Wall St Engine
EVERCORE: U.S. ECONOMY SHOWING SOME RESILIENCE AMID TRADE UNCERTAINTY
"Economic data this week pointed to a resilient U.S. economy despite volatile trade policy. While headline GDP contracted by -0.3% in 1Q, underlying demand held firm. April payroll employment exceeded expectations, and S&P 500 earnings are trending at a $257 annual rate for 1Q. EVRISI company surveys rose this week—driven by strength in retailers, restaurants, and homebuilders—helped by weather effects, holiday-related spending, and tariff-driven pre-buying. At 48.4, the surveys still signal ongoing economic struggles, but support the case for modest growth in 2Q.
Short-term retail sales should benefit from stronger vehicle sales and additional pre-buying, but trade policy uncertainty remains a headwind. Many retailers have warned of price hikes through the rest of the year, and a number of firms have withdrawn full-year guidance. Sentiment surveys for both consumers and businesses continue to weaken.
While labor market and consumer fundamentals remain intact, there are signs of softening: small business hiring plans are declining, the job openings-to-unemployed ratio has narrowed, and weekly unemployment claims rose to 241,000. Inflation pressures persist, with the core PCE deflator up 3.5% quarter-over-quarter annualized in 1Q, driven by goods inflation. Wage growth has slowed based on both the Employment Cost Index and Average Hourly Earnings, but further deceleration may be limited—especially if tariffs lift broader price pressures.
Internationally, the Eurozone posted unexpectedly strong 1Q GDP, led by Germany and Spain, though U.S. tariffs could weigh on future growth. In contrast, China’s manufacturing PMI fell back into contractionary territory."
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EVERCORE: U.S. ECONOMY SHOWING SOME RESILIENCE AMID TRADE UNCERTAINTY
"Economic data this week pointed to a resilient U.S. economy despite volatile trade policy. While headline GDP contracted by -0.3% in 1Q, underlying demand held firm. April payroll employment exceeded expectations, and S&P 500 earnings are trending at a $257 annual rate for 1Q. EVRISI company surveys rose this week—driven by strength in retailers, restaurants, and homebuilders—helped by weather effects, holiday-related spending, and tariff-driven pre-buying. At 48.4, the surveys still signal ongoing economic struggles, but support the case for modest growth in 2Q.
Short-term retail sales should benefit from stronger vehicle sales and additional pre-buying, but trade policy uncertainty remains a headwind. Many retailers have warned of price hikes through the rest of the year, and a number of firms have withdrawn full-year guidance. Sentiment surveys for both consumers and businesses continue to weaken.
While labor market and consumer fundamentals remain intact, there are signs of softening: small business hiring plans are declining, the job openings-to-unemployed ratio has narrowed, and weekly unemployment claims rose to 241,000. Inflation pressures persist, with the core PCE deflator up 3.5% quarter-over-quarter annualized in 1Q, driven by goods inflation. Wage growth has slowed based on both the Employment Cost Index and Average Hourly Earnings, but further deceleration may be limited—especially if tariffs lift broader price pressures.
Internationally, the Eurozone posted unexpectedly strong 1Q GDP, led by Germany and Spain, though U.S. tariffs could weigh on future growth. In contrast, China’s manufacturing PMI fell back into contractionary territory."
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iinvested
1Q'25 Heartland Opportunistic Value Equity on $DCI, $TDY, $JBHT
More fund letters here:
https://t.co/NM0463QOZj https://t.co/IblaQgj8Yb
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1Q'25 Heartland Opportunistic Value Equity on $DCI, $TDY, $JBHT
More fund letters here:
https://t.co/NM0463QOZj https://t.co/IblaQgj8Yb
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Wall St Engine
"AI Spending Is the Only Certainty in Silicon Valley Right Now" https://t.co/ogCIvl9WOB
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"AI Spending Is the Only Certainty in Silicon Valley Right Now" https://t.co/ogCIvl9WOB
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Wall St Engine
S&P 500 earnings are tracking 12.5% growth this quarter—double what was expected. https://t.co/fmDxBnfSJ5
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S&P 500 earnings are tracking 12.5% growth this quarter—double what was expected. https://t.co/fmDxBnfSJ5
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Wall St Engine
Mentions of “recession” on S&P 500 earnings call has surged to the highest level since 2023. https://t.co/EMuMPnLPr5
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Mentions of “recession” on S&P 500 earnings call has surged to the highest level since 2023. https://t.co/EMuMPnLPr5
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Wall St Engine
PERSHING SQUARE INVESTS $900M IN $HHH, TAKES 47% STAKE
Bill Ackman's Pershing Square is investing $900 million to buy 9 million newly issued shares of Howard Hughes Holdings at $100/share—a 48% premium to Friday’s close. The move will shift HHH into a diversified holding company beyond real estate, with Bill Ackman named Executive Chairman and Ryan Israel as CIO. Pershing will cap its voting power at 40%, and its total look-through investment now stands at $1.2 billion.
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PERSHING SQUARE INVESTS $900M IN $HHH, TAKES 47% STAKE
Bill Ackman's Pershing Square is investing $900 million to buy 9 million newly issued shares of Howard Hughes Holdings at $100/share—a 48% premium to Friday’s close. The move will shift HHH into a diversified holding company beyond real estate, with Bill Ackman named Executive Chairman and Ryan Israel as CIO. Pershing will cap its voting power at 40%, and its total look-through investment now stands at $1.2 billion.
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Wall St Engine
$SKX TO GO PRIVATE IN $6.5B DEAL
Skechers has agreed to be acquired by 3G Capital for $63 per share in cash, valuing the company at roughly $6.5 billion. The deal includes an alternative option of $57 in cash plus an equity unit in a new private holding company, though that’s limited to 20% of shares. The offer represents a 30% premium to Skechers’ 15-day average price.
CEO Robert Greenberg will stay on, and the company will remain headquartered in Manhattan Beach. Closing is expected in Q3 2025.
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$SKX TO GO PRIVATE IN $6.5B DEAL
Skechers has agreed to be acquired by 3G Capital for $63 per share in cash, valuing the company at roughly $6.5 billion. The deal includes an alternative option of $57 in cash plus an equity unit in a new private holding company, though that’s limited to 20% of shares. The offer represents a 30% premium to Skechers’ 15-day average price.
CEO Robert Greenberg will stay on, and the company will remain headquartered in Manhattan Beach. Closing is expected in Q3 2025.
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