Offshore
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โ Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capitalยฎ
A quality valuation analysis on $ASML ๐ง๐ฝโโ๏ธ
โขNTM P/E Ratio: 26.34x
โข10-Year Mean: 31.08x
โขNTM FCF Yield: 3.39%
โข10-Year Mean: 3.09%
As you can see, $ASML appears to be trading below fair value
Going forward, investors can receive ~18% MORE in earnings per share & ~10% MORE in FCF per share๐ง ***
Before we get into valuation, letโs take a look at why $ASML is an excellent business (*Financials in USD*)
BALANCE SHEETโ
โขCash & Short Term Inv: $9.85B
โขLong-Term Debt: $3.98B
$ASML has a strong balance sheet & 70x FFO Interest Coverage
RETURN ON CAPITALโ
โข2021: 43.8%
โข2022: 48.0%
โข2023: 48.7%
โข2024: 38.3%
โขLTM: 48.2%
RETURN ON EQUITYโ
โข2021: 49.0%
โข2022: 59.4%
โข2023: 70.4%
โข2024: 47.4%
โขLTM: 55.6%
$ASML has excellent return metrics, highlighting the financial efficiency of the business
REVENUESโ
โข2014: $7.09B
โข2024: $29.28B
โขCAGR: 15.23%
FREE CASH FLOW*
โข $ASML FCF is very sporadic due to heavy capital expenditures & isnโt necessarily the most reliable way to analyze the companyโs value
NORMALIZED EPSโ
โข2014: $3.15
โข2024: $20.03
โขCAGR: 20.31%
SHARE BUYBACKSโ
โข2018 Shares Outstanding: 426.40M
โขLTM Shares Outstanding: 393.30M
By reducing its shares outstanding ~7.7%, $ASML increased its EPS by ~8.3% (assuming 0 growth)
MARGINSโ
โขLTM Gross Margins: 52.0%
โขLTM Operating Margins: 33.8%
โขLTM Net Income Margins: 28.3%
***NOW TO VALUATION ๐ง
As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~18% MORE in EPS & 10% MORE in FCF per share
Using Benjamin Grahamโs 2G rule of thumb, $ASML has to grow earnings at a 13.17% CAGR over the next several years to justify its valuation
Today, analysts anticipate 2025 - 2027 EPS growth over the next few years to be more than the (13.17%) required growth rate:
2025E: $26.60 (21.6% YoY) *FY Dec
2026E: $30.75 (15.6% YoY)
2027E: $37.29 (20.7% YoY)
$ASML has a decent track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out. HOWEVER, letโs be conservative & assume $ASML ends 2027 with $35.00*** in EPS (~6% below current estimates) & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples:
29x P/E: $1,015๐ต โฆ ~17.0% CAGR
28x P/E: $980๐ต โฆ ~15.4% CAGR
27x P/E: $945๐ต โฆ ~13.9% CAGR
26x P/E: $910๐ต โฆ ~12.3% CAGR
25x P/E: $875๐ต โฆ ~10.7% CAGR
As you can see, $ASML appears to have attractive return potential EVEN if we assume greater or equal to 25x EPS (below its 10-year mean, current multiple, & justified given its quality, moat & growth rate)
Today at $687๐ต $ASML appears to be a strong consideration for investment, albeit with extreme volatility
Additionally, we have some margin of safety by relying on a lower multiple & lower growth rate
As Iโve stated before, given its volatility, however, itโs wise to piece into $ASML โ this way, you enhance your margin of safety while also positioning yourself to โwin-winโ if the stock moves up or down in the short-term ๐ต
#stocks #investing
___
๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐โผ๏ธ: ๐๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐๐๐ ๐๐ง๐ฏ๐๐ฌ๐ญ๐ฆ๐๐ง๐ญ ๐๐๐ฏ๐ข๐๐. ๐๐๐๐ฒ๐ฅ๐จ๐ง ๐๐๐ฉ๐ข๐ญ๐๐ฅยฎ ๐๐ง๐ ๐ข๐ญ๐ฌ ๐ซ๐๐ฉ๐ซ๐๐ฌ๐๐ง๐ญ๐๐ญ๐ข๐ฏ๐๐ฌ ๐ฆ๐๐ฒ ๐ก๐๐ฏ๐ ๐ฉ๐จ๐ฌ๐ข๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐ฌ๐๐๐ฎ๐ซ๐ข๐ญ๐ข๐๐ฌ ๐๐ข๐ฌ๐๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ฌ๐๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐๐๐ญ.
๐๐ก๐ ๐ข๐ง๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐๐จ๐ง๐ญ๐๐ข๐ง๐๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐๐๐ญ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง๐ญ๐๐ง๐๐๐ ๐๐จ๐ซ ๐ข๐ง๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐๐ฅ ๐ฉ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ฉ๐จ๐ฌ๐๐ฌ ๐จ๐ง๐ฅ๐ฒ ๐๐ง๐ ๐ฌ๐ก๐จ๐ฎ๐ฅ๐ ๐ง๐จ๐ญ ๐๐ ๐๐จ๐ง๐ฌ๐ญ๐ซ๐ฎ๐๐ ๐๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง๐ฏ๐๐ฌ๐ญ๐ฆ๐๐ง๐ญ ๐๐๐ฏ๐ข๐๐ ๐ญ๐จ ๐ฆ๐๐๐ญ ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐ฌ๐ฉ๐๐๐ข๐๐ข๐ ๐ง๐๐๐๐ฌ ๐จ๐ ๐๐ง๐ฒ ๐ข๐ง๐๐ข๐ฏ๐ข๐๐ฎ๐๐ฅ ๐จ๐ซ ๐ฌ๐ข๐ญ๐ฎ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง. ๐๐๐ฌ๐ญ ๐ฉ๐๐ซ๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ง๐๐ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ง๐จ ๐ ๐ฎ๐๐ซ๐๐ง๐ญ๐๐ ๐จ๐ ๐๐ฎ๐ญ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ ๐ซ๐๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ฅ๐ญ๐ฌ.
๐๐ง๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐๐จ๐ง๐ญ๐๐ข๐ง๐๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐๐๐ญ ๐ก๐๐ฌ ๐๐๐๐ง ๐จ๐๐ญ๐๐ข๐ง๐๐ ๐๐ซ๐จ๐ฆ ๐ฌ๏ฟฝ[...]
A quality valuation analysis on $ASML ๐ง๐ฝโโ๏ธ
โขNTM P/E Ratio: 26.34x
โข10-Year Mean: 31.08x
โขNTM FCF Yield: 3.39%
โข10-Year Mean: 3.09%
As you can see, $ASML appears to be trading below fair value
Going forward, investors can receive ~18% MORE in earnings per share & ~10% MORE in FCF per share๐ง ***
Before we get into valuation, letโs take a look at why $ASML is an excellent business (*Financials in USD*)
BALANCE SHEETโ
โขCash & Short Term Inv: $9.85B
โขLong-Term Debt: $3.98B
$ASML has a strong balance sheet & 70x FFO Interest Coverage
RETURN ON CAPITALโ
โข2021: 43.8%
โข2022: 48.0%
โข2023: 48.7%
โข2024: 38.3%
โขLTM: 48.2%
RETURN ON EQUITYโ
โข2021: 49.0%
โข2022: 59.4%
โข2023: 70.4%
โข2024: 47.4%
โขLTM: 55.6%
$ASML has excellent return metrics, highlighting the financial efficiency of the business
REVENUESโ
โข2014: $7.09B
โข2024: $29.28B
โขCAGR: 15.23%
FREE CASH FLOW*
โข $ASML FCF is very sporadic due to heavy capital expenditures & isnโt necessarily the most reliable way to analyze the companyโs value
NORMALIZED EPSโ
โข2014: $3.15
โข2024: $20.03
โขCAGR: 20.31%
SHARE BUYBACKSโ
โข2018 Shares Outstanding: 426.40M
โขLTM Shares Outstanding: 393.30M
By reducing its shares outstanding ~7.7%, $ASML increased its EPS by ~8.3% (assuming 0 growth)
MARGINSโ
โขLTM Gross Margins: 52.0%
โขLTM Operating Margins: 33.8%
โขLTM Net Income Margins: 28.3%
***NOW TO VALUATION ๐ง
As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~18% MORE in EPS & 10% MORE in FCF per share
Using Benjamin Grahamโs 2G rule of thumb, $ASML has to grow earnings at a 13.17% CAGR over the next several years to justify its valuation
Today, analysts anticipate 2025 - 2027 EPS growth over the next few years to be more than the (13.17%) required growth rate:
2025E: $26.60 (21.6% YoY) *FY Dec
2026E: $30.75 (15.6% YoY)
2027E: $37.29 (20.7% YoY)
$ASML has a decent track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out. HOWEVER, letโs be conservative & assume $ASML ends 2027 with $35.00*** in EPS (~6% below current estimates) & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples:
29x P/E: $1,015๐ต โฆ ~17.0% CAGR
28x P/E: $980๐ต โฆ ~15.4% CAGR
27x P/E: $945๐ต โฆ ~13.9% CAGR
26x P/E: $910๐ต โฆ ~12.3% CAGR
25x P/E: $875๐ต โฆ ~10.7% CAGR
As you can see, $ASML appears to have attractive return potential EVEN if we assume greater or equal to 25x EPS (below its 10-year mean, current multiple, & justified given its quality, moat & growth rate)
Today at $687๐ต $ASML appears to be a strong consideration for investment, albeit with extreme volatility
Additionally, we have some margin of safety by relying on a lower multiple & lower growth rate
As Iโve stated before, given its volatility, however, itโs wise to piece into $ASML โ this way, you enhance your margin of safety while also positioning yourself to โwin-winโ if the stock moves up or down in the short-term ๐ต
#stocks #investing
___
๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐โผ๏ธ: ๐๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐๐๐ ๐๐ง๐ฏ๐๐ฌ๐ญ๐ฆ๐๐ง๐ญ ๐๐๐ฏ๐ข๐๐. ๐๐๐๐ฒ๐ฅ๐จ๐ง ๐๐๐ฉ๐ข๐ญ๐๐ฅยฎ ๐๐ง๐ ๐ข๐ญ๐ฌ ๐ซ๐๐ฉ๐ซ๐๐ฌ๐๐ง๐ญ๐๐ญ๐ข๐ฏ๐๐ฌ ๐ฆ๐๐ฒ ๐ก๐๐ฏ๐ ๐ฉ๐จ๐ฌ๐ข๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐ฌ๐๐๐ฎ๐ซ๐ข๐ญ๐ข๐๐ฌ ๐๐ข๐ฌ๐๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ฌ๐๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐๐๐ญ.
๐๐ก๐ ๐ข๐ง๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐๐จ๐ง๐ญ๐๐ข๐ง๐๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐๐๐ญ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง๐ญ๐๐ง๐๐๐ ๐๐จ๐ซ ๐ข๐ง๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐๐ฅ ๐ฉ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ฉ๐จ๐ฌ๐๐ฌ ๐จ๐ง๐ฅ๐ฒ ๐๐ง๐ ๐ฌ๐ก๐จ๐ฎ๐ฅ๐ ๐ง๐จ๐ญ ๐๐ ๐๐จ๐ง๐ฌ๐ญ๐ซ๐ฎ๐๐ ๐๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง๐ฏ๐๐ฌ๐ญ๐ฆ๐๐ง๐ญ ๐๐๐ฏ๐ข๐๐ ๐ญ๐จ ๐ฆ๐๐๐ญ ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐ฌ๐ฉ๐๐๐ข๐๐ข๐ ๐ง๐๐๐๐ฌ ๐จ๐ ๐๐ง๐ฒ ๐ข๐ง๐๐ข๐ฏ๐ข๐๐ฎ๐๐ฅ ๐จ๐ซ ๐ฌ๐ข๐ญ๐ฎ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง. ๐๐๐ฌ๐ญ ๐ฉ๐๐ซ๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ง๐๐ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ง๐จ ๐ ๐ฎ๐๐ซ๐๐ง๐ญ๐๐ ๐จ๐ ๐๐ฎ๐ญ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ ๐ซ๐๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ฅ๐ญ๐ฌ.
๐๐ง๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐๐จ๐ง๐ญ๐๐ข๐ง๐๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐๐๐ญ ๐ก๐๐ฌ ๐๐๐๐ง ๐จ๐๐ญ๐๐ข๐ง๐๐ ๐๐ซ๐จ๐ฆ ๐ฌ๏ฟฝ[...]
Offshore
โ Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capitalยฎ A quality valuation analysis on $ASML ๐ง๐ฝโโ๏ธ โขNTM P/E Ratio: 26.34x โข10-Year Mean: 31.08x โขNTM FCF Yield: 3.39% โข10-Year Mean: 3.09% As you can see, $ASML appears to be trading below fair value Going forward, investorsโฆ
๏ฟฝ๐ฎ๐ซ๐๐๐ฌ ๐๐๐ฅ๐ข๐๐ฏ๐๐ ๐ญ๐จ ๐๐ ๐ซ๐๐ฅ๐ข๐๐๐ฅ๐, ๐๐ฎ๐ญ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ง๐จ๐ญ ๐ ๐ฎ๐๐ซ๐๐ง๐ญ๐๐๐ ๐๐ฌ ๐ญ๐จ ๐๐จ๐ฆ๐ฉ๐ฅ๐๐ญ๐๐ง๐๐ฌ๐ฌ ๐จ๐ซ ๐๐๐๐ฎ๐ซ๐๐๐ฒ.
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โ Wall St Engine
Homeland Security says itโll now pay $1,000 to immigrants in the U.S. illegally if they choose to self-deport. The department is calling it โtravel assistance,โ and says itโs a cheaper alternative to formal deportation, which costs over $17,000 per person.
The program will use a new app called CBP Home, and payments are made once migrants confirm theyโve returned to their home country.
Source: Washington Times
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Homeland Security says itโll now pay $1,000 to immigrants in the U.S. illegally if they choose to self-deport. The department is calling it โtravel assistance,โ and says itโs a cheaper alternative to formal deportation, which costs over $17,000 per person.
The program will use a new app called CBP Home, and payments are made once migrants confirm theyโve returned to their home country.
Source: Washington Times
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Offshore
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โ Quiver Quantitative
JUST IN: Representative April McClain Delaney just filed new trades.
One of them caught our attention:
She bought Bio-Techne stock, $TECH.
Bio-Techne is a biotechnology company.
McClain Delaney sits on the House Committee on Science, Space, and Tech.
This is the first time we have seen her buy the stock, and we have only seen one other politician ever buy it.
Follow here for updates, or track portfolios live on Quiver.
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JUST IN: Representative April McClain Delaney just filed new trades.
One of them caught our attention:
She bought Bio-Techne stock, $TECH.
Bio-Techne is a biotechnology company.
McClain Delaney sits on the House Committee on Science, Space, and Tech.
This is the first time we have seen her buy the stock, and we have only seen one other politician ever buy it.
Follow here for updates, or track portfolios live on Quiver.
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Offshore
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โ Wall St Engine
ETORO TARGETS $4B VALUATION IN U.S. IPO
Trading platform eToro is looking to raise up to $500 million in a U.S. IPO, offering 10 million shares priced between $46 and $50. At the high end, that gives the company a valuation near $4 billion. The deal had been on hold since Trumpโs tariff announcement in April rattled markets and froze dealmaking.
eToro brought in $192 million in net income last year on $787 million in net contribution, and BlackRock has shown interest in picking up as much as $100 million worth of shares in the offering.
Source: Bloomberg
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ETORO TARGETS $4B VALUATION IN U.S. IPO
Trading platform eToro is looking to raise up to $500 million in a U.S. IPO, offering 10 million shares priced between $46 and $50. At the high end, that gives the company a valuation near $4 billion. The deal had been on hold since Trumpโs tariff announcement in April rattled markets and froze dealmaking.
eToro brought in $192 million in net income last year on $787 million in net contribution, and BlackRock has shown interest in picking up as much as $100 million worth of shares in the offering.
Source: Bloomberg
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Offshore
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โ Wall St Engine
Trump: I just had a very good and productive telephone conversation with the President of Turkey, Recep Erdoฤan, concerning many subjects, including the War with Russia/Ukraine, all things Syria, Gaza, and more. The President invited me to go to Turkey at a future date and, likewise, he will be coming to Washington, D.C.
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Trump: I just had a very good and productive telephone conversation with the President of Turkey, Recep Erdoฤan, concerning many subjects, including the War with Russia/Ukraine, all things Syria, Gaza, and more. The President invited me to go to Turkey at a future date and, likewise, he will be coming to Washington, D.C.
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โ Quiver Quantitative
RT @InsiderRadar: ๐จBREAKING: Huge New CEO Insider Purchase
The CEO of $MDXG has just reported purchasing ~$1.2m of the company's stock, increasing his ownership stake by 61%.
This is the largest insider purchase we have ever seen at the company.
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RT @InsiderRadar: ๐จBREAKING: Huge New CEO Insider Purchase
The CEO of $MDXG has just reported purchasing ~$1.2m of the company's stock, increasing his ownership stake by 61%.
This is the largest insider purchase we have ever seen at the company.
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