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The All-In Podcast
Friedberg's two budget rules to save America from a debt crisis 🇺🇸 💰
1) All current programs revert to pre-COVID spending levels 📉
2) Indefinite pause on all new spending 🛑
@friedberg explains:
"We are in a fiscal crisis and we're not willing to admit it."
"If you are an American, you should feel shame that your elected officials are proposing that we vaporize this much money, that we put ourselves this much further in debt."
"We are now burning an additional $2.5T a year, adding to our debt load."
"And I've said this from day one, that DOGE can only do so much, and at the end of the day, Congress needs to take action."
"And this bill from Congress doesn't take much action."
"If you look across the board, all of these programs are still being proposed to be run at a cost that is well in excess of their pre-COVID levels."
"And so I would set two guiding principles if I was the benevolent dictator of the United States of America."
"My guiding principle number one, would be that any program that we intend to continue to persist have its budget level cut to pre-COVID 2019 levels."
"The second would be that we add no new programs in the moment."
"There's a whole bunch of new sh*t thrown into this bill."
"I'm a big believer in cutting taxes, but at the end of the day, you can't just say, 'Hey, let's cut taxes and spend more than we're making.' It doesn't make sense."
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Friedberg's two budget rules to save America from a debt crisis 🇺🇸 💰
1) All current programs revert to pre-COVID spending levels 📉
2) Indefinite pause on all new spending 🛑
@friedberg explains:
"We are in a fiscal crisis and we're not willing to admit it."
"If you are an American, you should feel shame that your elected officials are proposing that we vaporize this much money, that we put ourselves this much further in debt."
"We are now burning an additional $2.5T a year, adding to our debt load."
"And I've said this from day one, that DOGE can only do so much, and at the end of the day, Congress needs to take action."
"And this bill from Congress doesn't take much action."
"If you look across the board, all of these programs are still being proposed to be run at a cost that is well in excess of their pre-COVID levels."
"And so I would set two guiding principles if I was the benevolent dictator of the United States of America."
"My guiding principle number one, would be that any program that we intend to continue to persist have its budget level cut to pre-COVID 2019 levels."
"The second would be that we add no new programs in the moment."
"There's a whole bunch of new sh*t thrown into this bill."
"I'm a big believer in cutting taxes, but at the end of the day, you can't just say, 'Hey, let's cut taxes and spend more than we're making.' It doesn't make sense."
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Capital Employed
A fresh batch of Q1 2025 fund letters have just been added.
100 letters in total. A treasure trove for ideas and insights >
https://t.co/lJZP1lULJ5
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A fresh batch of Q1 2025 fund letters have just been added.
100 letters in total. A treasure trove for ideas and insights >
https://t.co/lJZP1lULJ5
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Wall St Engine
Today's Key Events (All EST) — 05/20/2025
(All Day): G7 Finance Summit
08:55: US Redbook YoY
09:00: Fed's Bostic
09:00: Fed's Barkin
09:30: Fed's Collins
13:00: Fed's Musalem
17:00: Fed's Kugler
19:00: Fed's Hammack & Daly
Before Open 👇
05:00: $PONY AI
05:00: Bilibili $BILI
05:00: Vipshop Holdings $VIPS
05:25: Elbit Systems $ESLT
06:00: Home Depot $HD
06:00: Amer Sports $AS
06:15: Canaan $CAN
06:30: Eagle Materials $EXP
07:00: Viking Holdings $VIK
07:00: Arbe Robotics $ARBE
07:00: Freightos $CRGO
07:30: $GDS
Nebius Group $NBIS
After Hours 👇
04:05: Palo Alto Networks $PANW
04:05: Keysight Tech $KEYS
04:05: Ontrak $OTRK
04:10: Skyline $SKY
04:15: Modine $MOD
04:15: Auna S.A. $AUNA
04:30: Toll Brothers, Inc. $TOL
04:30: Ellington Residential Mortgage REIT $EARN
04:30: ViaSat $VSAT
04:35: XP Inc. $XP
After Close: Tuya $TUYA
06:00: ZTO Express $ZTO
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Today's Key Events (All EST) — 05/20/2025
(All Day): G7 Finance Summit
08:55: US Redbook YoY
09:00: Fed's Bostic
09:00: Fed's Barkin
09:30: Fed's Collins
13:00: Fed's Musalem
17:00: Fed's Kugler
19:00: Fed's Hammack & Daly
Before Open 👇
05:00: $PONY AI
05:00: Bilibili $BILI
05:00: Vipshop Holdings $VIPS
05:25: Elbit Systems $ESLT
06:00: Home Depot $HD
06:00: Amer Sports $AS
06:15: Canaan $CAN
06:30: Eagle Materials $EXP
07:00: Viking Holdings $VIK
07:00: Arbe Robotics $ARBE
07:00: Freightos $CRGO
07:30: $GDS
Nebius Group $NBIS
After Hours 👇
04:05: Palo Alto Networks $PANW
04:05: Keysight Tech $KEYS
04:05: Ontrak $OTRK
04:10: Skyline $SKY
04:15: Modine $MOD
04:15: Auna S.A. $AUNA
04:30: Toll Brothers, Inc. $TOL
04:30: Ellington Residential Mortgage REIT $EARN
04:30: ViaSat $VSAT
04:35: XP Inc. $XP
After Close: Tuya $TUYA
06:00: ZTO Express $ZTO
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Wall St Engine
INDONESIA RIDE-HAILING FACES MAJOR STRIKE TUESDAY
Over 25,000 drivers across Indonesia plan to log off platforms like $GRAB, $GOTO, InDrive and Shopee in a mass protest over pay and platform commissions. Garda, one of the country’s largest driver groups, is leading the strike, demanding a 10% cap on app fees and stricter rule enforcement. The disruption hits as Grab pushes ahead with a $7B takeover of GoTo—both heavily reliant on Indonesia, the region’s biggest ride-hailing market. (Bloomberg)
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INDONESIA RIDE-HAILING FACES MAJOR STRIKE TUESDAY
Over 25,000 drivers across Indonesia plan to log off platforms like $GRAB, $GOTO, InDrive and Shopee in a mass protest over pay and platform commissions. Garda, one of the country’s largest driver groups, is leading the strike, demanding a 10% cap on app fees and stricter rule enforcement. The disruption hits as Grab pushes ahead with a $7B takeover of GoTo—both heavily reliant on Indonesia, the region’s biggest ride-hailing market. (Bloomberg)
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Wall St Engine
California regulators just cleared Waymo to expand its autonomous ride-hailing service deeper into the Bay Area, including San Jose. $GOOGL now has the green light to operate its fully driverless Waymo One fleet across more of Silicon Valley. The company already delivers over 250K paid robotaxi rides a week.
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California regulators just cleared Waymo to expand its autonomous ride-hailing service deeper into the Bay Area, including San Jose. $GOOGL now has the green light to operate its fully driverless Waymo One fleet across more of Silicon Valley. The company already delivers over 250K paid robotaxi rides a week.
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Wall St Engine
$PFE STRIKES $6B+ CANCER DRUG DEAL WITH CHINA'S 3SBIO
Pfizer is licensing an experimental cancer therapy from China’s 3SBio for $1.25B upfront and up to $4.8B in milestone payments, plus a $100M equity stake. The drug, SSGJ-707, is being tested for lung, colorectal, and gynecological cancers. Pfizer gets global rights outside China and may expand inside later. Manufacturing will happen in North Carolina and Kansas.
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$PFE STRIKES $6B+ CANCER DRUG DEAL WITH CHINA'S 3SBIO
Pfizer is licensing an experimental cancer therapy from China’s 3SBio for $1.25B upfront and up to $4.8B in milestone payments, plus a $100M equity stake. The drug, SSGJ-707, is being tested for lung, colorectal, and gynecological cancers. Pfizer gets global rights outside China and may expand inside later. Manufacturing will happen in North Carolina and Kansas.
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Wall St Engine
CATL RAISES $4.6B IN YEAR’S BIGGEST LISTING
Chinese battery giant CATL surged in its Hong Kong debut, with shares climbing as much as 18% after pricing at a 7% discount to its Shenzhen listing. The $4.6B raise marks the biggest equity offering globally this year. CATL plans to use 90% of the proceeds to fund its Hungary factory as it continues global expansion. The stock pop comes as U.S.-China trade tensions ease, lifting sentiment for Chinese listings. (WSJ)
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CATL RAISES $4.6B IN YEAR’S BIGGEST LISTING
Chinese battery giant CATL surged in its Hong Kong debut, with shares climbing as much as 18% after pricing at a 7% discount to its Shenzhen listing. The $4.6B raise marks the biggest equity offering globally this year. CATL plans to use 90% of the proceeds to fund its Hungary factory as it continues global expansion. The stock pop comes as U.S.-China trade tensions ease, lifting sentiment for Chinese listings. (WSJ)
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Wall St Engine
Morgan Stanley Downgrades $ASAN to Underweight from Equalweight, Sets PT at $14.00
Analyst comments: "Asana shares are up over 40% since the day after Q4 earnings compared to the SMID Software group, which is up approximately 6%. Co-founder Dustin Moskovitz's insider buying—over $50 million in shares post-Q4 earnings—has likely driven this outperformance. However, our channel checks and the broader macro environment do not support a case for improving fundamentals.
1. Partner checks indicate intensifying competition, with Asana losing share to Monday .com and other private companies in Collaborative Work Management.
2. Although in-quarter net revenue retention (NRR) improved in Q4, overall NRR for total, >\$5K, and >\$100K cohorts remains at 96–97%, continuing a three-year decline and signaling ongoing customer downsizing risk.
3. Continued layoffs in the technology vertical through April and May challenge stability in this segment, which accounts for around 30% of Asana's revenue and has already been cited as a growth headwind.
4. Uncertainty around leadership amid the ongoing CEO search further adds execution and strategic risks."
Analyst: Josh Baer
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Morgan Stanley Downgrades $ASAN to Underweight from Equalweight, Sets PT at $14.00
Analyst comments: "Asana shares are up over 40% since the day after Q4 earnings compared to the SMID Software group, which is up approximately 6%. Co-founder Dustin Moskovitz's insider buying—over $50 million in shares post-Q4 earnings—has likely driven this outperformance. However, our channel checks and the broader macro environment do not support a case for improving fundamentals.
1. Partner checks indicate intensifying competition, with Asana losing share to Monday .com and other private companies in Collaborative Work Management.
2. Although in-quarter net revenue retention (NRR) improved in Q4, overall NRR for total, >\$5K, and >\$100K cohorts remains at 96–97%, continuing a three-year decline and signaling ongoing customer downsizing risk.
3. Continued layoffs in the technology vertical through April and May challenge stability in this segment, which accounts for around 30% of Asana's revenue and has already been cited as a growth headwind.
4. Uncertainty around leadership amid the ongoing CEO search further adds execution and strategic risks."
Analyst: Josh Baer
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Wall St Engine
RETAIL DIP BUYING HITS RECORD
Retail traders bought a net $4.1B in US stocks by 12:30pm Monday — the biggest half-day buying spree ever, per JPMorgan. https://t.co/sOQj7pq6JQ
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RETAIL DIP BUYING HITS RECORD
Retail traders bought a net $4.1B in US stocks by 12:30pm Monday — the biggest half-day buying spree ever, per JPMorgan. https://t.co/sOQj7pq6JQ
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