Offshore
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ToffCap
We're out with TMM #69, our weekly overview of actionable event-driven and special sits 🔥🔥
This week:
- some pretty interesting M&A (not priced in)
- some strongly depressed valuations purely on sentiment (while fundamentals move up)
- companies that just want to be shorted
- pico-caps trading at 3.3% of their book value with quite some optionality
- a (future) European Bitcoin treasury co with strong backers (and an ED catalyst ofc)
- pizza
- massive insider purchases in some good lookin' companies
- ... and much more.
As always @ToffCap. Enjoy!
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We're out with TMM #69, our weekly overview of actionable event-driven and special sits 🔥🔥
This week:
- some pretty interesting M&A (not priced in)
- some strongly depressed valuations purely on sentiment (while fundamentals move up)
- companies that just want to be shorted
- pico-caps trading at 3.3% of their book value with quite some optionality
- a (future) European Bitcoin treasury co with strong backers (and an ED catalyst ofc)
- pizza
- massive insider purchases in some good lookin' companies
- ... and much more.
As always @ToffCap. Enjoy!
tweet
Offshore
Photo
Quiver Quantitative
RT @InsiderRadar: BREAKING: New CEO Insider Purchase at $NVCR
The CEO has just reported purchasing $1m of the company's stock, increasing his holdings by 23%.
This is the first insider purchase that has been reported at the company in over 4 years. https://t.co/UhOgSPfVi1
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RT @InsiderRadar: BREAKING: New CEO Insider Purchase at $NVCR
The CEO has just reported purchasing $1m of the company's stock, increasing his holdings by 23%.
This is the first insider purchase that has been reported at the company in over 4 years. https://t.co/UhOgSPfVi1
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Offshore
Video
Aadit Sheth
RT @neatprompts: Instead of watching a 2-hour movie, watch this masterclass on productivity
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RT @neatprompts: Instead of watching a 2-hour movie, watch this masterclass on productivity
This guy literally rewires your brain to never feel lazy again
https://t.co/2AFKkMR1Yq tweet
Offshore
Photo
Dalius - Special Sits
Excellent sources provided by Michael👇
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Excellent sources provided by Michael👇
Public service announcement: I’ve set up a directory for finance-related Substack newsletters.
Let me know if you have any additional publications you would like me to add! https://t.co/tGNjmPYnab tweet
Offshore
Video
Iqra Saifi
Veo-3 on @haimeta_ai ❄️❤️🔥
A hyper-realistic, medium shot captures a graceful woman dancing on a frozen lake at twilight. She wears a deep crimson ball gown, its lower third seamlessly transformed into realistic, animated fire that flares with her movement.
The setting is a snow-covered pine forest under a dusky violet sky, with gentle snowfall and her breath visible in the cold air. The mystical, elegant, and powerful mood is enhanced by the dramatic contrast between the warm, flickering light from her flaming dress and the cool, blue twilight. The fire casts dancing reflections on the mirror-like ice.
Rendered in cinematic high-fantasy, photorealistic CGI at 8K resolution, the camera executes a slow, dream-like orbital shot. It begins focused on her razor-sharp face and torso, with an extremely shallow depth of field, gradually revealing the impossible flames as it orbits. The shot is inspired by high-fashion editorials and fantasy art.
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Veo-3 on @haimeta_ai ❄️❤️🔥
A hyper-realistic, medium shot captures a graceful woman dancing on a frozen lake at twilight. She wears a deep crimson ball gown, its lower third seamlessly transformed into realistic, animated fire that flares with her movement.
The setting is a snow-covered pine forest under a dusky violet sky, with gentle snowfall and her breath visible in the cold air. The mystical, elegant, and powerful mood is enhanced by the dramatic contrast between the warm, flickering light from her flaming dress and the cool, blue twilight. The fire casts dancing reflections on the mirror-like ice.
Rendered in cinematic high-fantasy, photorealistic CGI at 8K resolution, the camera executes a slow, dream-like orbital shot. It begins focused on her razor-sharp face and torso, with an extremely shallow depth of field, gradually revealing the impossible flames as it orbits. The shot is inspired by high-fashion editorials and fantasy art.
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AkhenOsiris
$DKNG $FLUT $GENI $SRAD
Kalshi offered worse odds than the OSB market leaders in the first weekend of the NFL, with pricing that was up to 23% more expensive than FanDuel on Friday night’s NFL slate, according to analysis from Citizens.
The analysts found that Kalshi failed to deliver on the expectation of better exchange pricing.
Instead, there were distinct differentials between Kalshi on the one hand and FanDuel and DraftKings on the other.
Citizens found that pricing on Kalshi for the money line and over/under was 10% and 25% more expensive compared to DraftKings for the NFL slate on Friday, and 16% and 23% more expensive compared to FanDuel.
Pricing tightened between the traditional sportsbooks and Kalshi for Sunday’s games, yet the average of the money line was still 7% more expensive compared to FanDuel/DraftKings, with over/under 10% more expensive.
Citizens said it will be monitoring pricing during the season to see if the gap between Kalshi and the major sportsbooks closes. “If we see the spread starting to tighten, it implies the model is working (higher liquidity) and/or Kalshi is offering fewer incentives to market makers,” the team added.
“In our view, the spread should narrow as user adoption (and liquidity) improves throughout the football season.”
Whale meet again: Citizens made the point that Kalshi provides more favorable terms to VIPs and institutions, who are not subject to its normal fees in order to encourage more liquidity with the ultimate goal of increasing betting liquidity and causing a snowball effect.
The hope from this is that it will create tighter pricing overall, “helping out the average consumer by providing more competitive odds.”
Even if pricing improves, Citizens remain skeptical, noting that, even as Kalshi attempts to roll out parlays, they expect pricing to be “even more inferior” compared to the major sportsbooks given the collateral that will be needed by the market makers to trade the product.
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$DKNG $FLUT $GENI $SRAD
Kalshi offered worse odds than the OSB market leaders in the first weekend of the NFL, with pricing that was up to 23% more expensive than FanDuel on Friday night’s NFL slate, according to analysis from Citizens.
The analysts found that Kalshi failed to deliver on the expectation of better exchange pricing.
Instead, there were distinct differentials between Kalshi on the one hand and FanDuel and DraftKings on the other.
Citizens found that pricing on Kalshi for the money line and over/under was 10% and 25% more expensive compared to DraftKings for the NFL slate on Friday, and 16% and 23% more expensive compared to FanDuel.
Pricing tightened between the traditional sportsbooks and Kalshi for Sunday’s games, yet the average of the money line was still 7% more expensive compared to FanDuel/DraftKings, with over/under 10% more expensive.
Citizens said it will be monitoring pricing during the season to see if the gap between Kalshi and the major sportsbooks closes. “If we see the spread starting to tighten, it implies the model is working (higher liquidity) and/or Kalshi is offering fewer incentives to market makers,” the team added.
“In our view, the spread should narrow as user adoption (and liquidity) improves throughout the football season.”
Whale meet again: Citizens made the point that Kalshi provides more favorable terms to VIPs and institutions, who are not subject to its normal fees in order to encourage more liquidity with the ultimate goal of increasing betting liquidity and causing a snowball effect.
The hope from this is that it will create tighter pricing overall, “helping out the average consumer by providing more competitive odds.”
Even if pricing improves, Citizens remain skeptical, noting that, even as Kalshi attempts to roll out parlays, they expect pricing to be “even more inferior” compared to the major sportsbooks given the collateral that will be needed by the market makers to trade the product.
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Offshore
Photo
Gainify
$ADBE has delivered 10/10 quarters of EPS & revenue beats in a row ✅
But Adobe's stock has gone nowhere over the same period and is one of the worst YTD performers.
Earnings Thursday: the streak is nice, but the market only cares about guidance and AI-driven product strategy now?
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$ADBE has delivered 10/10 quarters of EPS & revenue beats in a row ✅
But Adobe's stock has gone nowhere over the same period and is one of the worst YTD performers.
Earnings Thursday: the streak is nice, but the market only cares about guidance and AI-driven product strategy now?
tweet
Offshore
Video
Umesh
One prompt.
Two keyframe images.
Comparison of four video models.
Individual renders and prompt ⤵️ https://t.co/DtV3wUsDEp
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One prompt.
Two keyframe images.
Comparison of four video models.
Individual renders and prompt ⤵️ https://t.co/DtV3wUsDEp
tweet
Offshore
Photo
Aadit Sheth
This guy literally teaches how to fix your broken attention span https://t.co/TmqE4kDAa7
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This guy literally teaches how to fix your broken attention span https://t.co/TmqE4kDAa7
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