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$PTON | Peloton Q3'25 Earnings Highlights
🔹 Adj EPS: -$0.12 (Est. -$0.07) 🔴
🔹 Revenue: $624M (Est. $623.0M) 🟢; DOWN -13% YoY
🔹 Adj EBITDA: $89.4M (Est. $85M) 🟢; UP +1,434% YoY
Full-Year FY25 Guidance (Updated)
🔹 Revenue: $2.455B–$2.47B (Est. $2.46B) 🟡
🔹 Adj EBITDA: $330M–$350M (Prior: $300M–$350M) 🟢
🔹 Connected Fitness Subscriptions: 2.77M–2.79M (Prior: 2.75M)
🔹 App Subscriptions: 0.54M–0.55M (DOWN -12% YoY)
🔹 Total Gross Margin: 50.0% (vs. 44.7% FY24); +530 bps YoY
🔹 Free Cash Flow: ~$250M (Including ~$5M headwind from tariffs)
Segment Performance
Subscription
🔹 Revenue: $418.5M; DOWN -4% YoY
🔹 Gross Margin: 69.0% (vs. 68.1% YoY)
🔹 Contribution Margin: 72.9% (vs. 72.3% YoY)
🔹 Ending Paid Connected Fitness Subscriptions: 2.88M; DOWN -6% YoY
🔹 Avg Monthly Churn: 1.2% (Flat YoY)
Connected Fitness Products
🔹 Revenue: $205.5M; DOWN -27% YoY
🔹 Gross Margin: 14.3% (vs. 4.2% YoY)
Other Key Metrics:
🔹 Free Cash Flow: $94.7M
🔹 Operating Expenses: $350.5M; DOWN -23% YoY
🔹 Net Loss: -$47.7M; Improvement from -$167.3M YoY
Strategic Updates
🔸 Subscription growth is the core strategy, offsetting hardware softness
🔸 New CEO Peter Stern (ex-Apple & Ford) is executing a pivot to software and recurring revenue
🔸 Marketing cut -46% YoY, yet hardware sales decline was less severe at -27%
🔸 300 bps YoY increase in men joining Peloton
🔸 70,000 members used newly launched kettlebell training
🔸 Nearly 500,000 users started AI-powered Personalized Plans
🔸 Expanded reach via Hilton hotels, Amazon, and a UT Austin campus studio
🔸 International expansion supported by AI-driven subtitles and localized campaigns
CEO Peter Stern Commentary
🔸 “We delivered at the high end or above on all key Q3 metrics. Our shift toward subscriptions is working, and our cost structure is leaner.”
🔸 “Tariff risk is real, but manageable. We’re well-positioned to lead in fitness and wellness.”
🔸 “Excited about FY26 plans. Strategy is centered on improving outcomes, growing lifetime value, and operating with excellence.”
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$PTON | Peloton Q3'25 Earnings Highlights
🔹 Adj EPS: -$0.12 (Est. -$0.07) 🔴
🔹 Revenue: $624M (Est. $623.0M) 🟢; DOWN -13% YoY
🔹 Adj EBITDA: $89.4M (Est. $85M) 🟢; UP +1,434% YoY
Full-Year FY25 Guidance (Updated)
🔹 Revenue: $2.455B–$2.47B (Est. $2.46B) 🟡
🔹 Adj EBITDA: $330M–$350M (Prior: $300M–$350M) 🟢
🔹 Connected Fitness Subscriptions: 2.77M–2.79M (Prior: 2.75M)
🔹 App Subscriptions: 0.54M–0.55M (DOWN -12% YoY)
🔹 Total Gross Margin: 50.0% (vs. 44.7% FY24); +530 bps YoY
🔹 Free Cash Flow: ~$250M (Including ~$5M headwind from tariffs)
Segment Performance
Subscription
🔹 Revenue: $418.5M; DOWN -4% YoY
🔹 Gross Margin: 69.0% (vs. 68.1% YoY)
🔹 Contribution Margin: 72.9% (vs. 72.3% YoY)
🔹 Ending Paid Connected Fitness Subscriptions: 2.88M; DOWN -6% YoY
🔹 Avg Monthly Churn: 1.2% (Flat YoY)
Connected Fitness Products
🔹 Revenue: $205.5M; DOWN -27% YoY
🔹 Gross Margin: 14.3% (vs. 4.2% YoY)
Other Key Metrics:
🔹 Free Cash Flow: $94.7M
🔹 Operating Expenses: $350.5M; DOWN -23% YoY
🔹 Net Loss: -$47.7M; Improvement from -$167.3M YoY
Strategic Updates
🔸 Subscription growth is the core strategy, offsetting hardware softness
🔸 New CEO Peter Stern (ex-Apple & Ford) is executing a pivot to software and recurring revenue
🔸 Marketing cut -46% YoY, yet hardware sales decline was less severe at -27%
🔸 300 bps YoY increase in men joining Peloton
🔸 70,000 members used newly launched kettlebell training
🔸 Nearly 500,000 users started AI-powered Personalized Plans
🔸 Expanded reach via Hilton hotels, Amazon, and a UT Austin campus studio
🔸 International expansion supported by AI-driven subtitles and localized campaigns
CEO Peter Stern Commentary
🔸 “We delivered at the high end or above on all key Q3 metrics. Our shift toward subscriptions is working, and our cost structure is leaner.”
🔸 “Tariff risk is real, but manageable. We’re well-positioned to lead in fitness and wellness.”
🔸 “Excited about FY26 plans. Strategy is centered on improving outcomes, growing lifetime value, and operating with excellence.”
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Wall St Engine
CHINA'S XI:
CHINA, RUSSIA SHOULD BE TRUE FRIENDS OF 'STEEL'
CHINA, RUSSIA SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEEPEN PRACTICAL COOPERATION IN VARIOUS FIELDS, LAY A SOLID FOUNDATION FOR COMPREHENSIVE STRATEGIC COOPERATION
WE SHOULD WORK TOGETHER IN HARMONY AND BE LEADERS IN GLOBAL GOVERNANCE
CHINA, RUSSIA SHOULD PUSH BILATERAL RELATIONS TO BE MORE MATURE AND RESILIENT
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CHINA'S XI:
CHINA, RUSSIA SHOULD BE TRUE FRIENDS OF 'STEEL'
CHINA, RUSSIA SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEEPEN PRACTICAL COOPERATION IN VARIOUS FIELDS, LAY A SOLID FOUNDATION FOR COMPREHENSIVE STRATEGIC COOPERATION
WE SHOULD WORK TOGETHER IN HARMONY AND BE LEADERS IN GLOBAL GOVERNANCE
CHINA, RUSSIA SHOULD PUSH BILATERAL RELATIONS TO BE MORE MATURE AND RESILIENT
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Wall St Engine
Here’s what analysts are saying after the $GOOGL selloff tied to Eddy Cue’s AI search comments:
Wells Fargo (Equal Weight, PT $175): "The time to debate changes in search behavior has come to a close... Expect Google to more aggressively exploit its distribution advantage, pushing AI Search in the main search bar. Expect disruption to follow, but better sooner than later."
Bank of America (Buy, PT $200): "Apple commentary reflects changing search landscape; queries are still growing." Cue noted “increasing usage of new Gen-AI platforms,” and that “AI search providers could eventually replace traditional engines like Google.”
Citi (Buy, PT $200): "Competition in the Search landscape is at its highest level in potentially…ever." But: "We are focused on GOOGL’s newer products gaining GenAI share—Gemini, AI Overviews & AI Mode." Also highlights “AI Max”, enabling “2X higher conversion rate at 31% lower cost” for clients like L'Oréal.
Morgan Stanley (Overweight, PT $185): "Sentiment has (again) troughed. Shares now trade at 15x FY26 $10 EPS estimate—a trough multiple and tactically a strong buying opportunity."
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Here’s what analysts are saying after the $GOOGL selloff tied to Eddy Cue’s AI search comments:
Wells Fargo (Equal Weight, PT $175): "The time to debate changes in search behavior has come to a close... Expect Google to more aggressively exploit its distribution advantage, pushing AI Search in the main search bar. Expect disruption to follow, but better sooner than later."
Bank of America (Buy, PT $200): "Apple commentary reflects changing search landscape; queries are still growing." Cue noted “increasing usage of new Gen-AI platforms,” and that “AI search providers could eventually replace traditional engines like Google.”
Citi (Buy, PT $200): "Competition in the Search landscape is at its highest level in potentially…ever." But: "We are focused on GOOGL’s newer products gaining GenAI share—Gemini, AI Overviews & AI Mode." Also highlights “AI Max”, enabling “2X higher conversion rate at 31% lower cost” for clients like L'Oréal.
Morgan Stanley (Overweight, PT $185): "Sentiment has (again) troughed. Shares now trade at 15x FY26 $10 EPS estimate—a trough multiple and tactically a strong buying opportunity."
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$SHOP Q1 Earnings 🚨
• Revenue $2.36B vs Est. $2.33B
• EPS $0.25 vs Est. $0.26
• GMV $74.8B vs Est. $74.8B
Shares are down -9% pre-market https://t.co/rDIluj049D
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$SHOP Q1 Earnings 🚨
• Revenue $2.36B vs Est. $2.33B
• EPS $0.25 vs Est. $0.26
• GMV $74.8B vs Est. $74.8B
Shares are down -9% pre-market https://t.co/rDIluj049D
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Wall St Engine
The EU 🇪🇺 just dropped a draft list targeting $107B worth of U.S. goods with potential tariffs if trade talks break down—including planes, cars, bourbon, meat, chemicals, metals, and beer. They’re also eyeing $4.4B in export curbs on scrap metals and chemicals. EU says it’s “fully committed” to finding a deal, but clearly preparing to hit back.
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The EU 🇪🇺 just dropped a draft list targeting $107B worth of U.S. goods with potential tariffs if trade talks break down—including planes, cars, bourbon, meat, chemicals, metals, and beer. They’re also eyeing $4.4B in export curbs on scrap metals and chemicals. EU says it’s “fully committed” to finding a deal, but clearly preparing to hit back.
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Bill Gates is pledging 99% of his $168B fortune to the Gates Foundation, which will now close in 2045.
That’s ~$107B more going toward global health, education, and poverty over the next 20 years. The foundation will spend ~$200B in total before winding down. https://t.co/ofyoJNR1LN
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Bill Gates is pledging 99% of his $168B fortune to the Gates Foundation, which will now close in 2045.
That’s ~$107B more going toward global health, education, and poverty over the next 20 years. The foundation will spend ~$200B in total before winding down. https://t.co/ofyoJNR1LN
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Wall St Engine
$NVAX | Novavax Q1'25 Earnings Highlights
🔹 Revenue: $667M vs. $344M est. 🟢
🔹 EPS: $2.93 vs. $0.71 est. 🟢
Guidance:
🔹 FY25 Revenue: $975M–$1.025B (Est. $724M) 🟢
🔹 FY25 R&D + SG&A: $475M–$525M (Reiterated)
🔹 No guidance yet for Sanofi royalties/supply sales
Highlights:
🔸 FDA feedback suggests COVID-19 BLA approvable upon PMC alignment
🔸 $175M milestone from Sanofi triggered by BLA approval
🔸 SHIELD-Utah study: ~39% fewer side effects vs. mRNA vaccine
🔸 Expanded partnership with Takeda; $20M upfront + milestones
🔸 Raised FY25 revenue framework from $300–$350M to $975M–$1.025B
🔸 $519M net income in Q1; $603M recognized from terminated APAs
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$NVAX | Novavax Q1'25 Earnings Highlights
🔹 Revenue: $667M vs. $344M est. 🟢
🔹 EPS: $2.93 vs. $0.71 est. 🟢
Guidance:
🔹 FY25 Revenue: $975M–$1.025B (Est. $724M) 🟢
🔹 FY25 R&D + SG&A: $475M–$525M (Reiterated)
🔹 No guidance yet for Sanofi royalties/supply sales
Highlights:
🔸 FDA feedback suggests COVID-19 BLA approvable upon PMC alignment
🔸 $175M milestone from Sanofi triggered by BLA approval
🔸 SHIELD-Utah study: ~39% fewer side effects vs. mRNA vaccine
🔸 Expanded partnership with Takeda; $20M upfront + milestones
🔸 Raised FY25 revenue framework from $300–$350M to $975M–$1.025B
🔸 $519M net income in Q1; $603M recognized from terminated APAs
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Coinbase $COIN is buying Deribit—the world’s top bitcoin and ether options exchange—for $2.9B in cash and stock. It’s Coinbase’s biggest deal yet. https://t.co/OTyxZozpRX
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Coinbase $COIN is buying Deribit—the world’s top bitcoin and ether options exchange—for $2.9B in cash and stock. It’s Coinbase’s biggest deal yet. https://t.co/OTyxZozpRX
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