellation Software (as of 9/4/2025, he has become the chair), he understood a simple formula: profitable mission-critical software + high ROIC + high reinvestment rate = outsized returns. His goal was to deploy this formula at CMG.
In 2019, Mark Miller joined the board and in 2024, moved into a Chairman role. Mark Miller was instrumental in building Volaris Group into the VMS behemoth it is today (Mark Miller recently left his role on the board in September 2025, but was key in shaping the culture and decision-making within the current leadership team). In 2024, Birgit Troy also joined the board; she was the CFO at Lumine Group (another one of Constellation Software’s seven operating groups) from 2016–2021. John Billowits, ex-VELA Group CEO, also served on the CMG board from 2021–2024. Additionally, their current head of corporate development, Mohammad Khalaf, worked as a VP of M&A for Harris Computer Group for about seven years. In July 2025, the CFO of CSI's Perseus operating group, Vipin Khullar, departed from his role and joined CMG as their new CFO.
In 2022, the CMG board announced a new CEO — enter Pramod Jain.
Pramod Jain came in as CEO in May 2022 with little experience in oil and gas but a strong background in engineering and previous leadership roles in software companies. Since joining, the stock is up ~45%, revenues are up ~95%, and EBIT is up 42%. One of his first priorities was to halt executive RSU grants and implement an after-tax bonus share purchase program (similar to CSI) to reduce dilution and make the business more shareholder-friendly.
Pramod also restructured leadership bonuses to include ROIC as a KPI, and wrote clear, candid shareholder letters reminiscent of Buffett and Mark Leonard. Two qualities stand out in his communication: accountability and a growing appreciation for compounding — no doubt influenced by his interactions with his CSI mentors.
Acquisition History
CMG has made it clear that redeploying excess free cash flow into acquisitions at attractive rates of return is one of its core pillars for growth.
CMG made its first material acquisition in Q3 2023 of a business called Bluware for $22M upfront plus $8M earnout (earnout paid 18 months after closing). At the time, Bluware had total revenues of $23.5M (US$17.7M from services and US$5.8M from software) with an adjusted EBITDA margin of 5%. Since then, CMG claims that financials are on target, with annualized software revenue up 50% from pre-acquisition levels (~$9M in ARR) and adjusted EBITDA margin expanding from roughly 5% to 15%. We should learn whether their earn-out is paid in full next quarter, which will help assess if it’s meeting expectations.
In November 2024, they made their second material acquisition of Sharp Reflections for ~€25M. Sharp had revenues of €10M, with 70% recurring software revenue and 30% services revenue, and low double-digit EBITDA margins.
In Bluware’s case, they paid ~5× ARR (inclusive of earn-out), and in Sharp’s case, ~3.5× ARR. While these seem expensive on the surface, both businesses are growing much faster than CMG’s core business (Bluware ARR grew 50% over 18 months). Their returns hinge on sustaining revenue growt[...]
In 2022, everything changed...
Between 2013 and 2022, CMG was stagnant. Annual revenues oscillated between $66M and $85M for a decade. Margins were high, customers were loyal, but management simply distributed cash through dividends.
In 2022, however, the company began to change. Recognizing that they owned a mission-critical, high-margin business with significant potential, CMG’s largest shareholder, EdgePoint Capital — run by Andrew Pastor — began to reshape the team.
Enter Constellation Software Exposure
Andrew Pastor is one of Constellation Software’s board members and has been a partner at EdgePoint since 2013. EdgePoint first invested in CMG in 2017 and has since increased its position nearly tenfold, becoming the company’s largest shareholder with a 28% stake. Given his board seat at Constellation Software (as of 9/4/2025, he has become the chair), he understood a simple formula: profitable mission-critical software + high ROIC + high reinvestment rate = outsized returns. His goal was to deploy this formula at CMG.
In 2019, Mark Miller joined the board and in 2024, moved into a Chairman role. Mark Miller was instrumental in building Volaris Group into the VMS behemoth it is today (Mark Miller recently left his role on the board in September 2025, but was key in shaping the culture and decision-making within the current leadership team). In 2024, Birgit Troy also joined the board; she was the CFO at Lumine Group (another one of Constellation Software’s seven operating groups) from 2016–2021. John Billowits, ex-VELA Group CEO, also served on the CMG board from 2021–2024. Additionally, their current head of corporate development, Mohammad Khalaf, worked as a VP of M&A for Harris Computer Group for about seven years. In July 2025, the CFO of CSI's Perseus operating group, Vipin Khullar, departed from his role and joined CMG as their new CFO.
In 2022, the CMG board announced a new CEO — enter Pramod Jain.
Pramod Jain came in as CEO in May 2022 with little experience in oil and gas but a strong background in engineering and previous leadership roles in software companies. Since joining, the stock is up ~45%, revenues are up ~95%, and EBIT is up 42%. One of his first priorities was to halt executive RSU grants and implement an after-tax bonus share purchase program (similar to CSI) to reduce dilution and make the business more shareholder-friendly.
Pramod also restructured leadership bonuses to include ROIC as a KPI, and wrote clear, candid shareholder letters reminiscent of Buffett and Mark Leonard. Two qualities stand out in his communication: accountability and a growing appreciation for compounding — no doubt influenced by his interactions with his CSI mentors.
Acquisition History
CMG has made it clear that redeploying excess free cash flow into acquisitions at attractive rates of return is one of its core pillars for growth.
CMG made its first material acquisition in Q3 2023 of a business called Bluware for $22M upfront plus $8M earnout (earnout paid 18 months after closing). At the time, Bluware had total revenues of $23.5M (US$17.7M from services and US$5.8M from software) with an adjusted EBITDA margin of 5%. Since then, CMG claims that financials are on target, with annualized software revenue up 50% from pre-acquisition levels (~$9M in ARR) and adjusted EBITDA margin expanding from roughly 5% to 15%. We should learn whether their earn-out is paid in full next quarter, which will help assess if it’s meeting expectations.
In November 2024, they made their second material acquisition of Sharp Reflections for ~€25M. Sharp had revenues of €10M, with 70% recurring software revenue and 30% services revenue, and low double-digit EBITDA margins.
In Bluware’s case, they paid ~5× ARR (inclusive of earn-out), and in Sharp’s case, ~3.5× ARR. While these seem expensive on the surface, both businesses are growing much faster than CMG’s core business (Bluware ARR grew 50% over 18 months). Their returns hinge on sustaining revenue growt[...]