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Wall St Engine
Adobe $ADBE will offer U.S. government agencies a 70% discount on software packages—including Acrobat—through November, following a DOGE-led review of tech spending. https://t.co/NZPrzD8rjL
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Adobe $ADBE will offer U.S. government agencies a 70% discount on software packages—including Acrobat—through November, following a DOGE-led review of tech spending. https://t.co/NZPrzD8rjL
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Capital Employed
Another fresh batch of Q1 2025 fund letters just added.
89 added now in total.
The majority of funds are in negative territory this year to date.
https://t.co/lJZP1lUdTx https://t.co/NNg5Ufn6TA
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Another fresh batch of Q1 2025 fund letters just added.
89 added now in total.
The majority of funds are in negative territory this year to date.
https://t.co/lJZP1lUdTx https://t.co/NNg5Ufn6TA
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Hidden Value Gems
Cannot remember a company where SOTP valuation was lower than the share price.
“Listed companies Shell, Chevron, ExxonMobil and TotalEnergies, as well as Abu Dhabi’s Adnoc, have separately run the numbers, according to industry sources and advisers, while oil trader Vitol could be interested in elements of the business.”
“A sum of the parts valuation suggests BP’s assets are worth in excess of £120bn, without including debt and liabilities, more than twice its current market capitalisation of £57bn, which follows a sharp slump in its shares over the past 12 months.”
$BP
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Cannot remember a company where SOTP valuation was lower than the share price.
“Listed companies Shell, Chevron, ExxonMobil and TotalEnergies, as well as Abu Dhabi’s Adnoc, have separately run the numbers, according to industry sources and advisers, while oil trader Vitol could be interested in elements of the business.”
“A sum of the parts valuation suggests BP’s assets are worth in excess of £120bn, without including debt and liabilities, more than twice its current market capitalisation of £57bn, which follows a sharp slump in its shares over the past 12 months.”
$BP
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Wall St Engine
NVIDIA $NVDA to release a downgraded version of its H20 AI chip in China by July, per Reuters. The modified H20 will reportedly feature reduced memory capacity and performance. https://t.co/Sh8nFbcDGX
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NVIDIA $NVDA to release a downgraded version of its H20 AI chip in China by July, per Reuters. The modified H20 will reportedly feature reduced memory capacity and performance. https://t.co/Sh8nFbcDGX
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Wall St Engine
TSMC just posted its highest-ever monthly revenue in April — NT$349.57B (≈$11.54B USD), up 48% YoY and +22% from March. https://t.co/8a8zeJwfjj
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TSMC just posted its highest-ever monthly revenue in April — NT$349.57B (≈$11.54B USD), up 48% YoY and +22% from March. https://t.co/8a8zeJwfjj
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Wall St Engine
China’s 🇨🇳 April export numbers came in stronger than expected—up 8.1% year-over-year—even as shipments to the U.S. 🇺🇸 dropped sharply by 21% due to new tariffs. The data shows China is redirecting trade flows to other key markets like Southeast Asia, the EU, and India to offset U.S. losses. That’s likely raising concerns globally about overcapacity and potential product dumping.
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China’s 🇨🇳 April export numbers came in stronger than expected—up 8.1% year-over-year—even as shipments to the U.S. 🇺🇸 dropped sharply by 21% due to new tariffs. The data shows China is redirecting trade flows to other key markets like Southeast Asia, the EU, and India to offset U.S. losses. That’s likely raising concerns globally about overcapacity and potential product dumping.
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Wall St Engine
Wolfspeed $WOLF forecasted 2026 revenue of $850 million, falling short of Wall Street’s $958.7 million estimate. Q3 revenue dropped 7% to $185.4 million, slightly missing expectations.
Weakened EV demand, new tariffs raising auto part costs, and delayed product launches have hit sales. Broader economic pressures—like high interest rates—are also slowing industrial and energy sector investments.
Uncertainty around CHIPS Act funding, after calls for repeal, has further shaken investor confidence. Wolfspeed posted a Q3 loss of 72 cents per share, beating the expected 82-cent loss.
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Wolfspeed $WOLF forecasted 2026 revenue of $850 million, falling short of Wall Street’s $958.7 million estimate. Q3 revenue dropped 7% to $185.4 million, slightly missing expectations.
Weakened EV demand, new tariffs raising auto part costs, and delayed product launches have hit sales. Broader economic pressures—like high interest rates—are also slowing industrial and energy sector investments.
Uncertainty around CHIPS Act funding, after calls for repeal, has further shaken investor confidence. Wolfspeed posted a Q3 loss of 72 cents per share, beating the expected 82-cent loss.
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Wall St Engine
MoffettNathanson Maintains Neutral on $TTD, Raises PT to $75 from $60; "We continue to worry that the CTV ad market is incredibly fluid and we haven’t put those fears of new competition to bed just yet"
Analyst comments: "Yet, if we step back and look at where our 2025 estimates are now vs. pre-February 11th, we see that our current 2025 revenue forecast of $2.87 billion is 4% below our pre-4Q’24 estimate of $2.99 billion. Again, nothing to see here except that the stock was priced for perfection at $120 per share and a topline miss of any kind creates significant downside pressure. However, on a GAAP EBITDA basis, our current TTD 2025 forecast of $667 million is almost 25% lower than the pre-4Q’24 estimate. Thus, we would chalk another lever of the stock’s sell-off to negative earnings revisions and worries about operating leverage—or lack thereof. For example, in this current quarter, The Trade Desk’s GAAP EBITDA operating leverage was 23%, which is more than half of what it was in Q1 last year (52%) and in all of 2024 (47%). So while the top-line results grew nicely, the translation into profitability lagged last year’s conversion rates. As the company has noted, they are in the midst of investing in talent and products, which will likely be a feature of this year’s financial results. The question post-2025 is whether or not the 2023 and 2024 operating leverage and margin enhancement was a relic of a different bygone time. There were many analyst questions on the call focusing on the threat that Amazon poses to The Trade Desk’s preeminent position in the connected TV space, and the answers from TTD were clear and well-thought-out. With limited access, at present, to quality third-party streaming inventory, Amazon can currently be dismissed as a conflicted walled garden re-seller like Google. In addition, even with the move to insert advertising in Amazon Prime Video, there is simply not enough reach or impressions to offer an attractive proposition relative to the fully-stocked Trade Desk. Yet, if this remains the case, we would truly be shocked. Given the current challenges facing AVOD/FAST players in terms of both CPM price ranges and fill rates, we expect that Amazon will gain access to these undifferentiated platforms and use their first-party data to push more dollars their way. While we don’t expect a YouTube or Netflix to partner with Amazon, other streaming players in need of channel distribution across Amazon’s storefront or even better revenue share distribution terms also seem to be susceptible for some horse-trading. So, while today’s results were super strong and the company’s positioning is impressive, we continue to worry that the connected TV ad market is incredibly fluid and we haven’t put those fears of new competition to bed just yet."
Analyst: Michael Nathanson
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MoffettNathanson Maintains Neutral on $TTD, Raises PT to $75 from $60; "We continue to worry that the CTV ad market is incredibly fluid and we haven’t put those fears of new competition to bed just yet"
Analyst comments: "Yet, if we step back and look at where our 2025 estimates are now vs. pre-February 11th, we see that our current 2025 revenue forecast of $2.87 billion is 4% below our pre-4Q’24 estimate of $2.99 billion. Again, nothing to see here except that the stock was priced for perfection at $120 per share and a topline miss of any kind creates significant downside pressure. However, on a GAAP EBITDA basis, our current TTD 2025 forecast of $667 million is almost 25% lower than the pre-4Q’24 estimate. Thus, we would chalk another lever of the stock’s sell-off to negative earnings revisions and worries about operating leverage—or lack thereof. For example, in this current quarter, The Trade Desk’s GAAP EBITDA operating leverage was 23%, which is more than half of what it was in Q1 last year (52%) and in all of 2024 (47%). So while the top-line results grew nicely, the translation into profitability lagged last year’s conversion rates. As the company has noted, they are in the midst of investing in talent and products, which will likely be a feature of this year’s financial results. The question post-2025 is whether or not the 2023 and 2024 operating leverage and margin enhancement was a relic of a different bygone time. There were many analyst questions on the call focusing on the threat that Amazon poses to The Trade Desk’s preeminent position in the connected TV space, and the answers from TTD were clear and well-thought-out. With limited access, at present, to quality third-party streaming inventory, Amazon can currently be dismissed as a conflicted walled garden re-seller like Google. In addition, even with the move to insert advertising in Amazon Prime Video, there is simply not enough reach or impressions to offer an attractive proposition relative to the fully-stocked Trade Desk. Yet, if this remains the case, we would truly be shocked. Given the current challenges facing AVOD/FAST players in terms of both CPM price ranges and fill rates, we expect that Amazon will gain access to these undifferentiated platforms and use their first-party data to push more dollars their way. While we don’t expect a YouTube or Netflix to partner with Amazon, other streaming players in need of channel distribution across Amazon’s storefront or even better revenue share distribution terms also seem to be susceptible for some horse-trading. So, while today’s results were super strong and the company’s positioning is impressive, we continue to worry that the connected TV ad market is incredibly fluid and we haven’t put those fears of new competition to bed just yet."
Analyst: Michael Nathanson
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