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Julian Goldie SEO
Holy sh*t! 😳 This FREE AI agent just broke the internet!
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While other AIs use 6 sources, this uses 30! 📚
It's like having 10 AI workers for FREE 🔥
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Holy sh*t! 😳 This FREE AI agent just broke the internet!
Skywork can research, write, AND make podcasts 🎯
While other AIs use 6 sources, this uses 30! 📚
It's like having 10 AI workers for FREE 🔥
Everyone's about to copy this...
Link in comments 👇 https://t.co/HclsvBTzgY
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Kris Kashtanova
✨ spark of wonder, curiosity, and boundless possibility lives within you ✨ https://t.co/q5zQbY2xiK
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✨ spark of wonder, curiosity, and boundless possibility lives within you ✨ https://t.co/q5zQbY2xiK
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Kris Kashtanova
RT @icreatelife: Have a productive Monday, loves!
Making something nice for you with AI.
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RT @icreatelife: Have a productive Monday, loves!
Making something nice for you with AI.
Can't wait to share. https://t.co/CrEfe2KY2U
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Capital Employed
Interesting idea. Hoffman Green Cement $ALHGR.PA
Here's my rough thesis on Hoffman Green Cement: $alhgr.pa
They are just a baby in terms of cement production, having produced just ~16k tons in 2024. To put this in perspective, a large Portland cement factory can produce 3 Million tons in a year.
They plan on producing 1 million tons of cement by 2030. Assuming €150/ton and 10% NI margins (industry average), that equates to €15mm in net income by 2030. At a 10x multiple, thats a €150mm market cap- a double from today's valuation. Demand is strong, and they already had 360k tons in backorders coming into 2025. In 2024, they secured 7 multi year contracts with French builders. As you can see from the chart below, French concrete is finally recovering from a brutal downturn. In terms of the capital cycle- the country was over-supplied with cement as demand fell. Big players are closing French cement production facilities. This is bullish.
I think margins can be even higher than industry averages as they use far less energy than Portland cement makers. Much of their process is automated, so they only need about 1/2 the workers. Green Cement is in strong demand and is a premium product. It fetches a higher price, so both gross margins and operating margins could be much higher than the industry norm. At 12% NI margins, the 2030 market cap would be €180mm. A higher multiple is warranted if margins are indeed industry-leading. At 13x, the stock is a triple from today's market cap of €76mm.
And we haven't even got to the royalty and licensing fee verticals. This is what really makes the opportunity special. Hoffman's chemical process is patented in many countries including China. Their H2 factory not only makes cement, but serves as a showcase for their product. You can build the H2 factory for less than €25mm and make your own Hoffman Green Cement. Hoffman charges an undisclosed license fee as well as receives an unspecified royalty on all cement going forward, presumably until their 20 year patent expire. Again, demand is strong. Within a year of the H2 prototype completion, orders for the new factories are coming in from the US, UK, and Saudi Arabia. It's hard to put a number on how big these numbers could get. Of the ~€13mm in revenue in 2024, €10.5mm of it came from licensing fees.
By weight, cement is the most manufactured industrial material on earth. It constitutes 6-8% of global emissions. There are numerous start-ups attacking the issue- some backed by huge investors. But I am convinced that Hoffman is currently the best. Generally, so called 'Green Cement' falls into 4 categories.
1. Additives in the kiln that lower the energy used in making cement. (Ecocem)
2. Alternative fuels to fire the kiln.
3. Carbon capture
4. Electrolysis to alter/bind silica to make cement. (Sublime)
Options 1-3 still require melting rocks at 1,400°C for 8 hours. The last one will presumably require lots of electricity. Carbon capture requires paying for the carbon byproduct to be shipped and then buried underground in a carbon sink (weird).
Enter Hoffman. They use chemical reactions to make cement. They still need some heat-especially when using their clay substrate. But it only needs to be heated to 750°C for a few seconds. Hence it uses much less energy and requires far less supervision from humans. Traditional cement plants need to be built next to a limestone quarry. Hoffman's smaller, vertically oriented plants can be built just about anywhere (though they'll still need access to slag, clay, or fly ash)
If a 500k ton facility costs just €25mm, then investors are breaking even in less than 3 years. That pretty good ROI.
Lets say Hoffman sells 20 H2 500k ton cement plants globally in 5 years and charges a 1% royalty. That's €15mm in revenue and EBIT. Add this to the €18mm in Net Income from their own cement production and your at roughly €28mm in net income, excluding any licensing fees.
At 12x, that's €336 mrkt c[...]
Interesting idea. Hoffman Green Cement $ALHGR.PA
Here's my rough thesis on Hoffman Green Cement: $alhgr.pa
They are just a baby in terms of cement production, having produced just ~16k tons in 2024. To put this in perspective, a large Portland cement factory can produce 3 Million tons in a year.
They plan on producing 1 million tons of cement by 2030. Assuming €150/ton and 10% NI margins (industry average), that equates to €15mm in net income by 2030. At a 10x multiple, thats a €150mm market cap- a double from today's valuation. Demand is strong, and they already had 360k tons in backorders coming into 2025. In 2024, they secured 7 multi year contracts with French builders. As you can see from the chart below, French concrete is finally recovering from a brutal downturn. In terms of the capital cycle- the country was over-supplied with cement as demand fell. Big players are closing French cement production facilities. This is bullish.
I think margins can be even higher than industry averages as they use far less energy than Portland cement makers. Much of their process is automated, so they only need about 1/2 the workers. Green Cement is in strong demand and is a premium product. It fetches a higher price, so both gross margins and operating margins could be much higher than the industry norm. At 12% NI margins, the 2030 market cap would be €180mm. A higher multiple is warranted if margins are indeed industry-leading. At 13x, the stock is a triple from today's market cap of €76mm.
And we haven't even got to the royalty and licensing fee verticals. This is what really makes the opportunity special. Hoffman's chemical process is patented in many countries including China. Their H2 factory not only makes cement, but serves as a showcase for their product. You can build the H2 factory for less than €25mm and make your own Hoffman Green Cement. Hoffman charges an undisclosed license fee as well as receives an unspecified royalty on all cement going forward, presumably until their 20 year patent expire. Again, demand is strong. Within a year of the H2 prototype completion, orders for the new factories are coming in from the US, UK, and Saudi Arabia. It's hard to put a number on how big these numbers could get. Of the ~€13mm in revenue in 2024, €10.5mm of it came from licensing fees.
By weight, cement is the most manufactured industrial material on earth. It constitutes 6-8% of global emissions. There are numerous start-ups attacking the issue- some backed by huge investors. But I am convinced that Hoffman is currently the best. Generally, so called 'Green Cement' falls into 4 categories.
1. Additives in the kiln that lower the energy used in making cement. (Ecocem)
2. Alternative fuels to fire the kiln.
3. Carbon capture
4. Electrolysis to alter/bind silica to make cement. (Sublime)
Options 1-3 still require melting rocks at 1,400°C for 8 hours. The last one will presumably require lots of electricity. Carbon capture requires paying for the carbon byproduct to be shipped and then buried underground in a carbon sink (weird).
Enter Hoffman. They use chemical reactions to make cement. They still need some heat-especially when using their clay substrate. But it only needs to be heated to 750°C for a few seconds. Hence it uses much less energy and requires far less supervision from humans. Traditional cement plants need to be built next to a limestone quarry. Hoffman's smaller, vertically oriented plants can be built just about anywhere (though they'll still need access to slag, clay, or fly ash)
If a 500k ton facility costs just €25mm, then investors are breaking even in less than 3 years. That pretty good ROI.
Lets say Hoffman sells 20 H2 500k ton cement plants globally in 5 years and charges a 1% royalty. That's €15mm in revenue and EBIT. Add this to the €18mm in Net Income from their own cement production and your at roughly €28mm in net income, excluding any licensing fees.
At 12x, that's €336 mrkt c[...]
Offshore
Capital Employed Interesting idea. Hoffman Green Cement $ALHGR.PA Here's my rough thesis on Hoffman Green Cement: $alhgr.pa They are just a baby in terms of cement production, having produced just ~16k tons in 2024. To put this in perspective, a large Portland…
ap, or 4.5x today's valuation of €76mm. - Tintin Capital tweet