โ Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capitalยฎ
Intuit $INTU Q3 2025 Preview ๐๏ธ
Rev est: $7.56B (+12.2% YoY)
EPS est: $10.91 (+10.4% YoY)
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In Q3 2024 ๐๐ฝ
๐ตRev: $6.74B
๐ฐEPS: $9.88
Revenue Breakdown ๐
Small Business: $2.4B (+18% YoY)
Consumer Group: $3.7B (+9% YoY)
Pro Tax: $254M (+3% YoY)
Credit Karma: $443M (+8% YoY)
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Intuit $INTU Q3 2025 Preview ๐๏ธ
Rev est: $7.56B (+12.2% YoY)
EPS est: $10.91 (+10.4% YoY)
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In Q3 2024 ๐๐ฝ
๐ตRev: $6.74B
๐ฐEPS: $9.88
Revenue Breakdown ๐
Small Business: $2.4B (+18% YoY)
Consumer Group: $3.7B (+9% YoY)
Pro Tax: $254M (+3% YoY)
Credit Karma: $443M (+8% YoY)
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Offshore
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โ App Economy Insights
RT @EconomyApp: $SNOW Snowflake Q1 FY26 (April quarter):
โข Customers +19% Y/Y to 11,578.
โข Customers > $1M +27% Y/Y to 606.
โข Net Retention 124% (-2pp Q/Q).
โข Revenue +26% Y/Y to $1,042M ($30M beat).
โข Non-GAAP EPS $0.26 ($0.05 beat).
โข FY26 Product revenue +25% Y/Y ($45M raise). https://t.co/xCq7pZv1Be
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RT @EconomyApp: $SNOW Snowflake Q1 FY26 (April quarter):
โข Customers +19% Y/Y to 11,578.
โข Customers > $1M +27% Y/Y to 606.
โข Net Retention 124% (-2pp Q/Q).
โข Revenue +26% Y/Y to $1,042M ($30M beat).
โข Non-GAAP EPS $0.26 ($0.05 beat).
โข FY26 Product revenue +25% Y/Y ($45M raise). https://t.co/xCq7pZv1Be
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Offshore
Photo
โ Wall St Engine
A Pershing Square exec is reportedly saying theyโve taken a position in Amazon $AMZN, noting that CEO Andy Jassy is doing an โincredible jobโ https://t.co/32WnK29DuD
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A Pershing Square exec is reportedly saying theyโve taken a position in Amazon $AMZN, noting that CEO Andy Jassy is doing an โincredible jobโ https://t.co/32WnK29DuD
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โ Wall St Engine
RT @wallstengine: $NKE IS BACK ON AMAZON - INFORMATION
Six years after cutting ties, Nike will start selling directly on Amazon again โ a big move as it looks to revive slowing sales. Amazon confirmed the deal today. Meanwhile, Nikeโs raising prices this week: $5โ$10 hikes on sneakers per CNBC.
tweet
RT @wallstengine: $NKE IS BACK ON AMAZON - INFORMATION
Six years after cutting ties, Nike will start selling directly on Amazon again โ a big move as it looks to revive slowing sales. Amazon confirmed the deal today. Meanwhile, Nikeโs raising prices this week: $5โ$10 hikes on sneakers per CNBC.
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Offshore
Photo
โ Quiver Quantitative
BREAKING: Senators Jon Ossoff and Mark Kelly are re-introducing a bill to ban congressional stock trading.
They are two of the only senators to put their portfolios into a blind trust. https://t.co/ktlYnW4wa6
tweet
BREAKING: Senators Jon Ossoff and Mark Kelly are re-introducing a bill to ban congressional stock trading.
They are two of the only senators to put their portfolios into a blind trust. https://t.co/ktlYnW4wa6
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Offshore
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โ Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capitalยฎ
Bill Ackman with a new position in $AMZN
$AMZN compelling valuation, even at ~$200, offers a strong margin of safety, making it a great investment opportunity ๐ฆ
A quality valuation analysis on $AMZN ๐ง๐ฝโโ๏ธ
โขNTM P/OCF Ratio: 13.55x
โข5-Year Mean: 22.10x
โขNTM FCF Yield: 2.60%
โข5-Year Mean: 2.69%
As you can see, $AMZN appears to be slightly undervalued using P/OCF
Going forward, investors can expect to receive ~63% MORE in operating cash flow & ~3% LESS in FCF per share๐ง ***
Before we get into valuation, letโs take a look at why $AMZN is a quality business
BALANCE SHEETโ
โขCash & Equivalents: $101.20B
โขLong-Term Debt: $59.72B
$AMZN has an excellent balance sheet, an AA S&P Credit Rating & 48x FFO Interest Coverage Ratio
RETURN ON CAPITAL๐ / โ
โข2020: 11.6%
โข2021: 8.9%
โข2022: 4.2%
โข2023: 10.1%
โข2024: 15.5%
RETURN ON EQUITYโ
โข2020: 27.4%
โข2021: 28.8%
โข2022: (1.9%)
โข2023: 17.5%
โข2024: 24.3%
$AMZN has solid return metrics, highlighting the financial efficiency of the business
REVENUESโ
โข2019: $280.52B
โข2024: $637.96B
โขCAGR: 17.85%
FREE CASH FLOWโ
โข2019: $21.65B
โข2024: $38.22B
โขCAGR: 12.03%
NORMALIZED EPSโ
โข2019: $1.15
โข2024: $5.53
โขCAGR: 36.90%
SHARE BUYBACKSโ
โข2019 Shares Outstanding: 10.08B
โขLTM Shares Outstanding: 10.72B
MARGINS๐โก๏ธโ
โขLTM Gross Margins: 48.9%
โขLTM Operating Margins: 10.8%
โขLTM Net Income Margins: 9.3%
*Important for $AMZN to continue expanding margins & increase profitability
***NOW TO VALUATION ๐ง
As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~63% MORE in OCF & ~3% LESS in FCF per share
Weโre using P/OCF instead of P/E. Historical data reveals a stronger correlation between AMZN's share price and Operating Cash Flow (OCF)
Today, analysts anticipate aggressive OCF (per share) growth between 2025 - 2027:
2025E: $13.65 (26% YoY) *FY Dec
2026E: $16.77 (23% YoY)
2027E: $19.75 (18% YoY)
$AMZN has a decent track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, so letโs assume $AMZN ends 2027 with $19.75 in OCF per share & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples (photos attached below also include these CAGR estimates):
16x P/OCF: $315.898๐ต โฆ ~21.7% CAGR
15x P/OCF: $296.23๐ต โฆ ~18.9% CAGR
14x P/OCF: $276.48๐ต โฆ ~15.9% CAGR
13x P/OCF: $256.73๐ต โฆ ~12.8% CAGR
12x P/OCF: $236.98๐ต โฆ ~9.6% CAGR
As you can see, $AMZN appears to have great double-digit CAGR potential if we assume ~13x P/OCF, a multiple less than what itโs trading for today (a multiple it hasnโt traded for since 2008/2009) & a multiple thatโs justified given its growth rate
Also by assuming a substantial amount of multiple compression, we leave ourselves with some margin of safety
Also check out $AMZN FCF growth estimates ๐
2025E: $50.92B (33% YoY)
2026E: $74.87B (47% YoY)
2027E: $106.84B (42% YoY)
AWS & Amazon Ads will continue to drive growth & profitability. In $AMZN FY 2024:
โ๏ธAWS revenue: $107.55B
๐Ads revenue: $56.21B
Combined, these segments generated $163.76B net revenue โฆ with ~37% Operating Income Margin
Today at $185๐ต $AMZN appears to be a strong consideration for investment
#stocks #investing
Data: TIKR
Graphs: FAST Graphs
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๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐โผ๏ธ: ๐๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐๐๐ ๐๐ง๐ฏ๐๐ฌ๐ญ๐ฆ๐๐ง๐ญ ๐๐๐ฏ๐ข๐๐. ๐๐๐๐ฒ๐ฅ๐จ๐ง ๐๐๐ฉ๐ข๐ญ๐๐ฅยฎ ๐๐ง๐ ๐ข๐ญ๐ฌ ๐ซ๐๐ฉ๐ซ๐๐ฌ๐๐ง๐ญ๐๐ญ๐ข๐ฏ๐๐ฌ ๐ฆ๐๐ฒ ๐ก๐๐ฏ๐ ๐ฉ๐จ๐ฌ๐ข๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐ฌ๐๐๐ฎ๐ซ๐ข๐ญ๐ข๐๐ฌ ๐๐ข๐ฌ๐๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ฌ๐๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐๐๐ญ.
๐๐ก๐ ๐ข๐ง๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐๐จ๐ง๐ญ๐๐ข๐ง๐๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐๐๐ญ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง๐ญ๐๐ง๐๐๐ ๐๐จ๐ซ ๐ข๐ง๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐๐ฅ ๐ฉ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ฉ๐จ๐ฌ๐๐ฌ ๐จ๐ง๐ฅ๐ฒ ๐๐ง๐ ๐ฌ๐ก๐จ๐ฎ๐ฅ๐ ๐ง๐จ๐ญ ๐๐ ๐๐จ๐ง๐ฌ๐ญ๐ซ๐ฎ๐๐ ๐๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง๐ฏ๐๐ฌ๐ญ๐ฆ๐๐ง๐ญ ๐๐๐ฏ๐ข๐๐ ๐ญ๐จ ๐ฆ๐๐๐ญ ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐ฌ๐ฉ๐๐๐ข๐๐ข๐ ๐ง๐๐๐๏ฟฝ[...]
Bill Ackman with a new position in $AMZN
$AMZN compelling valuation, even at ~$200, offers a strong margin of safety, making it a great investment opportunity ๐ฆ
A quality valuation analysis on $AMZN ๐ง๐ฝโโ๏ธ
โขNTM P/OCF Ratio: 13.55x
โข5-Year Mean: 22.10x
โขNTM FCF Yield: 2.60%
โข5-Year Mean: 2.69%
As you can see, $AMZN appears to be slightly undervalued using P/OCF
Going forward, investors can expect to receive ~63% MORE in operating cash flow & ~3% LESS in FCF per share๐ง ***
Before we get into valuation, letโs take a look at why $AMZN is a quality business
BALANCE SHEETโ
โขCash & Equivalents: $101.20B
โขLong-Term Debt: $59.72B
$AMZN has an excellent balance sheet, an AA S&P Credit Rating & 48x FFO Interest Coverage Ratio
RETURN ON CAPITAL๐ / โ
โข2020: 11.6%
โข2021: 8.9%
โข2022: 4.2%
โข2023: 10.1%
โข2024: 15.5%
RETURN ON EQUITYโ
โข2020: 27.4%
โข2021: 28.8%
โข2022: (1.9%)
โข2023: 17.5%
โข2024: 24.3%
$AMZN has solid return metrics, highlighting the financial efficiency of the business
REVENUESโ
โข2019: $280.52B
โข2024: $637.96B
โขCAGR: 17.85%
FREE CASH FLOWโ
โข2019: $21.65B
โข2024: $38.22B
โขCAGR: 12.03%
NORMALIZED EPSโ
โข2019: $1.15
โข2024: $5.53
โขCAGR: 36.90%
SHARE BUYBACKSโ
โข2019 Shares Outstanding: 10.08B
โขLTM Shares Outstanding: 10.72B
MARGINS๐โก๏ธโ
โขLTM Gross Margins: 48.9%
โขLTM Operating Margins: 10.8%
โขLTM Net Income Margins: 9.3%
*Important for $AMZN to continue expanding margins & increase profitability
***NOW TO VALUATION ๐ง
As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~63% MORE in OCF & ~3% LESS in FCF per share
Weโre using P/OCF instead of P/E. Historical data reveals a stronger correlation between AMZN's share price and Operating Cash Flow (OCF)
Today, analysts anticipate aggressive OCF (per share) growth between 2025 - 2027:
2025E: $13.65 (26% YoY) *FY Dec
2026E: $16.77 (23% YoY)
2027E: $19.75 (18% YoY)
$AMZN has a decent track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, so letโs assume $AMZN ends 2027 with $19.75 in OCF per share & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples (photos attached below also include these CAGR estimates):
16x P/OCF: $315.898๐ต โฆ ~21.7% CAGR
15x P/OCF: $296.23๐ต โฆ ~18.9% CAGR
14x P/OCF: $276.48๐ต โฆ ~15.9% CAGR
13x P/OCF: $256.73๐ต โฆ ~12.8% CAGR
12x P/OCF: $236.98๐ต โฆ ~9.6% CAGR
As you can see, $AMZN appears to have great double-digit CAGR potential if we assume ~13x P/OCF, a multiple less than what itโs trading for today (a multiple it hasnโt traded for since 2008/2009) & a multiple thatโs justified given its growth rate
Also by assuming a substantial amount of multiple compression, we leave ourselves with some margin of safety
Also check out $AMZN FCF growth estimates ๐
2025E: $50.92B (33% YoY)
2026E: $74.87B (47% YoY)
2027E: $106.84B (42% YoY)
AWS & Amazon Ads will continue to drive growth & profitability. In $AMZN FY 2024:
โ๏ธAWS revenue: $107.55B
๐Ads revenue: $56.21B
Combined, these segments generated $163.76B net revenue โฆ with ~37% Operating Income Margin
Today at $185๐ต $AMZN appears to be a strong consideration for investment
#stocks #investing
Data: TIKR
Graphs: FAST Graphs
___
๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐โผ๏ธ: ๐๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐๐๐ ๐๐ง๐ฏ๐๐ฌ๐ญ๐ฆ๐๐ง๐ญ ๐๐๐ฏ๐ข๐๐. ๐๐๐๐ฒ๐ฅ๐จ๐ง ๐๐๐ฉ๐ข๐ญ๐๐ฅยฎ ๐๐ง๐ ๐ข๐ญ๐ฌ ๐ซ๐๐ฉ๐ซ๐๐ฌ๐๐ง๐ญ๐๐ญ๐ข๐ฏ๐๐ฌ ๐ฆ๐๐ฒ ๐ก๐๐ฏ๐ ๐ฉ๐จ๐ฌ๐ข๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐ฌ๐๐๐ฎ๐ซ๐ข๐ญ๐ข๐๐ฌ ๐๐ข๐ฌ๐๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ฌ๐๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐๐๐ญ.
๐๐ก๐ ๐ข๐ง๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐๐จ๐ง๐ญ๐๐ข๐ง๐๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐๐๐ญ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง๐ญ๐๐ง๐๐๐ ๐๐จ๐ซ ๐ข๐ง๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐๐ฅ ๐ฉ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ฉ๐จ๐ฌ๐๐ฌ ๐จ๐ง๐ฅ๐ฒ ๐๐ง๐ ๐ฌ๐ก๐จ๐ฎ๐ฅ๐ ๐ง๐จ๐ญ ๐๐ ๐๐จ๐ง๐ฌ๐ญ๐ซ๐ฎ๐๐ ๐๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง๐ฏ๐๐ฌ๐ญ๐ฆ๐๐ง๐ญ ๐๐๐ฏ๐ข๐๐ ๐ญ๐จ ๐ฆ๐๐๐ญ ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐ฌ๐ฉ๐๐๐ข๐๐ข๐ ๐ง๐๐๐๏ฟฝ[...]