Yellowbrick Investing
Added 51 new stock write-ups to the site (pt final):
@aalim_rehman - $BC.MI (earnings)
@BastianelliLore - $ODD
@DavidDiranko (Monday Monitor) - $KHDHF, $AXR, $TRAC-B.ST, $SYNNF
@orel2589 - $WIX
@BlokeOak57182 - $GABI.L
fund letters
and more... https://t.co/nwrC83DjwG
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The Startup Ideas Podcast (SIP) 🧃
RT @gregisenberg: If I was trying to GROW an app or ecomm right now, I wouldn't waste money on influencers or ads.

I'd hire creators nobody's heard of and use this strategy that's working right now and generating 100k+ app installs to companies like focustree

Influencer with 100k followers: $2,000+ for one post. Gets maybe 30k views. Everyone knows it's an ad.

Creator with 500 followers: $900 for an entire month. Posts 30 times. Gets 500k+ views total. Feels more organic.

That's $1.80 per thousand views versus $6-12 on Facebook. And it doesn't look like an ad because it isn't one. It's just content.

"oH bUt ThaT's NoT PoSsIbLE, GrEG"

I agree, this shouldn't work. But it's happening more and more and here's why:

*new episode of the pod is live and we give you the playbook*

But TikTok's For You Page broke the entire game. The algorithm doesn't care about follower count anymore. It only cares if people watch. IG copied this. YT copied this. Everyone copied this.

Now some kid with 300 followers can outperform a verified influencer because their content is better. Not their audience. Their content.

Most brands haven't figured this out. They're still paying for follower count like it's 2019.

So, the smart play is hiring 10 creators instead of 1.

Example:

Pay 10 creators $900/month each. That's $9k total.

Each posts daily across TikTok, Reels, Shorts. That's 900 pieces of content per month. When one hits, you message the group: "Everyone copy this format."

Now 10 creators are using the winning formula with their own spin. The algorithm sees ten different videos, not reposts. One viral format becomes ten viral videos. Those teach you what works. You find the next format. It compounds.

How to find creators

Search your category on TikTok. You don't want influencers with media kits. You want people already making content about your space for fun.

DM them: "Want $900/month to keep doing what you're doing?" They're posting anyway. Now they're getting paid.

Run it through Discord or WhatsApp. Share what's working daily.

"This hook is crushing." "Try this sound."

Track everything. When something explodes, everyone pivots to that format until it stops working.

This only works for products that make sense in 10 seconds. Apps with one clear feature. Products under $50. Anything bought on impulse.

If you need a sales deck to explain it, this isn't for you.

The beauty is what happens beyond direct sales.

Someone sees your app on TikTok. They don't buy immediately. But next week they Google "that app from TikTok." Your search traffic spikes. Your app store ranking climbs. The halo effect is massive.

Right now this is pure arbitrage. In two years, agencies will package this, prices will 10x, and the window closes.

But today you can hire a creator army for what one influencer post costs.

You can test more in a week than most brands test in a year.

You're building a content machine.

All algortihms care about nowadays is if people stop scrolling.

Find creators who make people stop scrolling. Pay them to never stop posting. Share what works. Scale what hits.

People charge $10k for this sort of info.

We give it away for free on @startupideaspod 2x week. Thanks to @codyschneiderxx for jumping on and sharing.

We could keep this to ourselves

but where is the fun in that?

Fun is seeing you build a bootstrapped app to millions of users through this strategy

And sending me a dm

And saying

"thanks for the tip, professor g"

No worries, my friend

No worries.
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AkhenOsiris
$CRWD guides 2027 net new ARR 20% + growth
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AkhenOsiris
Oh well, send AMZN down (yet) again

Anthropic Faces Clash With Trump Administration After Refusing FBI, Secret Service, and ICE Use of Claude for Citizen Surveillance; White House Sees Political Bias as Firm Offers Separate Gov Models to Intelligence Agencies, Hires Former Biden Officials, and Lobbies Against Federal AI Regulation Preemption - Semafor

Via @perplexity_ai notis on - FSMN
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Umesh
Prompt :  The camera cranes down the cliff to an isolated sea stack where waves explode; the man leaps from the cliff onto the stack and scrambles upward, while the camera noses around the rock, the sea boiling below and the parent cliff towering behind. https://t.co/ny7jJicWXJ

Wow!

Wondering how much it would cost to make this video without AI.

Prompt ⤵️ https://t.co/sOUySm0Qh3 - Umesh
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Umesh
🎬 IMPACT 🎬

A short film about moments that change everything. https://t.co/ci56qkai9Q
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Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
10 Quality Stocks With >15% FCF CAGR Last 5 Years | FCF Yield Then vs NTM FCF Yield %💵

$SPGI +16% | 4.2% ➡️ 3.7%
$MA +17% | 2.2% ➡️ 3.0%
$GOOG +19% | 3.9% ➡️ 2.5%
$INTU +21% | 3.1% ➡️ 3.8%
$FICO +21% | 1.2% ➡️ 2.3%
$LRCX +23% | 5.9% ➡️ 3.7%
$CSU +24% | 4.6% ➡️ 4.0%
$ASML +29% | 2.9% ➡️ 2.7%
$CPRT +30% | 1.5% ➡️ 3.1%
$NVDA +70% | 2.3% ➡️ 3.0%
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Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
RT @DimitryNakhla: A quality valuation analysis on $SNPS 🧘🏽‍♂️

•NTM P/E Ratio: 30.84x
•5-Year Mean: 37.80x

•NTM FCF Yield: 2.42%
•5-Year Mean: 2.67%

As you can see, $SNPS appears to be trading somewhere below fair value & near fair value

Going forward, investors can receive ~22% MORE in earnings per share & ~9% LESS in FCF per share 🧠***

Before we get into valuation, let’s take a look at why $SNPS is a good business

BALANCE SHEET🆗
•Cash & Short-Term Inv: $2.59B
•Long-Term Debt: $14.32B

$SNPS has a good balance sheet & 5.38x FFO Interest Coverage

RETURN ON CAPITAL✅➡️🆗
•2020: 11.8%
•2021: 12.9%
•2022: 18.7%
•2023: 19.3%
•2024: 14.0%
•LTM: 2.6%

RETURN ON EQUITY✅➡️🆗
•2020: 14.7%
•2021: 14.8%
•2022: 17.8%
•2023: 20.7%
•2024: 18.6%
•LTM: 6.5%

$SNPS had stronger return metrics, but they decreased in the LTM due to the Ansys acquisition (to be expected)

REVENUES✅
•2019: $3.36B
•2024: $6.13B
•CAGR: 12.77%

FREE CASH FLOW✅
•2019: $602.38M
•2024: $1.28B
•CAGR: 16.34%

*FCF revised down in 2025 to $954.74M, with 2026E at $2.04B

NORMALIZED EPS✅
•2019: $4.56
•2024: $13.20
•CAGR: 23.68%

SHARE BUYBACKS❌
•2019 Shares Outstanding: 154.19M
•LTM Shares Outstanding: 157.68M

MARGINS✅
•LTM Gross Margins: 81.1%
•LTM Operating Margins: 17.2%
•LTM Net Income Margins: 18.1%

***NOW TO VALUATION 🧠

As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~22% MORE in EPS & ~9% LESS in FCF per share

Using Benjamin Graham’s 2G rule of thumb, $SNPS has to grow earnings at a 15.42% CAGR over the next several years to justify its valuation

Today, analysts anticipate 2025 - 2028 EPS growth over the next few years to be more than the (15.42%) required growth rate:

2025E: $12.82 (-3% YoY) *FY Oct

2026E: $14.02 (9% YoY)
2027E: $17.10 (22% YoY)
2028E: $20.17 (18% YoY)

$SNPS had a great track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, so let’s assume $SNPS ends 2028 with $20.17 in EPS & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples:

32x P/E: $645.44💵 … ~17.6% CAGR

31x P/E: $625.27💵 … ~16.4% CAGR

30x P/E: $605.10💵 … ~15.2% CAGR

29x P/E: $584.93💵 … ~14.0% CAGR

28x P/E: $564.76💵 … ~12.7% CAGR

27x P/E: $544.59💵 … ~11.4% CAGR

Given its quality, moat, predictability, & growth rate, I am comfortable relying on a ~28x multiple, making $SNPS a great consideration today at $387💵

$SNPS will thrive as AI and tech advancements drive chip demand, boosting the need for its cutting-edge semiconductor design software that helps create faster, smarter chips, among other things

Of course recent downward revisions impose a level of skepticism over the short-term, however EDA (75% of revenue) continues to be a strong segment, growing +23% YoY in its latest Q3 report

I consider $SNPS a strong purchase with a substantial margin of safety closer to $350💵, or ~27x NTM earnings (~10% below todays price)

Given today’s estimates, at $350💵 I can reasonably expect ~13.7% CAGR while assuming an attractive & conservative 26x multiple
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𝐃𝐈𝐒𝐂𝐋𝐎𝐒𝐔𝐑𝐄‼️: 𝐓𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐬 𝐍𝐎𝐓 𝐈𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐀𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞. 𝐁𝐚𝐛𝐲𝐥𝐨𝐧 𝐂𝐚𝐩𝐢𝐭𝐚𝐥® 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐢𝐭𝐬 𝐫𝐞𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐞𝐬 𝐦𝐚𝐲 𝐡𝐚𝐯𝐞 𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐞𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐞𝐬 𝐝𝐢𝐬𝐜𝐮𝐬𝐬𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭.

𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐚𝐥 𝐩𝐮𝐫𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐞𝐬 𝐨𝐧𝐥𝐲 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐬𝐡𝐨𝐮𝐥𝐝 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐛𝐞 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐮𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐚𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞 𝐭𝐨 𝐦𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐩𝐞𝐜𝐢𝐟𝐢𝐜 𝐧𝐞𝐞𝐝𝐬 𝐨𝐟 𝐚𝐧𝐲 𝐢𝐧𝐝𝐢𝐯𝐢𝐝𝐮𝐚𝐥 𝐨𝐫 𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐮𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧. 𝐏𝐚𝐬𝐭 𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐞 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞 𝐨𝐟 𝐟𝐮𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐮𝐥𝐭𝐬.

𝐈𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐡𝐚𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐞𝐧 𝐨𝐛𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐫𝐨𝐦 𝐬𝐨𝐮𝐫𝐜𝐞𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐝 𝐭𝐨 𝐛𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐚𝐛𝐥𝐞, 𝐛𝐮𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭�[...]