⁠Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
Novo Nordisk $NVO has surged an impressive +35% in under two months since hitting its recent lows 🧬

As price action often shapes sentiment, expect a more bullish narrative to emerge around the company in the near future, reflecting this strong upward momentum 📈 https://t.co/o36lXPGD68
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⁠Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
A quality valuation analysis on $MELI 🧘🏽‍♂️

•NTM P/E Ratio: 44.73x
•2-Year Mean: 49.82x

As you can see, $MELI appears to be trading near fair value

Going forward, investors can receive ~11% MORE in earnings per share 🧠***

Before we get into valuation, let’s take a look at why $MELI is a great business

BALANCE SHEET✅
•Cash & Short-Term Inv: $8.07B
•Long-Term Debt: $2.80B

$MELI has a strong balance sheet, an ok BB+ S&P Credit Rating & 45x FFO Interest Coverage

RETURN ON CAPITAL🆗➡️✅
•2020: 3.7%
•2021: 8.1%
•2022: 14.7%
•2023: 25.7%
•2024: 23.0%
•LTM: 22.2%

RETURN ON EQUITY🆗➡️✅
•2020: (0.1%)
•2021: 5.2%
•2022: 28.7%
•2023: 40.3%
•2024: 51.5%
•LTM: 49.1%

$MELI has strong and improved return metrics, highlighting the financial efficiency of the business

REVENUES✅
•2019: $2.30B
•2024: $20.78B
•CAGR: 55.30%

FREE CASH FLOW✅
•2019: $314.29M
•2024: $7.05B
•CAGR: 86.32%

NORMALIZED EPS✅
•2019: ($3.71)
•2024: $37.69

SHARE BUYBACKS❌
•2019 Shares Outstanding: 48.69M
•LTM Shares Outstanding: 50.70M

MARGINS🆗➡️✅
•LTM Gross Margins: 52.2%
•LTM Operating Margins: 12.8%
•LTM Net Income Margins: 9.2%

***NOW TO VALUATION 🧠

As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~11% MORE in EPS

Using Benjamin Graham’s 2G rule of thumb, $MELI has to grow earnings at a 22.37% CAGR over the next several years to justify its valuation

Today, analysts anticipate 2025 - 2027 EPS growth over the next few years to be more than the (22.37%) required growth rate:

2025E: $49.80 (32.1% YoY)
2026E: $67.36 (35.3% YoY)
2027E: $89.38 (32.7% YoY)

$MELI has an ok track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, but let’s assume $MELI ends 2027 with $89.38 in EPS & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples

40x P/E: $3569💵 … ~16.5% CAGR

38x P/E: $3330💵 … ~14.2% CAGR

36x P/E: $3212💵 … ~11.8% CAGR

34x P/E: $3033💵 … ~9.4% CAGR

As you can see, $MELI appears to have attractive return potential IF we assume >36x earnings (a multiple justified by its growth rate & moat)

$MELI boasts an expansive growth trajectory, fueled by powerful network effects that should drive sustained momentum

Key factors contributing to its promising outlook include 🔑

1. Margin expansion

2. Unparalleled access to Latin America's burgeoning economy

3. Network effects & scale economies shared that produce self-reinforcing dynamics ensuring long-term competitiveness, among other things

Those buying $MELI today at $2411💵 are buying it for a slightly better than fair price, with little margin of safety — these growth rates have to be revised down substantially for $MELI to miss the mark, even if the company grows earnings at 25% CAGR over the next 5 years, shareholders will likely end up with a decent return

I consider $MELI a stronger buy closer to $2250💵 (~7% below today’s price) where I can reasonably expect ~12% CAGR while assuming a conservative 34x end multiple, ensuring a larger margin of safety

#stocks #investing
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𝐃𝐈𝐒𝐂𝐋𝐎𝐒𝐔𝐑𝐄‼️: 𝐓𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐬 𝐍𝐎𝐓 𝐈𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐀𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞. 𝐁𝐚𝐛𝐲𝐥𝐨𝐧 𝐂𝐚𝐩𝐢𝐭𝐚𝐥® 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐢𝐭𝐬 𝐫𝐞𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐞𝐬 𝐦𝐚𝐲 𝐡𝐚𝐯𝐞 𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐞𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐞𝐬 𝐝𝐢𝐬𝐜𝐮𝐬𝐬𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭.

𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐚𝐥 𝐩𝐮𝐫𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐞𝐬 𝐨𝐧𝐥𝐲 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐬𝐡𝐨𝐮𝐥𝐝 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐛𝐞 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐮𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐚𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞 𝐭𝐨 𝐦𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐩𝐞𝐜𝐢𝐟𝐢𝐜 𝐧𝐞𝐞𝐝𝐬 𝐨𝐟 𝐚𝐧𝐲 𝐢𝐧𝐝𝐢𝐯𝐢𝐝𝐮𝐚𝐥 𝐨𝐫 𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐮𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧. 𝐏𝐚𝐬𝐭 𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐞 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞 𝐨𝐟 𝐟𝐮𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐮𝐥𝐭𝐬.

𝐈𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜�[...]

�𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐡𝐚𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐞𝐧 𝐨𝐛𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐫𝐨𝐦 𝐬𝐨𝐮𝐫𝐜𝐞𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐝 𝐭𝐨 𝐛𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐚𝐛𝐥𝐞, 𝐛𝐮𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐭𝐨 𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐩𝐥𝐞𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐞𝐬𝐬 𝐨𝐫 𝐚𝐜𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐚𝐜𝐲.
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⁠Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
RT @DimitryNakhla: Did you know Copart $CPRT owns a lot of land?

$CPRT land, valued at $2.03B today up from $105M in 2004, is understated on its balance sheet due to accounting rules that use historical purchase prices rather than current market values

A key driver of its competitive edge 🚘 https://t.co/trYuKvzwno
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⁠Investing visuals
AI is reshaping the future. Key players every investor should know:

• Chip design: $ARM, $NVDA, $AMD
• Components: $TSM, $MU, $SMCI
• Manufacturers: $TSM, $AVGO, $ANET
• Power: $SU, $CEG, $EMR
• Equipment: $ASML, $KLAC, $AMAT https://t.co/apm4uCP1TL
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⁠Quiver Quantitative
RT @InsiderRadar: $RFL stock has ended the day up 27%, after this insider trade was reported last night https://t.co/x8H2Tkytu6

🚨BREAKING: Massive New CEO Insider Purchase at $RFL

The CEO has just reported purchasing $16.7M of the company's stock, increasing his ownership stake by 813%.

This is the first insider purchase we have seen at the company in over 2 years. - Insider Radar
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⁠Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
Inflation (CPI) report for May at +2.4% YoY, below expectations of +2.5% 💵

Source: US Bureaus of Labor Statistics https://t.co/cQube8IJ04
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⁠Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
BUYBACK KINGS 👑 15 Quality Stocks That Reduced Share Count >15% last 10 Years 💵

🧐Moody’s $MCO
•2014 shares: 214.70M
•2024 shares: 182.70M
•% reduction: 15%
•EPS boost: 18%

🧬 Novo Nordisk $NVO
•2014 shares: 5.26B
•2024 shares: 4.46B
•% reduction: 15%
•EPS boost: 18%

💳Visa $V
•2014 shares: 2.52B
•2024 shares: 2.02B
•% reduction: 20%
•EPS boost: 25%

🖨️ Lam Research $LRCX
•2014 shares: 1.65B
•2024 shares: 1.31B
•% reduction: 20%
•EPS boost: 25%

💸Mastercard $MA
•2014 shares: 1.17B
•2024 shares: 0.93B
•% reduction: 21%
•EPS boost: 26%

🏢NVR Inc $NVR
•2014 shares: 4.44M
•2024 shares: 3.32M
•% reduction: 25%
•EPS boost: 33%

🏦 Fair Isaac $FICO
•2014 shares: 34.86M
•2024 shares: 25.08M
•% reduction: 28%
•EPS boost: 39%

🏡 Home Depot $HD
•2014 shares: 1.43B
•2024 shares: 0.99B
•% reduction: 31%
•EPS boost: 45%

💵 American Express $AXP
•2014 shares: 1.05B
•2024 shares: 0.71B
•% reduction: 32%
•EPS boost: 47%

💽 Applied Materials $AMAT
•2014 shares: 1.23B
•2024 shares: 0.83B
•% reduction: 32%
•EPS boost: 47%

📈MSCI Inc $MSCI
•2014 shares: 116.71M
•2024 shares: 78.53M
•% reduction: 33%
•EPS boost: 49%

✈️ Booking Holdings $BKNG
•2014 shares: 53.02M
•2024 shares: 34.06M
•% reduction: 36%
•EPS boost: 56%

📱Apple $AAPL
•2014 shares: 24.49B
•2024 shares: 15.41B
•% reduction: 37%
•EPS boost: 59%

🍕Domino’s Pizza $DPZ
•2014 shares: 56.93M
•2024 shares: 34.99M
•% reduction: 41%
•EPS boost: 69%

🚘 O’Reilly Automotive $ORLY
•2014 shares: 1.59B
•2024 shares: 0.87B
•% reduction: 45%
•EPS boost: 82%
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***EPS BOOST means how much earnings per share increased (assuming 0 growth) solely from share buybacks💰
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𝘼 𝙨𝙝𝙖𝙧𝙚 𝙗𝙪𝙮𝙗𝙖𝙘𝙠, 𝙖𝙡𝙨𝙤 𝙠𝙣𝙤𝙬𝙣 𝙖𝙨 𝙖 𝙨𝙩𝙤𝙘𝙠 𝙧𝙚𝙥𝙪𝙧𝙘𝙝𝙖𝙨𝙚, 𝙞𝙨 𝙬𝙝𝙚𝙣 𝙖 𝙘𝙤𝙢𝙥𝙖𝙣𝙮 𝙪𝙨𝙚𝙨 𝙞𝙩𝙨 𝙤𝙬𝙣 𝙛𝙪𝙣𝙙𝙨 𝙩𝙤 𝙗𝙪𝙮 𝙗𝙖𝙘𝙠 𝙞𝙩𝙨 𝙤𝙬𝙣 𝙨𝙝𝙖𝙧𝙚𝙨

𝘽𝙮 𝙙𝙤𝙞𝙣𝙜 𝙩𝙝𝙞𝙨, 𝙩𝙝𝙚 𝙘𝙤𝙢𝙥𝙖𝙣𝙮 𝙧𝙚𝙙𝙪𝙘𝙚𝙨 𝙩𝙝𝙚 𝙩𝙤𝙩𝙖𝙡 𝙣𝙪𝙢𝙗𝙚𝙧 𝙤𝙛 𝙤𝙪𝙩𝙨𝙩𝙖𝙣𝙙𝙞𝙣𝙜 𝙨𝙝𝙖𝙧𝙚𝙨 𝙖𝙫𝙖𝙞𝙡𝙖𝙗𝙡𝙚 𝙩𝙤 𝙩𝙝𝙚 𝙥𝙪𝙗𝙡𝙞𝙘, 𝙩𝙝𝙪𝙨 𝙞𝙣𝙘𝙧𝙚𝙖𝙨𝙞𝙣𝙜 𝙮𝙤𝙪𝙧 𝙥𝙚𝙧𝙘𝙚𝙣𝙩𝙖𝙜𝙚 𝙤𝙬𝙣𝙚𝙧𝙨𝙝𝙞𝙥 𝙤𝙛 𝙛𝙪𝙩𝙪𝙧𝙚 𝙚𝙖𝙧𝙣𝙞𝙣𝙜𝙨 𝙖𝙣𝙙 𝙛𝙧𝙚𝙚-𝙘𝙖𝙨𝙝-𝙛𝙡𝙤𝙬𝙨

𝙔𝙤𝙪 𝙘𝙖𝙣 𝙪𝙣𝙙𝙚𝙧𝙨𝙩𝙖𝙣𝙙 𝙬𝙝𝙮 𝙒𝙖𝙧𝙧𝙚𝙣 𝘽𝙪𝙛𝙛𝙚𝙩𝙩 𝙞𝙨 𝙖 𝙗𝙞𝙜 𝙛𝙖𝙣 𝙤𝙛 𝙨𝙝𝙖𝙧𝙚 𝙗𝙪𝙮𝙗𝙖𝙘𝙠𝙨.

𝙄𝙣 𝙝𝙞𝙨 2022 𝘼𝙣𝙣𝙪𝙖𝙡 𝙇𝙚𝙩𝙩𝙚𝙧, 𝘽𝙪𝙛𝙛𝙚𝙩𝙩 𝙬𝙧𝙤𝙩𝙚: “𝙏𝙝𝙚 𝙢𝙖𝙩𝙝 𝙞𝙨𝙣’𝙩 𝙘𝙤𝙢𝙥𝙡𝙞𝙘𝙖𝙩𝙚𝙙: 𝙒𝙝𝙚𝙣 𝙩𝙝𝙚 𝙨𝙝𝙖𝙧𝙚 𝙘𝙤𝙪𝙣𝙩 𝙜𝙤𝙚𝙨 𝙙𝙤𝙬𝙣, 𝙮𝙤𝙪𝙧 𝙞𝙣𝙩𝙚𝙧𝙚𝙨𝙩 𝙞𝙣 𝙤𝙪𝙧 𝙢𝙖𝙣𝙮 𝙗𝙪𝙨𝙞𝙣𝙚𝙨𝙨𝙚𝙨 𝙜𝙤𝙚𝙨 𝙪𝙥. 𝙀𝙫𝙚𝙧𝙮 𝙨𝙢𝙖𝙡𝙡 𝙗𝙞𝙩 𝙝𝙚𝙡𝙥𝙨 𝙞𝙛 𝙧𝙚𝙥𝙪𝙧𝙘𝙝𝙖𝙨𝙚𝙨 𝙖𝙧𝙚 𝙢𝙖𝙙𝙚 𝙖𝙩 𝙫𝙖𝙡𝙪𝙚-𝙖𝙘𝙘𝙧𝙚𝙩𝙞𝙫𝙚 𝙥𝙧𝙞𝙘𝙚𝙨”

#stocks #investing
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