naiive
First day 3 Years
in Crypto in Crypto
https://t.co/YJxwXd3PuB
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naiive
SeptemBounce
Uptober
Pumvember
Bullcember

then Pamp ... JanMoonAry.... https://t.co/YA9RphrQJF
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naiive
BREAKING : Michael Saylor just bought another 4,000 BTC for $0.5B https://t.co/WMC45uldxN
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Gainify
DIVIDEND WATCH: Is $NVO becoming one of the best dividend stocks right now?

➡️ DPS set to grow 10% annually over the next 3 years
➡️ Solid current yield of 3.3%

Growth + income = a powerful combo. https://t.co/NLifpc3v1X
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Yellowbrick Investing
$UTHR

$UTHR don´t really know the name but putting together some basics at roughly 440/450:
20 bln market cap with 5 bln in net cash
-> 15 bln EV (excluded the post-earnings buyback here)
3.2 bln of existing sales with 1.25 bln of NOPAT (annualizing H1 2025)
- IPF should be very incremental to earnings, ChatGPT seeing 3-4 bln in sales with 25% penetration (which sounds low for a high unmet need market?). That should hit totally different towards PnL than the first/current 3 bln, no?

Ton of stuff I know absolutely nothing(!) about here, but that does not look like a challenging valuation?

Feels like this will just be the next ALNY/INSM large cap going up every day and beloved by generalists?

What am I missing? Whats breaking the case here? - AnotherBioInvestor
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naiive
Everyone on X : " just buy the dip "

me: https://t.co/V4q1Cn2GDX
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Yellowbrick Investing
$MANO.L

I just bought $MANO.L, and here’s why I’m bullish on Manolete Partners:

Manolete is a player in the UK insolvency litigation funding market with a 67% share of the Third Party Funding (TPF) market.

The thesis is simple:
- Market Leader in a Growing Niche (they are THE best)
- Huge macro tailwind after years of "worst-case-scenario" with the government saving companies from going bankrupt during Covid-19.
- Clear signs of ARRCC (Average Realised Return per Completed Case) going back to pre-COVID of closer to £200.000k (compared to £101k). Hear is why that is probably THE SINGLE MOST IMPORTANT metric to follow.
CEO said the following in q2 CC:
"So what should happen over the next one, two, three, four years is that we will trend nicely back up to the pre COVID norm of around £200,000. And that will drop pretty directly to the bottom line profit because there won't be an incremental increase in costs at all."
In other words, their margins will go to the roof compared to now.
Net margin in 2019 = 46,7%
Net margin now = 2,9%

Highly likely scenario in 2 years, assuming 10% decrease in revenue and only a net margin of 15% to see how big of a margin of safety we have:
£27m revenue with a net margin of 15 = £4m
Market cap of £42m / £4m = P/E 10,5 which is not at all unreasonable.

So if I see the net margin above 15% and zero growth two years out, I will, with a very high probability, make money.

In a few years, let's say they hit £200k ARRCC and no growth in cases (conservative), the upside looks a bit different:
rev goes to £60m, net margin of 30% = £18m in profit
Market cap of £42 / £18m in profit = P/E of 2,3
"Risk is the uncertainty and potential for negative outcomes that arise from a lack of knowledge or preparation in decision-making."

A lot can go wrong here, and I will still make money on this investment! - Christian Svane
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AlexandrIA
From the sublime to the seriously questionable … all in one thread!

Prompt Suggestion in ALT! 🧵 https://t.co/OpzQa9P9DC
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Evan
UNITED STATES 🇺🇸 REVOKES TSMC $TSM WAIVER ALLOWING CHINA'S 🇨🇳 SHIPMENTS OF CHIP SUPPLIES
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Dalius - Special Sits
RT @HayekAndKeynes: History offered a good reminder of a few perennial truths in financial markets: you never know which assets will be correlated in a stress period, diversification is the only free lunch (even among similar assets), and you can never underestimate the benefit of speed.

This morning I was watching a documentary on Hong Kong that discussed the Panic of 1866, which began when worthless Confederate bonds helped bring down the major London liquidity provider, Overend, Gurney & Company. This bank's collapse triggered a broader bank run in London, which in turn caused the failure of a trading firm called Dent & Co in Hong Kong. Meanwhile, their competitor Jardines avoided disaster because they received their mail an hour earlier.
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ToffCap
RT @ToffCap: Out with TMM #68, our weekly overview of actionable event-driven and special sits 🔥🔥

This week:

- SOTP unlocks with catalysts
- an Amer Sports 2.0?
- transformational deals not yet recognized in the price
- a low p/e company growing rapidly with a ton of cash on the b/s and an upcoming spin of a sub which makes it all more fascinating
- potentially juicy tender offers
- some very speculative pico-caps where a lot is going on
- ... and much more.

As always @ToffCap. Enjoy!
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