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$HD | Home Depot Q1 Earnings Highlights
🔹 Revenue: $39.86B (Est. $39.27B) 🟢; +9.4% YoY
🔹 Adj EPS: $3.56 (Est. $3.59) 🔴; -3.0% YoY
🔹 S.S.S: -0.3% (Est. -0.2%) 🔴
🔸 Not raising prices because of tariffs
FY26 Guide:
🔹 Comparable Sales Growth: About +1.0% (Est. +1.15%) 🔴
🔹 Revenue Growth: About +2.8%
🔹 Operating Margin: ~13.0%
🔹 Adjusted Operating Margin: ~13.4%
🔹 Gross Margin: ~33.4%
🔹 Tax Rate: ~24.5%
🔹 Net Interest Expense: ~$2.2B
🔹 Adjusted EPS: Expected to decline ~2% from FY2024 ($15.24)
🔹 GAAP EPS: Expected to decline ~3% from FY2024 ($14.91)
🔹 Capital Expenditures: ~2.5% of total sales
🔹 New Store Openings: ~13
Q1 Comparable Sales:
🔹 U.S. Comp Sales: +0.2% (Est. -0.16%) 🟢
🔹 Total Comp Sales: -0.3% (Est. -0.2%) 🔴
🔹 FX impact: ~70bps negative to total comp sales
Other Key Q1 Metrics:
🔹 Adj OI: $5.27B; UP +2.7% YoY
🔹 Adj OM: 13.2% (Est. 13.3%) 🔴
🔹 Gross Margin: 33.8%
🔹 Customer Transactions: 394.8M; UP +2.1% YoY
🔹 Average Ticket Size: $90.71 (Flat YoY)
Strategic and Operational Updates:
🔸 Continued customer engagement in smaller projects and seasonal spring events
🔸 SRS acquisition contributed to amortization expense and long-term growth opportunities
🔸 2,350 total retail stores across the U.S., Canada, and Mexico
🔸 Workforce strength: Over 470,000 associates
🔸 Inventory levels: $25.76B vs. $22.42B YoY
CEO Ted Decker's Commentary:
🔸 "Our first quarter results were in line with expectations. We saw solid customer engagement and feel confident about store readiness and product assortment for the spring season."
🔸 CFO: Will not raise prices because of tariffs; More than half of what the company sells comes from the U.S.; We’ve seen the great level of customer engagement that we saw in April continue into the first few weeks of May
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$HD | Home Depot Q1 Earnings Highlights
🔹 Revenue: $39.86B (Est. $39.27B) 🟢; +9.4% YoY
🔹 Adj EPS: $3.56 (Est. $3.59) 🔴; -3.0% YoY
🔹 S.S.S: -0.3% (Est. -0.2%) 🔴
🔸 Not raising prices because of tariffs
FY26 Guide:
🔹 Comparable Sales Growth: About +1.0% (Est. +1.15%) 🔴
🔹 Revenue Growth: About +2.8%
🔹 Operating Margin: ~13.0%
🔹 Adjusted Operating Margin: ~13.4%
🔹 Gross Margin: ~33.4%
🔹 Tax Rate: ~24.5%
🔹 Net Interest Expense: ~$2.2B
🔹 Adjusted EPS: Expected to decline ~2% from FY2024 ($15.24)
🔹 GAAP EPS: Expected to decline ~3% from FY2024 ($14.91)
🔹 Capital Expenditures: ~2.5% of total sales
🔹 New Store Openings: ~13
Q1 Comparable Sales:
🔹 U.S. Comp Sales: +0.2% (Est. -0.16%) 🟢
🔹 Total Comp Sales: -0.3% (Est. -0.2%) 🔴
🔹 FX impact: ~70bps negative to total comp sales
Other Key Q1 Metrics:
🔹 Adj OI: $5.27B; UP +2.7% YoY
🔹 Adj OM: 13.2% (Est. 13.3%) 🔴
🔹 Gross Margin: 33.8%
🔹 Customer Transactions: 394.8M; UP +2.1% YoY
🔹 Average Ticket Size: $90.71 (Flat YoY)
Strategic and Operational Updates:
🔸 Continued customer engagement in smaller projects and seasonal spring events
🔸 SRS acquisition contributed to amortization expense and long-term growth opportunities
🔸 2,350 total retail stores across the U.S., Canada, and Mexico
🔸 Workforce strength: Over 470,000 associates
🔸 Inventory levels: $25.76B vs. $22.42B YoY
CEO Ted Decker's Commentary:
🔸 "Our first quarter results were in line with expectations. We saw solid customer engagement and feel confident about store readiness and product assortment for the spring season."
🔸 CFO: Will not raise prices because of tariffs; More than half of what the company sells comes from the U.S.; We’ve seen the great level of customer engagement that we saw in April continue into the first few weeks of May
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MORGAN STANLEY ON $TSLA (OW; $410 PT): TESLA IS MOVING AWAY FROM 'CAR' & GOING ALL-IN ON AUTONOMY', 'AS CHINA MAY HAVE ALREADY WON THE EV BATTLE'
Analyst comments: "Stunning design at an affordable price. A year ago, when Xiaomi launched the SU7, many of our clients thought it looked like a Porsche, had better tech than a Tesla M3 and was priced like a used VW iD3. With the YU7 small SUV, they may have done it again. It looks like a Ferrari Purosangue or Aston Martin DBX but will be priced like a VW or low-spec Model Y.
• Explains why TSLA is moving away from 'car' and going all-in on autonomy. The YU7 is just the latest sign that Chinese tech firms are taking EV performance and cost to the next level. China may have already won the EV battle. Who can win the autonomy war?
• It's worth remembering... this is Xiaomi's 2nd car - ever. On Ford's 4Q24 conference call, I asked Ford CEO Jim Farley his thoughts on the Xiaomi SU7, a vehicle for which he himself expressed admiration, adding "But (at) the end of the day, it's management's responsibility to beat the SU7 straight up in a street fight." In our view, it may take many years before Ford could have a comparable product to the SU7 or YU7 on dealer lots, by which time one can only imagine the improvements made to Xiaomi's subsequent products and innovations.
• Growth. By 2027, Andy Meng estimates Xiaomi's EV business achieves revenues of 233bn Rmb ($32bn) which is roughly equal to what Tesla's auto unit was achieving in mid to late 2020.
• China EVs are coming to US shores - we think it's just a matter of time. In our view, you can't keep the best product away from the best consumer for very long. Add Xiaomi to the list of capable China auto/tech firms that may represent attractive collaboration candidates as Western legacy auto firms look for ways to achieve higher re-shoring scale, improved capital discipline and lower execution risks. We are not aware of any auto CEO who believes tariffs will be successful in keeping Chinese EV technology fully out of the US market. Many others we speak with are quite open to working with Chinese EV firms to 'on-ramp' critical technologies on-shore, subject to obvious data/compute sensitivities. The biggest question in our minds is: will Beijing allow it?
• Tesla implications. We find market expectations around Tesla's near-term automotive business remain too high and do not fully reflect the quantum of incremental capacity and competition coming out of China, ultimately having an impact in international markets. Understanding this will help make more sense out of Tesla's 'all-in' push into autonomy across a range of modalities, extending far beyond four wheels."
Analyst: Adam Jonas
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MORGAN STANLEY ON $TSLA (OW; $410 PT): TESLA IS MOVING AWAY FROM 'CAR' & GOING ALL-IN ON AUTONOMY', 'AS CHINA MAY HAVE ALREADY WON THE EV BATTLE'
Analyst comments: "Stunning design at an affordable price. A year ago, when Xiaomi launched the SU7, many of our clients thought it looked like a Porsche, had better tech than a Tesla M3 and was priced like a used VW iD3. With the YU7 small SUV, they may have done it again. It looks like a Ferrari Purosangue or Aston Martin DBX but will be priced like a VW or low-spec Model Y.
• Explains why TSLA is moving away from 'car' and going all-in on autonomy. The YU7 is just the latest sign that Chinese tech firms are taking EV performance and cost to the next level. China may have already won the EV battle. Who can win the autonomy war?
• It's worth remembering... this is Xiaomi's 2nd car - ever. On Ford's 4Q24 conference call, I asked Ford CEO Jim Farley his thoughts on the Xiaomi SU7, a vehicle for which he himself expressed admiration, adding "But (at) the end of the day, it's management's responsibility to beat the SU7 straight up in a street fight." In our view, it may take many years before Ford could have a comparable product to the SU7 or YU7 on dealer lots, by which time one can only imagine the improvements made to Xiaomi's subsequent products and innovations.
• Growth. By 2027, Andy Meng estimates Xiaomi's EV business achieves revenues of 233bn Rmb ($32bn) which is roughly equal to what Tesla's auto unit was achieving in mid to late 2020.
• China EVs are coming to US shores - we think it's just a matter of time. In our view, you can't keep the best product away from the best consumer for very long. Add Xiaomi to the list of capable China auto/tech firms that may represent attractive collaboration candidates as Western legacy auto firms look for ways to achieve higher re-shoring scale, improved capital discipline and lower execution risks. We are not aware of any auto CEO who believes tariffs will be successful in keeping Chinese EV technology fully out of the US market. Many others we speak with are quite open to working with Chinese EV firms to 'on-ramp' critical technologies on-shore, subject to obvious data/compute sensitivities. The biggest question in our minds is: will Beijing allow it?
• Tesla implications. We find market expectations around Tesla's near-term automotive business remain too high and do not fully reflect the quantum of incremental capacity and competition coming out of China, ultimately having an impact in international markets. Understanding this will help make more sense out of Tesla's 'all-in' push into autonomy across a range of modalities, extending far beyond four wheels."
Analyst: Adam Jonas
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CHINA GOLD IMPORTS JUMP TO 11-MONTH HIGH
Despite record prices, China brought in 127.5 tons of gold in April — up 73% from March — as investors rushed to hedge rising geopolitical risks. PBOC eased import quotas to meet the spike in demand. Gold briefly hit $3,500/oz last month. https://t.co/sZOxuF0oSf
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CHINA GOLD IMPORTS JUMP TO 11-MONTH HIGH
Despite record prices, China brought in 127.5 tons of gold in April — up 73% from March — as investors rushed to hedge rising geopolitical risks. PBOC eased import quotas to meet the spike in demand. Gold briefly hit $3,500/oz last month. https://t.co/sZOxuF0oSf
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PALANTIR PARTNERS WITH DIVERGENT TECH TO POWER ON-DEMAND MANUFACTURING
$PLTR teams up with Divergent Technologies to integrate advanced manufacturing into its Warp Speed and Foundry platforms. The move gives defense and commercial clients access to Divergent’s AI-driven DAPS system, enabling rapid production of critical parts to plug supply chain gaps.
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PALANTIR PARTNERS WITH DIVERGENT TECH TO POWER ON-DEMAND MANUFACTURING
$PLTR teams up with Divergent Technologies to integrate advanced manufacturing into its Warp Speed and Foundry platforms. The move gives defense and commercial clients access to Divergent’s AI-driven DAPS system, enabling rapid production of critical parts to plug supply chain gaps.
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Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
Novo Nordisk $NVO credit rating upgraded to AA from AA- by S&P Global $SPGI ✅
Don’t miss the fourth photo❗️
I believe few investors truly grasp the potential of GLP-1s:
•Reduces chronic disease risks
•Addresses obesity
•Reduces cardiovascular risks
•Delays neurodegenerative disorders (e.g. Alzheimer’s)
•Lowers cancer risk (e.g. colon cancer)
•Enhances metabolic health
•Decreases reliance on other meds
•Minimizes invasive treatments
•Combats addiction
•Could slow aging
•Lowers healthcare costs
$NVO trades for ~16x NTM earnings, near its lowest valuation in the last decade
$NVO has averaged a 59% ROIC over the past 20 years
$NVO has $6.02B in cash & $13.96B in long-term debt
With all this being said, and down -55% from all time highs, today $NVO is a strong consideration for investment at $67💵
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Novo Nordisk $NVO credit rating upgraded to AA from AA- by S&P Global $SPGI ✅
Don’t miss the fourth photo❗️
I believe few investors truly grasp the potential of GLP-1s:
•Reduces chronic disease risks
•Addresses obesity
•Reduces cardiovascular risks
•Delays neurodegenerative disorders (e.g. Alzheimer’s)
•Lowers cancer risk (e.g. colon cancer)
•Enhances metabolic health
•Decreases reliance on other meds
•Minimizes invasive treatments
•Combats addiction
•Could slow aging
•Lowers healthcare costs
$NVO trades for ~16x NTM earnings, near its lowest valuation in the last decade
$NVO has averaged a 59% ROIC over the past 20 years
$NVO has $6.02B in cash & $13.96B in long-term debt
With all this being said, and down -55% from all time highs, today $NVO is a strong consideration for investment at $67💵
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Wall St Engine
Bernstein on $CORZ (Outperform; $17 PT):
Analyst comments: 'Will the stock now coattail CoreWeave's rise? CoreWeave (not covered) is up 115% since its IPO. Meanwhile, CoreWeave’s largest data center partner (~37% of contracted power), CORZ is up ~70% in last 30 days, while still being down 25% YTD reflecting mixed investor confidence in AI capex. With CoreWeave’s order book reflecting $15.9Bn new orders from OpenAI and strong delivery pipeline by CORZ (250MW in 2025) including progress on its 260MW Denton site for OpenAI, investor confidence in CORZ should recover quickly, in our view. CORZ is executing one of the largest Blackwell GB200 clusters in the U.S. We believe, CORZ is still valued as a Bitcoin miner and not as cutting edge data center platform with a capital light model (CORZ Outperform - PT$17)."
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Bernstein on $CORZ (Outperform; $17 PT):
Analyst comments: 'Will the stock now coattail CoreWeave's rise? CoreWeave (not covered) is up 115% since its IPO. Meanwhile, CoreWeave’s largest data center partner (~37% of contracted power), CORZ is up ~70% in last 30 days, while still being down 25% YTD reflecting mixed investor confidence in AI capex. With CoreWeave’s order book reflecting $15.9Bn new orders from OpenAI and strong delivery pipeline by CORZ (250MW in 2025) including progress on its 260MW Denton site for OpenAI, investor confidence in CORZ should recover quickly, in our view. CORZ is executing one of the largest Blackwell GB200 clusters in the U.S. We believe, CORZ is still valued as a Bitcoin miner and not as cutting edge data center platform with a capital light model (CORZ Outperform - PT$17)."
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