AkhenOsiris
$FLUT $DKNG $GENI $SRAD
Regulus:
“While comparable matched trading volumes remain relatively small compared to bookmaker handle, we believe the stock market is right to be cautious.”
“We do not believe that prediction market exchanges + market makers will ever be liquid enough and/or have access to sufficiently competitive insurance products to enable them to compete in SGPs that have four legs or more, or payout more than c. 5x the stake… However, this competitive advantage for sportsbooks protects maybe half the current parlay market, or c. 30% of current revenue… The problem is that prediction markets can reasonably go for the other 60% of US sports betting revenue highly effectively: singles bets on big events and SGPs with 3 legs or fewer, especially since they tend to appeal to sharper customers.”
https://t.co/C5WPZAip25
tweet
$FLUT $DKNG $GENI $SRAD
Regulus:
“While comparable matched trading volumes remain relatively small compared to bookmaker handle, we believe the stock market is right to be cautious.”
“We do not believe that prediction market exchanges + market makers will ever be liquid enough and/or have access to sufficiently competitive insurance products to enable them to compete in SGPs that have four legs or more, or payout more than c. 5x the stake… However, this competitive advantage for sportsbooks protects maybe half the current parlay market, or c. 30% of current revenue… The problem is that prediction markets can reasonably go for the other 60% of US sports betting revenue highly effectively: singles bets on big events and SGPs with 3 legs or fewer, especially since they tend to appeal to sharper customers.”
https://t.co/C5WPZAip25
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Offshore
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Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
RT @DimitryNakhla: A quality valuation analysis on $FICO 🧘🏽♂️
•NTM P/E Ratio: 42.78x
•5-Year Mean: 43.00x
•NTM FCF Yield: 2.45%
•5-Year Mean: 2.41%
As you can see, $FICO appears to be trading near fair value
Going forward, investors can receive about the same in earnings per share & FCF per share 🧠***
Before we get into valuation, let’s take a look at why $FICO is a great business
BALANCE SHEET🆗
•Cash & Short-Term Inv: $189.05M
•Long-Term Debt: $2.38B
$FICO has a strategically managed balance sheet, a BB+ S&P Credit Rating, & 6x FFO Interest Coverage
RETURN ON CAPITAL✅
•2020: 26.9%
•2021: 33.8%
•2022: 48.9%
•2023: 52.8%
•2024: 56.9%
•LTM: 63.1%
$FICO has strong returns on capital, highlighting the financial efficiency of the business
REVENUES✅
•2019: $1.16B
•2024: $1.72B
•CAGR: 8.19%
FREE CASH FLOW✅
•2019: $236.37M
•2024: $624.08M
•CAGR: 21.43%
NORMALIZED EPS✅
•2019: $7.51
•2024: $23.74
•CAGR: 25.88%
SHARE BUYBACKS✅
•2019 Shares Outstanding: 30.29M
•LTM Shares Outstanding: 24.75M
By reducing its shares outstanding by 18.3%, $FICO increased its EPS by 22.4% (assuming 0 growth)
MARGINS✅
•LTM Gross Margins: 81.7%
•LTM Operating Margins: 45.9%
•LTM Net Income Margins: 32.8%
***NOW TO VALUATION 🧠
As stated above, investors can expect to receive about the same in EPS & FCF per share
Using Benjamin Graham’s 2G rule of thumb, $FICO has to grow earnings at a 21.39% CAGR over the next several years to justify its valuation
Today, analysts anticipate 2025 - 2028 EPS growth over the next few years to be just greater than the (21.39%) required growth rate:
2025E: $29.44 (24% YoY) *FY Sep
2026E: $35.86 (22% YoY)
2027E: $44.45 (24% YoY)
2028E: $54.83 (23% YoY)
$FICO has a good track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, but let’s assume $FICO ends 2028 with $54.83 in EPS & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples
42x P/E: $2302💵 … ~17.6% CAGR
40x P/E: $2193💵 … ~15.8% CAGR
38x P/E: 2083💵 … ~13.9% CAGR
36x P/E: $1974💵 … ~12.1% CAGR
34x P/E: $1864💵 … ~10.0% CAGR
As you can see, $FICO appears to have attractive return potential if we assume >36x earnings multiple (allowing for ~15% multiple compression)
$FICO is a high-quality business & a good consideration for investment today at $1378💵
$FICO becomes extremely attractive close to $1150💵 (20% lower from today’s price) where you can reasonably assume mid teens CAGR (13% - 16%) given a 31x - 34x multiple
Given perceived headwinds & regulatory risks, $FICO stock price may be very volatile over the next few months so it would be wise to patiently piece into the position, allowing a win-win scenario whether shares fall or rise shortly after initial purchase
___
𝐃𝐈𝐒𝐂𝐋𝐎𝐒𝐔𝐑𝐄‼️: 𝐓𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐬 𝐍𝐎𝐓 𝐈𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐀𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞. 𝐁𝐚𝐛𝐲𝐥𝐨𝐧 𝐂𝐚𝐩𝐢𝐭𝐚𝐥® 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐢𝐭𝐬 𝐫𝐞𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐞𝐬 𝐦𝐚𝐲 𝐡𝐚𝐯𝐞 𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐞𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐞𝐬 𝐝𝐢𝐬𝐜𝐮𝐬𝐬𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭.
𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐚𝐥 𝐩𝐮𝐫𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐞𝐬 𝐨𝐧𝐥𝐲 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐬𝐡𝐨𝐮𝐥𝐝 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐛𝐞 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐮𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐚𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞 𝐭𝐨 𝐦𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐩𝐞𝐜𝐢𝐟𝐢𝐜 𝐧𝐞𝐞𝐝𝐬 𝐨𝐟 𝐚𝐧𝐲 𝐢𝐧𝐝𝐢𝐯𝐢𝐝𝐮𝐚𝐥 𝐨𝐫 𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐮𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧. 𝐏𝐚𝐬𝐭 𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐞 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞 𝐨𝐟 𝐟𝐮𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐮𝐥𝐭𝐬.
𝐈𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐡𝐚𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐞𝐧 𝐨𝐛𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐫𝐨𝐦 𝐬𝐨𝐮𝐫𝐜𝐞𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐝 𝐭𝐨 𝐛𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐚𝐛𝐥𝐞, 𝐛𝐮𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐭𝐨 𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐩𝐥𝐞𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐞𝐬𝐬 𝐨𝐫 𝐚𝐜𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐚𝐜𝐲.
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RT @DimitryNakhla: A quality valuation analysis on $FICO 🧘🏽♂️
•NTM P/E Ratio: 42.78x
•5-Year Mean: 43.00x
•NTM FCF Yield: 2.45%
•5-Year Mean: 2.41%
As you can see, $FICO appears to be trading near fair value
Going forward, investors can receive about the same in earnings per share & FCF per share 🧠***
Before we get into valuation, let’s take a look at why $FICO is a great business
BALANCE SHEET🆗
•Cash & Short-Term Inv: $189.05M
•Long-Term Debt: $2.38B
$FICO has a strategically managed balance sheet, a BB+ S&P Credit Rating, & 6x FFO Interest Coverage
RETURN ON CAPITAL✅
•2020: 26.9%
•2021: 33.8%
•2022: 48.9%
•2023: 52.8%
•2024: 56.9%
•LTM: 63.1%
$FICO has strong returns on capital, highlighting the financial efficiency of the business
REVENUES✅
•2019: $1.16B
•2024: $1.72B
•CAGR: 8.19%
FREE CASH FLOW✅
•2019: $236.37M
•2024: $624.08M
•CAGR: 21.43%
NORMALIZED EPS✅
•2019: $7.51
•2024: $23.74
•CAGR: 25.88%
SHARE BUYBACKS✅
•2019 Shares Outstanding: 30.29M
•LTM Shares Outstanding: 24.75M
By reducing its shares outstanding by 18.3%, $FICO increased its EPS by 22.4% (assuming 0 growth)
MARGINS✅
•LTM Gross Margins: 81.7%
•LTM Operating Margins: 45.9%
•LTM Net Income Margins: 32.8%
***NOW TO VALUATION 🧠
As stated above, investors can expect to receive about the same in EPS & FCF per share
Using Benjamin Graham’s 2G rule of thumb, $FICO has to grow earnings at a 21.39% CAGR over the next several years to justify its valuation
Today, analysts anticipate 2025 - 2028 EPS growth over the next few years to be just greater than the (21.39%) required growth rate:
2025E: $29.44 (24% YoY) *FY Sep
2026E: $35.86 (22% YoY)
2027E: $44.45 (24% YoY)
2028E: $54.83 (23% YoY)
$FICO has a good track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, but let’s assume $FICO ends 2028 with $54.83 in EPS & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples
42x P/E: $2302💵 … ~17.6% CAGR
40x P/E: $2193💵 … ~15.8% CAGR
38x P/E: 2083💵 … ~13.9% CAGR
36x P/E: $1974💵 … ~12.1% CAGR
34x P/E: $1864💵 … ~10.0% CAGR
As you can see, $FICO appears to have attractive return potential if we assume >36x earnings multiple (allowing for ~15% multiple compression)
$FICO is a high-quality business & a good consideration for investment today at $1378💵
$FICO becomes extremely attractive close to $1150💵 (20% lower from today’s price) where you can reasonably assume mid teens CAGR (13% - 16%) given a 31x - 34x multiple
Given perceived headwinds & regulatory risks, $FICO stock price may be very volatile over the next few months so it would be wise to patiently piece into the position, allowing a win-win scenario whether shares fall or rise shortly after initial purchase
___
𝐃𝐈𝐒𝐂𝐋𝐎𝐒𝐔𝐑𝐄‼️: 𝐓𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐬 𝐍𝐎𝐓 𝐈𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐀𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞. 𝐁𝐚𝐛𝐲𝐥𝐨𝐧 𝐂𝐚𝐩𝐢𝐭𝐚𝐥® 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐢𝐭𝐬 𝐫𝐞𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐞𝐬 𝐦𝐚𝐲 𝐡𝐚𝐯𝐞 𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐞𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐞𝐬 𝐝𝐢𝐬𝐜𝐮𝐬𝐬𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭.
𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐚𝐥 𝐩𝐮𝐫𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐞𝐬 𝐨𝐧𝐥𝐲 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐬𝐡𝐨𝐮𝐥𝐝 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐛𝐞 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐮𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐚𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞 𝐭𝐨 𝐦𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐩𝐞𝐜𝐢𝐟𝐢𝐜 𝐧𝐞𝐞𝐝𝐬 𝐨𝐟 𝐚𝐧𝐲 𝐢𝐧𝐝𝐢𝐯𝐢𝐝𝐮𝐚𝐥 𝐨𝐫 𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐮𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧. 𝐏𝐚𝐬𝐭 𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐞 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞 𝐨𝐟 𝐟𝐮𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐮𝐥𝐭𝐬.
𝐈𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐡𝐚𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐞𝐧 𝐨𝐛𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐫𝐨𝐦 𝐬𝐨𝐮𝐫𝐜𝐞𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐝 𝐭𝐨 𝐛𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐚𝐛𝐥𝐞, 𝐛𝐮𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐭𝐨 𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐩𝐥𝐞𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐞𝐬𝐬 𝐨𝐫 𝐚𝐜𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐚𝐜𝐲.
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Offshore
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Investing visuals
The market suddenly woke up on $ASML, which is now up +45% in one month.
Fundamentals always win 🤝 https://t.co/FoYwZIQ6WN
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The market suddenly woke up on $ASML, which is now up +45% in one month.
Fundamentals always win 🤝 https://t.co/FoYwZIQ6WN
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Yellowbrick Investing
$BAHN-B.ST
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$BAHN-B.ST
Bahnhof $BAHN.B is a profitable Swedish access-and-infrastructure hybrid - consumer and SME broadband plus colocation/cloud - that’s been compounding mid-teens EBITDA margins for years while keeping a remarkably clean balance sheet.
🧵 tweet
X (formerly Twitter)
cuisineålille (@LaTranquillum) on X
Bahnhof $BAHN.B is a profitable Swedish access-and-infrastructure hybrid - consumer and SME broadband plus colocation/cloud - that’s been compounding mid-teens EBITDA margins for years while keeping a remarkably clean balance sheet.
🧵
🧵
Offshore
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Umesh
If you are into art, it is a good idea to try Midjourney.
Prompt: colorful paint thick wet paint forming minimalist [VISUAL_DESCRIPTION] , aesthetically pleasing, vivid and vibrant colors, clean, pristine, liquid paint, white background --chaos 40 --quality 2 --profile 41zs3yb --stylize 900 --v 6.1
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If you are into art, it is a good idea to try Midjourney.
Prompt: colorful paint thick wet paint forming minimalist [VISUAL_DESCRIPTION] , aesthetically pleasing, vivid and vibrant colors, clean, pristine, liquid paint, white background --chaos 40 --quality 2 --profile 41zs3yb --stylize 900 --v 6.1
tweet
Yellowbrick Investing
$AMD
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$AMD
it happened, I'm finally bullish $AMD for a chip shot into earnings:
- we know trad server CPU is the main culprit behind this memory rip and the stock has seen no goodness
- Xilinx is finally ok which is their big gross profit driver (Alterra raising px)
- deal with $INTC is bullish since they aren't out in the cold with the govt + can be in good graces
- MI400X is unknowable but the space is so hot that the analyst day probably needs to be viewed as a positive catalyst post-print since they can guide a mega number and you won't be able to call BS on it tweet
X (formerly Twitter)
TBU (@TBU12345678) on X
it happened, I'm finally bullish $AMD for a chip shot into earnings:
- we know trad server CPU is the main culprit behind this memory rip and the stock has seen no goodness
- Xilinx is finally ok which is their big gross profit driver (Alterra raising px)…
- we know trad server CPU is the main culprit behind this memory rip and the stock has seen no goodness
- Xilinx is finally ok which is their big gross profit driver (Alterra raising px)…
Yellowbrick Investing
Shkreli’s portfolio volatility cracks me up
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Shkreli’s portfolio volatility cracks me up
10/2/25 +33% YTD attempt 3 https://t.co/FtFrZQyVup tweet
X (formerly Twitter)
Martin Shkreli (@MartinShkreli) on X
10/2/25 +33% YTD attempt 3 https://t.co/FtFrZQyVup
Offshore
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App Economy Insights
$TSLA Tesla beats Q3 deliveries estimates:
• Production: 447K.
• Deliveries: 497K (consensus of 448K).
Quarter boosted by the end of the $7,500 government tax credit.
Stay tuned for Q3 earnings on October 22! https://t.co/DRPgZezUaW
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$TSLA Tesla beats Q3 deliveries estimates:
• Production: 447K.
• Deliveries: 497K (consensus of 448K).
Quarter boosted by the end of the $7,500 government tax credit.
Stay tuned for Q3 earnings on October 22! https://t.co/DRPgZezUaW
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Offshore
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Umesh
RT @matt_elevenlabs: Announcing the @elevenlabsio Studio 3.0 community contest.
Create.
Share.
Win.
$2,000 in total prizes. https://t.co/ZCaL9Ebh1e
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RT @matt_elevenlabs: Announcing the @elevenlabsio Studio 3.0 community contest.
Create.
Share.
Win.
$2,000 in total prizes. https://t.co/ZCaL9Ebh1e
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Offshore
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Quiver Quantitative
UPDATE: Representative Cleo Fields bought stock in a Bitcoin mining company called IREN this summer.
It was the first time we had ever seen a politician buy this stock.
$IREN has now risen 180% since his trade.
180%
It's been less than 3 months. https://t.co/VRpfWuyEAu
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UPDATE: Representative Cleo Fields bought stock in a Bitcoin mining company called IREN this summer.
It was the first time we had ever seen a politician buy this stock.
$IREN has now risen 180% since his trade.
180%
It's been less than 3 months. https://t.co/VRpfWuyEAu
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