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Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
Not Babylon Capital®
While most Fund Managers missed out on the recent surge, at Babylon Capital® we urged our investors to take advantage of the most recent decline on April 5th
3 trading days later, the S&P 500 $SPY posted its 3rd largest gain since WWII, soaring +9.52% 📈 https://t.co/QnkqCZmKtL
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Not Babylon Capital®
While most Fund Managers missed out on the recent surge, at Babylon Capital® we urged our investors to take advantage of the most recent decline on April 5th
3 trading days later, the S&P 500 $SPY posted its 3rd largest gain since WWII, soaring +9.52% 📈 https://t.co/QnkqCZmKtL
BREAKING 🚨: Fund Managers
Fund Managers have missed out on the recent stock surge after recently reducing their equity exposure to the lowest levels in 2 years 👀 Rekt! tweet
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The All-In Podcast
"That's how you get a deal done in China." 🇨🇳
Travis Kalanick tells the INSANE story of Uber's 2016 merger with China-based Didi
Sit back and enjoy one of the greatest business showdowns of all-time: Uber vs China
This saga included:
-- Uber doing business in China like no company had done before 📈
-- China's SWF investing in Uber competitors around the world to drain its resources 💰
-- A very peculiar Apple investment 🤔
-- Uber burning $75M/week to keep China "scared" 🔥
-- " We knew we had the deal, but we only had the deal if they're scared."
Recorded September 2024 at the All-In Summit
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"That's how you get a deal done in China." 🇨🇳
Travis Kalanick tells the INSANE story of Uber's 2016 merger with China-based Didi
Sit back and enjoy one of the greatest business showdowns of all-time: Uber vs China
This saga included:
-- Uber doing business in China like no company had done before 📈
-- China's SWF investing in Uber competitors around the world to drain its resources 💰
-- A very peculiar Apple investment 🤔
-- Uber burning $75M/week to keep China "scared" 🔥
-- " We knew we had the deal, but we only had the deal if they're scared."
Recorded September 2024 at the All-In Summit
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Wall St Engine
Today's Key Events (All EST) — 05/14/2025
05:15: Fed's Waller
07:00: US MBA Mortgage Applications
09:10: Fed's Jefferson
17:40: Fed's Daly
Before Open 👇
02:00: $SONY
06:30: Dynatrace, Inc. $DT
07:00: Cellebrite $CLBT
07:00: Global-e Online Ltd. $GLBE
07:20: Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc. $ARCO
07:20: Endava $DAVA
B.O.: MakeMyTrip $MMYT
After Hours 👇
16:00: Ibotta $IBTA
16:00: Boot Barn Holdings, Inc. $BOOT
16:00: Capital Southwest Corp. $CSWC
16:05: Cisco Systems, Inc. $CSCO
16:05: Iris Energy Limited $IREN
16:05: Nextracker $NXT
16:05: DLocal Limited $DLO
16:10: Hawkins Inc. $HWKN
16:15: TMC the metals company Inc. $TMC
16:15: Star Bulk Carriers Corp $SBLK
16:15: DXC Technology Company $DXC
16:15: Fidelis Insurance Holdings $FIHL
16:20: Karooooo Ltd. $KARO
16:30: STERIS Corp. $STE
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Today's Key Events (All EST) — 05/14/2025
05:15: Fed's Waller
07:00: US MBA Mortgage Applications
09:10: Fed's Jefferson
17:40: Fed's Daly
Before Open 👇
02:00: $SONY
06:30: Dynatrace, Inc. $DT
07:00: Cellebrite $CLBT
07:00: Global-e Online Ltd. $GLBE
07:20: Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc. $ARCO
07:20: Endava $DAVA
B.O.: MakeMyTrip $MMYT
After Hours 👇
16:00: Ibotta $IBTA
16:00: Boot Barn Holdings, Inc. $BOOT
16:00: Capital Southwest Corp. $CSWC
16:05: Cisco Systems, Inc. $CSCO
16:05: Iris Energy Limited $IREN
16:05: Nextracker $NXT
16:05: DLocal Limited $DLO
16:10: Hawkins Inc. $HWKN
16:15: TMC the metals company Inc. $TMC
16:15: Star Bulk Carriers Corp $SBLK
16:15: DXC Technology Company $DXC
16:15: Fidelis Insurance Holdings $FIHL
16:20: Karooooo Ltd. $KARO
16:30: STERIS Corp. $STE
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Wall St Engine
Jefferies Downgrades $RIVN to Hold from Buy, PT $16; 'downbeat demand outlook this year'
Analyst comments: "Q1's better numbers were helped by new accounting of previously received funds, but management also demonstrated further progress in driving down R1 variable unit costs and in managing cash carefully. We like Rivian's brand equity story and software achievements, but with a downbeat demand outlook this year, we are left waiting for updates on R2 progress and hoping for third-party opportunities in energy efficiency/software-defined vehicles. Rating to Hold, unchanged $16 PT."
Analyst: Philippe Houchois
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Jefferies Downgrades $RIVN to Hold from Buy, PT $16; 'downbeat demand outlook this year'
Analyst comments: "Q1's better numbers were helped by new accounting of previously received funds, but management also demonstrated further progress in driving down R1 variable unit costs and in managing cash carefully. We like Rivian's brand equity story and software achievements, but with a downbeat demand outlook this year, we are left waiting for updates on R2 progress and hoping for third-party opportunities in energy efficiency/software-defined vehicles. Rating to Hold, unchanged $16 PT."
Analyst: Philippe Houchois
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Wall St Engine
$SONY TO BUY BACK ¥250B IN SHARES, PROJECTS LOWER PROFIT ON TARIFF HIT
Sony posted FY25 net income of ¥1.14T, up 18% Y/Y, but sees FY26 profit dropping 13% to ¥930B as U.S. tariffs are expected to cut operating profit by ¥100B. Revenue is forecast to fall 2.9% to ¥11.7T. Spin-off of Sony Financial set for board vote in Sept.
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$SONY TO BUY BACK ¥250B IN SHARES, PROJECTS LOWER PROFIT ON TARIFF HIT
Sony posted FY25 net income of ¥1.14T, up 18% Y/Y, but sees FY26 profit dropping 13% to ¥930B as U.S. tariffs are expected to cut operating profit by ¥100B. Revenue is forecast to fall 2.9% to ¥11.7T. Spin-off of Sony Financial set for board vote in Sept.
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Wall St Engine
BURBERRY TO CUT 1,700 JOBS AMID LUXURY SLOWDOWN
Burberry reported Q4 retail comp sales down 6%, slightly better than the estimated -7.78%. But the company plans to cut ~1,700 jobs as part of a restructuring effort aimed at saving £60M by FY27. FY25 rev hit £2.46B, in line with expectations, but it swung to a £66M pretax loss from £383M profit.
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BURBERRY TO CUT 1,700 JOBS AMID LUXURY SLOWDOWN
Burberry reported Q4 retail comp sales down 6%, slightly better than the estimated -7.78%. But the company plans to cut ~1,700 jobs as part of a restructuring effort aimed at saving £60M by FY27. FY25 rev hit £2.46B, in line with expectations, but it swung to a £66M pretax loss from £383M profit.
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Wall St Engine
Foxconn, a major supplier for $AAPL and $NVDA, posted a solid Q1, with net profit up 91% Y/Y to NT$42.11B (US$1.38B), beating expectations. Revenue rose 24% to NT$1.644T, helped by early shipments ahead of new U.S. tariffs. But the company lowered its full-year guidance, now expecting revenue to be "stronger" vs "significantly stronger" than last year. Cloud and AI server products made up 34% of Q1 revenue.
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Foxconn, a major supplier for $AAPL and $NVDA, posted a solid Q1, with net profit up 91% Y/Y to NT$42.11B (US$1.38B), beating expectations. Revenue rose 24% to NT$1.644T, helped by early shipments ahead of new U.S. tariffs. But the company lowered its full-year guidance, now expecting revenue to be "stronger" vs "significantly stronger" than last year. Cloud and AI server products made up 34% of Q1 revenue.
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Wall St Engine
$TSLA's BOARD is weighing a new pay package for Elon Musk, per FT. A special two-member committee has been formed to review compensation options—including fresh stock grants tied to performance targets—if Musk’s $56B 2018 package isn’t reinstated via appeal. https://t.co/auhrLfMlUi
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$TSLA's BOARD is weighing a new pay package for Elon Musk, per FT. A special two-member committee has been formed to review compensation options—including fresh stock grants tied to performance targets—if Musk’s $56B 2018 package isn’t reinstated via appeal. https://t.co/auhrLfMlUi
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Wall St Engine
JPMorgan Upgrades $SE to Overweight from Neutral, Raises PT to $190 from $135
Analyst comments: "E-commerce growth to come with margin expansion. Shopee’s EBITDA margin of 0.9% to GMV positively surprised in 1Q25, while GMV growth of 21% year-over-year likely outpaced market growth. Moreover, logistics cost per order in Asia declined further by 6% year-over-year despite improvements in service quality and increasing coverage. In our view, the reduction in logistics cost per order is likely to make Shopee more cost competitive while also supporting margin expansion as effective subsidies (as a percentage of GMV) decline. Ad revenues growth of over 50% year-over-year is another positive that emerged from the 1Q25 results. The number of sellers who spent on ads increased 22% year-over-year, and they increased their overall ad spend. The growing ad spend reflects the value that Shopee is bringing to its sellers and buyers and should further support platform growth while bringing in high-margin revenues. In our view, Shopee’s leadership and scale bring numerous levers to improve monetization and drive growth. We increase our FY25/26E segment adjusted EBITDA forecasts by 55%/44%."
Analyst: Ranjan Sharma
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JPMorgan Upgrades $SE to Overweight from Neutral, Raises PT to $190 from $135
Analyst comments: "E-commerce growth to come with margin expansion. Shopee’s EBITDA margin of 0.9% to GMV positively surprised in 1Q25, while GMV growth of 21% year-over-year likely outpaced market growth. Moreover, logistics cost per order in Asia declined further by 6% year-over-year despite improvements in service quality and increasing coverage. In our view, the reduction in logistics cost per order is likely to make Shopee more cost competitive while also supporting margin expansion as effective subsidies (as a percentage of GMV) decline. Ad revenues growth of over 50% year-over-year is another positive that emerged from the 1Q25 results. The number of sellers who spent on ads increased 22% year-over-year, and they increased their overall ad spend. The growing ad spend reflects the value that Shopee is bringing to its sellers and buyers and should further support platform growth while bringing in high-margin revenues. In our view, Shopee’s leadership and scale bring numerous levers to improve monetization and drive growth. We increase our FY25/26E segment adjusted EBITDA forecasts by 55%/44%."
Analyst: Ranjan Sharma
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Wall St Engine
CITI ON $OKLO (NEUTRAL; PT $30): 'EXECUTING ON ALL FRONTS BUT NO FIREWORKS'
Analyst comments "Oklo is pursuing initial reactor deployment, isotope business, and a commercial sized fuel fabrication facility. Phase 1 of the pre-application readiness assessment has been initiated, following completion of site characterization at INL. Feedback items from the NRC are expected soon, which will help work through any potential hurdles ahead of formal application submission in 4Q25. First reactor deployment timeframe remains late 2027/early 2028. Total backlog stands at over 14GW, which appears largely unchanged Q/Q. Sam Altman no longer on the Board should facilitate conversations with data centers in addition to potential OpenAI relationship, we think. Atomic Alchemy’s demonstration lab will cost less than $0.5mm and should generate revenues from early to mid-2026, followed by a larger facility in 2028. Lastly, headway is being made to license a commercial fuel fabrication site."
Analyst Vikram Bagri
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CITI ON $OKLO (NEUTRAL; PT $30): 'EXECUTING ON ALL FRONTS BUT NO FIREWORKS'
Analyst comments "Oklo is pursuing initial reactor deployment, isotope business, and a commercial sized fuel fabrication facility. Phase 1 of the pre-application readiness assessment has been initiated, following completion of site characterization at INL. Feedback items from the NRC are expected soon, which will help work through any potential hurdles ahead of formal application submission in 4Q25. First reactor deployment timeframe remains late 2027/early 2028. Total backlog stands at over 14GW, which appears largely unchanged Q/Q. Sam Altman no longer on the Board should facilitate conversations with data centers in addition to potential OpenAI relationship, we think. Atomic Alchemy’s demonstration lab will cost less than $0.5mm and should generate revenues from early to mid-2026, followed by a larger facility in 2028. Lastly, headway is being made to license a commercial fuel fabrication site."
Analyst Vikram Bagri
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Wall St Engine
Morgan Stanley Double Downgrades $CBOE to Underweight from Overweight, Lowers PT to $215 from $256
Analyst comments: "Trimming defensive exposure with double downgrade of CBOE to Underweight (from Overweight) on the back of greater-than-expected tariff de-escalation with China and scope for a better-than-feared macro path ahead, with volatility (VIX) declining sharply. Combined, this could limit upside to index options volumes on CBOE's derivative exchange and weigh on the growth outlook and valuation, with CBOE's shares trading at a premium to recent years and outperforming year-to-date (up 13%). We cut EPS estimates by 1%, and the new $215 price target sees 3% downside, while the bull case sees 38% upside and the bear case sees 41% downside."
Analyst: Michael Cyprys
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Morgan Stanley Double Downgrades $CBOE to Underweight from Overweight, Lowers PT to $215 from $256
Analyst comments: "Trimming defensive exposure with double downgrade of CBOE to Underweight (from Overweight) on the back of greater-than-expected tariff de-escalation with China and scope for a better-than-feared macro path ahead, with volatility (VIX) declining sharply. Combined, this could limit upside to index options volumes on CBOE's derivative exchange and weigh on the growth outlook and valuation, with CBOE's shares trading at a premium to recent years and outperforming year-to-date (up 13%). We cut EPS estimates by 1%, and the new $215 price target sees 3% downside, while the bull case sees 38% upside and the bear case sees 41% downside."
Analyst: Michael Cyprys
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Wall St Engine
Citi Reiterates Buy Rating on $AMZN, Maintains PT at $225
Analyst comments: "Yesterday, Amazon held its annual Upfront advertising event and our biggest takeaways include: 1) Amazon’s reach—300 million ad-supported viewers (vs. 275 million in May 2024) and Prime Video’s ad-supported monthly audience reaching 130 million (vs. 115 million in May 2024); 2) Greater engagement—monthly viewing hours up 37% year-over-year; 3) The benefits of live sports on engagement and ads—with Thursday Night Football the anchor and NBA launching in October 2025; 4) Full-funnel focus—88% of Prime Video viewers are shopping on Amazon; and 5) Building out Amazon’s Demand-Side Platform. We project Amazon ads revenue to reach $66 billion this year (+18% year-over-year) as its ability to deliver reach, engagement, and purchases is differentiated. With tariffs on Chinese goods reduced to ~30% (from 145%) and some relief on de minimis, we are incrementally positive on Amazon’s retail business, back-to-school prospects, and operating income, and we reiterate our Buy rating and $225 price target."
Analyst: Ronald Josey
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Citi Reiterates Buy Rating on $AMZN, Maintains PT at $225
Analyst comments: "Yesterday, Amazon held its annual Upfront advertising event and our biggest takeaways include: 1) Amazon’s reach—300 million ad-supported viewers (vs. 275 million in May 2024) and Prime Video’s ad-supported monthly audience reaching 130 million (vs. 115 million in May 2024); 2) Greater engagement—monthly viewing hours up 37% year-over-year; 3) The benefits of live sports on engagement and ads—with Thursday Night Football the anchor and NBA launching in October 2025; 4) Full-funnel focus—88% of Prime Video viewers are shopping on Amazon; and 5) Building out Amazon’s Demand-Side Platform. We project Amazon ads revenue to reach $66 billion this year (+18% year-over-year) as its ability to deliver reach, engagement, and purchases is differentiated. With tariffs on Chinese goods reduced to ~30% (from 145%) and some relief on de minimis, we are incrementally positive on Amazon’s retail business, back-to-school prospects, and operating income, and we reiterate our Buy rating and $225 price target."
Analyst: Ronald Josey
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