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I’ve decided to make more content public, previously only available to X-subs.
I don’t want to gate anything that could help followers make better investing decisions.
If you’d like to support my work, feel free to become a sub, that’s why most others have joined so far: https://t.co/gscnB9Aa3P
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I’ve decided to make more content public, previously only available to X-subs.
I don’t want to gate anything that could help followers make better investing decisions.
If you’d like to support my work, feel free to become a sub, that’s why most others have joined so far: https://t.co/gscnB9Aa3P
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Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
RT @DimitryNakhla: Less than 2 months ago I highlighted that $BKNG stock “finally reached my $4,300 price target”
Since then, $BKNG has surged +19%✅
You can find the original valuation analysis in the post attached below👇🏽 https://t.co/xNeY3JwcYt
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RT @DimitryNakhla: Less than 2 months ago I highlighted that $BKNG stock “finally reached my $4,300 price target”
Since then, $BKNG has surged +19%✅
You can find the original valuation analysis in the post attached below👇🏽 https://t.co/xNeY3JwcYt
$BKNG stock finally reached my $4,300 price target & bounced +4% 💸
While this is nice in the short-term, I’d much prefer $BKNG to trade in my accumulation range a bit longer so I can continue adding to the position
As I stated a couple months ago:
“I’d consider $BKNG a great purchase closer to $4300 (~18.50x multiple) roughly 7% below today’s share price or closer to 21x NTM estimates
This is where I can reasonably expect ~10.50% CAGR assuming a more conservative 20x 2027 earnings estimates, ensuring a substantial margin of safety & leaving room for potential multiple expansion” tweet
Wall St Engine
HERE’S WHAT ANALYSTS HAVE TO SAY AFTER $AAPL Q2 EARNINGS:
Jefferies (Underperform, PT: $170.62)
"Apple reported 5%/5%/8% rev/NP/EPS growth for 2QFY25, in line with cons and above JEFe. Mgt indicated limited pull in for the Mar Q, but guided only LSD-MSD rev growth and US$900m tariff impact in the next Q. [...] Product GM is already under pressure, down 0.7ppt YoY. We believe tariff impact will expand over time to create more earnings downside. D/G to Underperform."
Rosenblatt (Neutral, PT: $217)
"The F2Q25 quarter just reported highlights a company with amazing supply chain skill, and better demand for iPhones than many had feared. Still, for this stock to really work there needs to be an AI driven sharp acceleration in iPhone sales. And as time has gone on the argument for that seems to be fading. We're left with a well-run company, with OK-muted growth, a need for an exciting new product to reinvigorate growth trading at a premium multiple, in a choppy tariff and regulatory environment."
DA Davidson (Buy, PT: $250)
"We reiterate our BUY rating and raise our price target from $230 to $250 on AAPL following solid 2Q25 earnings that were largely underscored by accelerating iPhone growth despite weaker than expected sales in Greater China. [...] Additionally, this quarter, AAPL's board of directors authorized a share buyback program of $100B."
Morgan Stanley (Overweight, PT: $235)
"Mgmt's underlying commentary was better than expected, including (1) double digit Y/Y growth in iPhone upgraders, (2) China revenue flat Y/Y in CC, (3) Apple had the top 2 selling smartphones in Urban China, and (4) no demand or channel pull-forward in the March quarter, and none assumed in June quarter guidance. [...] SE Asia production diversification is working. [...] Mgmt wasn't able to provide any segment-level guidance for the June Q (not even Services) [...] and didn’t provide an updated timeline for the new Siri introduction."
BofA Securities (Buy, PT: $240)
"Apple intends to comply with the court order but also intends to appeal. [...] We size the potential impact from the [App Store] ruling to the company below. Maintain Buy on earnings resiliency and gross margin upside with optionality to address new markets over time."
Loop Capital (Hold, PT: $215)
"We are reducing our PT to $215 from $230 and updating our AAPL estimates given fresh iPhone build updates [...] While we remain Hold rated, we note below that ironically there is a world where AAPL’s actions provide a much-needed bridge into the iPhone 17 launch (and iPhone 18), which demand and investor 'enthusiasm' willing the stock could find support tariffs notwithstanding."
Barclays (Underweight, PT: $173)
"We are lowering Sep-Q and FY26 unit estimates for iPhones due to demand slowdown, potentially price hikes and Siri delay, pushing out AI Intelligence adoption. [...] We are also taking down C2H25 unit estimates for wearables and AirPods as they are more economically sensitive."
Raymond James (Outperform, PT: $230)
"We believe Apple has enough manufacturing capacity outside China to address about half of U.S. iPhone demand [...] Our model assumes 15% blended tariff rate on all imports [...] We expect the stock to remain volatile in the near term on tariff news flow but view any pullback as an opportunity to add to positions."
JPMorgan (Overweight, PT: $245)
"We are positive on AAPL shares [...] expect modest pull-forward in demand, partly driven by consumer upgrades and partly by channel inventory fill ahead of potential price raises [...] While understandably there are already expectations for pull-forwards to challenge calendar 2H 2025 demand, we think [...] we still see a path to our $245 price target."
Citi (Buy, PT: $240)
"Apple posted a 3c beat on the Mar-Q on better iPhone sa[...]
HERE’S WHAT ANALYSTS HAVE TO SAY AFTER $AAPL Q2 EARNINGS:
Jefferies (Underperform, PT: $170.62)
"Apple reported 5%/5%/8% rev/NP/EPS growth for 2QFY25, in line with cons and above JEFe. Mgt indicated limited pull in for the Mar Q, but guided only LSD-MSD rev growth and US$900m tariff impact in the next Q. [...] Product GM is already under pressure, down 0.7ppt YoY. We believe tariff impact will expand over time to create more earnings downside. D/G to Underperform."
Rosenblatt (Neutral, PT: $217)
"The F2Q25 quarter just reported highlights a company with amazing supply chain skill, and better demand for iPhones than many had feared. Still, for this stock to really work there needs to be an AI driven sharp acceleration in iPhone sales. And as time has gone on the argument for that seems to be fading. We're left with a well-run company, with OK-muted growth, a need for an exciting new product to reinvigorate growth trading at a premium multiple, in a choppy tariff and regulatory environment."
DA Davidson (Buy, PT: $250)
"We reiterate our BUY rating and raise our price target from $230 to $250 on AAPL following solid 2Q25 earnings that were largely underscored by accelerating iPhone growth despite weaker than expected sales in Greater China. [...] Additionally, this quarter, AAPL's board of directors authorized a share buyback program of $100B."
Morgan Stanley (Overweight, PT: $235)
"Mgmt's underlying commentary was better than expected, including (1) double digit Y/Y growth in iPhone upgraders, (2) China revenue flat Y/Y in CC, (3) Apple had the top 2 selling smartphones in Urban China, and (4) no demand or channel pull-forward in the March quarter, and none assumed in June quarter guidance. [...] SE Asia production diversification is working. [...] Mgmt wasn't able to provide any segment-level guidance for the June Q (not even Services) [...] and didn’t provide an updated timeline for the new Siri introduction."
BofA Securities (Buy, PT: $240)
"Apple intends to comply with the court order but also intends to appeal. [...] We size the potential impact from the [App Store] ruling to the company below. Maintain Buy on earnings resiliency and gross margin upside with optionality to address new markets over time."
Loop Capital (Hold, PT: $215)
"We are reducing our PT to $215 from $230 and updating our AAPL estimates given fresh iPhone build updates [...] While we remain Hold rated, we note below that ironically there is a world where AAPL’s actions provide a much-needed bridge into the iPhone 17 launch (and iPhone 18), which demand and investor 'enthusiasm' willing the stock could find support tariffs notwithstanding."
Barclays (Underweight, PT: $173)
"We are lowering Sep-Q and FY26 unit estimates for iPhones due to demand slowdown, potentially price hikes and Siri delay, pushing out AI Intelligence adoption. [...] We are also taking down C2H25 unit estimates for wearables and AirPods as they are more economically sensitive."
Raymond James (Outperform, PT: $230)
"We believe Apple has enough manufacturing capacity outside China to address about half of U.S. iPhone demand [...] Our model assumes 15% blended tariff rate on all imports [...] We expect the stock to remain volatile in the near term on tariff news flow but view any pullback as an opportunity to add to positions."
JPMorgan (Overweight, PT: $245)
"We are positive on AAPL shares [...] expect modest pull-forward in demand, partly driven by consumer upgrades and partly by channel inventory fill ahead of potential price raises [...] While understandably there are already expectations for pull-forwards to challenge calendar 2H 2025 demand, we think [...] we still see a path to our $245 price target."
Citi (Buy, PT: $240)
"Apple posted a 3c beat on the Mar-Q on better iPhone sa[...]
Offshore
Wall St Engine HERE’S WHAT ANALYSTS HAVE TO SAY AFTER $AAPL Q2 EARNINGS: Jefferies (Underperform, PT: $170.62) "Apple reported 5%/5%/8% rev/NP/EPS growth for 2QFY25, in line with cons and above JEFe. Mgt indicated limited pull in for the Mar Q, but guided…
les +2% Y/Y, in-line services +12% Y/Y, and in-line 47.1% GM. Greater China sales stabilized -2% Y/Y (flat ex-FX) improving from -11% Y/Y in the Dec-Q led by iPhones stimulated by China subsidies. Jun-Q guide of LSD-MSD Y/Y total sales growth vs Street ~4% on lower 46% GM% due to $900M tariff cost impact implies EPS ~4c below Street. The company raised dividend by 4% and authorized an additional $100Bn share repurchase program. We adjust our FY25/26/27 EPS -7c/-5c/-11c due to tariffs and lower TP to $240 on consistent 28x P/E on revised FY27 EPS of $8.60. Net-net, Apple’s fundamentals remain intact, and the company delivered decent results/guide in a tough tariff environment. Maintain Buy on valuation as stock screens defensive on P/FCF and ROIC vs Mag 7."
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Quiver Quantitative
Palantir stock is now up 58% since Marjorie Taylor Greene bought it last month: https://t.co/3gjTXigFPj
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Palantir stock is now up 58% since Marjorie Taylor Greene bought it last month: https://t.co/3gjTXigFPj
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App Economy Insights
RT @EconomyApp: $AMZN Amazon Q1 FY25:
• Revenue +9% Y/Y to $155.7B ($0.6B beat).
• Operating margin 12% (+1pp Y/Y).
• EPS $1.59 ($0.23 beat).
• Q2 Guidance: ~$161.5B ($0.4B beat).
☁️ AWS:
• Revenue +17% Y/Y to $29.3B.
• Operating margin 39% (+2pp Y/Y). https://t.co/1l7maTFnVx
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RT @EconomyApp: $AMZN Amazon Q1 FY25:
• Revenue +9% Y/Y to $155.7B ($0.6B beat).
• Operating margin 12% (+1pp Y/Y).
• EPS $1.59 ($0.23 beat).
• Q2 Guidance: ~$161.5B ($0.4B beat).
☁️ AWS:
• Revenue +17% Y/Y to $29.3B.
• Operating margin 39% (+2pp Y/Y). https://t.co/1l7maTFnVx
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Wall St Engine
HERE’S WHAT ANALYSTS HAVE TO SAY AFTER $AMZN Q1 EARNINGS:
Morgan Stanley (Overweight, PT: $250)
"We remain confident AMZN will emerge stronger after this period and that its logistics leadership and GenAI-enabled advances will position it for even more (and more profitable) multi-year retail share gains. But, for now, 2H:25 and '26 visibility on the cost to deliver a leading experience for buyers and sellers remains low. [...] Our PT rises 2% to $250 (~35X '26 EPS), and we remain OW as we look for visibility on China tariffs as a catalyst for estimate revisions. Until then, we view AMZN as largely range bound, trading ~$150-$200."
Bank of America (Buy, PT: $230)
"Amazon has 'material' 3P seller revenue exposure to China and other imports, and AWS lost some ground to Azure in 1Q. [...] AWS is not seeing the benefit of ChatGPT usage like Azure, corporate spend remains steady [...] AWS growth could potentially accelerate in 2H as capacity ramps up. [...] We are raising our PO to $230 from $225 on higher estimates and stable SOP multiples."
Evercore ISI (Outperform, PT: $260)
"Shares traded off modestly on the soft Q2 Op Income guide and the lack of AWS acceleration given very strong Azure results, but we view the core near-term and long-term thesis as well intact. [...] AWS revenue growth remained consistent at 17% Y/Y, and backlog growth accelerated to 20% Y/Y – a good sign. [...] RH Operating Margins in every segment reflects ongoing and sustainable cost efficiencies."
Goldman Sachs (Buy, PT: $220)
"Q1 results slightly above the high-end of the guide across revenue and Operating Income [...] AWS revenue growth of +17% YoY was better than feared in Q1 and AMZN once again framed an expectation that the addition of new capacity in 2H25 will support AWS revenue growth. [...] We remain constructive [...] Amazon can produce a solid mix of compounded revenue growth and operating margin expansion."
Stifel (Buy, PT: $245)
"1Q headline results were better but AWS was marginally below expectations. [...] AWS growth was marginally light, but the forward commentary remains positive (capacity being consumed the moment it becomes available), and backlog growth accelerated by ~600bps. [...] Overall, we remain positive on AMZN, and only slightly revise our forward estimates."
Cantor Fitzgerald (Overweight, PT: $240)
"AWS margins expanded 250bps Q/Q to 39.5% - the highest levels on record. [...] Despite near-term uncertainties, our long-term thesis on AMZN is intact - AMZN stands to gain the most competitively during macro disruptions in both AWS and Retail businesses over the long term."
HSBC (Buy, PT: $240)
"We continue to see AMZN as exceptionally well placed and exposed to all the right structural themes. [...] AWS matters above all else (AWS is still 70% of our DCF-based SOTP value for AMZN). [...] We still see implied upside of 26% to our revised USD240 TP."
JMP Securities (Market Outperform, PT: $250)
"AWS OIM came in well above expectations. [...] AMZN's advertising business remained robust. [...] Management noted demand remains strong and growth would have been higher if not for capacity constraints which are expected to ease in 2H25."
BofA Securities (Buy, PT: $230)
"AWS lost some ground to Azure [...] Cloud growth can be lumpy [...] AWS growth could potentially accelerate in 2H as capacity ramps up. [...] We are raising our PO to $230 from $225."
Susquehanna (Positive, PT: $225)
"AMZN's 1Q was generally solid [...] AWS growth was 17% y/y ex-FX [...] We continue to view AMZN as a long-term secular grower underpinned by its strong eCommerce, cloud/AI, and advertising businesses."
Piper Sandler
"AMZN remains relentless on lowering cost to serve and appears on the cusp of an AI product cycle, although macro creates uncertainty."
[...]
HERE’S WHAT ANALYSTS HAVE TO SAY AFTER $AMZN Q1 EARNINGS:
Morgan Stanley (Overweight, PT: $250)
"We remain confident AMZN will emerge stronger after this period and that its logistics leadership and GenAI-enabled advances will position it for even more (and more profitable) multi-year retail share gains. But, for now, 2H:25 and '26 visibility on the cost to deliver a leading experience for buyers and sellers remains low. [...] Our PT rises 2% to $250 (~35X '26 EPS), and we remain OW as we look for visibility on China tariffs as a catalyst for estimate revisions. Until then, we view AMZN as largely range bound, trading ~$150-$200."
Bank of America (Buy, PT: $230)
"Amazon has 'material' 3P seller revenue exposure to China and other imports, and AWS lost some ground to Azure in 1Q. [...] AWS is not seeing the benefit of ChatGPT usage like Azure, corporate spend remains steady [...] AWS growth could potentially accelerate in 2H as capacity ramps up. [...] We are raising our PO to $230 from $225 on higher estimates and stable SOP multiples."
Evercore ISI (Outperform, PT: $260)
"Shares traded off modestly on the soft Q2 Op Income guide and the lack of AWS acceleration given very strong Azure results, but we view the core near-term and long-term thesis as well intact. [...] AWS revenue growth remained consistent at 17% Y/Y, and backlog growth accelerated to 20% Y/Y – a good sign. [...] RH Operating Margins in every segment reflects ongoing and sustainable cost efficiencies."
Goldman Sachs (Buy, PT: $220)
"Q1 results slightly above the high-end of the guide across revenue and Operating Income [...] AWS revenue growth of +17% YoY was better than feared in Q1 and AMZN once again framed an expectation that the addition of new capacity in 2H25 will support AWS revenue growth. [...] We remain constructive [...] Amazon can produce a solid mix of compounded revenue growth and operating margin expansion."
Stifel (Buy, PT: $245)
"1Q headline results were better but AWS was marginally below expectations. [...] AWS growth was marginally light, but the forward commentary remains positive (capacity being consumed the moment it becomes available), and backlog growth accelerated by ~600bps. [...] Overall, we remain positive on AMZN, and only slightly revise our forward estimates."
Cantor Fitzgerald (Overweight, PT: $240)
"AWS margins expanded 250bps Q/Q to 39.5% - the highest levels on record. [...] Despite near-term uncertainties, our long-term thesis on AMZN is intact - AMZN stands to gain the most competitively during macro disruptions in both AWS and Retail businesses over the long term."
HSBC (Buy, PT: $240)
"We continue to see AMZN as exceptionally well placed and exposed to all the right structural themes. [...] AWS matters above all else (AWS is still 70% of our DCF-based SOTP value for AMZN). [...] We still see implied upside of 26% to our revised USD240 TP."
JMP Securities (Market Outperform, PT: $250)
"AWS OIM came in well above expectations. [...] AMZN's advertising business remained robust. [...] Management noted demand remains strong and growth would have been higher if not for capacity constraints which are expected to ease in 2H25."
BofA Securities (Buy, PT: $230)
"AWS lost some ground to Azure [...] Cloud growth can be lumpy [...] AWS growth could potentially accelerate in 2H as capacity ramps up. [...] We are raising our PO to $230 from $225."
Susquehanna (Positive, PT: $225)
"AMZN's 1Q was generally solid [...] AWS growth was 17% y/y ex-FX [...] We continue to view AMZN as a long-term secular grower underpinned by its strong eCommerce, cloud/AI, and advertising businesses."
Piper Sandler
"AMZN remains relentless on lowering cost to serve and appears on the cusp of an AI product cycle, although macro creates uncertainty."
[...]