Offshore
Video
Iqra Saifi
Veo-3 fast on Gemini ๐๏ธ
"A hyper-realistic, dynamic tracking shot of two young men sharing a moment of pure, unadulterated joy while riding a motorcycle through a downpour on a tree-lined road.",
"mood": "Joyful, liberating, carefree, spontaneous, heartwarming.",
"style": "Cinematic slice-of-life, photorealistic CGI, 8K resolution, capturing a candid, authentic moment with a slightly desaturated, moody color palette."
},
"camera": "Dynamic Drone Tracking Shot",
"lens": "35mm Anamorphic Prime Lens",
"aperture": "f/2.8",
"position": "Starts alongside the motorcycle, at the riders' eye level, and smoothly orbits 180 degrees to the other side over the course of the shot.",
"focus": {
"point_of_interest": "The faces of the two men.",
"effect": "Shallow depth of field, keeping the riders in sharp focus while the rain-streaked background blurs beautifully, emphasizing their expressions and the sense of motion."
},
"movement": "A smooth, sweeping orbital track that feels energetic yet graceful. The camera is hit by occasional water splashes from the motorcycle's wheels."
},
"environment": {
"location": "A two-lane asphalt road winding through a lush, green forest or park.",
"weather": "A heavy, steady downpour. The scene is rendered with an advanced particle simulation for millions of individual, photorealistic raindrops.",
"road": "The asphalt is dark, wet, and highly reflective, mirroring the grey sky and the motorcycle's headlight. There are shallow puddles of water on the road.",
"foliage": "Dense, vibrant green trees and bushes line the road. The leaves are heavy with water, and PBR materials show water droplets clinging to them and running off.",
"atmosphere": "A cool, misty atmosphere. A subtle volumetric haze hangs between the trees, and the air is filled with a fine spray kicked up by the rain and the motorcycle."
},
"lighting": {
"primary_source": {
"type": "Overcast Sky",
"position": "Overhead, diffused by a thick layer of storm clouds.",
"color_temperature": "7000K (Cool, soft, blue-toned light)",
"intensity": "Moderate, creating a moody, atmospheric feel with soft, indistinct shadows."
},
"key_light": {
"type": "Motorcycle Headlight",
"color": "Warm white (3500K)",
"intensity": "Cuts through the rain, illuminating the wet road ahead and creating a bright, moving reflection."
},
"practical_lights": "The distant headlights and taillights of other cars are visible as soft, out-of-focus bokeh in the background."
},
"main_subjects": {
"characters": [
{
"role": "Driver",
"description": "A young man in his early twenties, with dark, rain-soaked hair plastered to his forehead. He is laughing heartily, his head tilted back slightly.",
"attire": "A bright yellow, waterproof jacket over a dark t-shirt, and dark pants. His clothes are visibly soaked."
},
{
"role": "Passenger",
"description": "Another young man of similar age, sitting behind the driver. His expression is one of pure exhilaration, with a wide-open laugh. His arms are spread wide, embracing the rain.",
"attire": "A simple t-shirt and a backpack, both completely drenched."
}
],
"vehicle": {
"type": "A classic, vintage-style motorcycle.",
"details": "Its chrome parts are beaded with water droplets, and its tires kick up a significant spray of water from the wet road, rendered with a high-resolution fluid simulation."
}
},
"animation": {
"primary_action": "The motorcycle maintains a steady, relaxed speed. At the 3.0s mark, it hits a larger puddle, sending a dramatic splash of water outwards.",
"character_animation": "Both men are animated with realistic, joyful laughter. The passenger leans into the turn as the camera orbits, his arms outstretched. Their clothes and hair are realistically simulated to be wet and affected by the wind.",
"subtle_effects": "Raindrops realistically streak across the camera lens and splash off the characte[...]
Veo-3 fast on Gemini ๐๏ธ
"A hyper-realistic, dynamic tracking shot of two young men sharing a moment of pure, unadulterated joy while riding a motorcycle through a downpour on a tree-lined road.",
"mood": "Joyful, liberating, carefree, spontaneous, heartwarming.",
"style": "Cinematic slice-of-life, photorealistic CGI, 8K resolution, capturing a candid, authentic moment with a slightly desaturated, moody color palette."
},
"camera": "Dynamic Drone Tracking Shot",
"lens": "35mm Anamorphic Prime Lens",
"aperture": "f/2.8",
"position": "Starts alongside the motorcycle, at the riders' eye level, and smoothly orbits 180 degrees to the other side over the course of the shot.",
"focus": {
"point_of_interest": "The faces of the two men.",
"effect": "Shallow depth of field, keeping the riders in sharp focus while the rain-streaked background blurs beautifully, emphasizing their expressions and the sense of motion."
},
"movement": "A smooth, sweeping orbital track that feels energetic yet graceful. The camera is hit by occasional water splashes from the motorcycle's wheels."
},
"environment": {
"location": "A two-lane asphalt road winding through a lush, green forest or park.",
"weather": "A heavy, steady downpour. The scene is rendered with an advanced particle simulation for millions of individual, photorealistic raindrops.",
"road": "The asphalt is dark, wet, and highly reflective, mirroring the grey sky and the motorcycle's headlight. There are shallow puddles of water on the road.",
"foliage": "Dense, vibrant green trees and bushes line the road. The leaves are heavy with water, and PBR materials show water droplets clinging to them and running off.",
"atmosphere": "A cool, misty atmosphere. A subtle volumetric haze hangs between the trees, and the air is filled with a fine spray kicked up by the rain and the motorcycle."
},
"lighting": {
"primary_source": {
"type": "Overcast Sky",
"position": "Overhead, diffused by a thick layer of storm clouds.",
"color_temperature": "7000K (Cool, soft, blue-toned light)",
"intensity": "Moderate, creating a moody, atmospheric feel with soft, indistinct shadows."
},
"key_light": {
"type": "Motorcycle Headlight",
"color": "Warm white (3500K)",
"intensity": "Cuts through the rain, illuminating the wet road ahead and creating a bright, moving reflection."
},
"practical_lights": "The distant headlights and taillights of other cars are visible as soft, out-of-focus bokeh in the background."
},
"main_subjects": {
"characters": [
{
"role": "Driver",
"description": "A young man in his early twenties, with dark, rain-soaked hair plastered to his forehead. He is laughing heartily, his head tilted back slightly.",
"attire": "A bright yellow, waterproof jacket over a dark t-shirt, and dark pants. His clothes are visibly soaked."
},
{
"role": "Passenger",
"description": "Another young man of similar age, sitting behind the driver. His expression is one of pure exhilaration, with a wide-open laugh. His arms are spread wide, embracing the rain.",
"attire": "A simple t-shirt and a backpack, both completely drenched."
}
],
"vehicle": {
"type": "A classic, vintage-style motorcycle.",
"details": "Its chrome parts are beaded with water droplets, and its tires kick up a significant spray of water from the wet road, rendered with a high-resolution fluid simulation."
}
},
"animation": {
"primary_action": "The motorcycle maintains a steady, relaxed speed. At the 3.0s mark, it hits a larger puddle, sending a dramatic splash of water outwards.",
"character_animation": "Both men are animated with realistic, joyful laughter. The passenger leans into the turn as the camera orbits, his arms outstretched. Their clothes and hair are realistically simulated to be wet and affected by the wind.",
"subtle_effects": "Raindrops realistically streak across the camera lens and splash off the characte[...]
Offshore
Iqra Saifi Veo-3 fast on Gemini ๐๏ธ "A hyper-realistic, dynamic tracking shot of two young men sharing a moment of pure, unadulterated joy while riding a motorcycle through a downpour on a tree-lined road.", "mood": "Joyful, liberating, carefree, spontaneousโฆ
rs' jackets and the motorcycle's surfaces. The leaves on the trees sway and drip in the rain."
},
"audio_design": {
"style": "Immersive, joyful, and authentic.",
"timeline": [
{
"time": "0.0s - 8.0s",
"sound": "The rich, layered sound of a heavy, steady rainfall on asphalt and leaves."
},
{
"time": "Throughout",
"sound": "The clear, genuine, and infectious laughter of the two men, positioned accurately in the stereo field as the camera moves."
},
{
"time": "Throughout",
"sound": "The steady, throaty hum of the motorcycle engine, mixed with the sound of its wet tires on the road."
},
{
"time": "3.0s",
"sound": "A loud, satisfying 'SPLASH' as the motorcycle goes through the puddle."
tweet
},
"audio_design": {
"style": "Immersive, joyful, and authentic.",
"timeline": [
{
"time": "0.0s - 8.0s",
"sound": "The rich, layered sound of a heavy, steady rainfall on asphalt and leaves."
},
{
"time": "Throughout",
"sound": "The clear, genuine, and infectious laughter of the two men, positioned accurately in the stereo field as the camera moves."
},
{
"time": "Throughout",
"sound": "The steady, throaty hum of the motorcycle engine, mixed with the sound of its wet tires on the road."
},
{
"time": "3.0s",
"sound": "A loud, satisfying 'SPLASH' as the motorcycle goes through the puddle."
tweet
Offshore
Video
Iqra Saifi
Veo-3 fast on Flow ๐ป
"A hyper-realistic, dynamic low-angle shot of a rugged, red off-road vehicle splashing through a muddy jungle puddle. The scene is vibrant, lush, and filled with the energy of an expedition.",
"mood": "Adventurous, exciting, rugged, vibrant, thrilling.",
"style": "Cinematic, high-contrast, photorealistic CGI, 8K resolution, inspired by modern adventure films and high-end car commercials."
},
"camera": {
"type": "Low-Angle Tracking Shot",
"lens": "28mm Wide-Angle Anamorphic Lens",
"aperture": "f/4.5",
"position": "Positioned extremely low to the ground, right at the edge of the puddle. The camera tracks sideways with the vehicle as it powers through the water.",
},
"movement": "A smooth, fast-paced lateral track that follows the vehicle. The camera is violently splashed with muddy water as the vehicle passes, adding a visceral, immersive effect."
},
"environment": {
"location": "A dense, tropical jungle with a muddy, single-track road.",
"foliage": "A rich variety of lush, vibrant green tropical plants, including large palm trees, ferns, and dense undergrowth. The PBR materials for the leaves should have a wet, glossy look from high humidity.",
"puddle": "A large, murky puddle of muddy water in the middle of the road. The water is rendered with a high-resolution fluid dynamics simulation.",
"sky": "A bright, beautiful blue sky with dramatic, puffy white clouds visible through gaps in the dense jungle canopy.",
"atmosphere": "The air is thick with humidity, creating a soft, subtle volumetric haze. Beams of sunlight pierce through the canopy, creating dappled light on the road and vehicle."
},
"lighting": {
"primary_source": {
"type": "Bright, Mid-day Tropical Sun",
"position": "High overhead, filtered through the jungle canopy.",
"color_temperature": "5800K (Bright, clean, natural daylight)",
"intensity": "Strong, creating high-contrast, dappled lighting with bright highlights and deep, dark shadows."
},
"fill_light": {
"type": "Bounce from Foliage and Sky",
"color": "Vibrant green from the surrounding jungle and soft blue from the sky.",
"intensity": "Fills in the shadows with rich color, enhancing the vibrant, tropical feel."
}
},
"main_subject": {
"vehicle": {
"type": "A red, heavily customized off-road SUV (similar to a Mahindra Thar).",
"details": {
"exterior": "Equipped with a roof rack carrying vintage-style luggage, a prominent bull bar, and large, knobby off-road tires. The vibrant red paint is splattered with wet, dark mud.",
"reflection": "A perfect, dynamic reflection of the vehicle is visible in the puddle's surface until it's shattered by the tires.",
"materials": "Hyper-realistic PBR materials for the glossy, mud-splattered paint, the wet rubber of the tires, and the textured plastic of the trim."
}
}
},
"animation": {
"primary_animation": "The vehicle drives through the puddle at a moderate speed, creating a massive, spectacular splash. The fluid simulation will show muddy water arcing high into the air and crashing down.",
"secondary_animation": "The vehicle's suspension realistically compresses and rebounds as it hits the water. The tires churn the water, creating a turbulent wake.",
"subtle_effects": "At 3.5s, the splash hits the camera lens, momentarily obscuring the view with realistic, CGI water droplets that then run down the virtual lens. The leaves of the foreground plants tremble and drip water from the force of the splash."
},
"audio_design": {
"style": "Powerful, immersive, and natural.",
"timeline": [
{
"time": "0.0s - 2.0s",
"sound": "The approaching rumble of a powerful diesel engine, mixed with the sounds of tires on a dirt road."
},
{
"time": "2.1s",
"sound": "A massive, explosive 'SPLASH' as the vehicle hits the puddle. The sound is deep, heavy, and detailed, with individual water sounds."
},
{
"time": "2.2s - 8.0s",
"sound"[...]
Veo-3 fast on Flow ๐ป
"A hyper-realistic, dynamic low-angle shot of a rugged, red off-road vehicle splashing through a muddy jungle puddle. The scene is vibrant, lush, and filled with the energy of an expedition.",
"mood": "Adventurous, exciting, rugged, vibrant, thrilling.",
"style": "Cinematic, high-contrast, photorealistic CGI, 8K resolution, inspired by modern adventure films and high-end car commercials."
},
"camera": {
"type": "Low-Angle Tracking Shot",
"lens": "28mm Wide-Angle Anamorphic Lens",
"aperture": "f/4.5",
"position": "Positioned extremely low to the ground, right at the edge of the puddle. The camera tracks sideways with the vehicle as it powers through the water.",
},
"movement": "A smooth, fast-paced lateral track that follows the vehicle. The camera is violently splashed with muddy water as the vehicle passes, adding a visceral, immersive effect."
},
"environment": {
"location": "A dense, tropical jungle with a muddy, single-track road.",
"foliage": "A rich variety of lush, vibrant green tropical plants, including large palm trees, ferns, and dense undergrowth. The PBR materials for the leaves should have a wet, glossy look from high humidity.",
"puddle": "A large, murky puddle of muddy water in the middle of the road. The water is rendered with a high-resolution fluid dynamics simulation.",
"sky": "A bright, beautiful blue sky with dramatic, puffy white clouds visible through gaps in the dense jungle canopy.",
"atmosphere": "The air is thick with humidity, creating a soft, subtle volumetric haze. Beams of sunlight pierce through the canopy, creating dappled light on the road and vehicle."
},
"lighting": {
"primary_source": {
"type": "Bright, Mid-day Tropical Sun",
"position": "High overhead, filtered through the jungle canopy.",
"color_temperature": "5800K (Bright, clean, natural daylight)",
"intensity": "Strong, creating high-contrast, dappled lighting with bright highlights and deep, dark shadows."
},
"fill_light": {
"type": "Bounce from Foliage and Sky",
"color": "Vibrant green from the surrounding jungle and soft blue from the sky.",
"intensity": "Fills in the shadows with rich color, enhancing the vibrant, tropical feel."
}
},
"main_subject": {
"vehicle": {
"type": "A red, heavily customized off-road SUV (similar to a Mahindra Thar).",
"details": {
"exterior": "Equipped with a roof rack carrying vintage-style luggage, a prominent bull bar, and large, knobby off-road tires. The vibrant red paint is splattered with wet, dark mud.",
"reflection": "A perfect, dynamic reflection of the vehicle is visible in the puddle's surface until it's shattered by the tires.",
"materials": "Hyper-realistic PBR materials for the glossy, mud-splattered paint, the wet rubber of the tires, and the textured plastic of the trim."
}
}
},
"animation": {
"primary_animation": "The vehicle drives through the puddle at a moderate speed, creating a massive, spectacular splash. The fluid simulation will show muddy water arcing high into the air and crashing down.",
"secondary_animation": "The vehicle's suspension realistically compresses and rebounds as it hits the water. The tires churn the water, creating a turbulent wake.",
"subtle_effects": "At 3.5s, the splash hits the camera lens, momentarily obscuring the view with realistic, CGI water droplets that then run down the virtual lens. The leaves of the foreground plants tremble and drip water from the force of the splash."
},
"audio_design": {
"style": "Powerful, immersive, and natural.",
"timeline": [
{
"time": "0.0s - 2.0s",
"sound": "The approaching rumble of a powerful diesel engine, mixed with the sounds of tires on a dirt road."
},
{
"time": "2.1s",
"sound": "A massive, explosive 'SPLASH' as the vehicle hits the puddle. The sound is deep, heavy, and detailed, with individual water sounds."
},
{
"time": "2.2s - 8.0s",
"sound"[...]
Offshore
Iqra Saifi Veo-3 fast on Flow ๐ป "A hyper-realistic, dynamic low-angle shot of a rugged, red off-road vehicle splashing through a muddy jungle puddle. The scene is vibrant, lush, and filled with the energy of an expedition.", "mood": "Adventurous, excitingโฆ
: "The sound of the engine roaring as it powers through the water, mixed with the continuous sound of churning and splashing."
tweet
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Offshore
Photo
Investing visuals
For the first time in years, $GOOGL's stock is now vastly outperforming $MSFT.
And itโs still trading at a lower valuation ๐ง https://t.co/yXYAuN6Y4m
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For the first time in years, $GOOGL's stock is now vastly outperforming $MSFT.
And itโs still trading at a lower valuation ๐ง https://t.co/yXYAuN6Y4m
tweet
Offshore
Photo
Gainify
$ADBE Q3 Earnings Call โ Key Points
1๏ธโฃ Optimistic Note: Overall sentiment is positive, with increased FY โ25 revenue and EPS targets post results.
2๏ธโฃ Strong Revenue Growth: Adobe's Q3 revenue hit $5.99B, reflecting 10% YoY growth, showcasing solid execution.
3๏ธโฃ AI Integration Gains Traction: AI-infused offerings exceed $5B ARR, a strong indicator of market demand and success.
4๏ธโฃ Positive Analyst Tone: Analysts showed confidence, probing management's strategy effectively without significant skepticism.
tweet
$ADBE Q3 Earnings Call โ Key Points
1๏ธโฃ Optimistic Note: Overall sentiment is positive, with increased FY โ25 revenue and EPS targets post results.
2๏ธโฃ Strong Revenue Growth: Adobe's Q3 revenue hit $5.99B, reflecting 10% YoY growth, showcasing solid execution.
3๏ธโฃ AI Integration Gains Traction: AI-infused offerings exceed $5B ARR, a strong indicator of market demand and success.
4๏ธโฃ Positive Analyst Tone: Analysts showed confidence, probing management's strategy effectively without significant skepticism.
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Offshore
Video
Reactions Videos
Man crying mad angry Iโm so freaking pissed off right now /// reaction meme https://t.co/gYXRxVCxPd
tweet
Man crying mad angry Iโm so freaking pissed off right now /// reaction meme https://t.co/gYXRxVCxPd
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Offshore
Photo
Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capitalยฎ
A quality valuation analysis on $ASML ๐ง๐ฝโโ๏ธ
โขNTM P/E Ratio: 29.88x
โข10-Year Mean: 31.10x
โขNTM FCF Yield: 2.90%
โข10-Year Mean: 3.05%
As you can see, $ASML appears to be trading near fair value
Going forward, investors can receive ~4% MORE in earnings per share & ~5% LESS in FCF per share๐ง ***
Before we get into valuation, letโs take a look at why $ASML is an excellent business (*Financials in USD*)
BALANCE SHEETโ
โขCash & Short Term Inv: $8.49B
โขLong-Term Debt: $4.33B
$ASML has a strong balance sheet & 68x FFO Interest Coverage
RETURN ON CAPITALโ
โข2021: 43.8%
โข2022: 48.0%
โข2023: 48.7%
โข2024: 38.3%
โขLTM: 51.8%
RETURN ON EQUITYโ
โข2021: 49.0%
โข2022: 59.4%
โข2023: 70.4%
โข2024: 47.4%
โขLTM: 58.2%
$ASML has excellent return metrics, highlighting the financial efficiency of the business
REVENUESโ
โข2014: $7.09B
โข2024: $29.28B
โขCAGR: 15.23%
FREE CASH FLOW*
โข $ASML FCF is very sporadic due to heavy capital expenditures & isnโt necessarily the most reliable way to analyze the companyโs value
โข2014: $1.23B
โข2024: $9.43B
โขCAGR: 22.59%
NORMALIZED EPSโ
โข2014: $3.15
โข2024: $20.03
โขCAGR: 20.31%
SHARE BUYBACKSโ
โข2018 Shares Outstanding: 426.40M
โขLTM Shares Outstanding: 392.00M
By reducing its shares outstanding ~8.0%, $ASML increased its EPS by ~8.7% (assuming 0 growth)
MARGINSโ
โขLTM Gross Margins: 52.5%
โขLTM Operating Margins: 34.8%
โขLTM Net Income Margins: 29.3%
***NOW TO VALUATION ๐ง
As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~4% MORE in EPS & 5% LESS in FCF per share
Using Benjamin Grahamโs 2G rule of thumb, $ASML has to grow earnings at a 14.94% CAGR over the next several years to justify its valuation
Today, analysts anticipate 2025 - 2028 EPS growth over the next few years to be more than the (14.94%) required growth rate:
2025E: $28.07 (22.0% YoY) *FY Dec
2026E: $29.84 (13.8% YoY)
2027E: $35.83 (21.3% YoY)
2028E: $40.00 (21.3% YoY)
$ASML has a decent track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out so letโs assume $ASML ends 2028 with $40.00 in EPS & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples:
31x P/E: $1240๐ต โฆ ~14.5% CAGR
30x P/E: $1200๐ต โฆ ~13.4% CAGR
29x P/E: $1160๐ต โฆ ~12.2% CAGR
28x P/E: $1120๐ต โฆ ~11.0% CAGR
27x P/E: $1080๐ต โฆ ~9.8% CAGR
As you can see, $ASML appears to have attractive return potential if we assume greater or equal to 29x EPS (below its 10-year mean, current multiple, & justified given its quality, moat & growth rate if we consider its 15.77% EPS CAGR Estimates 2026-2028)
Today at $813๐ต $ASML appears to be a good consideration for investment, albeit with extreme volatility & a smaller margin of safety than when it traded for ~26x in May 2025 (when I considered it a โstrong consideration for investmentโ)
#stocks #investing
___
๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐โผ๏ธ: ๐๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐๐๐ ๐๐ง๐ฏ๐๐ฌ๐ญ๐ฆ๐๐ง๐ญ ๐๐๐ฏ๐ข๐๐. ๐๐๐๐ฒ๐ฅ๐จ๐ง ๐๐๐ฉ๐ข๐ญ๐๐ฅยฎ ๐๐ง๐ ๐ข๐ญ๐ฌ ๐ซ๐๐ฉ๐ซ๐๐ฌ๐๐ง๐ญ๐๐ญ๐ข๐ฏ๐๐ฌ ๐ฆ๐๐ฒ ๐ก๐๐ฏ๐ ๐ฉ๐จ๐ฌ๐ข๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐ฌ๐๐๐ฎ๐ซ๐ข๐ญ๐ข๐๐ฌ ๐๐ข๐ฌ๐๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ฌ๐๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐๐๐ญ.
๐๐ก๐ ๐ข๐ง๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐๐จ๐ง๐ญ๐๐ข๐ง๐๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐๐๐ญ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง๐ญ๐๐ง๐๐๐ ๐๐จ๐ซ ๐ข๐ง๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐๐ฅ ๐ฉ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ฉ๐จ๐ฌ๐๐ฌ ๐จ๐ง๐ฅ๐ฒ ๐๐ง๐ ๐ฌ๐ก๐จ๐ฎ๐ฅ๐ ๐ง๐จ๐ญ ๐๐ ๐๐จ๐ง๐ฌ๐ญ๐ซ๐ฎ๐๐ ๐๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง๐ฏ๐๐ฌ๐ญ๐ฆ๐๐ง๐ญ ๐๐๐ฏ๐ข๐๐ ๐ญ๐จ ๐ฆ๐๐๐ญ ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐ฌ๐ฉ๐๐๐ข๐๐ข๐ ๐ง๐๐๐๐ฌ ๐จ๐ ๐๐ง๐ฒ ๐ข๐ง๐๐ข๐ฏ๐ข๐๐ฎ๐๐ฅ ๐จ๐ซ ๐ฌ๐ข๐ญ๐ฎ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง. ๐๐๐ฌ๐ญ ๐ฉ๐๐ซ๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ง๐๐ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ง๐จ ๐ ๐ฎ๐๐ซ๐๐ง๐ญ๐๐ ๐จ๐ ๐๐ฎ๐ญ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ ๐ซ๐๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ฅ๐ญ๐ฌ.
๐๐ง๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐๐จ๐ง๐ญ๐๐ข๐ง๐๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐๐๐ญ ๐ก๐๐ฌ ๐๐๐๐ง ๐จ๐๐ญ๐๐ข๐ง๐๐ ๐๐ซ๐จ๐ฆ ๐ฌ๐จ๐ฎ๐ซ๐๐๐ฌ ๐๐๐ฅ๐ข๐๐ฏ๐๐ ๐ญ๐จ ๐๐ ๐ซ๐๐ฅ๐ข๐๐๐ฅ๐, ๐๐ฎ๐ญ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ง๐จ๐ญ ๐ ๐ฎ๐๐ซ๐๐ง๐ญ๐๐๐ ๐๐ฌ ๐ญ๐จ ๐๐จ๐ฆ๐ฉ๐ฅ๐๐ญ๐๐ง๐๐ฌ๐ฌ ๐จ๐ซ ๐๐๐๐ฎ๐ซ๐๐๐ฒ.
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A quality valuation analysis on $ASML ๐ง๐ฝโโ๏ธ
โขNTM P/E Ratio: 29.88x
โข10-Year Mean: 31.10x
โขNTM FCF Yield: 2.90%
โข10-Year Mean: 3.05%
As you can see, $ASML appears to be trading near fair value
Going forward, investors can receive ~4% MORE in earnings per share & ~5% LESS in FCF per share๐ง ***
Before we get into valuation, letโs take a look at why $ASML is an excellent business (*Financials in USD*)
BALANCE SHEETโ
โขCash & Short Term Inv: $8.49B
โขLong-Term Debt: $4.33B
$ASML has a strong balance sheet & 68x FFO Interest Coverage
RETURN ON CAPITALโ
โข2021: 43.8%
โข2022: 48.0%
โข2023: 48.7%
โข2024: 38.3%
โขLTM: 51.8%
RETURN ON EQUITYโ
โข2021: 49.0%
โข2022: 59.4%
โข2023: 70.4%
โข2024: 47.4%
โขLTM: 58.2%
$ASML has excellent return metrics, highlighting the financial efficiency of the business
REVENUESโ
โข2014: $7.09B
โข2024: $29.28B
โขCAGR: 15.23%
FREE CASH FLOW*
โข $ASML FCF is very sporadic due to heavy capital expenditures & isnโt necessarily the most reliable way to analyze the companyโs value
โข2014: $1.23B
โข2024: $9.43B
โขCAGR: 22.59%
NORMALIZED EPSโ
โข2014: $3.15
โข2024: $20.03
โขCAGR: 20.31%
SHARE BUYBACKSโ
โข2018 Shares Outstanding: 426.40M
โขLTM Shares Outstanding: 392.00M
By reducing its shares outstanding ~8.0%, $ASML increased its EPS by ~8.7% (assuming 0 growth)
MARGINSโ
โขLTM Gross Margins: 52.5%
โขLTM Operating Margins: 34.8%
โขLTM Net Income Margins: 29.3%
***NOW TO VALUATION ๐ง
As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~4% MORE in EPS & 5% LESS in FCF per share
Using Benjamin Grahamโs 2G rule of thumb, $ASML has to grow earnings at a 14.94% CAGR over the next several years to justify its valuation
Today, analysts anticipate 2025 - 2028 EPS growth over the next few years to be more than the (14.94%) required growth rate:
2025E: $28.07 (22.0% YoY) *FY Dec
2026E: $29.84 (13.8% YoY)
2027E: $35.83 (21.3% YoY)
2028E: $40.00 (21.3% YoY)
$ASML has a decent track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out so letโs assume $ASML ends 2028 with $40.00 in EPS & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples:
31x P/E: $1240๐ต โฆ ~14.5% CAGR
30x P/E: $1200๐ต โฆ ~13.4% CAGR
29x P/E: $1160๐ต โฆ ~12.2% CAGR
28x P/E: $1120๐ต โฆ ~11.0% CAGR
27x P/E: $1080๐ต โฆ ~9.8% CAGR
As you can see, $ASML appears to have attractive return potential if we assume greater or equal to 29x EPS (below its 10-year mean, current multiple, & justified given its quality, moat & growth rate if we consider its 15.77% EPS CAGR Estimates 2026-2028)
Today at $813๐ต $ASML appears to be a good consideration for investment, albeit with extreme volatility & a smaller margin of safety than when it traded for ~26x in May 2025 (when I considered it a โstrong consideration for investmentโ)
#stocks #investing
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๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐โผ๏ธ: ๐๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐๐๐ ๐๐ง๐ฏ๐๐ฌ๐ญ๐ฆ๐๐ง๐ญ ๐๐๐ฏ๐ข๐๐. ๐๐๐๐ฒ๐ฅ๐จ๐ง ๐๐๐ฉ๐ข๐ญ๐๐ฅยฎ ๐๐ง๐ ๐ข๐ญ๐ฌ ๐ซ๐๐ฉ๐ซ๐๐ฌ๐๐ง๐ญ๐๐ญ๐ข๐ฏ๐๐ฌ ๐ฆ๐๐ฒ ๐ก๐๐ฏ๐ ๐ฉ๐จ๐ฌ๐ข๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐ฌ๐๐๐ฎ๐ซ๐ข๐ญ๐ข๐๐ฌ ๐๐ข๐ฌ๐๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ฌ๐๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐๐๐ญ.
๐๐ก๐ ๐ข๐ง๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐๐จ๐ง๐ญ๐๐ข๐ง๐๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐๐๐ญ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง๐ญ๐๐ง๐๐๐ ๐๐จ๐ซ ๐ข๐ง๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐๐ฅ ๐ฉ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ฉ๐จ๐ฌ๐๐ฌ ๐จ๐ง๐ฅ๐ฒ ๐๐ง๐ ๐ฌ๐ก๐จ๐ฎ๐ฅ๐ ๐ง๐จ๐ญ ๐๐ ๐๐จ๐ง๐ฌ๐ญ๐ซ๐ฎ๐๐ ๐๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง๐ฏ๐๐ฌ๐ญ๐ฆ๐๐ง๐ญ ๐๐๐ฏ๐ข๐๐ ๐ญ๐จ ๐ฆ๐๐๐ญ ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐ฌ๐ฉ๐๐๐ข๐๐ข๐ ๐ง๐๐๐๐ฌ ๐จ๐ ๐๐ง๐ฒ ๐ข๐ง๐๐ข๐ฏ๐ข๐๐ฎ๐๐ฅ ๐จ๐ซ ๐ฌ๐ข๐ญ๐ฎ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง. ๐๐๐ฌ๐ญ ๐ฉ๐๐ซ๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ง๐๐ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ง๐จ ๐ ๐ฎ๐๐ซ๐๐ง๐ญ๐๐ ๐จ๐ ๐๐ฎ๐ญ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ ๐ซ๐๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ฅ๐ญ๐ฌ.
๐๐ง๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐๐จ๐ง๐ญ๐๐ข๐ง๐๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐๐๐ญ ๐ก๐๐ฌ ๐๐๐๐ง ๐จ๐๐ญ๐๐ข๐ง๐๐ ๐๐ซ๐จ๐ฆ ๐ฌ๐จ๐ฎ๐ซ๐๐๐ฌ ๐๐๐ฅ๐ข๐๐ฏ๐๐ ๐ญ๐จ ๐๐ ๐ซ๐๐ฅ๐ข๐๐๐ฅ๐, ๐๐ฎ๐ญ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ง๐จ๐ญ ๐ ๐ฎ๐๐ซ๐๐ง๐ญ๐๐๐ ๐๐ฌ ๐ญ๐จ ๐๐จ๐ฆ๐ฉ๐ฅ๐๐ญ๐๐ง๐๐ฌ๐ฌ ๐จ๐ซ ๐๐๐๐ฎ๐ซ๐๐๐ฒ.
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