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Wall St Engine
S&P 500 Closing Bell Heatmap (May 22, 2025)
$SPY +0.04% 🟩
$QQQ +0.19% 🟩
$DJI unch ⬜
$IWM +0.02% 🟩
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S&P 500 Closing Bell Heatmap (May 22, 2025)
$SPY +0.04% 🟩
$QQQ +0.19% 🟩
$DJI unch ⬜
$IWM +0.02% 🟩
S&P 500 Opening Bell Heatmap (May 22, 2025)
$SPY flat ⬜
$QQQ +0.19% 🟩
$DJI -0.19% 🟥
$IWM -0.42% 🟥 tweet
Wall St Engine
$WDAY | Workday Q1 Earnings Highlights
🔹 Revenue: $2.24B (Est. $2.218B) 🟢; +12.6% YoY
🔹 Adj EPS: $2.23 (Est. $2.01) 🟢; +28.2% YoY
FY Guidance (Reiterates):
🔹 Subscription Revenue: $8.8B; +14.0% YoY
🔹 Adj Operating Margin: 28.5%
Q2 Guidance:
🔹 Subscription Revenue: $2.16B; +13.5% YoY
🔹 Adjusted Operating Margin: 28.0%
Other Key Q1 Metrics:
🔹 Adj Operating Income: $677M (Est. $625.1M) 🟢
🔹 Subscription Revenue: $2.059B; +13.4% YoY
🔹 12-Month Subscription Revenue Backlog: $7.63B; +15.6% YoY
🔹 Total Subscription Revenue Backlog: $24.62B; +19.1% YoY
Cash Flow & Capital Return:
🔹 Operating Cash Flow: $457M (vs. $372M YoY)
🔹 Free Cash Flow: $421M (vs. $291M YoY)
🔹 Cash & Equivalents: $7.97B
🔹 Share Repurchase: 1.3M shares for $293M
🔹 New $1B Share Repurchase Program Announced
🔸 CEO Carl Eschenbach Commentary:
"Solid execution reflects the strength of our AI-driven platform as enterprises turn to Workday to manage people and finance with efficiency and agility."
🔸 CFO Zane Rowe Commentary:
"We’re reiterating our $8.8B subscription revenue target and raising our full-year margin outlook to 28.5%, driven by continued operational efficiency."
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$WDAY | Workday Q1 Earnings Highlights
🔹 Revenue: $2.24B (Est. $2.218B) 🟢; +12.6% YoY
🔹 Adj EPS: $2.23 (Est. $2.01) 🟢; +28.2% YoY
FY Guidance (Reiterates):
🔹 Subscription Revenue: $8.8B; +14.0% YoY
🔹 Adj Operating Margin: 28.5%
Q2 Guidance:
🔹 Subscription Revenue: $2.16B; +13.5% YoY
🔹 Adjusted Operating Margin: 28.0%
Other Key Q1 Metrics:
🔹 Adj Operating Income: $677M (Est. $625.1M) 🟢
🔹 Subscription Revenue: $2.059B; +13.4% YoY
🔹 12-Month Subscription Revenue Backlog: $7.63B; +15.6% YoY
🔹 Total Subscription Revenue Backlog: $24.62B; +19.1% YoY
Cash Flow & Capital Return:
🔹 Operating Cash Flow: $457M (vs. $372M YoY)
🔹 Free Cash Flow: $421M (vs. $291M YoY)
🔹 Cash & Equivalents: $7.97B
🔹 Share Repurchase: 1.3M shares for $293M
🔹 New $1B Share Repurchase Program Announced
🔸 CEO Carl Eschenbach Commentary:
"Solid execution reflects the strength of our AI-driven platform as enterprises turn to Workday to manage people and finance with efficiency and agility."
🔸 CFO Zane Rowe Commentary:
"We’re reiterating our $8.8B subscription revenue target and raising our full-year margin outlook to 28.5%, driven by continued operational efficiency."
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Wall St Engine
$INTU | Intuit Q3 Earnings Highlights
🔹 Revenue: $7.88B (Est. $7.56B) 🟢; +15% YoY
🔹 Adj EPS: $11.65 (Est. $10.96) 🟢; +18% YoY
🔹 Adj OI: $4.34B (Est. $4.10B) 🟢; +17% YoY
FY Guidance (Raised):
🔹 Revenue: $18.72B–$18.76B (Prev. $18.16B–$18.35B); +15% YoY
🔹 Adjusted EPS: $20.07–$20.12 (Prev. $19.16–$19.36) 🟢
🔹 Adjusted Operating Income: $7.54B–$7.56B (Est. $7.32B) 🟢
Q4 Guidance:
🔹 Revenue: $3.72B–$3.76B (Est. $3.53B) 🟢
🔹 Adjusted EPS: $2.63–$2.68 (Est. $2.59) 🟢
🔹 GAAP EPS: $0.84–$0.89
🔹 Online Ecosystem Revenue Growth: +21% YoY
Segment Performance:
🔹 Consumer Group Revenue: $4.0B; +11% YoY
🔹 Global Business Solutions Group Revenue: $2.8B; +19% YoY
🔹 Online Ecosystem Revenue: $2.1B; +20% YoY
🔹 Credit Karma Revenue: $579M; +31% YoY
🔹 ProTax Group Revenue: $278M; +9% YoY
Capital Allocation & Balance Sheet:
🔹 Share Repurchase: $754M in Q3
🔹 Dividend: $1.04/share (Payable July 18); +16% YoY
🔹 Cash & Investments: $6.2B
🔹 Total Debt: $6.4B
🔸 CEO Sasan Goodarzi Commentary:
“We're redefining what's possible with AI by becoming a one-stop shop of AI-agents and AI-enabled human experts, fueling success for both consumers and SMBs.”
🔸 CFO Sandeep Aujla Commentary:
“Our strength across the platform led us to raise full-year guidance across all company metrics for FY25.”
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$INTU | Intuit Q3 Earnings Highlights
🔹 Revenue: $7.88B (Est. $7.56B) 🟢; +15% YoY
🔹 Adj EPS: $11.65 (Est. $10.96) 🟢; +18% YoY
🔹 Adj OI: $4.34B (Est. $4.10B) 🟢; +17% YoY
FY Guidance (Raised):
🔹 Revenue: $18.72B–$18.76B (Prev. $18.16B–$18.35B); +15% YoY
🔹 Adjusted EPS: $20.07–$20.12 (Prev. $19.16–$19.36) 🟢
🔹 Adjusted Operating Income: $7.54B–$7.56B (Est. $7.32B) 🟢
Q4 Guidance:
🔹 Revenue: $3.72B–$3.76B (Est. $3.53B) 🟢
🔹 Adjusted EPS: $2.63–$2.68 (Est. $2.59) 🟢
🔹 GAAP EPS: $0.84–$0.89
🔹 Online Ecosystem Revenue Growth: +21% YoY
Segment Performance:
🔹 Consumer Group Revenue: $4.0B; +11% YoY
🔹 Global Business Solutions Group Revenue: $2.8B; +19% YoY
🔹 Online Ecosystem Revenue: $2.1B; +20% YoY
🔹 Credit Karma Revenue: $579M; +31% YoY
🔹 ProTax Group Revenue: $278M; +9% YoY
Capital Allocation & Balance Sheet:
🔹 Share Repurchase: $754M in Q3
🔹 Dividend: $1.04/share (Payable July 18); +16% YoY
🔹 Cash & Investments: $6.2B
🔹 Total Debt: $6.4B
🔸 CEO Sasan Goodarzi Commentary:
“We're redefining what's possible with AI by becoming a one-stop shop of AI-agents and AI-enabled human experts, fueling success for both consumers and SMBs.”
🔸 CFO Sandeep Aujla Commentary:
“Our strength across the platform led us to raise full-year guidance across all company metrics for FY25.”
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Offshore
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Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
Intuit $INTU Reports a Strong Q3 🎯
✅ Rev: $7.75B vs $7.56B (est) | +15% YoY
✅ EPS: $11.65 vs $10.91 (est) | +18% YoY
___
Revenue Breakdown 📊
Small Business: $2.8B, +19% YoY
Consumer Group: $4.0B, +11% YoY
Pro Tax: $278M, +9% YoY
Credit Karma: $579M, +31% YoY
Guidance ⬆️ https://t.co/TLN9ZUcAOZ
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Intuit $INTU Reports a Strong Q3 🎯
✅ Rev: $7.75B vs $7.56B (est) | +15% YoY
✅ EPS: $11.65 vs $10.91 (est) | +18% YoY
___
Revenue Breakdown 📊
Small Business: $2.8B, +19% YoY
Consumer Group: $4.0B, +11% YoY
Pro Tax: $278M, +9% YoY
Credit Karma: $579M, +31% YoY
Guidance ⬆️ https://t.co/TLN9ZUcAOZ
Intuit $INTU Q3 2025 Preview 🗓️
Rev est: $7.56B (+12.2% YoY)
EPS est: $10.91 (+10.4% YoY)
___
In Q3 2024 👇🏽
💵Rev: $6.74B
💰EPS: $9.88
Revenue Breakdown 📊
Small Business: $2.4B (+18% YoY)
Consumer Group: $3.7B (+9% YoY)
Pro Tax: $254M (+3% YoY)
Credit Karma: $443M (+8% YoY) tweet
Wall St Engine
$ROST | Ross Stores Q1 Earnings Highlights
🔹 Revenue: $4.98B (Est. $4.96B) 🟢; Flat YoY
🔹 Adj EPS: $1.47 (Est. $1.43) 🟢; +0.7% YoY
🔹 Net Income: $479.2M (Est. $470.1M) 🟢; -1.8% YoY
🔸 Wthdrew full-year sales and earnings guidance due to uncertainty from elevated China tariffs & macro volatility.
Q2 Guidance:
🔹 EPS: $1.40–$1.55 (Est. $1.64) 🔴
🔹 Comparable Sales: Flat to +3% (vs. +4% YoY in Q2 FY24)
🔸 Includes $0.11–$0.16 EPS impact from new China tariffs
Capital Returns:
🔹 Share Repurchase: 2.0M shares for $263M in Q1
🔹 FY25 Buyback Target: $1.05B (on track under $2.1B authorization)
CEO Jim Conroy Commentary:
🔸 “Monthly sales improved sharply through Q1, with earnings landing at the high end of expectations.”
🔸 “While we import little directly, over 50% of our merchandise originates from China. Elevated tariffs could pressure profitability.”
🔸 “Due to policy volatility, we are withdrawing full-year guidance and focusing on controllable execution amid macro uncertainty.”
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$ROST | Ross Stores Q1 Earnings Highlights
🔹 Revenue: $4.98B (Est. $4.96B) 🟢; Flat YoY
🔹 Adj EPS: $1.47 (Est. $1.43) 🟢; +0.7% YoY
🔹 Net Income: $479.2M (Est. $470.1M) 🟢; -1.8% YoY
🔸 Wthdrew full-year sales and earnings guidance due to uncertainty from elevated China tariffs & macro volatility.
Q2 Guidance:
🔹 EPS: $1.40–$1.55 (Est. $1.64) 🔴
🔹 Comparable Sales: Flat to +3% (vs. +4% YoY in Q2 FY24)
🔸 Includes $0.11–$0.16 EPS impact from new China tariffs
Capital Returns:
🔹 Share Repurchase: 2.0M shares for $263M in Q1
🔹 FY25 Buyback Target: $1.05B (on track under $2.1B authorization)
CEO Jim Conroy Commentary:
🔸 “Monthly sales improved sharply through Q1, with earnings landing at the high end of expectations.”
🔸 “While we import little directly, over 50% of our merchandise originates from China. Elevated tariffs could pressure profitability.”
🔸 “Due to policy volatility, we are withdrawing full-year guidance and focusing on controllable execution amid macro uncertainty.”
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Wall St Engine
$ADSK | Autodesk Q1 Earnings Highlights
🔹 Revenue: $1.63B (Est. $1.61B) 🟢
🔹 Adjusted EPS: $2.29 (Est. $2.15) 🟢
FY Guidance (Raised):
🔹 Revenue: $6.925B–$7.00B (Prev. $6.89B–$6.96B; Est. $6.926B) 🟢
🔹 Adj EPS: $9.50–$9.73 (Prev. $9.34–$9.67; Est. $9.52) 🟢
Q2 Guidance:
🔹 Revenue: $1.72B–$1.73B (Est. $1.70B) 🟢
🔹 Adjusted EPS: $2.44–$2.48 (Est. $2.34) 🟢
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$ADSK | Autodesk Q1 Earnings Highlights
🔹 Revenue: $1.63B (Est. $1.61B) 🟢
🔹 Adjusted EPS: $2.29 (Est. $2.15) 🟢
FY Guidance (Raised):
🔹 Revenue: $6.925B–$7.00B (Prev. $6.89B–$6.96B; Est. $6.926B) 🟢
🔹 Adj EPS: $9.50–$9.73 (Prev. $9.34–$9.67; Est. $9.52) 🟢
Q2 Guidance:
🔹 Revenue: $1.72B–$1.73B (Est. $1.70B) 🟢
🔹 Adjusted EPS: $2.44–$2.48 (Est. $2.34) 🟢
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Wall St Engine
$DECK | Deckers Outdoor Q4 Earnings Highlights
🔹 Revenue: $1.02B (Est. $1.006B) 🟢; +6.5% YoY
🔹 Adj EPS: $1.00 (Est. $0.59) 🟢
🔹 OI: $173.9M (Est. $107.1M) 🟢
🔹 Net Income: $151.4M (Est. $89.5M) 🟢
FY Outlook Withdrawn:
🔸 Deckers withdrew full-year FY26 guidance due to macroeconomic uncertainty and evolving global trade policies.
Q1 Guidance:
🔹 Revenue: $890M–$910M (Est. $925.3M) 🔴
🔹 EPS: $0.62–$0.67 (Est. $0.79) 🔴
Segment Revenue (Q4 YoY):
🔹 HOKA®: $586.1M; +10.0% YoY
🔹 UGG®: $374.3M; +3.6% YoY
🔹 Other Brands: $61.3M; -6.3% YoY
Channel Performance (Q4 YoY):
🔹 Wholesale: $611.6M; +12.3% YoY
🔹 DTC: $410.2M; -1.2% YoY
↳ DTC Comparable Sales: -1.6% YoY
Geographic Performance (Q4 YoY):
🔹 Domestic Sales: $647.7M; Flat YoY
🔹 International Sales: $374.1M; +19.9% YoY
💰 Capital Allocation:
🔹 Q4 Buyback: 1.78M shares for $266M
🔹 FY25 Buyback: 3.8M shares for $567M
🔹 FY26 Q1 Buyback (as of May 9): 765K shares for $84M
🔹 Total Buyback Authorization Increased to $2.5B
CEO Stefano Caroti:
🔸 “Despite global trade uncertainty, HOKA and UGG remain strong category leaders with long-term growth potential.”
CFO Steve Fasching:
🔸 “FY25 marks our 5th consecutive year of double-digit growth in revenue and EPS. With $1.9B in cash, strong cash flow, and a $2.5B buyback authorization, we’re well-positioned for strategic investment and shareholder return.”
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$DECK | Deckers Outdoor Q4 Earnings Highlights
🔹 Revenue: $1.02B (Est. $1.006B) 🟢; +6.5% YoY
🔹 Adj EPS: $1.00 (Est. $0.59) 🟢
🔹 OI: $173.9M (Est. $107.1M) 🟢
🔹 Net Income: $151.4M (Est. $89.5M) 🟢
FY Outlook Withdrawn:
🔸 Deckers withdrew full-year FY26 guidance due to macroeconomic uncertainty and evolving global trade policies.
Q1 Guidance:
🔹 Revenue: $890M–$910M (Est. $925.3M) 🔴
🔹 EPS: $0.62–$0.67 (Est. $0.79) 🔴
Segment Revenue (Q4 YoY):
🔹 HOKA®: $586.1M; +10.0% YoY
🔹 UGG®: $374.3M; +3.6% YoY
🔹 Other Brands: $61.3M; -6.3% YoY
Channel Performance (Q4 YoY):
🔹 Wholesale: $611.6M; +12.3% YoY
🔹 DTC: $410.2M; -1.2% YoY
↳ DTC Comparable Sales: -1.6% YoY
Geographic Performance (Q4 YoY):
🔹 Domestic Sales: $647.7M; Flat YoY
🔹 International Sales: $374.1M; +19.9% YoY
💰 Capital Allocation:
🔹 Q4 Buyback: 1.78M shares for $266M
🔹 FY25 Buyback: 3.8M shares for $567M
🔹 FY26 Q1 Buyback (as of May 9): 765K shares for $84M
🔹 Total Buyback Authorization Increased to $2.5B
CEO Stefano Caroti:
🔸 “Despite global trade uncertainty, HOKA and UGG remain strong category leaders with long-term growth potential.”
CFO Steve Fasching:
🔸 “FY25 marks our 5th consecutive year of double-digit growth in revenue and EPS. With $1.9B in cash, strong cash flow, and a $2.5B buyback authorization, we’re well-positioned for strategic investment and shareholder return.”
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Offshore
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Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
3 months ago I stated:
“Given its quality, moat, predictability, & growth rate, I am comfortable relying on 28x - 30x multiple, making $INTU a good purchase today at $560💵”
Since then, $INTU shares gained +29%✅
You can see more of the analysis attached below
👇🏽 https://t.co/oUMFU7TR6y
A quality valuation analysis on $INTU 🧘🏽♂️
•NTM P/E Ratio: 28.74x
•10-Year Mean: 33.55x
•NTM FCF Yield: 3.60%
•10-Year Mean: 3.68%
As you can see, $INTU appears to be trading somewhere below fair value & near fair value
Going forward, investors can receive ~16% MORE in earnings per share & ~2% LESS in FCF per share 🧠***
Before we get into valuation, let’s take a look at why $INTU is a good business
BALANCE SHEET✅
•Cash & Short-Term Inv: $3.36B
•Long-Term Debt: $5.63B
$INTU has a strong balance sheet, an A- S&P Credit Rating & 22x FFO Interest Coverage
RETURN ON CAPITAL✅
•2019: 43.9%
•2020: 25.2%
•2021: 19.7%
•2022: 10.7%
•2023: 13.1%
•2024: 15.4%
RETURN ON EQUITY✅
•2019: 47.4%
•2020: 41.2%
•2021: 27.5%
•2022: 15.7%
•2023: 14.1%
•2024: 16.6%
$INTU has strong return metrics, highlighting the financial efficiency of the business
REVENUES✅
•2014: $4.24B
•2024: $16.29B
•CAGR: 14.40%
FREE CASH FLOW✅
•2014: $1.34B
•2024: $4.69B
•CAGR: 13.34%
NORMALIZED EPS✅
•2014: $3.49
•2024: $16.94
•CAGR: 17.11%
PAID DIVIDENDS✅
•2014: $0.76
•2024: $3.60
•CAGR: 16.82%
SHARE BUYBACKS🆗
•2014 Shares Outstanding: 291.00M
•LTM Shares Outstanding: 284.00M
By reducing its shares outstanding ~2.4%, $INTU increased its EPS by ~2.5% (assuming 0 growth)
MARGINS✅
•LTM Gross Margins: 79.6%
•LTM Operating Margins: 23.1%
•LTM Net Income Margins: 17.6%
***NOW TO VALUATION 🧠
As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~16% MORE in EPS & ~2% LESS in FCF per share
Using Benjamin Graham’s 2G rule of thumb, $INTU has to grow earnings at a 14.37% CAGR over the next several years to justify its valuation
Today, analysts anticipate 2025 - 2027 EPS growth over the next few years to be slightly less than the (14.37%) required growth rate:
2025E: $19.32 (14.1% YoY) *FY Jul
2026E: $22.13 (14.5% YoY)
2027E: $25.09 (13.4% YoY)
$INTU has a great track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, but let’s assume $INTU ends 2027 with $25.09 in EPS & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples:
32x P/E: $802.88💵 … ~16.1% CAGR
31x P/E: $777.79💵 … ~14.6% CAGR
30x P/E: $752.70💵 … ~13.0% CAGR
29x P/E: $727.61💵 … ~11.5% CAGR
28x P/E: $702.52💵 … ~10.0% CAGR
While it’s certainly reasonable for $INTU to trade for 32x, I wouldn’t want to rely on that assumption as it doesn’t leave us with a substantial margin of safety
Yet, given its quality, moat, predictability, & growth rate, I am comfortable relying on 28x - 30x multiple, making $INTU a good purchase today at $560💵
I consider $INTU a strong purchase with a substantial margin of safety closer to $525💵, or ~27.60x NTM earnings (~7% below todays price)
Given today’s estimates, at $525💵 I can reasonably expect ~10% CAGR while assuming an attractive & conservative 26x multiple
___
𝐃𝐈𝐒𝐂𝐋𝐎𝐒𝐔𝐑𝐄‼️: 𝐓𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐬 𝐍𝐎𝐓 𝐈𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐀𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞. 𝐁𝐚𝐛𝐲𝐥𝐨𝐧 𝐂𝐚𝐩𝐢𝐭𝐚𝐥® 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐢𝐭𝐬 𝐫𝐞𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐞𝐬 𝐦𝐚𝐲 𝐡𝐚𝐯𝐞 𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐞𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐞𝐬 𝐝𝐢𝐬𝐜𝐮𝐬𝐬𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭.
𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐚𝐥 𝐩𝐮𝐫𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐞𝐬 𝐨𝐧𝐥𝐲 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐬𝐡𝐨𝐮𝐥𝐝 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐛𝐞 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐮𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐚𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞 𝐭𝐨 𝐦𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐩𝐞𝐜𝐢𝐟𝐢𝐜 𝐧𝐞𝐞𝐝𝐬 𝐨𝐟 𝐚𝐧𝐲 𝐢𝐧𝐝𝐢𝐯𝐢𝐝𝐮𝐚𝐥 𝐨𝐫 𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐮[...]
3 months ago I stated:
“Given its quality, moat, predictability, & growth rate, I am comfortable relying on 28x - 30x multiple, making $INTU a good purchase today at $560💵”
Since then, $INTU shares gained +29%✅
You can see more of the analysis attached below
👇🏽 https://t.co/oUMFU7TR6y
A quality valuation analysis on $INTU 🧘🏽♂️
•NTM P/E Ratio: 28.74x
•10-Year Mean: 33.55x
•NTM FCF Yield: 3.60%
•10-Year Mean: 3.68%
As you can see, $INTU appears to be trading somewhere below fair value & near fair value
Going forward, investors can receive ~16% MORE in earnings per share & ~2% LESS in FCF per share 🧠***
Before we get into valuation, let’s take a look at why $INTU is a good business
BALANCE SHEET✅
•Cash & Short-Term Inv: $3.36B
•Long-Term Debt: $5.63B
$INTU has a strong balance sheet, an A- S&P Credit Rating & 22x FFO Interest Coverage
RETURN ON CAPITAL✅
•2019: 43.9%
•2020: 25.2%
•2021: 19.7%
•2022: 10.7%
•2023: 13.1%
•2024: 15.4%
RETURN ON EQUITY✅
•2019: 47.4%
•2020: 41.2%
•2021: 27.5%
•2022: 15.7%
•2023: 14.1%
•2024: 16.6%
$INTU has strong return metrics, highlighting the financial efficiency of the business
REVENUES✅
•2014: $4.24B
•2024: $16.29B
•CAGR: 14.40%
FREE CASH FLOW✅
•2014: $1.34B
•2024: $4.69B
•CAGR: 13.34%
NORMALIZED EPS✅
•2014: $3.49
•2024: $16.94
•CAGR: 17.11%
PAID DIVIDENDS✅
•2014: $0.76
•2024: $3.60
•CAGR: 16.82%
SHARE BUYBACKS🆗
•2014 Shares Outstanding: 291.00M
•LTM Shares Outstanding: 284.00M
By reducing its shares outstanding ~2.4%, $INTU increased its EPS by ~2.5% (assuming 0 growth)
MARGINS✅
•LTM Gross Margins: 79.6%
•LTM Operating Margins: 23.1%
•LTM Net Income Margins: 17.6%
***NOW TO VALUATION 🧠
As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~16% MORE in EPS & ~2% LESS in FCF per share
Using Benjamin Graham’s 2G rule of thumb, $INTU has to grow earnings at a 14.37% CAGR over the next several years to justify its valuation
Today, analysts anticipate 2025 - 2027 EPS growth over the next few years to be slightly less than the (14.37%) required growth rate:
2025E: $19.32 (14.1% YoY) *FY Jul
2026E: $22.13 (14.5% YoY)
2027E: $25.09 (13.4% YoY)
$INTU has a great track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, but let’s assume $INTU ends 2027 with $25.09 in EPS & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples:
32x P/E: $802.88💵 … ~16.1% CAGR
31x P/E: $777.79💵 … ~14.6% CAGR
30x P/E: $752.70💵 … ~13.0% CAGR
29x P/E: $727.61💵 … ~11.5% CAGR
28x P/E: $702.52💵 … ~10.0% CAGR
While it’s certainly reasonable for $INTU to trade for 32x, I wouldn’t want to rely on that assumption as it doesn’t leave us with a substantial margin of safety
Yet, given its quality, moat, predictability, & growth rate, I am comfortable relying on 28x - 30x multiple, making $INTU a good purchase today at $560💵
I consider $INTU a strong purchase with a substantial margin of safety closer to $525💵, or ~27.60x NTM earnings (~7% below todays price)
Given today’s estimates, at $525💵 I can reasonably expect ~10% CAGR while assuming an attractive & conservative 26x multiple
___
𝐃𝐈𝐒𝐂𝐋𝐎𝐒𝐔𝐑𝐄‼️: 𝐓𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐬 𝐍𝐎𝐓 𝐈𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐀𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞. 𝐁𝐚𝐛𝐲𝐥𝐨𝐧 𝐂𝐚𝐩𝐢𝐭𝐚𝐥® 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐢𝐭𝐬 𝐫𝐞𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐞𝐬 𝐦𝐚𝐲 𝐡𝐚𝐯𝐞 𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐞𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐞𝐬 𝐝𝐢𝐬𝐜𝐮𝐬𝐬𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭.
𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐚𝐥 𝐩𝐮𝐫𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐞𝐬 𝐨𝐧𝐥𝐲 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐬𝐡𝐨𝐮𝐥𝐝 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐛𝐞 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐮𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐚𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞 𝐭𝐨 𝐦𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐩𝐞𝐜𝐢𝐟𝐢𝐜 𝐧𝐞𝐞𝐝𝐬 𝐨𝐟 𝐚𝐧𝐲 𝐢𝐧𝐝𝐢𝐯𝐢𝐝𝐮𝐚𝐥 𝐨𝐫 𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐮[...]
Offshore
Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital® 3 months ago I stated: “Given its quality, moat, predictability, & growth rate, I am comfortable relying on 28x - 30x multiple, making $INTU a good purchase today at $560💵” Since then, $INTU shares gained +29%✅ You can…
𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧. 𝐏𝐚𝐬𝐭 𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐞 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞 𝐨𝐟 𝐟𝐮𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐮𝐥𝐭𝐬.
𝐈𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐡𝐚𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐞𝐧 𝐨𝐛𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐫𝐨𝐦 𝐬𝐨𝐮𝐫𝐜𝐞𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐝 𝐭𝐨 𝐛𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐚𝐛𝐥𝐞, 𝐛𝐮𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐭𝐨 𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐩𝐥𝐞𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐞𝐬𝐬 𝐨𝐫 𝐚𝐜𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐚𝐜𝐲. - Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital® tweet
𝐈𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐡𝐚𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐞𝐧 𝐨𝐛𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐫𝐨𝐦 𝐬𝐨𝐮𝐫𝐜𝐞𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐝 𝐭𝐨 𝐛𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐚𝐛𝐥𝐞, 𝐛𝐮𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐭𝐨 𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐩𝐥𝐞𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐞𝐬𝐬 𝐨𝐫 𝐚𝐜𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐚𝐜𝐲. - Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital® tweet