ToffCap
RT @LuxOpesResearch: New one out, discussing 👇👇

🇩🇪 thyssenkrupp $TKA
🇬🇧 Shell Plc $SHEL
🇫🇷 Kaufman & Broad $KOF
🇩🇪 BASF $BAS
🇨🇭 Rieter Holding $RIEN
🇬🇧 Unilever PLC $ULVR
🇪🇸 Acciona $ANA
🇫🇷 LDC $LOUP
🇬🇧Diageo $DGE
🇫🇷 Pernod Ricard $RI
🇫🇷 Remy Cointreau $RCO
🇫🇷 Valneva $VLA
🇩🇪 Redcare Pharmacy $RDC
🇦🇹 OMV $OMV

As much requested, we've added a table with financial KPIs to the publication.
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Emily
Google Gemini 2.5 Nano banana
{
"style": "High-key studio portrait, direct flash aesthetic, East Asian social media style (e.g., Ulzzang, Douyin), stylized beauty retouching.",
"output": {
"color_profile": "sRGB",
"render_intent": "photo"
},
"subject": {
"category": "human",
"gender_presentation": "female",
"ethnicity": "East Asian (e.g., Korean, Chinese)",
"age_bracket": "young_adult",
"body": {
"build": "slim",
"proportions": "natural human anatomy",
"posture": "relaxed on sofa, seated casually",
"pose": "seated, legs crossed and tucked close to body",
"gesture": "Right hand raised, fingers loosely curled, back of fingers/knuckles gently supporting the chin and lower cheek.",
"head_tilt_deg": 5
},
"face": {
"expression": "Playful, alluring",
"gaze": "right eye direct to camera",
"eye_action": "winking with the left eye",
"skin_tone": "Very pale porcelain (lightened aesthetic)",
"makeup": "Stylized K-Beauty/Douyin look: flawless matte base, strong pink blush high on cheeks, pink gradient lips, defined brows, light eyeliner, emphasized Aegyo-sal",
"features": "small beauty mark/mole under the left eye"
},
"hair": {
"length": "long",
"style": "messy high updo/bun with loose strands and curtain bangs",
"color": "dark brown"
},
"wardrobe": {
"top": "white fitted cropped camisole",
"outerwear": "light gray zip hoodie, worn open and slightly slipping off both shoulders",
"bottom": "white lounge shorts with drawstring",
"footwear": "barefoot"
}
},
"environment": {
"location": "studio or minimalist interior",
"set": "black leather sofa against a plain white or light gray wall",
"props": "Silver laptop (Apple MacBook, logo visible) placed on the cushion to the subject's right (camera left)"
},
"lighting": {
"key": {
"source": "strobe/flash",
"modifier": "Bare reflector or direct flash (hard source)",
"position": "Near camera axis, slightly camera-right and above eye line",
"effect": "Crisp, dark, well-defined cast shadows on the wall directly behind subject; strong specular highlights on skin and sofa leather."
},
"fill": {
"type": "minimal/none"
},
"ambient": "suppressed",
"white_balance_K": 5800
},
"camera": {
"system": "Digital Camera",
"sensor": "full-frame equivalent",
"lens": {
"type": "prime",
"focal_length_mm": 50
},
"exposure": {
"iso": 100,
"aperture_f": 4.0,
"metering": "Bright exposure, high-key aesthetic"
},
"focus": {
"target": "near eye (right eye)",
"depth_of_field": "moderate"
},
"framing": {
"orientation": "vertical",
"crop": "mid-thigh to head with room above hair",
"angle": "eye-level",
"composition": "subject centrally framed"
}
},
"color_grade": {
"look": "Bright, clean, slightly cool tone",
"contrast": "High contrast",
"saturation": "moderate, emphasized pinks"
},
"postprocess": {
"noise_reduction": "high",
"texture": "Highly smoothed skin, poreless appearance ('porcelain doll' or 'beauty filter' effect)",
"sharpen": "selective on eyes/lashes",
"blemish_control": "Complete removal of all blemishes and texture."
},
"quality_targets": [
"accurate limb lengths and joint angles",
"correct finger count and articulation",
"realistic fabric tension and folds",
"accurate winking expression"
],
"negative_prompt": [
"no altered or exaggerated body proportions",
"no extra or fused fingers",
"no realistic skin texture, pores, or blemishes",
"no text or watermarks (excluding specified logos)",
"no extreme wide-angle distortion",
"no NSFW content",
"no dark/moody lighting",
"no warm tones"
]
} tweet

Yellowbrick Investing
$APP is going to fill the gap by lunch lol. Market doesn’t give a darn about bad news
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Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
A quality valuation analysis on $GOOG 🧘🏽‍♂️

•NTM P/E Ratio: 25.21x
•10-Year Mean: 23.36x

•NTM FCF Yield: 2.47%
•10-Year Mean: 4.19%

As you can see, $GOOG appears to be trading slightly below fair value on an earnings basis (FCF Yield not best metric due to ongoing heavy CapEx)

Going forward, investors can receive ~7% LESS in earnings per share & ~41% LESS in FCF per share 🧠***

Before we get into valuation, let’s take a look at why $GOOG is a great business

BALANCE SHEET✅
•Cash & Short-Term Inv: $95.15B
•Long-Term Debt: $23.61B

$GOOG has a strong balance sheet, an AA+ S&P Credit Rating & 332x FFO Interest Coverage

RETURN ON CAPITAL✅
•2020: 16.2%
•2021: 27.6%
•2022: 26.1%
•2023: 26.9%
•2024: 32.3%
•LTM: 30.4%

RETURN ON EQUITY✅
•2020: 19.0%
•2021: 32.1%
•2022: 23.6%
•2023: 27.4%
•2024: 32.9%
•LTM: 34.8%

$GOOG has strong return metrics, highlighting the financial efficiency of the business

REVENUES✅
•2015: $74.99B
•2025E: $394.24B
•CAGR: 18.16%

FREE CASH FLOW✅
•2015: $16.62B
•2025E: $67.08B
•CAGR: 14.97%

NORMALIZED EPS✅
•2015: $1.16
•2025E: $9.94
•CAGR: 23.96%

SHARE BUYBACKS✅
•2018 Shares Outstanding: 14.07B
•LTM Shares Outstanding: 12.31B

By reducing its shares outstanding ~12.5%, $GOOG increased its EPS by ~14.3% (assuming 0 growth)

MARGINS✅
•LTM Gross Margins: 58.9%
•LTM Operating Margins: 33.2%
•LTM Net Income Margins: 31.1%

***NOW TO VALUATION 🧠

As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~7% LESS in EPS & ~41% LESS in FCF per share

Using Benjamin Graham’s 2G rule of thumb, $GOOG has to grow earnings at a 12.61% CAGR over the next several years to justify its valuation

Today, analysts anticipate 2025 - 2028 EPS growth over the next few years to be slightly more than the (12.61%) required growth rate:

2025E: $9.94 (23% YoY) *FY Dec

2026E: $10.67 (7% YoY)
2027E: $12.10 (14% YoY)
2028E: $14.24 (17% YoY)

$GOOG has an excellent track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, buy let’s assume $GOOG ends 2028 with $14.24 in EPS & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples

26x P/E: $370.24💵 … ~13.3% CAGR

25x P/E: $356.00💵 … ~11.9% CAGR

24x P/E: $341.76💵 … ~10.5% CAGR

23x P/E: $327.52💵 … ~9.1% CAGR

22x P/E: $313.28💵 … ~7.6% CAGR

As you can see, $GOOG appears to have attractive return potential IF we assume >25x earnings (a multiple above its 5-year & 10-year mean, though a multiple justified by its growth rate & moat)

While it’s certainly fair for $GOOG to trade at a higher multiple (26x - 28x), I wouldn’t want to rely on multiple expansion for added return potential

Today at $249💵 $GOOG appears to be a fair consideration for investment, without much margin of safety

I consider $GOOG a strong consideration closer to $210, or ~21x NTM where I could reasonably expect 13% CAGR assuming 22x

Between cloud ☁️ , AI 🤖 , quantum computing ⚛️, $GOOG has a strong growth runway ahead, with the potential for continued margin expansion serving as an additional tailwind

$GOOGL
___

DISCLOSURE‼️: This is NOT Investment Advice. Babylon Capital® and its representatives may have positions in the securities discussed in this post.

The information contained in this post is intended for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice to meet the specific needs of any individual or situation. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

Information contained in this post has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to completeness or accuracy.
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Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
RT @shayne_coplan: Markets on everything.

We’re proud to announce that $ICE, the owner of @NYSE and the largest exchange company in the world, is making a strategic investment of $2 billion into Polymarket, valuing us at $9 billion post-money.

Our partnership with ICE marks a major step in bringing prediction markets into the financial mainstream. But in addition to that, it’s a monumental step forward for DeFi. ICE is the one remaining founder-led exchange company, and Jeff is all-in on utilizing his assets, including NYSE, to usher in a new financial era of tokenization. We’re humbled to be working together on this endeavor. ICE will also begin distributing Polymarket data to thousands of financial institutions around the world. There is so much to build when you combine the force of ICE’s institutional scale and credibility with Polymarket’s consumer + cultural savvy and distribution.

The past two years have been surreal. Going from a write off to creating a category, watching our vision become a reality. The Polymarket origin story is funny because it's a rare case of the dream being identical to how things played out. If I learned one thing, it’s that bold ideas are everywhere, hidden in plain sight. It just takes someone crazy enough to spend their life willing it into existence. That’s entrepreneurship: willing things into existence.

I remember reading Robin Hanson’s literature on prediction markets and thinking - man, this is too good of an idea to just exist in whitepapers. There were a million reasons why it shouldn’t work, countless arguments of why not to do it, and the odds were against us, but we had to try.

At the onset of the pandemic, I quite literally had nothing to lose: 21, running out of money, 2.5 years since I dropped out and nothing to show for it. But I knew we were entering an era where ways to find truth would matter more than ever, and Polymarket could play a critical role in that. After all, nothing is more valuable than the truth. It’s still a work in progress, but we’re honored to have made the impact we have thus far.

I’d also like to give a special thank you to all of our users, builders, and community members who have been with us since 2020. Your support will not be forgotten 🔮

Last but not least, I am deeply grateful for all of the support and hard work of my brilliant team. I’m getting to live my wildest dreams, seemingly against all odds, and I don’t take it for granted.

The best is yet to come… 🇺🇸

Que Sera Sera
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Umesh
RT @awesome_visuals: https://t.co/F3nwBTqIuI
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App Economy Insights
⚡️ OpenAI hit a $500B valuation.

• ChatGPT aims to be the next superapp.
• $NVDA is funding a $100B AI power grid.
• And the new $AMD deal is a critical twist.

Let's put it all in context. 👇
https://t.co/Vb5PNTKS3z
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