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Bank of America is sticking with its Buy rating on $GOOGL arguing the core Google Ads & Play businesses trade at just 9x 2026E earnings, well below the S&P 500’s 20x, which they see as compelling value (based on $285 in estimated GAAP EPS for 2026).
That valuation excludes contributions from YouTube, Cloud, Waymo, cash, and still-bleeding Other Bets—so there’s plenty of optionality.
BoA also highlights that total queries are growing, including on Apple devices, potentially thanks to tools like Circle to Search, image and voice search, the Google app, and Gemini.
On the Apple Safari TAC deal, they estimate it made up about 26% of 2025 net search revenue and 30% of profits, assuming gross revenue from Safari grew 44% over three years. But even with that risk, they believe the downside is priced in—with $GOOGL trading at just 15x 2026 earnings.
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Bank of America is sticking with its Buy rating on $GOOGL arguing the core Google Ads & Play businesses trade at just 9x 2026E earnings, well below the S&P 500’s 20x, which they see as compelling value (based on $285 in estimated GAAP EPS for 2026).
That valuation excludes contributions from YouTube, Cloud, Waymo, cash, and still-bleeding Other Bets—so there’s plenty of optionality.
BoA also highlights that total queries are growing, including on Apple devices, potentially thanks to tools like Circle to Search, image and voice search, the Google app, and Gemini.
On the Apple Safari TAC deal, they estimate it made up about 26% of 2025 net search revenue and 30% of profits, assuming gross revenue from Safari grew 44% over three years. But even with that risk, they believe the downside is priced in—with $GOOGL trading at just 15x 2026 earnings.
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S&P 500 Closing Bell Heatmap (May 08, 2025)
$SPY +0.68% 🟩
$QQQ +1.03% 🟩
$DJI +0.62% 🟩
$IWM +1.92% 🟩 https://t.co/gU7YL3e3A3
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S&P 500 Closing Bell Heatmap (May 08, 2025)
$SPY +0.68% 🟩
$QQQ +1.03% 🟩
$DJI +0.62% 🟩
$IWM +1.92% 🟩 https://t.co/gU7YL3e3A3
S&P 500 Opening Bell Heatmap (May 08, 2025)
$SPY +0.71% 🟩
$QQQ +1.02% 🟩
$DJI +0.50% 🟩
$IWM +1.16% 🟩 tweet
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$TTD Q1 Earnings 🚨
• Revenue $616 Mln vs Est. $575 Mln (7% beat)
• EPS $0.33 vs Est. $0.25 (32% beat)
Shares are up +11% after hour https://t.co/QaSkkXUtVX
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$TTD Q1 Earnings 🚨
• Revenue $616 Mln vs Est. $575 Mln (7% beat)
• EPS $0.33 vs Est. $0.25 (32% beat)
Shares are up +11% after hour https://t.co/QaSkkXUtVX
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Wall St Engine
$LYFT Q1'25 Earnings Highlights
🔹 Revenue: $1.45B (Est. $1.47B) 🔴
🔹 Gross Bookings: $4.16B (Est. $4.15B) 🟢; +13% YoY
🔹 Adj EBITDA: $106.5M (Est. $92.4M) 🟢; +79% YoY
Q2'25 Guidance:
🔹 Gross Bookings: $4.41B–$4.57B (Est. $4.5B) 🟡; UP +10% to +14% YoY
🔹 Adjusted EBITDA: $115M–$130M (Est. $123.2M) 🟡
🔹 Adjusted EBITDA Margin: 2.6%–2.8%
Q1 Operational Metrics:
🔹 Rides: 218.4M; UP +16% YoY — record Q1
🔹 Active Riders: 24.2M; UP +11% YoY — record Q1
🔹 Net Income: $2.6M (vs. -$31.5M YoY)
🔹 Net Income Margin: 0.1% (vs. -0.9% YoY)
🔹 Adjusted EBITDA Margin: 2.6% (vs. 1.6% YoY)
🔹 Operating Cash Flow: $287.2M (vs. $156.2M YoY)
🔹 Free Cash Flow: $280.7M (vs. $127.1M YoY)
🔹 TTM Operating Cash Flow: $980.8M
🔹 TTM Free Cash Flow: $919.9M
Strategic & Business Highlights:
🔸 16th consecutive quarter of double-digit YoY Gross Bookings growth
🔸 Rides reached highest weekly levels ever in last week of March
🔸 Announced Lyft Silver: a new service for older adults (65+), currently 5% of riders, targeting 70M+ aging population by 2030
🔸 Rolled out Earnings Assistant, an AI-powered tool to help drivers optimize earnings
🔸 Acquiring FREENOW to expand into Europe
Capital Allocation:
🔹 Share Repurchase Program increased to $750M
🔹 $500M to be deployed in next 12 months; $200M within the next 3 months
🔹 Will execute repurchases via Rule 10b5-1 trading plans
CEO David Risher's Commentary:
🔸 "Q1 marked our strongest start ever, with record Gross Bookings and Rides. We’re expanding demographics through Lyft Silver and geographic reach via FREENOW. Our strategy is delivering momentum and resilience."
CFO Erin Brewer's Commentary:
🔸 “With 16% ride growth, strong profits, and nearly $1B in TTM operating cash flow, we’re executing with financial discipline. This strength supports our expanded repurchase program and ongoing investment in growth.”
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$LYFT Q1'25 Earnings Highlights
🔹 Revenue: $1.45B (Est. $1.47B) 🔴
🔹 Gross Bookings: $4.16B (Est. $4.15B) 🟢; +13% YoY
🔹 Adj EBITDA: $106.5M (Est. $92.4M) 🟢; +79% YoY
Q2'25 Guidance:
🔹 Gross Bookings: $4.41B–$4.57B (Est. $4.5B) 🟡; UP +10% to +14% YoY
🔹 Adjusted EBITDA: $115M–$130M (Est. $123.2M) 🟡
🔹 Adjusted EBITDA Margin: 2.6%–2.8%
Q1 Operational Metrics:
🔹 Rides: 218.4M; UP +16% YoY — record Q1
🔹 Active Riders: 24.2M; UP +11% YoY — record Q1
🔹 Net Income: $2.6M (vs. -$31.5M YoY)
🔹 Net Income Margin: 0.1% (vs. -0.9% YoY)
🔹 Adjusted EBITDA Margin: 2.6% (vs. 1.6% YoY)
🔹 Operating Cash Flow: $287.2M (vs. $156.2M YoY)
🔹 Free Cash Flow: $280.7M (vs. $127.1M YoY)
🔹 TTM Operating Cash Flow: $980.8M
🔹 TTM Free Cash Flow: $919.9M
Strategic & Business Highlights:
🔸 16th consecutive quarter of double-digit YoY Gross Bookings growth
🔸 Rides reached highest weekly levels ever in last week of March
🔸 Announced Lyft Silver: a new service for older adults (65+), currently 5% of riders, targeting 70M+ aging population by 2030
🔸 Rolled out Earnings Assistant, an AI-powered tool to help drivers optimize earnings
🔸 Acquiring FREENOW to expand into Europe
Capital Allocation:
🔹 Share Repurchase Program increased to $750M
🔹 $500M to be deployed in next 12 months; $200M within the next 3 months
🔹 Will execute repurchases via Rule 10b5-1 trading plans
CEO David Risher's Commentary:
🔸 "Q1 marked our strongest start ever, with record Gross Bookings and Rides. We’re expanding demographics through Lyft Silver and geographic reach via FREENOW. Our strategy is delivering momentum and resilience."
CFO Erin Brewer's Commentary:
🔸 “With 16% ride growth, strong profits, and nearly $1B in TTM operating cash flow, we’re executing with financial discipline. This strength supports our expanded repurchase program and ongoing investment in growth.”
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Wall St Engine
$TTD | The Trade Desk Q1'25 Earnings Highlights
🔹 Revenue: $616M (Est. $575.3M) 🟢; UP +25% YoY
🔹 Non-GAAP EPS: $0.33 (Est. $0.25) 🟢
🔹 Adj EBITDA: $208M (vs. $162M YoY)
Guidance – Q2 2025:
🔹 Revenue: At least $682M (Est. $680M) 🟢
🔹 Adjusted EBITDA: ~$259M
Operational Highlights:
🔸 Customer retention remained over 95% – consistent for 11 consecutive years
🔸 COO Appointment: Vivek Kundra (ex-Salesforce, former U.S. Government CIO) joined to lead global ops and scale data-driven advertising growth
🔸 Unified ID 2.0 expansion: Adopted by Perion (US), Toyo Keizai (Japan), and Piemme (Italy) to enhance privacy-conscious ad targeting
🔸 OpenPath adoption expanded to Warner Bros. Discovery, The Guardian, and NY Post – NY Post saw 8.6x inventory fill rate increase and +97% YoY programmatic web display revenue
🔸 Acquired Sincera – a digital ad data company to strengthen transparency and valuation insights (no immediate revenue contribution)
🔸 Share Repurchase: $386M of Class A common stock repurchased in Q1; $631M authorization remains as of Mar 31, 2025
CEO Jeff Green's Commentary:
🔸 “We delivered strong results in Q1, growing revenue 25% YoY. Strategic upgrades from Q4 are driving outperformance.”
🔸 “In a volatile macro environment, marketers are embracing the open internet for growth and differentiation. Kokai enables this shift, positioning The Trade Desk as a key partner in maximizing value beyond walled gardens.”
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$TTD | The Trade Desk Q1'25 Earnings Highlights
🔹 Revenue: $616M (Est. $575.3M) 🟢; UP +25% YoY
🔹 Non-GAAP EPS: $0.33 (Est. $0.25) 🟢
🔹 Adj EBITDA: $208M (vs. $162M YoY)
Guidance – Q2 2025:
🔹 Revenue: At least $682M (Est. $680M) 🟢
🔹 Adjusted EBITDA: ~$259M
Operational Highlights:
🔸 Customer retention remained over 95% – consistent for 11 consecutive years
🔸 COO Appointment: Vivek Kundra (ex-Salesforce, former U.S. Government CIO) joined to lead global ops and scale data-driven advertising growth
🔸 Unified ID 2.0 expansion: Adopted by Perion (US), Toyo Keizai (Japan), and Piemme (Italy) to enhance privacy-conscious ad targeting
🔸 OpenPath adoption expanded to Warner Bros. Discovery, The Guardian, and NY Post – NY Post saw 8.6x inventory fill rate increase and +97% YoY programmatic web display revenue
🔸 Acquired Sincera – a digital ad data company to strengthen transparency and valuation insights (no immediate revenue contribution)
🔸 Share Repurchase: $386M of Class A common stock repurchased in Q1; $631M authorization remains as of Mar 31, 2025
CEO Jeff Green's Commentary:
🔸 “We delivered strong results in Q1, growing revenue 25% YoY. Strategic upgrades from Q4 are driving outperformance.”
🔸 “In a volatile macro environment, marketers are embracing the open internet for growth and differentiation. Kokai enables this shift, positioning The Trade Desk as a key partner in maximizing value beyond walled gardens.”
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Wall St Engine
$EXPE | Expedia Group Q1'25 Earnings Highlights
🔹 Revenue: $2.99B (Est. $3.02B) 😐; UP +3% YoY
🔹 Adj EPS: $0.40 (Est. $0.29) 🟢; UP +90% YoY
🔹 Adj Net Income: $53M (Est. $45.1M) 🟢; UP +81% YoY
🔹 Adj EBITDA: $296M (Est. $269.8M) 🟢; UP +16% YoY
Segment & Product Breakdown:
🔹 Gross Bookings: $31.45B; UP +4% YoY
- B2C: $22.62B; UP +1% YoY
- B2B: $8.84B; UP +14% YoY
🔹 Booked Room Nights: 107.7M; UP +6% YoY
🔹 Booked Air Tickets: 14.8M; UP +4% YoY
🔹 ADR (Average Daily Rate): $213.9; DOWN -1% YoY
Revenue by Product:
🔹 Lodging Revenue: $2.29B; UP +3% YoY
🔹 Air Revenue: $107M; DOWN -7% YoY
🔹 Advertising & Media (EG): $174M; UP +20% YoY
🔹 Advertising & Media (Trivago): $85M; UP +22% YoY
🔹 Other Revenue: $333M; UP +1% YoY
Revenue by Geography:
🔹 U.S. Point of Sale: $1.83B; UP +2% YoY
🔹 Non-U.S. Point of Sale: $1.16B; UP +6% YoY
Other Key Metrics:
🔹 Adj EBITDA Margin: 9.9% (UP +105 bps YoY)
🔹 Net Loss: -$200M (vs. -$135M YoY)
🔹 Free Cash Flow: $2.76B (vs. $2.70B YoY)
🔹 Operating Cash Flow: $2.95B (vs. $2.88B YoY)
Capital Allocation:
🔹 Share Repurchase: $330M during Q1 (1.7M shares)
🔹 Quarterly Dividend Paid: $0.40/share on March 27, 2025
CEO Ariane Gorin’s Commentary:
🔸 “We posted Q1 bookings and revenue within our guidance despite weaker-than-expected U.S. travel demand. Bottom-line performance beat expectations with EBITDA margin expansion. We remain focused on driving margin growth alongside top-line expansion.”
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$EXPE | Expedia Group Q1'25 Earnings Highlights
🔹 Revenue: $2.99B (Est. $3.02B) 😐; UP +3% YoY
🔹 Adj EPS: $0.40 (Est. $0.29) 🟢; UP +90% YoY
🔹 Adj Net Income: $53M (Est. $45.1M) 🟢; UP +81% YoY
🔹 Adj EBITDA: $296M (Est. $269.8M) 🟢; UP +16% YoY
Segment & Product Breakdown:
🔹 Gross Bookings: $31.45B; UP +4% YoY
- B2C: $22.62B; UP +1% YoY
- B2B: $8.84B; UP +14% YoY
🔹 Booked Room Nights: 107.7M; UP +6% YoY
🔹 Booked Air Tickets: 14.8M; UP +4% YoY
🔹 ADR (Average Daily Rate): $213.9; DOWN -1% YoY
Revenue by Product:
🔹 Lodging Revenue: $2.29B; UP +3% YoY
🔹 Air Revenue: $107M; DOWN -7% YoY
🔹 Advertising & Media (EG): $174M; UP +20% YoY
🔹 Advertising & Media (Trivago): $85M; UP +22% YoY
🔹 Other Revenue: $333M; UP +1% YoY
Revenue by Geography:
🔹 U.S. Point of Sale: $1.83B; UP +2% YoY
🔹 Non-U.S. Point of Sale: $1.16B; UP +6% YoY
Other Key Metrics:
🔹 Adj EBITDA Margin: 9.9% (UP +105 bps YoY)
🔹 Net Loss: -$200M (vs. -$135M YoY)
🔹 Free Cash Flow: $2.76B (vs. $2.70B YoY)
🔹 Operating Cash Flow: $2.95B (vs. $2.88B YoY)
Capital Allocation:
🔹 Share Repurchase: $330M during Q1 (1.7M shares)
🔹 Quarterly Dividend Paid: $0.40/share on March 27, 2025
CEO Ariane Gorin’s Commentary:
🔸 “We posted Q1 bookings and revenue within our guidance despite weaker-than-expected U.S. travel demand. Bottom-line performance beat expectations with EBITDA margin expansion. We remain focused on driving margin growth alongside top-line expansion.”
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Wall St Engine
$PINS | Pinterest Q1'25 Earnings Highlights
🔹 Revenue: $855M (Est. $846.6M) 🟢; +16% YoY
🔹 Adj EPS: $0.23 (Est. $0.26) 🔴
🔹 MAUs: 570M (Est. 563.9M) 🟢; +10% YoY
Q2'25 Outlook
🔹 Revenue: $960M–$980M (Est. $965.4M) 🟡
🔹 Adjusted EBITDA: $217M–$237M (Est. $233.06M) 🟡
Q1 Segment & Regional Performance
🔹 U.S. & Canada Revenue: $663M; UP +12% YoY
🔹 Europe Revenue: $147M; UP +24% YoY
🔹 Rest of World Revenue: $45M; UP +49% YoY
User Metrics
🔹 Global MAUs: 570M (Est. 563.9M) 🟢; UP +10% YoY
🔹 U.S. & Canada MAUs: 102M; UP +4% YoY
🔹 Europe MAUs: 148M; UP +5% YoY
🔹 Rest of World MAUs: 320M; UP +14% YoY
ARPU (Average Revenue Per User)
🔹 Global ARPU: $1.52; UP +5% YoY
🔹 U.S. & Canada ARPU: $6.54; UP +8% YoY
🔹 Europe ARPU: $1.00; UP +17% YoY
🔹 Rest of World ARPU: $0.14; UP +29% YoY
Other Metrics:
🔹 Adj EBITDA: $171.6M; UP +36% YoY
🔹 Adj EBITDA Margin: 20% vs. 17% YoY
🔹 Net Income: $8.92M (vs. -$24.81M YoY)
🔹 Operating Cash Flow: $363.7M; UP +2% YoY
🔹 Free Cash Flow: $356.4M; UP +4% YoY
CEO Bill Ready's Commentary
🔸 "Our strong results in the first quarter demonstrate continued momentum in revenue, user growth and engagement."
🔸 "As the macroeconomic and digital ad landscape evolves, our strategy and consistent execution has made Pinterest more resilient than ever."
🔸 "Our AI advancements are helping users take action and make more intentional shopping decisions."
🔸 "We’re driving performance for advertisers and winning market share, giving us a solid foundation for long-term, sustainable growth."
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$PINS | Pinterest Q1'25 Earnings Highlights
🔹 Revenue: $855M (Est. $846.6M) 🟢; +16% YoY
🔹 Adj EPS: $0.23 (Est. $0.26) 🔴
🔹 MAUs: 570M (Est. 563.9M) 🟢; +10% YoY
Q2'25 Outlook
🔹 Revenue: $960M–$980M (Est. $965.4M) 🟡
🔹 Adjusted EBITDA: $217M–$237M (Est. $233.06M) 🟡
Q1 Segment & Regional Performance
🔹 U.S. & Canada Revenue: $663M; UP +12% YoY
🔹 Europe Revenue: $147M; UP +24% YoY
🔹 Rest of World Revenue: $45M; UP +49% YoY
User Metrics
🔹 Global MAUs: 570M (Est. 563.9M) 🟢; UP +10% YoY
🔹 U.S. & Canada MAUs: 102M; UP +4% YoY
🔹 Europe MAUs: 148M; UP +5% YoY
🔹 Rest of World MAUs: 320M; UP +14% YoY
ARPU (Average Revenue Per User)
🔹 Global ARPU: $1.52; UP +5% YoY
🔹 U.S. & Canada ARPU: $6.54; UP +8% YoY
🔹 Europe ARPU: $1.00; UP +17% YoY
🔹 Rest of World ARPU: $0.14; UP +29% YoY
Other Metrics:
🔹 Adj EBITDA: $171.6M; UP +36% YoY
🔹 Adj EBITDA Margin: 20% vs. 17% YoY
🔹 Net Income: $8.92M (vs. -$24.81M YoY)
🔹 Operating Cash Flow: $363.7M; UP +2% YoY
🔹 Free Cash Flow: $356.4M; UP +4% YoY
CEO Bill Ready's Commentary
🔸 "Our strong results in the first quarter demonstrate continued momentum in revenue, user growth and engagement."
🔸 "As the macroeconomic and digital ad landscape evolves, our strategy and consistent execution has made Pinterest more resilient than ever."
🔸 "Our AI advancements are helping users take action and make more intentional shopping decisions."
🔸 "We’re driving performance for advertisers and winning market share, giving us a solid foundation for long-term, sustainable growth."
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Wall St Engine
$DBX | Dropbox Q1'25 Earnings Highlights
🔹 Revenue: $624.7M (Est. $620.1M) 🟢; DOWN -1.0% YoY
🔹 Adj. EPS: $0.70 (Est. $0.63) 🟢; UP +21% YoY
🔹 Adj. Net Income: $207.1M (Est. $187.1M) 🟢
🔹 ARR: $2.552B; DOWN -0.2% YoY
🔹 Paying Users: 18.16M (Flat YoY)
🔹 ARPU: $139.26 (vs. $139.59 YoY)
Other Metrics:
🔹 GAAP Operating Margin: 29.4% (vs. 22.7% YoY)
🔹 Adj. Operating Margin: 41.7% (vs. 36.5% YoY)
🔹 Gross Margin: 81.3% (vs. 83.2% YoY)
🔹 Free Cash Flow: $153.7M; DOWN -8% YoY
CEO Drew Houston's Commentary
🔸 "We’ve had a productive start to the year improving the Dash user experience and launching features to solve key customer pain points."
🔸 "Despite a fluid macro backdrop, we’re focused on execution, efficiency, and capitalizing on Dash to create long-term value."
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$DBX | Dropbox Q1'25 Earnings Highlights
🔹 Revenue: $624.7M (Est. $620.1M) 🟢; DOWN -1.0% YoY
🔹 Adj. EPS: $0.70 (Est. $0.63) 🟢; UP +21% YoY
🔹 Adj. Net Income: $207.1M (Est. $187.1M) 🟢
🔹 ARR: $2.552B; DOWN -0.2% YoY
🔹 Paying Users: 18.16M (Flat YoY)
🔹 ARPU: $139.26 (vs. $139.59 YoY)
Other Metrics:
🔹 GAAP Operating Margin: 29.4% (vs. 22.7% YoY)
🔹 Adj. Operating Margin: 41.7% (vs. 36.5% YoY)
🔹 Gross Margin: 81.3% (vs. 83.2% YoY)
🔹 Free Cash Flow: $153.7M; DOWN -8% YoY
CEO Drew Houston's Commentary
🔸 "We’ve had a productive start to the year improving the Dash user experience and launching features to solve key customer pain points."
🔸 "Despite a fluid macro backdrop, we’re focused on execution, efficiency, and capitalizing on Dash to create long-term value."
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Wall St Engine
$AFRM | Affirm Q3'25 Earnings Highlights
🔹 Revenue: $783.1M (Est. $781.7M) 🟢; UP +36% YoY
🔹 EPS: $0.01 (Est. -$0.01) 🟢
🔹 Adj. Oper Income: $173.7M; UP +$95M YoY
🔹 Adj. Oper Margin: 22.2%; UP +860 bps YoY
🔹 RLTC: $352.6M; UP +53% YoY
🔹 GMV: $8.6B; UP +36% YoY
Guidance
🔹 FY25 Revenue: $3.163B–$3.193B (Est. $3.177B) 🟡
🔹 FY25 GMV: $35.7B–$36.0B
🔹 Q4 Revenue: $815M–$845M (Est. $841.6M) 🟡
🔹 Q4 GMV: $9.4B–$9.7B
🔹 Q4 Adj. Operating Margin: 23%–25%
Q1 Segment & Operational Metrics
🔹 Affirm Card GMV: $807M; UP +115% YoY
🔹 Direct-to-Consumer GMV: $2.4B; UP +50% YoY
🔹 Monthly 0% APR GMV: +44% YoY (13% of GMV, highest in 2 years)
🔹 Total Transactions: 31.3M; UP +46% YoY
🔹 Active Consumers: 21.9M; UP +23% YoY
🔹 Cardholders: 1.9M+; more than doubled YoY
🔹 Active Merchants: 358K; UP +23% YoY
🔹 Repeat Usage Rate: 94%
Credit & Capital Metrics
🔹 Avg. Funding Cost: 7.1%; DOWN -50 bps YoY
🔹 Loans Sold: UP +72% YoY
🔹 30+ Day Delinquency Rate: 2.4%; DOWN -5 bps QoQ
🔹 Capital Liquidity: $2.1B (cash + securities)
🔹 Funding Capacity: $23.3B (supports >$50B in annual GMV)
🔹 Equity Capital Required Ratio: 4.6%
Strategic & Product Updates
🔸 Extended Shopify partnership through June 2028 (Canada beta live, UK next)
🔸 Signed new deals with Adyen, JPMorgan Payments, and Costco
🔸 Announced 10-year UATP partnership for scaling travel offerings
🔸 Launched AI-driven real-time merchant dispute adjudication
🔸 Dollar-based net expansion: >115%; Merchant renewal rate: >97%
Management Commentary
🔸 Affirm outpacing peers in GMV growth and RLTC efficiency
🔸 Rapid growth in merchant-funded 0% APR adoption
🔸 Affirm Card in-store GMV up over 150% YoY
🔸 Confident in macro resilience via flexible credit and AI-based risk models
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$AFRM | Affirm Q3'25 Earnings Highlights
🔹 Revenue: $783.1M (Est. $781.7M) 🟢; UP +36% YoY
🔹 EPS: $0.01 (Est. -$0.01) 🟢
🔹 Adj. Oper Income: $173.7M; UP +$95M YoY
🔹 Adj. Oper Margin: 22.2%; UP +860 bps YoY
🔹 RLTC: $352.6M; UP +53% YoY
🔹 GMV: $8.6B; UP +36% YoY
Guidance
🔹 FY25 Revenue: $3.163B–$3.193B (Est. $3.177B) 🟡
🔹 FY25 GMV: $35.7B–$36.0B
🔹 Q4 Revenue: $815M–$845M (Est. $841.6M) 🟡
🔹 Q4 GMV: $9.4B–$9.7B
🔹 Q4 Adj. Operating Margin: 23%–25%
Q1 Segment & Operational Metrics
🔹 Affirm Card GMV: $807M; UP +115% YoY
🔹 Direct-to-Consumer GMV: $2.4B; UP +50% YoY
🔹 Monthly 0% APR GMV: +44% YoY (13% of GMV, highest in 2 years)
🔹 Total Transactions: 31.3M; UP +46% YoY
🔹 Active Consumers: 21.9M; UP +23% YoY
🔹 Cardholders: 1.9M+; more than doubled YoY
🔹 Active Merchants: 358K; UP +23% YoY
🔹 Repeat Usage Rate: 94%
Credit & Capital Metrics
🔹 Avg. Funding Cost: 7.1%; DOWN -50 bps YoY
🔹 Loans Sold: UP +72% YoY
🔹 30+ Day Delinquency Rate: 2.4%; DOWN -5 bps QoQ
🔹 Capital Liquidity: $2.1B (cash + securities)
🔹 Funding Capacity: $23.3B (supports >$50B in annual GMV)
🔹 Equity Capital Required Ratio: 4.6%
Strategic & Product Updates
🔸 Extended Shopify partnership through June 2028 (Canada beta live, UK next)
🔸 Signed new deals with Adyen, JPMorgan Payments, and Costco
🔸 Announced 10-year UATP partnership for scaling travel offerings
🔸 Launched AI-driven real-time merchant dispute adjudication
🔸 Dollar-based net expansion: >115%; Merchant renewal rate: >97%
Management Commentary
🔸 Affirm outpacing peers in GMV growth and RLTC efficiency
🔸 Rapid growth in merchant-funded 0% APR adoption
🔸 Affirm Card in-store GMV up over 150% YoY
🔸 Confident in macro resilience via flexible credit and AI-based risk models
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Wall St Engine
$DKNG | DraftKings Q1'25 Earnings Highlights
🔹 Revenue: $1.41B (Est. $1.44B) 🔴; UP +20% YoY
🔹 Adj. EPS: $0.12 (Est. $0.22) 🔴
🔹 MUPs: 4.3M; UP +28% YoY
🔹 Avg. Revenue per MUP: $108; -5% YoY
FY25 Guide (Lowered)
🔹 Revenue: $6.20B–$6.40B (Prior: $6.30B–$6.60B) 🔴; vs. Est. $7.61B
🔹 Adj. EBITDA: $800M–$900M (Prior: $900M–$1.0B)
Product & Geographic Highlights
🔹 Live with mobile sports betting in 25 U.S. states + D.C. (~49% of U.S. population)
🔹 iGaming live in 5 states (~11% of U.S. population)
🔹 Active in Ontario, Canada (~40% of Canadian population)
🔹 Missouri legalization passed; launch pending regulatory approval
Management Commentary
🔸 CEO Jason Robins: “If not for customer-friendly outcomes in March, we would be raising guidance. Product enhancements are driving outperformance and strong customer engagement.”
🔸 CFO Alan Ellingson: “Healthy balance sheet supported share repurchases in Q1.”
🔹 Share Repurchase: 3.7M shares in Q1 under existing buyback program
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$DKNG | DraftKings Q1'25 Earnings Highlights
🔹 Revenue: $1.41B (Est. $1.44B) 🔴; UP +20% YoY
🔹 Adj. EPS: $0.12 (Est. $0.22) 🔴
🔹 MUPs: 4.3M; UP +28% YoY
🔹 Avg. Revenue per MUP: $108; -5% YoY
FY25 Guide (Lowered)
🔹 Revenue: $6.20B–$6.40B (Prior: $6.30B–$6.60B) 🔴; vs. Est. $7.61B
🔹 Adj. EBITDA: $800M–$900M (Prior: $900M–$1.0B)
Product & Geographic Highlights
🔹 Live with mobile sports betting in 25 U.S. states + D.C. (~49% of U.S. population)
🔹 iGaming live in 5 states (~11% of U.S. population)
🔹 Active in Ontario, Canada (~40% of Canadian population)
🔹 Missouri legalization passed; launch pending regulatory approval
Management Commentary
🔸 CEO Jason Robins: “If not for customer-friendly outcomes in March, we would be raising guidance. Product enhancements are driving outperformance and strong customer engagement.”
🔸 CFO Alan Ellingson: “Healthy balance sheet supported share repurchases in Q1.”
🔹 Share Repurchase: 3.7M shares in Q1 under existing buyback program
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