⁠Wall St Engine
S&P 500 Closing Bell Heatmap (May 07, 2025)

$SPY +0.44% 🟩
$QQQ +0.39% 🟩
$DJI +0.70% 🟩
$IWM +0.32% 🟩

S&P 500 Opening Bell Heatmap (May 07, 2025)

$SPY +0.21% 🟩
$QQQ flat ⬜
$DJI +0.39% 🟩
$IWM +0.47% 🟩 - Wall St Engine
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⁠Investing visuals
$AXON Q1 Earnings 🚨

• Revenue $603M vs $586M Est.
• EPS $1.41 vs. $1.24 Est.
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⁠Wall St Engine
$MELI | MercadoLibre Q1'25 Earnings Highlights

🔹 Revenue: $5.93B (Est. $5.52B) 🟢; UP +37% YoY | +64% FX-neutral
🔹 EPS: $9.74 (Est. $8.27) 🟢
🔹 TPV: $58.3B; UP +43% YoY |
🔹 GMV: $13.3B; UP +17% YoY
🔹 Items Sold: 492M; UP +28% YoY
🔹 Unique Active Buyers: 67M; UP +25% YoY
🔹 Fintech Monthly Active Users: 64M; UP +31% YoY

Segment Highlights
Commerce
🔸 GMV: $13.3B; +17% USD | +40% FXN
🔹 Brazil GMV: +10% USD | +30% FXN
🔹 Mexico GMV: +14% USD | +23% FXN
🔹 Argentina GMV: +77% USD | +126% FXN
🔹 Items Sold: +28% YoY; led by +65% YoY in Supermarket category
🔹 Unique Active Buyers: 67M; +25% YoY
🔸 Fulfillment penetration in Brazil: surpassed 60% in March
🔸 Cost per order declined YoY in Brazil, Mexico, Chile

Advertising
🔹 Revenue Growth: +50% YoY FX-neutral
🔸 Display share of Ads revenue up nearly 10ppts YoY
🔸 Mercado Play app launched on smart TVs—70M+ addressable devices

Fintech / Mercado Pago
🔹 TPV: $58.3B; +43% USD | +72% FXN
🔹 TPV Acquiring: $40.3B; +32% USD | +59% FXN
🔹 Credit Portfolio: $7.8B; +75% YoY
🔸 Brazil contributed +$800M QoQ to credit portfolio
🔹 15–90 Day NPL: 8.2%; stable YoY
🔹 NIMAL Spread: 22.7% (vs. 31.5% YoY); QoQ contraction due to seasonality and credit mix
🔸 Strong ecosystem stickiness from deposits and credit use
🔸 New merchant savings pot in Brazil pays 100% of benchmark rate

Geographic Performance (FX-neutral Revenue Growth YoY)
🔹 Argentina: +184%
🔹 Mexico: +51%
🔹 Brazil: +41%
🔹 Commerce Segment: +57%
🔹 Fintech Segment: +73%
🔹 Total MELI: +64%

Other Metrics
🔹 Income from Operations: $763M; UP +45% YoY
🔹 Operating Margin: 12.9%
🔹 Net Income: $494M; Margin 8.3%
🔹 Free Cash Flow: $7M
🔹 CapEx: $256M
🔹 Depreciation & Amortization: $172M
🔹 Net Payment Transactions: 3.44B; +42% YoY
🔹 Acquiring TPV Growth:
  🔸 Brazil: ~30% FXN
  🔸 Mexico: ~50% FXN
  🔸 Argentina: +144% FXN | +93% USD

Management Commentary
🔸 “Argentina’s rebound drove record growth, balancing strategic investments in Brazil and Mexico.”
🔸 “We are scaling Supermarket and Payments, improving UX, and reinforcing ecosystem flywheels.”
🔸 “The launch of Mercado Play and expansion of Display Ads strengthen our long-term ad monetization roadmap.”
🔸 “Credit growth remains robust and disciplined, with a stable risk profile and improving first-payment default rates in Brazil.”
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⁠Investing visuals
$MELI Crushed Q1 Earnings 🚨

• Revenue $5.93B vs $5.52B Est.
• EPS $9.74 vs. $8.27 Est.
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⁠Wall St Engine
$ARM Q4'25 Earnings Highlights

🔹 Revenue: $1.24B (Est. $1.23B) 🟢; +34% YoY
🔹 Adj. EPS: $0.55 (Est. $0.53) 🟢; +53% YoY
🔹 Adj. Oper Income: $655M (Est. $621.8M) 🟢; +68% YoY

FY26 Guide
🔹 Revenue: $3.94B–$4.04B (Est. $4.91B) 🔴
🔹 Adj. EPS: $1.56–$1.64 (Est. $2.03) 🔴

Q1'26 Guidance
🔹 Revenue: $1.00B–$1.10B (Est. $1.10B) 🟡
🔹 Adj. EPS: $0.30–$0.38 (Est. $0.42) 🔴
🔹 Adj. OpEx: ~$625M (vs. $566M in Q4 FY25)

Other Key Metrics:
🔹 Royalty Revenue: $607M (Est. $567.7M) 🟢; +18% YoY
🔹 Licensing & Other Revenue: $634M; +53% YoY
🔹 Adj. Gross Margin: 98.4% (vs. 97.2% YoY)
🔹 Adj. Operating Margin: 52.8% (vs. 42.1% YoY)
🔹 Operating Cash Flow: $258M
🔹 Free Cash Flow (Non-GAAP): $163M
🔹 Cash & Short-Term Investments: $2.83B
🔹 R&D Headcount: +18% YoY (6,943 engineers)

CEO Rene Haas Commentary
🔸 “Arm delivered record-breaking results for both Q4 and the full fiscal year. We surpassed $1B in revenue for the first time in a quarter, driven by broad deployment of our CSS platforms across AI data center, cloud, and mobile.”
🔸 “AI is accelerating demand for energy-efficient compute. Arm is uniquely positioned to lead this shift from cloud to edge, as more software is being written first for Arm-based chips.”

Strategic & Platform Highlights
🔹 Smartphone royalty revenue +30% YoY despite <2% unit growth, driven by armv9 adoption
🔹 major wins: nvidia grace blackwell, google axion, microsoft cobalt 100
🔹 first css license signed in automotive (ev platform)
🔹 flexible access customers: 314 (up from 222 yoy)
🔹 github copilot + arm developer ai extension launched
🔹 over 8b kleidi ai installs
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⁠Wall St Engine
$AXON Enterprise Q1 Earnings Highlights

🔹 Revenue: $604M (Est. $586M) 🟢; +34% YoY
🔹 Adj. EPS: $1.41 (Est. $1.24) 🟢
🔹 Adj. EBITDA: $155M (Est. $138M) 🟢

FY25 Guidance
🔹 Revenue: $2.65B (Est. $2.62B) 🟢
🔹 Adj. EBITDA: $668M (Est. $660M) 🟢
🔹 CapEx: $160M–$180M

Q1 Business Segment:
🔹 Axon Cloud Revenue: $263M; +39% YoY
🔹 ARR: $1.1B; +34% YoY
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⁠Wall St Engine
$CVNA | Carvana Q1'25 Earnings Highlights

🔹 Revenue: $4.23B (Est. $3.98B) 🟢; +38% YoY
🔹 Adj. EBITDA: $488M (Est. $434.3M) 🟢; Margin: 11.5% 🟢
🔹 Retail Units Sold: 133,898; +46% YoY 🟢

Q2'25 Outlook
🔹 Expects sequential increase in: Retail Units Sold & Adj EBITDA
🔹 Guidance implies new all-time company records on both metrics

Q1 Operational Highlights
🔸 All-time record in Retail Units Sold
🔸 Record Net Income and Adjusted EBITDA
🔸 Highest NPS score in nearly 3 years

Strategic Long-Term Target
🔹 New Management Objective: 3 million retail units/year at 13.5% Adjusted EBITDA margin within 5–10 years

CEO Commentary – Ernie Garcia
🔸 “In Q1, Carvana set a new record for retail units while also driving record profitability and hitting our highest customer net promoter score in nearly three years.”
🔸 “We are incredibly well positioned... with very clear visibility to even stronger financial performance, much larger scales, and even better customer experiences.”
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⁠Wall St Engine
$APP | AppLovin Q1'25 Earnings Highlights

🔹 Revenue: $1.48B (Est. $1.38B) 🟢; +40% YoY
🔹 Adj. EPS: $1.67 (Est. $1.42) 🟢
🔹 Adj. EBITDA: $1.01B; +83% YoY

Strategic Update
🔸 Divestiture: AppLovin entered into a definitive agreement to sell its mobile gaming business to Tripledot Studios for: $400M in cash; ~20% ownership stake in Tripledot common equity; Deal expected to close in Q2 2025, subject to regulatory approvals

Q1 Advertising
🔹 Revenue: $1.16B; +71% YoY
🔹 Adj. EBITDA: $943M; +92% YoY
🔹 Margin: 81%

Apps (Gaming)
🔹 Revenue: $325M; -14% YoY
🔹 Adj. EBITDA: $62M; +9% YoY

🔸 Focus shift continues toward being a pure-play marketing and ad tech platform

Cash Flow & Capital Returns
🔹 Operating Cash Flow: $832M
🔹 Free Cash Flow: $826M
🔹 Share Repurchase: 3.4M shares repurchased in Q1 for $1.2B
🔹 Total Shares Outstanding: 338M (Class A + B)

CEO Commentary (Implied)
🔸 Exceptional growth driven by ad platform strength and margin expansion
🔸 Strategic realignment solidifies AppLovin as a high-growth, high-margin software business post divestiture
🔸 Capital returns reflect strong confidence in long-term trajectory
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⁠Quiver Quantitative
BREAKING: The Quiver Quantitative site just made an appearance in Congress.

Jasmine Crockett attacked Marjorie Taylor Greene for Palantir stock purchases.

See here: https://t.co/FEYMEaOZiR
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⁠Wall St Engine
$BROS | Dutch Bros Q1'25 Earnings Highlights

🔹 Revenue: $355.2M (Est. $344.4M) 🟢; +29% YoY
🔹 Adj. EPS: $0.14 (Est. $0.11) 🟢
🔹 Oper. Income: $31.1M (Est. $26.8M) 🟢
🔹 Adj. EBITDA: $62.9M; +19.7% YoY

FY25 Guide
🔹 Revenue: $1.555B–$1.575B (Est. $1.584B) 🔴
🔹 Adj. EBITDA: $265M–$275M 🟡
🔹 Same Shop Sales Growth: 2%–4%
🔹 CapEx: $240M–$260M
🔹 Shop Openings: At least 160 total system shops

Q1 Same Shop Sales & Traffic
🔹 System Same Shop Sales: +4.7% YoY
🔹 System Transaction Growth: +1.3% YoY
🔹 Company-Operated Same Shop Sales: +6.9% YoY
🔹 Company-Operated Transaction Growth: +3.7% YoY

Q1 Operational Highlights
🔹 Total Shops Opened in Q1: 30 (25 Company-Operated)
🔹 Company-Operated Revenue: $326.4M; +31.6% YoY
🔹 Company-Operated Gross Margin: 21.9% (flat YoY)
🔹 Company-Operated Contribution Margin: 29.4% (DOWN -40 bps YoY)
🔹 Adj. SG&A: $53.5M (15.1% of revenue) vs. $40.4M YoY (14.7%)

CEO Christine Barone
🔸 “We started 2025 on a high note with 29% revenue growth and accelerating transaction trends. Our brand continues to resonate, and we’re confident in our long-term growth roadmap.”

CFO Josh Guenser
🔸 “Strong unit economics and positive transaction momentum position us to navigate macro challenges effectively. Our outlook for revenues and adjusted EBITDA is trending toward the top half of our prior ranges.”
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⁠Wall St Engine
$COST April sales: Net sales hit $21.18B, up 7% y/y. For the 35-week period, total sales rose 8.2% to $180.05B. Company-wide comp sales were up 4.4% for the month.
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⁠Wall St Engine
$FTNT | Fortinet Q1'25 Earnings Highlights

🔹 Revenue: $1.54B (Est. $1.54B) 🟡; +14% YoY
🔹 Adj. EPS: $0.58 (Est. $0.53) 🟢
🔹 Billings: $1.60B; +14% YoY

Q2'25 Guidance
🔹 Revenue: $1.59B–$1.65B (Est. $1.63B) 🟡
🔹 EPS: $0.58–$0.60 (Est. $0.58) 🟢
🔹 Billings: $1.685B–$1.765B
🔹 Non-GAAP Operating Margin: 31.5%–32.5%
🔹 Gross Margin: 80%–81%

FY2025 Guidance
🔹 Revenue: $6.65B–$6.85B (Est. $6.76B) 🟡
🔹 EPS: $2.43–$2.49 (Est. $2.47) 🟡
🔹 Service Revenue: $4.575B–$4.725B
🔹 Billings: $7.2B–$7.4B
🔹 Non-GAAP Operating Margin: 31.5%–33.5%
🔹 Gross Margin: 79%–81%

ARR Metrics
🔹 Unified SASE ARR: $1.15B; +26% YoY
🔹 Security Operations ARR: $434.5M; +30% YoY

Other Key Q1 Metrics:
🔹 Product Revenue: $459M; +12% YoY
🔹 Service Revenue: $1.08B; +14% YoY
🔹 GAAP Operating Margin: 29% (Record Q1)
🔹 Non-GAAP Operating Margin: 34% (Record Q1)
🔹 Free Cash Flow: $783M; +29% YoY

Profitability
🔹 GAAP Net Income: $433.4M (vs. $299.3M YoY)
🔹 Non-GAAP Net Income: $452.3M (vs. $333.9M YoY)
🔹 GAAP EPS: $0.56 (vs. $0.39 YoY)
🔹 Non-GAAP EPS: $0.58 (vs. $0.43 YoY)

Cash Flow
🔹 Operating Cash Flow: $863M
🔹 Free Cash Flow: $783M

CEO Commentary – Ken Xie
🔸 “Non-GAAP operating margin hit a Q1 record of 34%. We’re accelerating investments into Unified SASE and Security Operations while strengthening our Secure Networking leadership. Our AI-driven innovation and FortiOS integration continue to drive differentiation.”
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⁠Wall St Engine
TRUMP: “I can’t predict if we’ll get along with China,” but confirms there’s a big meeting set for Saturday in Switzerland.
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⁠Wall St Engine
Trump’s teased “very big announcement” looks to be a Medicare drug pricing overhaul. Per Politico, he's planning to revive the "most favored nation" model—tying U.S. drug costs to lower international prices. Could be a major swing at Big Pharma ahead of Monday’s reveal. https://t.co/rwXwV8uVTA
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