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The All-In Podcast
Friedberg's two budget rules to save America from a debt crisis 🇺🇸 💰
1) All current programs revert to pre-COVID spending levels 📉
2) Indefinite pause on all new spending 🛑
@friedberg explains:
"We are in a fiscal crisis and we're not willing to admit it."
"If you are an American, you should feel shame that your elected officials are proposing that we vaporize this much money, that we put ourselves this much further in debt."
"We are now burning an additional $2.5T a year, adding to our debt load."
"And I've said this from day one, that DOGE can only do so much, and at the end of the day, Congress needs to take action."
"And this bill from Congress doesn't take much action."
"If you look across the board, all of these programs are still being proposed to be run at a cost that is well in excess of their pre-COVID levels."
"And so I would set two guiding principles if I was the benevolent dictator of the United States of America."
"My guiding principle number one, would be that any program that we intend to continue to persist have its budget level cut to pre-COVID 2019 levels."
"The second would be that we add no new programs in the moment."
"There's a whole bunch of new sh*t thrown into this bill."
"I'm a big believer in cutting taxes, but at the end of the day, you can't just say, 'Hey, let's cut taxes and spend more than we're making.' It doesn't make sense."
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Friedberg's two budget rules to save America from a debt crisis 🇺🇸 💰
1) All current programs revert to pre-COVID spending levels 📉
2) Indefinite pause on all new spending 🛑
@friedberg explains:
"We are in a fiscal crisis and we're not willing to admit it."
"If you are an American, you should feel shame that your elected officials are proposing that we vaporize this much money, that we put ourselves this much further in debt."
"We are now burning an additional $2.5T a year, adding to our debt load."
"And I've said this from day one, that DOGE can only do so much, and at the end of the day, Congress needs to take action."
"And this bill from Congress doesn't take much action."
"If you look across the board, all of these programs are still being proposed to be run at a cost that is well in excess of their pre-COVID levels."
"And so I would set two guiding principles if I was the benevolent dictator of the United States of America."
"My guiding principle number one, would be that any program that we intend to continue to persist have its budget level cut to pre-COVID 2019 levels."
"The second would be that we add no new programs in the moment."
"There's a whole bunch of new sh*t thrown into this bill."
"I'm a big believer in cutting taxes, but at the end of the day, you can't just say, 'Hey, let's cut taxes and spend more than we're making.' It doesn't make sense."
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Capital Employed
A fresh batch of Q1 2025 fund letters have just been added.
100 letters in total. A treasure trove for ideas and insights >
https://t.co/lJZP1lULJ5
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A fresh batch of Q1 2025 fund letters have just been added.
100 letters in total. A treasure trove for ideas and insights >
https://t.co/lJZP1lULJ5
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Wall St Engine
Today's Key Events (All EST) — 05/20/2025
(All Day): G7 Finance Summit
08:55: US Redbook YoY
09:00: Fed's Bostic
09:00: Fed's Barkin
09:30: Fed's Collins
13:00: Fed's Musalem
17:00: Fed's Kugler
19:00: Fed's Hammack & Daly
Before Open 👇
05:00: $PONY AI
05:00: Bilibili $BILI
05:00: Vipshop Holdings $VIPS
05:25: Elbit Systems $ESLT
06:00: Home Depot $HD
06:00: Amer Sports $AS
06:15: Canaan $CAN
06:30: Eagle Materials $EXP
07:00: Viking Holdings $VIK
07:00: Arbe Robotics $ARBE
07:00: Freightos $CRGO
07:30: $GDS
Nebius Group $NBIS
After Hours 👇
04:05: Palo Alto Networks $PANW
04:05: Keysight Tech $KEYS
04:05: Ontrak $OTRK
04:10: Skyline $SKY
04:15: Modine $MOD
04:15: Auna S.A. $AUNA
04:30: Toll Brothers, Inc. $TOL
04:30: Ellington Residential Mortgage REIT $EARN
04:30: ViaSat $VSAT
04:35: XP Inc. $XP
After Close: Tuya $TUYA
06:00: ZTO Express $ZTO
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Today's Key Events (All EST) — 05/20/2025
(All Day): G7 Finance Summit
08:55: US Redbook YoY
09:00: Fed's Bostic
09:00: Fed's Barkin
09:30: Fed's Collins
13:00: Fed's Musalem
17:00: Fed's Kugler
19:00: Fed's Hammack & Daly
Before Open 👇
05:00: $PONY AI
05:00: Bilibili $BILI
05:00: Vipshop Holdings $VIPS
05:25: Elbit Systems $ESLT
06:00: Home Depot $HD
06:00: Amer Sports $AS
06:15: Canaan $CAN
06:30: Eagle Materials $EXP
07:00: Viking Holdings $VIK
07:00: Arbe Robotics $ARBE
07:00: Freightos $CRGO
07:30: $GDS
Nebius Group $NBIS
After Hours 👇
04:05: Palo Alto Networks $PANW
04:05: Keysight Tech $KEYS
04:05: Ontrak $OTRK
04:10: Skyline $SKY
04:15: Modine $MOD
04:15: Auna S.A. $AUNA
04:30: Toll Brothers, Inc. $TOL
04:30: Ellington Residential Mortgage REIT $EARN
04:30: ViaSat $VSAT
04:35: XP Inc. $XP
After Close: Tuya $TUYA
06:00: ZTO Express $ZTO
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Wall St Engine
INDONESIA RIDE-HAILING FACES MAJOR STRIKE TUESDAY
Over 25,000 drivers across Indonesia plan to log off platforms like $GRAB, $GOTO, InDrive and Shopee in a mass protest over pay and platform commissions. Garda, one of the country’s largest driver groups, is leading the strike, demanding a 10% cap on app fees and stricter rule enforcement. The disruption hits as Grab pushes ahead with a $7B takeover of GoTo—both heavily reliant on Indonesia, the region’s biggest ride-hailing market. (Bloomberg)
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INDONESIA RIDE-HAILING FACES MAJOR STRIKE TUESDAY
Over 25,000 drivers across Indonesia plan to log off platforms like $GRAB, $GOTO, InDrive and Shopee in a mass protest over pay and platform commissions. Garda, one of the country’s largest driver groups, is leading the strike, demanding a 10% cap on app fees and stricter rule enforcement. The disruption hits as Grab pushes ahead with a $7B takeover of GoTo—both heavily reliant on Indonesia, the region’s biggest ride-hailing market. (Bloomberg)
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Wall St Engine
California regulators just cleared Waymo to expand its autonomous ride-hailing service deeper into the Bay Area, including San Jose. $GOOGL now has the green light to operate its fully driverless Waymo One fleet across more of Silicon Valley. The company already delivers over 250K paid robotaxi rides a week.
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California regulators just cleared Waymo to expand its autonomous ride-hailing service deeper into the Bay Area, including San Jose. $GOOGL now has the green light to operate its fully driverless Waymo One fleet across more of Silicon Valley. The company already delivers over 250K paid robotaxi rides a week.
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Wall St Engine
$PFE STRIKES $6B+ CANCER DRUG DEAL WITH CHINA'S 3SBIO
Pfizer is licensing an experimental cancer therapy from China’s 3SBio for $1.25B upfront and up to $4.8B in milestone payments, plus a $100M equity stake. The drug, SSGJ-707, is being tested for lung, colorectal, and gynecological cancers. Pfizer gets global rights outside China and may expand inside later. Manufacturing will happen in North Carolina and Kansas.
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$PFE STRIKES $6B+ CANCER DRUG DEAL WITH CHINA'S 3SBIO
Pfizer is licensing an experimental cancer therapy from China’s 3SBio for $1.25B upfront and up to $4.8B in milestone payments, plus a $100M equity stake. The drug, SSGJ-707, is being tested for lung, colorectal, and gynecological cancers. Pfizer gets global rights outside China and may expand inside later. Manufacturing will happen in North Carolina and Kansas.
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Wall St Engine
CATL RAISES $4.6B IN YEAR’S BIGGEST LISTING
Chinese battery giant CATL surged in its Hong Kong debut, with shares climbing as much as 18% after pricing at a 7% discount to its Shenzhen listing. The $4.6B raise marks the biggest equity offering globally this year. CATL plans to use 90% of the proceeds to fund its Hungary factory as it continues global expansion. The stock pop comes as U.S.-China trade tensions ease, lifting sentiment for Chinese listings. (WSJ)
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CATL RAISES $4.6B IN YEAR’S BIGGEST LISTING
Chinese battery giant CATL surged in its Hong Kong debut, with shares climbing as much as 18% after pricing at a 7% discount to its Shenzhen listing. The $4.6B raise marks the biggest equity offering globally this year. CATL plans to use 90% of the proceeds to fund its Hungary factory as it continues global expansion. The stock pop comes as U.S.-China trade tensions ease, lifting sentiment for Chinese listings. (WSJ)
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Wall St Engine
Morgan Stanley Downgrades $ASAN to Underweight from Equalweight, Sets PT at $14.00
Analyst comments: "Asana shares are up over 40% since the day after Q4 earnings compared to the SMID Software group, which is up approximately 6%. Co-founder Dustin Moskovitz's insider buying—over $50 million in shares post-Q4 earnings—has likely driven this outperformance. However, our channel checks and the broader macro environment do not support a case for improving fundamentals.
1. Partner checks indicate intensifying competition, with Asana losing share to Monday .com and other private companies in Collaborative Work Management.
2. Although in-quarter net revenue retention (NRR) improved in Q4, overall NRR for total, >\$5K, and >\$100K cohorts remains at 96–97%, continuing a three-year decline and signaling ongoing customer downsizing risk.
3. Continued layoffs in the technology vertical through April and May challenge stability in this segment, which accounts for around 30% of Asana's revenue and has already been cited as a growth headwind.
4. Uncertainty around leadership amid the ongoing CEO search further adds execution and strategic risks."
Analyst: Josh Baer
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Morgan Stanley Downgrades $ASAN to Underweight from Equalweight, Sets PT at $14.00
Analyst comments: "Asana shares are up over 40% since the day after Q4 earnings compared to the SMID Software group, which is up approximately 6%. Co-founder Dustin Moskovitz's insider buying—over $50 million in shares post-Q4 earnings—has likely driven this outperformance. However, our channel checks and the broader macro environment do not support a case for improving fundamentals.
1. Partner checks indicate intensifying competition, with Asana losing share to Monday .com and other private companies in Collaborative Work Management.
2. Although in-quarter net revenue retention (NRR) improved in Q4, overall NRR for total, >\$5K, and >\$100K cohorts remains at 96–97%, continuing a three-year decline and signaling ongoing customer downsizing risk.
3. Continued layoffs in the technology vertical through April and May challenge stability in this segment, which accounts for around 30% of Asana's revenue and has already been cited as a growth headwind.
4. Uncertainty around leadership amid the ongoing CEO search further adds execution and strategic risks."
Analyst: Josh Baer
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Wall St Engine
RETAIL DIP BUYING HITS RECORD
Retail traders bought a net $4.1B in US stocks by 12:30pm Monday — the biggest half-day buying spree ever, per JPMorgan. https://t.co/sOQj7pq6JQ
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RETAIL DIP BUYING HITS RECORD
Retail traders bought a net $4.1B in US stocks by 12:30pm Monday — the biggest half-day buying spree ever, per JPMorgan. https://t.co/sOQj7pq6JQ
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Wall St Engine
JPMORGAN RAISES $UBER PT TO $105 FROM $92 - OW
Analyst comments: "We spent time last week in Boston at the JPM TMC Conference with Uber CEO Dara Khosrowshahi, CFO Prashanth Mahendra-Rajah, and the Uber investor relations team. Management’s tone was upbeat, with Uber emphasizing that it is on track or ahead of its three-year targets through 2026, which include mid-to-high teens gross bookings growth, mid-30% to 40% EBITDA growth, and 90% EBITDA-to-free cash flow conversion. Uber continues to drive strong, profitable growth in its core business while investing in long-term growth opportunities.
Key topics of discussion included autonomous vehicle (AV) progress and early economics, mobility pricing trends and insurance, and delivery margins. Importantly, we expect the AV narrative for Uber to continue improving as the launch with Waymo in Austin demonstrates higher utilization and broader scope, with similar early progress anticipated soon in Atlanta.
While significant progress is still needed, we believe Uber is becoming an increasingly valuable partner to AV technology providers—as both a demand and utilization platform and as a fleet operator—as highlighted by its recent AI alliances. We reiterate our Overweight rating and raise our December 2025 price target to $105 (from $92 previously), based on 21.0x 2026E free cash flow of approximately $9.8 billion."
Analyst: Doug Anmuth
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JPMORGAN RAISES $UBER PT TO $105 FROM $92 - OW
Analyst comments: "We spent time last week in Boston at the JPM TMC Conference with Uber CEO Dara Khosrowshahi, CFO Prashanth Mahendra-Rajah, and the Uber investor relations team. Management’s tone was upbeat, with Uber emphasizing that it is on track or ahead of its three-year targets through 2026, which include mid-to-high teens gross bookings growth, mid-30% to 40% EBITDA growth, and 90% EBITDA-to-free cash flow conversion. Uber continues to drive strong, profitable growth in its core business while investing in long-term growth opportunities.
Key topics of discussion included autonomous vehicle (AV) progress and early economics, mobility pricing trends and insurance, and delivery margins. Importantly, we expect the AV narrative for Uber to continue improving as the launch with Waymo in Austin demonstrates higher utilization and broader scope, with similar early progress anticipated soon in Atlanta.
While significant progress is still needed, we believe Uber is becoming an increasingly valuable partner to AV technology providers—as both a demand and utilization platform and as a fleet operator—as highlighted by its recent AI alliances. We reiterate our Overweight rating and raise our December 2025 price target to $105 (from $92 previously), based on 21.0x 2026E free cash flow of approximately $9.8 billion."
Analyst: Doug Anmuth
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Wall St Engine
JPMorgan Reiterates Overweight Rating on $GEV, PT $460
Analyst comments: "With this note, we dive deep into GE Vernova’s Electrification segment, which we believe is likely the most underappreciated area of the GEV story. We provide an overview of each business line, including the important high-voltage direct current (HVDC) and transformer businesses. We also analyze the backlog conversion within the Electrification business, where we see potential upside to FY25 guidance and near-term consensus expectations.
Grid Solutions Positioned as the Fastest Growing Business within the GEV Portfolio. The grid solutions portfolio—including transformers, HVDC solutions, switchgears, circuit breakers, and other grid equipment—represents approximately 90% of the segment’s equipment backlog and has driven the bulk of the company’s backlog growth over the past two years (>3x year-end 2022 levels). With more excess capacity than competitors and historical underinvestment in the U.S. end-market, GE Vernova is uniquely positioned to gain market share and benefit from margin expansion in a rising price environment. While the high-margin profile of this backlog has yet to fully appear in financials, the company’s long-term guidance and backlog disclosures support optimism.
Greatest Beneficiary of GEV Being a Standalone Company. The Electrification segment has benefited most from GEV’s separation, with management noting that many potential customers still do not fully understand the segment's offerings—highlighting significant wallet share opportunities. Additionally, rising demand for gas equipment has enabled cross-selling of grid hardware and software solutions.
Large HVDC Pipeline Provides Visibility into Growth. HVDC offerings represent an estimated $7–8 billion of GEV’s backlog and show strong demand, especially in Europe. We expect HVDC to be a key long-term growth driver, though successful execution will be critical given the complexity of these projects and GEV’s relatively limited experience compared to peers.
Software Story Remains Intact but Requires Execution. At roughly 3% of GEV revenues, the Electrification software business has been less of a focus post-spin. However, if the company can gain traction among utility customers and meet its “rule of 40” targets, this could become a meaningful contributor to growth and margin expansion.
Potential Upside to FY25 Electrification. Our analysis, assuming an Electrification equipment backlog conversion rate of ~30% in FY25, indicates upside to both management’s guidance and consensus expectations. We view Electrification as the most likely segment to outperform FY25 targets, though we remain near the high end of guidance as we await more details on potential tariff impacts."
Analyst: Mark Strouse
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JPMorgan Reiterates Overweight Rating on $GEV, PT $460
Analyst comments: "With this note, we dive deep into GE Vernova’s Electrification segment, which we believe is likely the most underappreciated area of the GEV story. We provide an overview of each business line, including the important high-voltage direct current (HVDC) and transformer businesses. We also analyze the backlog conversion within the Electrification business, where we see potential upside to FY25 guidance and near-term consensus expectations.
Grid Solutions Positioned as the Fastest Growing Business within the GEV Portfolio. The grid solutions portfolio—including transformers, HVDC solutions, switchgears, circuit breakers, and other grid equipment—represents approximately 90% of the segment’s equipment backlog and has driven the bulk of the company’s backlog growth over the past two years (>3x year-end 2022 levels). With more excess capacity than competitors and historical underinvestment in the U.S. end-market, GE Vernova is uniquely positioned to gain market share and benefit from margin expansion in a rising price environment. While the high-margin profile of this backlog has yet to fully appear in financials, the company’s long-term guidance and backlog disclosures support optimism.
Greatest Beneficiary of GEV Being a Standalone Company. The Electrification segment has benefited most from GEV’s separation, with management noting that many potential customers still do not fully understand the segment's offerings—highlighting significant wallet share opportunities. Additionally, rising demand for gas equipment has enabled cross-selling of grid hardware and software solutions.
Large HVDC Pipeline Provides Visibility into Growth. HVDC offerings represent an estimated $7–8 billion of GEV’s backlog and show strong demand, especially in Europe. We expect HVDC to be a key long-term growth driver, though successful execution will be critical given the complexity of these projects and GEV’s relatively limited experience compared to peers.
Software Story Remains Intact but Requires Execution. At roughly 3% of GEV revenues, the Electrification software business has been less of a focus post-spin. However, if the company can gain traction among utility customers and meet its “rule of 40” targets, this could become a meaningful contributor to growth and margin expansion.
Potential Upside to FY25 Electrification. Our analysis, assuming an Electrification equipment backlog conversion rate of ~30% in FY25, indicates upside to both management’s guidance and consensus expectations. We view Electrification as the most likely segment to outperform FY25 targets, though we remain near the high end of guidance as we await more details on potential tariff impacts."
Analyst: Mark Strouse
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