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$NVO | Novo Nordisk Q1'25 Earnings Highlights
🔹 Revenue: DKK 78.1B (Est: DKK78.7B) 😐; +19% YoY
🔹 Net Profit: DKK 29.0B (Est: DKK27.9B) 🟢
🔹 Wegovy: DKK 17.4B (Est: DKK19.0B) 🔴
🔹 Ozempic: DKK 32.7B (Est: DKK32.3B) 🟢
FY25 Guide:
🔹 Cuts Revenue Growth (cc): Now +13–21% vs. prior +16–24% 🔴
🔹 Maintained Operating Profit Growth (cc): +16–24%
Q1 Segment Performance
🔹 US Revenue: +20% YoY
🔹 Obesity Revenue: +67% YoY
🔹 Insulin Revenue: +13% YoY
🔹 Rare Disease Revenue: +5% YoY
🔹 Free Cash Flow: DKK 10B (+89% YoY)
🔸 CEO: ~1/3 of US obesity market now held by GLP-1 compounders
🔸 CFO: Expects 2H utilization step-up for Wegovy and potential label expansion in Q3
🔸 GLP-1 penetration impacted by rapid compounding expansion in the US
🔸 Actively addressing unlawful and unsafe compounding practices
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$NVO | Novo Nordisk Q1'25 Earnings Highlights
🔹 Revenue: DKK 78.1B (Est: DKK78.7B) 😐; +19% YoY
🔹 Net Profit: DKK 29.0B (Est: DKK27.9B) 🟢
🔹 Wegovy: DKK 17.4B (Est: DKK19.0B) 🔴
🔹 Ozempic: DKK 32.7B (Est: DKK32.3B) 🟢
FY25 Guide:
🔹 Cuts Revenue Growth (cc): Now +13–21% vs. prior +16–24% 🔴
🔹 Maintained Operating Profit Growth (cc): +16–24%
Q1 Segment Performance
🔹 US Revenue: +20% YoY
🔹 Obesity Revenue: +67% YoY
🔹 Insulin Revenue: +13% YoY
🔹 Rare Disease Revenue: +5% YoY
🔹 Free Cash Flow: DKK 10B (+89% YoY)
🔸 CEO: ~1/3 of US obesity market now held by GLP-1 compounders
🔸 CFO: Expects 2H utilization step-up for Wegovy and potential label expansion in Q3
🔸 GLP-1 penetration impacted by rapid compounding expansion in the US
🔸 Actively addressing unlawful and unsafe compounding practices
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Wall St Engine
Citi Maintains Neutral on $CAVA, Lowers PT to $114 from $120
Analyst comments: "Key questions ahead of 1Q25 earnings (5/15 AMC) include: (1) Progress on the relaunched loyalty program in terms of member engagement, and where CAVA stands on offering more targeted consumer promotions; (2) The impact of the new labor and deployment model on productivity across dayparts, including peak efficiency and areas of unmet demand; (3) Updates on operational initiatives such as AI make-line monitoring, Project Soul, and the new KDS test, and whether benefits are expected to drop to the bottom line or be reinvested; (4) Tariff impacts on the P&L or build/equipment costs; (5) Expectations for new product innovation in 2025.
Footfall data slowed in the quarter (+18.6% year-over-year vs. +25.4% in 4Q), with January being strongest and April the slowest. App usage showed gradual improvement, and Bloomberg data indicated sales/traffic slowed but remained around +20%. New guest mix stayed near ~40% in 1Q, consistent with 4Q. Fourteen units opened in the quarter, ahead of Street expectations (13).
We adjust our 2025E/2026E EPS to $0.46/$0.63 from $0.37/$0.53 on lower depreciation and amortization expectations. Our price target moves to $114, reflecting a 60x EV/EBITDA multiple on our forward 12-month EBITDA estimate (down from ~4.6x to ~4.1x the market multiple) to account for a broadly choppy backdrop in the restaurant sector."
Analyst: Jon Tower
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Citi Maintains Neutral on $CAVA, Lowers PT to $114 from $120
Analyst comments: "Key questions ahead of 1Q25 earnings (5/15 AMC) include: (1) Progress on the relaunched loyalty program in terms of member engagement, and where CAVA stands on offering more targeted consumer promotions; (2) The impact of the new labor and deployment model on productivity across dayparts, including peak efficiency and areas of unmet demand; (3) Updates on operational initiatives such as AI make-line monitoring, Project Soul, and the new KDS test, and whether benefits are expected to drop to the bottom line or be reinvested; (4) Tariff impacts on the P&L or build/equipment costs; (5) Expectations for new product innovation in 2025.
Footfall data slowed in the quarter (+18.6% year-over-year vs. +25.4% in 4Q), with January being strongest and April the slowest. App usage showed gradual improvement, and Bloomberg data indicated sales/traffic slowed but remained around +20%. New guest mix stayed near ~40% in 1Q, consistent with 4Q. Fourteen units opened in the quarter, ahead of Street expectations (13).
We adjust our 2025E/2026E EPS to $0.46/$0.63 from $0.37/$0.53 on lower depreciation and amortization expectations. Our price target moves to $114, reflecting a 60x EV/EBITDA multiple on our forward 12-month EBITDA estimate (down from ~4.6x to ~4.1x the market multiple) to account for a broadly choppy backdrop in the restaurant sector."
Analyst: Jon Tower
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Wall St Engine
BofA Reiterates Underperform on $CELH, PT $30
Analyst comments: "Light 1Q results were more complicated than expected. Year-ago laps against Essentials distribution expansion muddied the view on underlying demand. Shipment pull-forward into 4Q and a step-up in promotions created a larger-than-anticipated gap between scanner data and reported results. Underlying demand remains unclear, with scanner data showing a -2% year-over-year decline through April 19, largely due to lapping a Club channel promotional event and only a slight sales decline in other scanned retail. We expect year-over-year consumption to improve over the rest of the quarter, but now also factor in a promotional increase that could hurt 2Q sales before becoming a tailwind in 2H25.
Alani Nu remains a question mark until more information is shared by management on an expected modeling call. Inventory step-up is likely to weigh on Alani’s gross margin in the near term, though the long-term 50% gross margin target remains possible."
Analyst: Jonathan Keypour
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BofA Reiterates Underperform on $CELH, PT $30
Analyst comments: "Light 1Q results were more complicated than expected. Year-ago laps against Essentials distribution expansion muddied the view on underlying demand. Shipment pull-forward into 4Q and a step-up in promotions created a larger-than-anticipated gap between scanner data and reported results. Underlying demand remains unclear, with scanner data showing a -2% year-over-year decline through April 19, largely due to lapping a Club channel promotional event and only a slight sales decline in other scanned retail. We expect year-over-year consumption to improve over the rest of the quarter, but now also factor in a promotional increase that could hurt 2Q sales before becoming a tailwind in 2H25.
Alani Nu remains a question mark until more information is shared by management on an expected modeling call. Inventory step-up is likely to weigh on Alani’s gross margin in the near term, though the long-term 50% gross margin target remains possible."
Analyst: Jonathan Keypour
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Wall St Engine
Jefferies Maintains Hold on $AMD, Lowers PT to $100 from $120; 'We remain on the sidelines as there is really no upside without an AI story'
Analyst comments: "Overall estimates move higher, which may be seen as a short-term positive given low expectations, but AI growth remains the key metric for the stock—and on that front, estimates are moving lower. This might not be the last cut, as the full-year AI growth outlook depends heavily on a significant 2H25 ramp driven by the MI350 launch, and we still have not seen any meaningful traction. Server revenue was solid despite some potential share loss to Intel, and the Client segment performed well with record average selling prices, though share also declined there.
Looking ahead to 2H, the PC market is expected to be 'sub-seasonal,' likely adjusted downwards to reflect already strong performance and potential tariff-driven demand destruction. We remain on the sidelines, as there is really no upside without an AI story."
Analyst: Blayne Curtis
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Jefferies Maintains Hold on $AMD, Lowers PT to $100 from $120; 'We remain on the sidelines as there is really no upside without an AI story'
Analyst comments: "Overall estimates move higher, which may be seen as a short-term positive given low expectations, but AI growth remains the key metric for the stock—and on that front, estimates are moving lower. This might not be the last cut, as the full-year AI growth outlook depends heavily on a significant 2H25 ramp driven by the MI350 launch, and we still have not seen any meaningful traction. Server revenue was solid despite some potential share loss to Intel, and the Client segment performed well with record average selling prices, though share also declined there.
Looking ahead to 2H, the PC market is expected to be 'sub-seasonal,' likely adjusted downwards to reflect already strong performance and potential tariff-driven demand destruction. We remain on the sidelines, as there is really no upside without an AI story."
Analyst: Blayne Curtis
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Wall St Engine
Alibaba $BABA is teaming up with RedNote (Xiaohongshu) to let users shop directly from posts via Taobao links, formalizing app-to-app shopping. The move supports Alibaba's instant retail push, now handling 10M orders in 5 days, as competition heats up with JD and Meituan in the one-hour delivery race.
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Alibaba $BABA is teaming up with RedNote (Xiaohongshu) to let users shop directly from posts via Taobao links, formalizing app-to-app shopping. The move supports Alibaba's instant retail push, now handling 10M orders in 5 days, as competition heats up with JD and Meituan in the one-hour delivery race.
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Wall St Engine
EU 🇪🇺 is preparing to propose tariffs on Boeing $BA jets as part of a broader €100B retaliation package if talks with the US fail to lower tariffs. Measures would need majority approval from EU members and wouldn’t take effect unless progress stalls.
(Source: FT) https://t.co/aMybyWJbd8
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EU 🇪🇺 is preparing to propose tariffs on Boeing $BA jets as part of a broader €100B retaliation package if talks with the US fail to lower tariffs. Measures would need majority approval from EU members and wouldn’t take effect unless progress stalls.
(Source: FT) https://t.co/aMybyWJbd8
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Wall St Engine
$OSCR | Oscar Health Q1'25 Earnings Highlights
🔹 Revenue: $3.05B (Est. $2.87B) 🟢; +42% YoY
🔹 Net Income: $275.3M; +55% YoY
🔹 EPS (Diluted): $0.92 (Est. $0.81) 🟢
🔹 Adj EBITDA: $328.8M; +50% YoY
🔹 Medical Loss Ratio (MLR): 75.4% (vs. 74.2% Y/Y)
🔹 SG&A Expense Ratio: 15.8%
🔹 Membership: 2.04M; +41% YoY
↳ Individual & Small Group: 2.02M
↳ Cigna+Oscar: 17.9K (down from 61.4K)
🔸 Reaffirmed FY25 guidance. Management emphasized margin expansion and operating leverage due to membership growth and efficiency gains.
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$OSCR | Oscar Health Q1'25 Earnings Highlights
🔹 Revenue: $3.05B (Est. $2.87B) 🟢; +42% YoY
🔹 Net Income: $275.3M; +55% YoY
🔹 EPS (Diluted): $0.92 (Est. $0.81) 🟢
🔹 Adj EBITDA: $328.8M; +50% YoY
🔹 Medical Loss Ratio (MLR): 75.4% (vs. 74.2% Y/Y)
🔹 SG&A Expense Ratio: 15.8%
🔹 Membership: 2.04M; +41% YoY
↳ Individual & Small Group: 2.02M
↳ Cigna+Oscar: 17.9K (down from 61.4K)
🔸 Reaffirmed FY25 guidance. Management emphasized margin expansion and operating leverage due to membership growth and efficiency gains.
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Wall St Engine
BofA Upgrades $AMD to Buy from Neutral, Raises PT to $120 from $105; '20%+ topline grower at compelling 18x CY26E PE'
Analyst comments: "AMD’s Q1 beat and strong Q2 sales outlook ($7.4 billion, 10% above our forecast despite a $700 million China headwind) address prior concerns regarding China AI restrictions and Nvidia GPU competition. We find the risk-reward compelling and upgrade AMD to Buy based on: (1) potential to deliver 20%+ topline growth in CY25E and CY26E, even with China headwinds; (2) continued share gains in PC/server CPUs against Intel, which remains in a restructuring phase; (3) achievable AI GPU sales targets of $6.2 billion in CY25E (up 23% YoY, including $1.5 billion from China restrictions), with a 2H acceleration driven by the MI350 launch; (4) EBIT margin expansion potential toward 30% in CY27E from 22% in CY25E; and (5) an attractive valuation at 18x CY26E P/E versus a 27% CY24-27E pro forma EPS CAGR.
While bears may argue that near-term beats stem from consumer PC/gaming or tariff pull-ins, we see the strength as driven by better mix and share gains. We raise our CY25/26/27E pro forma EPS by 4%/6%/11% to $3.80/$5.60/$6.81 and lift our price objective to $120 from $105, applying a slightly higher 21x CY26E P/E multiple (up from 20x), still within AMD’s historical 13x-39x range."
Analyst: Vivek Arya
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BofA Upgrades $AMD to Buy from Neutral, Raises PT to $120 from $105; '20%+ topline grower at compelling 18x CY26E PE'
Analyst comments: "AMD’s Q1 beat and strong Q2 sales outlook ($7.4 billion, 10% above our forecast despite a $700 million China headwind) address prior concerns regarding China AI restrictions and Nvidia GPU competition. We find the risk-reward compelling and upgrade AMD to Buy based on: (1) potential to deliver 20%+ topline growth in CY25E and CY26E, even with China headwinds; (2) continued share gains in PC/server CPUs against Intel, which remains in a restructuring phase; (3) achievable AI GPU sales targets of $6.2 billion in CY25E (up 23% YoY, including $1.5 billion from China restrictions), with a 2H acceleration driven by the MI350 launch; (4) EBIT margin expansion potential toward 30% in CY27E from 22% in CY25E; and (5) an attractive valuation at 18x CY26E P/E versus a 27% CY24-27E pro forma EPS CAGR.
While bears may argue that near-term beats stem from consumer PC/gaming or tariff pull-ins, we see the strength as driven by better mix and share gains. We raise our CY25/26/27E pro forma EPS by 4%/6%/11% to $3.80/$5.60/$6.81 and lift our price objective to $120 from $105, applying a slightly higher 21x CY26E P/E multiple (up from 20x), still within AMD’s historical 13x-39x range."
Analyst: Vivek Arya
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BofA Upgrades $HON to Buy from Neutral, Raises PT to $250 from $210
Analyst comments: "Following solid, beat-and-raise 1Q25 earnings, we upgrade shares of Honeywell to Buy from Neutral and raise our price objective to $250 from $210. Honeywell is one of the most discounted names in our coverage on a terminal growth basis. Shares have underperformed the index over the past two years due to negative earnings revisions and unmet investor expectations. With earnings now appearing to stabilize, we believe the company can begin to close some of the valuation gap relative to peers.
Honeywell’s business mix is more defensive compared to high-quality industrial peers, which is advantageous in the current macro environment. Over the next 12 months, we expect investors to increasingly focus on the benefits of the company’s breakup and business simplification, which should drive improved valuation. Our $250 price objective is based on a 17x 2026E EV/EBITDA multiple (vs. 14x prior), still at a discount to peers trading at 18x on 2025E, but reflecting progress in narrowing the gap."
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BofA Upgrades $HON to Buy from Neutral, Raises PT to $250 from $210
Analyst comments: "Following solid, beat-and-raise 1Q25 earnings, we upgrade shares of Honeywell to Buy from Neutral and raise our price objective to $250 from $210. Honeywell is one of the most discounted names in our coverage on a terminal growth basis. Shares have underperformed the index over the past two years due to negative earnings revisions and unmet investor expectations. With earnings now appearing to stabilize, we believe the company can begin to close some of the valuation gap relative to peers.
Honeywell’s business mix is more defensive compared to high-quality industrial peers, which is advantageous in the current macro environment. Over the next 12 months, we expect investors to increasingly focus on the benefits of the company’s breakup and business simplification, which should drive improved valuation. Our $250 price objective is based on a 17x 2026E EV/EBITDA multiple (vs. 14x prior), still at a discount to peers trading at 18x on 2025E, but reflecting progress in narrowing the gap."
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Wall St Engine
BofA Upgrades $WYNN to Buy from Neutral, Raises PT to $100 from $90
Analyst comments: "We are upgrading shares of Wynn Resorts to Buy from Neutral. The key catalyst is the opening of Wynn Al Marjan Island in early 2027, which will be the first major integrated casino resort in the Middle East. We believe this project will increasingly influence investor expectations and underwriting over the next 12–18 months.
While macro uncertainty persists and the UAE opening is still about two years away, Wynn’s recent 20% pullback since October, its 10% free cash flow yield, and the valuation of its core assets help mitigate concerns about China/Macau exposure, which has been our main issue. We expect the UAE development to support a return to growth and diversify Wynn’s portfolio, potentially restoring its premium valuation. Our price objective increases to $100 from $90 as we incorporate UAE value and roll forward to 2026."
Analyst: Shaun Kelley
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BofA Upgrades $WYNN to Buy from Neutral, Raises PT to $100 from $90
Analyst comments: "We are upgrading shares of Wynn Resorts to Buy from Neutral. The key catalyst is the opening of Wynn Al Marjan Island in early 2027, which will be the first major integrated casino resort in the Middle East. We believe this project will increasingly influence investor expectations and underwriting over the next 12–18 months.
While macro uncertainty persists and the UAE opening is still about two years away, Wynn’s recent 20% pullback since October, its 10% free cash flow yield, and the valuation of its core assets help mitigate concerns about China/Macau exposure, which has been our main issue. We expect the UAE development to support a return to growth and diversify Wynn’s portfolio, potentially restoring its premium valuation. Our price objective increases to $100 from $90 as we incorporate UAE value and roll forward to 2026."
Analyst: Shaun Kelley
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OpenAI plans to expand its $500B Stargate AI infrastructure project beyond the U.S., targeting ~10 global sites with U.S. allies like the UK, France, and Germany. VP Chris Lehane says it's about promoting “democratic AI” & giving partners potential access to advanced U.S. chips. https://t.co/yUawVZNGVn
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OpenAI plans to expand its $500B Stargate AI infrastructure project beyond the U.S., targeting ~10 global sites with U.S. allies like the UK, France, and Germany. VP Chris Lehane says it's about promoting “democratic AI” & giving partners potential access to advanced U.S. chips. https://t.co/yUawVZNGVn
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Wall St Engine
Cantor Fitzgerald Downgrades $MRVL to Neutral from Overweight, Lowers PT to $60 from $125; 'we now worry about the lack of stickiness in MRVL's custom silicon business'
Analyst comments: "While we believe the significant decline in Marvell shares since their January peak reflects the loss of Trainium Gen3 at Amazon, we do not think it yet reflects the potential loss of Microsoft’s Maia Gen3, which our industry checks indicate is likely. We had hoped for announcements of new wins at the upcoming Investor Day, but with management delaying the event, we suspect there may be little positive news to share.
Although we continue to expect a strong ramp in CY25/26 from Marvell’s two leading custom silicon customers, we are concerned about a sharp decline into CY27 as sockets shift to competitors. We now question the stickiness of Marvell’s custom silicon business, and believe this may weigh on the segment’s valuation multiple until more stability is demonstrated. As a result, we downgrade Marvell to Neutral and lower our price target to $60. For AI exposure, we continue to favor NVDA, AVGO, TSM, and MU as top ideas."
Analyst: C.J. Muse
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Cantor Fitzgerald Downgrades $MRVL to Neutral from Overweight, Lowers PT to $60 from $125; 'we now worry about the lack of stickiness in MRVL's custom silicon business'
Analyst comments: "While we believe the significant decline in Marvell shares since their January peak reflects the loss of Trainium Gen3 at Amazon, we do not think it yet reflects the potential loss of Microsoft’s Maia Gen3, which our industry checks indicate is likely. We had hoped for announcements of new wins at the upcoming Investor Day, but with management delaying the event, we suspect there may be little positive news to share.
Although we continue to expect a strong ramp in CY25/26 from Marvell’s two leading custom silicon customers, we are concerned about a sharp decline into CY27 as sockets shift to competitors. We now question the stickiness of Marvell’s custom silicon business, and believe this may weigh on the segment’s valuation multiple until more stability is demonstrated. As a result, we downgrade Marvell to Neutral and lower our price target to $60. For AI exposure, we continue to favor NVDA, AVGO, TSM, and MU as top ideas."
Analyst: C.J. Muse
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