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S&P 500 Closing Bell Heatmap (May 07, 2025)

$SPY +0.44% 🟩
$QQQ +0.39% 🟩
$DJI +0.70% 🟩
$IWM +0.32% 🟩

S&P 500 Opening Bell Heatmap (May 07, 2025)

$SPY +0.21% 🟩
$QQQ flat ⬜
$DJI +0.39% 🟩
$IWM +0.47% 🟩
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$AXON Q1 Earnings 🚨

β€’ Revenue $603M vs $586M Est.
β€’ EPS $1.41 vs. $1.24 Est.
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$MELI | MercadoLibre Q1'25 Earnings Highlights

πŸ”Ή Revenue: $5.93B (Est. $5.52B) 🟒; UP +37% YoY | +64% FX-neutral
πŸ”Ή EPS: $9.74 (Est. $8.27) 🟒
πŸ”Ή TPV: $58.3B; UP +43% YoY |
πŸ”Ή GMV: $13.3B; UP +17% YoY
πŸ”Ή Items Sold: 492M; UP +28% YoY
πŸ”Ή Unique Active Buyers: 67M; UP +25% YoY
πŸ”Ή Fintech Monthly Active Users: 64M; UP +31% YoY

Segment Highlights
Commerce
πŸ”Έ GMV: $13.3B; +17% USD | +40% FXN
πŸ”Ή Brazil GMV: +10% USD | +30% FXN
πŸ”Ή Mexico GMV: +14% USD | +23% FXN
πŸ”Ή Argentina GMV: +77% USD | +126% FXN
πŸ”Ή Items Sold: +28% YoY; led by +65% YoY in Supermarket category
πŸ”Ή Unique Active Buyers: 67M; +25% YoY
πŸ”Έ Fulfillment penetration in Brazil: surpassed 60% in March
πŸ”Έ Cost per order declined YoY in Brazil, Mexico, Chile

Advertising
πŸ”Ή Revenue Growth: +50% YoY FX-neutral
πŸ”Έ Display share of Ads revenue up nearly 10ppts YoY
πŸ”Έ Mercado Play app launched on smart TVsβ€”70M+ addressable devices

Fintech / Mercado Pago
πŸ”Ή TPV: $58.3B; +43% USD | +72% FXN
πŸ”Ή TPV Acquiring: $40.3B; +32% USD | +59% FXN
πŸ”Ή Credit Portfolio: $7.8B; +75% YoY
πŸ”Έ Brazil contributed +$800M QoQ to credit portfolio
πŸ”Ή 15–90 Day NPL: 8.2%; stable YoY
πŸ”Ή NIMAL Spread: 22.7% (vs. 31.5% YoY); QoQ contraction due to seasonality and credit mix
πŸ”Έ Strong ecosystem stickiness from deposits and credit use
πŸ”Έ New merchant savings pot in Brazil pays 100% of benchmark rate

Geographic Performance (FX-neutral Revenue Growth YoY)
πŸ”Ή Argentina: +184%
πŸ”Ή Mexico: +51%
πŸ”Ή Brazil: +41%
πŸ”Ή Commerce Segment: +57%
πŸ”Ή Fintech Segment: +73%
πŸ”Ή Total MELI: +64%

Other Metrics
πŸ”Ή Income from Operations: $763M; UP +45% YoY
πŸ”Ή Operating Margin: 12.9%
πŸ”Ή Net Income: $494M; Margin 8.3%
πŸ”Ή Free Cash Flow: $7M
πŸ”Ή CapEx: $256M
πŸ”Ή Depreciation & Amortization: $172M
πŸ”Ή Net Payment Transactions: 3.44B; +42% YoY
πŸ”Ή Acquiring TPV Growth:
β€ƒβ€ƒπŸ”Έ Brazil: ~30% FXN
β€ƒβ€ƒπŸ”Έ Mexico: ~50% FXN
β€ƒβ€ƒπŸ”Έ Argentina: +144% FXN | +93% USD

Management Commentary
πŸ”Έ β€œArgentina’s rebound drove record growth, balancing strategic investments in Brazil and Mexico.”
πŸ”Έ β€œWe are scaling Supermarket and Payments, improving UX, and reinforcing ecosystem flywheels.”
πŸ”Έ β€œThe launch of Mercado Play and expansion of Display Ads strengthen our long-term ad monetization roadmap.”
πŸ”Έ β€œCredit growth remains robust and disciplined, with a stable risk profile and improving first-payment default rates in Brazil.”
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$MELI Crushed Q1 Earnings 🚨

β€’ Revenue $5.93B vs $5.52B Est.
β€’ EPS $9.74 vs. $8.27 Est.
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$ARM Q4'25 Earnings Highlights

πŸ”Ή Revenue: $1.24B (Est. $1.23B) 🟒; +34% YoY
πŸ”Ή Adj. EPS: $0.55 (Est. $0.53) 🟒; +53% YoY
πŸ”Ή Adj. Oper Income: $655M (Est. $621.8M) 🟒; +68% YoY

FY26 Guide
πŸ”Ή Revenue: $3.94B–$4.04B (Est. $4.91B) πŸ”΄
πŸ”Ή Adj. EPS: $1.56–$1.64 (Est. $2.03) πŸ”΄

Q1'26 Guidance
πŸ”Ή Revenue: $1.00B–$1.10B (Est. $1.10B) 🟑
πŸ”Ή Adj. EPS: $0.30–$0.38 (Est. $0.42) πŸ”΄
πŸ”Ή Adj. OpEx: ~$625M (vs. $566M in Q4 FY25)

Other Key Metrics:
πŸ”Ή Royalty Revenue: $607M (Est. $567.7M) 🟒; +18% YoY
πŸ”Ή Licensing & Other Revenue: $634M; +53% YoY
πŸ”Ή Adj. Gross Margin: 98.4% (vs. 97.2% YoY)
πŸ”Ή Adj. Operating Margin: 52.8% (vs. 42.1% YoY)
πŸ”Ή Operating Cash Flow: $258M
πŸ”Ή Free Cash Flow (Non-GAAP): $163M
πŸ”Ή Cash & Short-Term Investments: $2.83B
πŸ”Ή R&D Headcount: +18% YoY (6,943 engineers)

CEO Rene Haas Commentary
πŸ”Έ β€œArm delivered record-breaking results for both Q4 and the full fiscal year. We surpassed $1B in revenue for the first time in a quarter, driven by broad deployment of our CSS platforms across AI data center, cloud, and mobile.”
πŸ”Έ β€œAI is accelerating demand for energy-efficient compute. Arm is uniquely positioned to lead this shift from cloud to edge, as more software is being written first for Arm-based chips.”

Strategic & Platform Highlights
πŸ”Ή Smartphone royalty revenue +30% YoY despite <2% unit growth, driven by armv9 adoption
πŸ”Ή major wins: nvidia grace blackwell, google axion, microsoft cobalt 100
πŸ”Ή first css license signed in automotive (ev platform)
πŸ”Ή flexible access customers: 314 (up from 222 yoy)
πŸ”Ή github copilot + arm developer ai extension launched
πŸ”Ή over 8b kleidi ai installs
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$AXON Enterprise Q1 Earnings Highlights

πŸ”Ή Revenue: $604M (Est. $586M) 🟒; +34% YoY
πŸ”Ή Adj. EPS: $1.41 (Est. $1.24) 🟒
πŸ”Ή Adj. EBITDA: $155M (Est. $138M) 🟒

FY25 Guidance
πŸ”Ή Revenue: $2.65B (Est. $2.62B) 🟒
πŸ”Ή Adj. EBITDA: $668M (Est. $660M) 🟒
πŸ”Ή CapEx: $160M–$180M

Q1 Business Segment:
πŸ”Ή Axon Cloud Revenue: $263M; +39% YoY
πŸ”Ή ARR: $1.1B; +34% YoY
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$CVNA | Carvana Q1'25 Earnings Highlights

πŸ”Ή Revenue: $4.23B (Est. $3.98B) 🟒; +38% YoY
πŸ”Ή Adj. EBITDA: $488M (Est. $434.3M) 🟒; Margin: 11.5% 🟒
πŸ”Ή Retail Units Sold: 133,898; +46% YoY 🟒

Q2'25 Outlook
πŸ”Ή Expects sequential increase in: Retail Units Sold & Adj EBITDA
πŸ”Ή Guidance implies new all-time company records on both metrics

Q1 Operational Highlights
πŸ”Έ All-time record in Retail Units Sold
πŸ”Έ Record Net Income and Adjusted EBITDA
πŸ”Έ Highest NPS score in nearly 3 years

Strategic Long-Term Target
πŸ”Ή New Management Objective: 3 million retail units/year at 13.5% Adjusted EBITDA margin within 5–10 years

CEO Commentary – Ernie Garcia
πŸ”Έ β€œIn Q1, Carvana set a new record for retail units while also driving record profitability and hitting our highest customer net promoter score in nearly three years.”
πŸ”Έ β€œWe are incredibly well positioned... with very clear visibility to even stronger financial performance, much larger scales, and even better customer experiences.”
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$APP | AppLovin Q1'25 Earnings Highlights

πŸ”Ή Revenue: $1.48B (Est. $1.38B) 🟒; +40% YoY
πŸ”Ή Adj. EPS: $1.67 (Est. $1.42) 🟒
πŸ”Ή Adj. EBITDA: $1.01B; +83% YoY

Strategic Update
πŸ”Έ Divestiture: AppLovin entered into a definitive agreement to sell its mobile gaming business to Tripledot Studios for: $400M in cash; ~20% ownership stake in Tripledot common equity; Deal expected to close in Q2 2025, subject to regulatory approvals

Q1 Advertising
πŸ”Ή Revenue: $1.16B; +71% YoY
πŸ”Ή Adj. EBITDA: $943M; +92% YoY
πŸ”Ή Margin: 81%

Apps (Gaming)
πŸ”Ή Revenue: $325M; -14% YoY
πŸ”Ή Adj. EBITDA: $62M; +9% YoY

πŸ”Έ Focus shift continues toward being a pure-play marketing and ad tech platform

Cash Flow & Capital Returns
πŸ”Ή Operating Cash Flow: $832M
πŸ”Ή Free Cash Flow: $826M
πŸ”Ή Share Repurchase: 3.4M shares repurchased in Q1 for $1.2B
πŸ”Ή Total Shares Outstanding: 338M (Class A + B)

CEO Commentary (Implied)
πŸ”Έ Exceptional growth driven by ad platform strength and margin expansion
πŸ”Έ Strategic realignment solidifies AppLovin as a high-growth, high-margin software business post divestiture
πŸ”Έ Capital returns reflect strong confidence in long-term trajectory
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BREAKING: The Quiver Quantitative site just made an appearance in Congress.

Jasmine Crockett attacked Marjorie Taylor Greene for Palantir stock purchases.

See here: https://t.co/FEYMEaOZiR
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$BROS | Dutch Bros Q1'25 Earnings Highlights

πŸ”Ή Revenue: $355.2M (Est. $344.4M) 🟒; +29% YoY
πŸ”Ή Adj. EPS: $0.14 (Est. $0.11) 🟒
πŸ”Ή Oper. Income: $31.1M (Est. $26.8M) 🟒
πŸ”Ή Adj. EBITDA: $62.9M; +19.7% YoY

FY25 Guide
πŸ”Ή Revenue: $1.555B–$1.575B (Est. $1.584B) πŸ”΄
πŸ”Ή Adj. EBITDA: $265M–$275M 🟑
πŸ”Ή Same Shop Sales Growth: 2%–4%
πŸ”Ή CapEx: $240M–$260M
πŸ”Ή Shop Openings: At least 160 total system shops

Q1 Same Shop Sales & Traffic
πŸ”Ή System Same Shop Sales: +4.7% YoY
πŸ”Ή System Transaction Growth: +1.3% YoY
πŸ”Ή Company-Operated Same Shop Sales: +6.9% YoY
πŸ”Ή Company-Operated Transaction Growth: +3.7% YoY

Q1 Operational Highlights
πŸ”Ή Total Shops Opened in Q1: 30 (25 Company-Operated)
πŸ”Ή Company-Operated Revenue: $326.4M; +31.6% YoY
πŸ”Ή Company-Operated Gross Margin: 21.9% (flat YoY)
πŸ”Ή Company-Operated Contribution Margin: 29.4% (DOWN -40 bps YoY)
πŸ”Ή Adj. SG&A: $53.5M (15.1% of revenue) vs. $40.4M YoY (14.7%)

CEO Christine Barone
πŸ”Έ β€œWe started 2025 on a high note with 29% revenue growth and accelerating transaction trends. Our brand continues to resonate, and we’re confident in our long-term growth roadmap.”

CFO Josh Guenser
πŸ”Έ β€œStrong unit economics and positive transaction momentum position us to navigate macro challenges effectively. Our outlook for revenues and adjusted EBITDA is trending toward the top half of our prior ranges.”
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$COST April sales: Net sales hit $21.18B, up 7% y/y. For the 35-week period, total sales rose 8.2% to $180.05B. Company-wide comp sales were up 4.4% for the month.
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$FTNT | Fortinet Q1'25 Earnings Highlights

πŸ”Ή Revenue: $1.54B (Est. $1.54B) 🟑; +14% YoY
πŸ”Ή Adj. EPS: $0.58 (Est. $0.53) 🟒
πŸ”Ή Billings: $1.60B; +14% YoY

Q2'25 Guidance
πŸ”Ή Revenue: $1.59B–$1.65B (Est. $1.63B) 🟑
πŸ”Ή EPS: $0.58–$0.60 (Est. $0.58) 🟒
πŸ”Ή Billings: $1.685B–$1.765B
πŸ”Ή Non-GAAP Operating Margin: 31.5%–32.5%
πŸ”Ή Gross Margin: 80%–81%

FY2025 Guidance
πŸ”Ή Revenue: $6.65B–$6.85B (Est. $6.76B) 🟑
πŸ”Ή EPS: $2.43–$2.49 (Est. $2.47) 🟑
πŸ”Ή Service Revenue: $4.575B–$4.725B
πŸ”Ή Billings: $7.2B–$7.4B
πŸ”Ή Non-GAAP Operating Margin: 31.5%–33.5%
πŸ”Ή Gross Margin: 79%–81%

ARR Metrics
πŸ”Ή Unified SASE ARR: $1.15B; +26% YoY
πŸ”Ή Security Operations ARR: $434.5M; +30% YoY

Other Key Q1 Metrics:
πŸ”Ή Product Revenue: $459M; +12% YoY
πŸ”Ή Service Revenue: $1.08B; +14% YoY
πŸ”Ή GAAP Operating Margin: 29% (Record Q1)
πŸ”Ή Non-GAAP Operating Margin: 34% (Record Q1)
πŸ”Ή Free Cash Flow: $783M; +29% YoY

Profitability
πŸ”Ή GAAP Net Income: $433.4M (vs. $299.3M YoY)
πŸ”Ή Non-GAAP Net Income: $452.3M (vs. $333.9M YoY)
πŸ”Ή GAAP EPS: $0.56 (vs. $0.39 YoY)
πŸ”Ή Non-GAAP EPS: $0.58 (vs. $0.43 YoY)

Cash Flow
πŸ”Ή Operating Cash Flow: $863M
πŸ”Ή Free Cash Flow: $783M

CEO Commentary – Ken Xie
πŸ”Έ β€œNon-GAAP operating margin hit a Q1 record of 34%. We’re accelerating investments into Unified SASE and Security Operations while strengthening our Secure Networking leadership. Our AI-driven innovation and FortiOS integration continue to drive differentiation.”
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⁠Wall St Engine
TRUMP: β€œI can’t predict if we’ll get along with China,” but confirms there’s a big meeting set for Saturday in Switzerland.
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