Wall St Engine
Raymond James Cites “Margin Upside and Growth Acceleration” as It Maintains Strong Buy on $SHAK, Lowers PT to $140 from $145
Analyst comments: "We reiterate our Strong Buy rating on Shake Shack following the company’s first-quarter earnings release. Softer near-term trends are more than offset, in our view, by: (1) strong evidence of tighter operations and increased accountability that led to margin upside in Q1; (2) raised multi-year margin guidance (at least +50 basis points), supporting our view that there are significant opportunities to improve kitchen operations and guest experience by leveraging new equipment, processes, and layouts (including the newly opened kitchen innovation lab); and (3) accelerating high-ROI unit growth, with 2025 company-owned units now guided to 45–50, making mid-teens percentage unit growth more likely than the low-teens guidance previously expected for the next few years.
We are optimistic that a recent return to positive comps in the last two weeks of April can sustain through Q2 (helped by a new limited-time offer just launched, compared to no news in Q1), with significant new menu innovation expected in the second half of 2025, following the addition of a new SVP of culinary/menu. We are slightly raising our EBITDA estimates despite trimming our 2025 comps, and we are lowering our 12-month price target to $140, supported by our DCF analysis."
Analyst: Brian Vaccaro
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Raymond James Cites “Margin Upside and Growth Acceleration” as It Maintains Strong Buy on $SHAK, Lowers PT to $140 from $145
Analyst comments: "We reiterate our Strong Buy rating on Shake Shack following the company’s first-quarter earnings release. Softer near-term trends are more than offset, in our view, by: (1) strong evidence of tighter operations and increased accountability that led to margin upside in Q1; (2) raised multi-year margin guidance (at least +50 basis points), supporting our view that there are significant opportunities to improve kitchen operations and guest experience by leveraging new equipment, processes, and layouts (including the newly opened kitchen innovation lab); and (3) accelerating high-ROI unit growth, with 2025 company-owned units now guided to 45–50, making mid-teens percentage unit growth more likely than the low-teens guidance previously expected for the next few years.
We are optimistic that a recent return to positive comps in the last two weeks of April can sustain through Q2 (helped by a new limited-time offer just launched, compared to no news in Q1), with significant new menu innovation expected in the second half of 2025, following the addition of a new SVP of culinary/menu. We are slightly raising our EBITDA estimates despite trimming our 2025 comps, and we are lowering our 12-month price target to $140, supported by our DCF analysis."
Analyst: Brian Vaccaro
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Wall St Engine
$CI | The Cigna Group Q1 Earnings Highlights
🔹 Adj EPS: $6.74 (Est. $6.35) 🟢; +4% YoY
🔹 Revenue: $65.45 B (Est. $60.46 B) 🟢; +14% YoY
🔹 MCR: 82.2 % (Est. 82.4%) 🟢; +230 bps YoY
🔹 Adj Income from Operations: $1.84 B; –2% YoY
FY25 Guide:
🔹 Adj. EPS: ≥ $29.60 (Prior ≥ $29.50; Est. $29.60) 🟡
🔹 Evernorth Adj. Op. Income (pre-tax): ≥ $7.20 B
🔹 Cigna Healthcare Adj. Op. Income (pre-tax): ≥ $4.125 B
🔹 Cigna Healthcare MCR Outlook: 83.2 % – 84.2 %
Segment Performance
Evernorth Health Services
🔹 Adjusted Revenue: $53.68 B; +16 % YoY
• Pharmacy Benefit Services: $29.74 B; +14 % YoY
• Specialty & Care Services: $23.94 B; +19 % YoY
🔹 Pre-tax Adj. Op. Income: $1.43 B; +5 % YoY
🔹 Pre-tax Margin: 2.7 % (–20 bps YoY)
Cigna Healthcare
🔹 Adjusted Revenue: $14.48 B; +9 % YoY
🔹 Pre-tax Adj. Op. Income: $1.29 B; –4 % YoY
🔹 Medical Care Ratio: 82.2 % (+230 bps YoY)
Customer Metrics
🔹 Total Pharmacy Customers: 122.3 M; +3 % QoQ
🔹 Total Medical Customers: 18.0 M; –6 % QoQ (ex-Medicare divestiture, flat)
Commentary & Strategic Updates
🔸 CEO David Cordani: “Our diversified growth engines—Evernorth and Cigna Healthcare—drove a strong start to 2025; increased transparency and affordability remain core.”
🔸 Completed $3.7 B Medicare-business divestiture to HCSC on Mar 19 2025.
🔸 Repurchased 8.2 M shares YTD for $2.6 B; reiterates commitment to balanced capital deployment.
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$CI | The Cigna Group Q1 Earnings Highlights
🔹 Adj EPS: $6.74 (Est. $6.35) 🟢; +4% YoY
🔹 Revenue: $65.45 B (Est. $60.46 B) 🟢; +14% YoY
🔹 MCR: 82.2 % (Est. 82.4%) 🟢; +230 bps YoY
🔹 Adj Income from Operations: $1.84 B; –2% YoY
FY25 Guide:
🔹 Adj. EPS: ≥ $29.60 (Prior ≥ $29.50; Est. $29.60) 🟡
🔹 Evernorth Adj. Op. Income (pre-tax): ≥ $7.20 B
🔹 Cigna Healthcare Adj. Op. Income (pre-tax): ≥ $4.125 B
🔹 Cigna Healthcare MCR Outlook: 83.2 % – 84.2 %
Segment Performance
Evernorth Health Services
🔹 Adjusted Revenue: $53.68 B; +16 % YoY
• Pharmacy Benefit Services: $29.74 B; +14 % YoY
• Specialty & Care Services: $23.94 B; +19 % YoY
🔹 Pre-tax Adj. Op. Income: $1.43 B; +5 % YoY
🔹 Pre-tax Margin: 2.7 % (–20 bps YoY)
Cigna Healthcare
🔹 Adjusted Revenue: $14.48 B; +9 % YoY
🔹 Pre-tax Adj. Op. Income: $1.29 B; –4 % YoY
🔹 Medical Care Ratio: 82.2 % (+230 bps YoY)
Customer Metrics
🔹 Total Pharmacy Customers: 122.3 M; +3 % QoQ
🔹 Total Medical Customers: 18.0 M; –6 % QoQ (ex-Medicare divestiture, flat)
Commentary & Strategic Updates
🔸 CEO David Cordani: “Our diversified growth engines—Evernorth and Cigna Healthcare—drove a strong start to 2025; increased transparency and affordability remain core.”
🔸 Completed $3.7 B Medicare-business divestiture to HCSC on Mar 19 2025.
🔸 Repurchased 8.2 M shares YTD for $2.6 B; reiterates commitment to balanced capital deployment.
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Wall St Engine
$CVX | Chevron Q1'25 Earnings Highlights
🔹 Adj EPS: $2.18 (Est. $2.11) 🟢; –26 % YoY
🔹 Revenue: $47.61 B (Est. $48.08 B) 🔴; –6 % YoY
🔹 Cash Flow from Ops: $5.28 B (Est. $6.82 B) 🔴
🔹 Free Cash Flow (ex-WC): $3.7 B (–5 % YoY)
🔹 Repurchase About $2.75B In Q2, 30% less than Q1
🔹 Guide Range For Annual Buybacks Of $10B To $20B Unchanged
Segment Performance
Upstream
🔹 Earnings: $3.76 B (Est. $4.13 B) 🔴; –28 % YoY
🔹 Net Production: 3,353 MBOE/d (flat YoY)
🔹 U.S. Liquids Realization: $55.26/bbl (–4 %)
🔹 Intl. Liquids Realization: $67.69/bbl (–7 %)
Downstream
🔹 Earnings: $325 M (Est. $427 M) 🔴; –59 % YoY
🔹 U.S. Refinery Inputs: 1,018 kbd (+16 % YoY)
🔹 Intl. Refinery Inputs: 618 kbd (–5 % YoY)
All Other / Corporate
🔹 Net Charges: –$583 M (vs. –$521 M YoY)
Balance-Sheet & Capital
🔹 Capex: $3.9 B (–5 % YoY)
🔹 Net-Debt Ratio: 14.4 % (vs 8.8 % YoY)
🔹 Board declared Q2 dividend $1.71/sh (payable Jun 10 2025)
🔹 Shareholder Returns: $6.9 B ( $3.9 B buybacks + $3.0 B dividends)
Operational & Strategic Updates
🔸 Production ramp-up at Tengizchevroil after Future Growth Project completion (+20 % YoY output).
🔸 First oil achieved at Ballymore (deep-water Gulf of America) on time & on budget.
🔸 Acquired 4.99 % of Hess shares; remains confident in full Hess acquisition.
🔸 Completed sales of East Texas gas assets and select non-operated U.S. mid-stream assets; proceeds funding buybacks.
🔸 Announced simplified org structure targeting $2-3 B structural cost reduction by 2026.
Management Commentary
🔸 CEO Mike Wirth: “Resilient portfolio, strong balance sheet, and disciplined capital allocation position Chevron to deliver industry-leading free-cash-flow growth by 2026 despite changing market conditions.”
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$CVX | Chevron Q1'25 Earnings Highlights
🔹 Adj EPS: $2.18 (Est. $2.11) 🟢; –26 % YoY
🔹 Revenue: $47.61 B (Est. $48.08 B) 🔴; –6 % YoY
🔹 Cash Flow from Ops: $5.28 B (Est. $6.82 B) 🔴
🔹 Free Cash Flow (ex-WC): $3.7 B (–5 % YoY)
🔹 Repurchase About $2.75B In Q2, 30% less than Q1
🔹 Guide Range For Annual Buybacks Of $10B To $20B Unchanged
Segment Performance
Upstream
🔹 Earnings: $3.76 B (Est. $4.13 B) 🔴; –28 % YoY
🔹 Net Production: 3,353 MBOE/d (flat YoY)
🔹 U.S. Liquids Realization: $55.26/bbl (–4 %)
🔹 Intl. Liquids Realization: $67.69/bbl (–7 %)
Downstream
🔹 Earnings: $325 M (Est. $427 M) 🔴; –59 % YoY
🔹 U.S. Refinery Inputs: 1,018 kbd (+16 % YoY)
🔹 Intl. Refinery Inputs: 618 kbd (–5 % YoY)
All Other / Corporate
🔹 Net Charges: –$583 M (vs. –$521 M YoY)
Balance-Sheet & Capital
🔹 Capex: $3.9 B (–5 % YoY)
🔹 Net-Debt Ratio: 14.4 % (vs 8.8 % YoY)
🔹 Board declared Q2 dividend $1.71/sh (payable Jun 10 2025)
🔹 Shareholder Returns: $6.9 B ( $3.9 B buybacks + $3.0 B dividends)
Operational & Strategic Updates
🔸 Production ramp-up at Tengizchevroil after Future Growth Project completion (+20 % YoY output).
🔸 First oil achieved at Ballymore (deep-water Gulf of America) on time & on budget.
🔸 Acquired 4.99 % of Hess shares; remains confident in full Hess acquisition.
🔸 Completed sales of East Texas gas assets and select non-operated U.S. mid-stream assets; proceeds funding buybacks.
🔸 Announced simplified org structure targeting $2-3 B structural cost reduction by 2026.
Management Commentary
🔸 CEO Mike Wirth: “Resilient portfolio, strong balance sheet, and disciplined capital allocation position Chevron to deliver industry-leading free-cash-flow growth by 2026 despite changing market conditions.”
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Wall St Engine
The S&P 500’s on an 8-day win streak, up 8.7%. If we close green today, that’s 9 straight—longest run since Nov 2004. And just saying, if this run keeps going & hits 14 days, that’d be the longest streak ever on record— last time something like that happened was back in the '70s. https://t.co/1edY54BBB5
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The S&P 500’s on an 8-day win streak, up 8.7%. If we close green today, that’s 9 straight—longest run since Nov 2004. And just saying, if this run keeps going & hits 14 days, that’d be the longest streak ever on record— last time something like that happened was back in the '70s. https://t.co/1edY54BBB5
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Wall St Engine
$XOM | Exxon Mobil Q1'25 Earnings Highlights
🔹 Adj EPS: $1.76 (Est. $1.76) 🟡
🔹 Total Revenue & Other Income: $83.13 B (Est. $81.35 B) 🟢
🔹 Cash Flow from Operations: $13.0 B; Free Cash Flow: $8.8 B
🔹 Shareholder Distributions: $9.1 B ($4.3 B dividends + $4.8 B buybacks)
🔹 Net-Debt-to-Capital: 7 % (down 5 pp YoY)
Guidance / Capital
🔹 FY-25 Net Cash Capex: $27 B – $29 B (re-affirmed)
🔹 Annual Share-Repurchase Program: up to $20 B/yr through 2026
Segment Performance
Upstream
🔹 Earnings: $6.76 B; + $1.10 B YoY
🔹 Production: 4,551 koe b/d (Est. 4,609) 🔴; +20 % YoY (Permian + Guyana growth, Pioneer deal)
Energy Products (Refining & Fuels)
🔹 Earnings: $827 M; –40 % YoY on weaker industry margins
🔹 Refinery Throughput: 3,810 kbd (Est. 3,837) 🔴
Chemical Products
🔹 Earnings: $273 M; –65 % YoY on lower margins & start-up costs
🔹 Chemical Sales: 4.78 Mt
Specialty Products
🔹 Earnings: $655 M; –14 % YoY; resilient high-value lubes & additives mix
Operational & Strategic Updates
🔸 Started up China Chemical Complex (1.7 Mt/yr PE, 850 kt/yr PP) ahead of schedule & under budget.
🔸 Second advanced-recycling unit (Baytown) online; doubles plastic-waste processing to 80 M lb/yr.
🔸 Ten “advantaged” projects slated for 2025 start-up, expected to add >$3 B earnings by 2026 at constant prices.
🔸 Cumulative structural cost savings vs 2019 now $12.7 B; targeting $18 B by 2030.
Management Commentary
🔸 CEO Darren Woods: “Our eight-year transformation leaves us built for any environment. Advantaged growth volumes, disciplined capital, and $13 B quarterly operating cash show we’re on track to deliver through 2030 and beyond.”
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$XOM | Exxon Mobil Q1'25 Earnings Highlights
🔹 Adj EPS: $1.76 (Est. $1.76) 🟡
🔹 Total Revenue & Other Income: $83.13 B (Est. $81.35 B) 🟢
🔹 Cash Flow from Operations: $13.0 B; Free Cash Flow: $8.8 B
🔹 Shareholder Distributions: $9.1 B ($4.3 B dividends + $4.8 B buybacks)
🔹 Net-Debt-to-Capital: 7 % (down 5 pp YoY)
Guidance / Capital
🔹 FY-25 Net Cash Capex: $27 B – $29 B (re-affirmed)
🔹 Annual Share-Repurchase Program: up to $20 B/yr through 2026
Segment Performance
Upstream
🔹 Earnings: $6.76 B; + $1.10 B YoY
🔹 Production: 4,551 koe b/d (Est. 4,609) 🔴; +20 % YoY (Permian + Guyana growth, Pioneer deal)
Energy Products (Refining & Fuels)
🔹 Earnings: $827 M; –40 % YoY on weaker industry margins
🔹 Refinery Throughput: 3,810 kbd (Est. 3,837) 🔴
Chemical Products
🔹 Earnings: $273 M; –65 % YoY on lower margins & start-up costs
🔹 Chemical Sales: 4.78 Mt
Specialty Products
🔹 Earnings: $655 M; –14 % YoY; resilient high-value lubes & additives mix
Operational & Strategic Updates
🔸 Started up China Chemical Complex (1.7 Mt/yr PE, 850 kt/yr PP) ahead of schedule & under budget.
🔸 Second advanced-recycling unit (Baytown) online; doubles plastic-waste processing to 80 M lb/yr.
🔸 Ten “advantaged” projects slated for 2025 start-up, expected to add >$3 B earnings by 2026 at constant prices.
🔸 Cumulative structural cost savings vs 2019 now $12.7 B; targeting $18 B by 2030.
Management Commentary
🔸 CEO Darren Woods: “Our eight-year transformation leaves us built for any environment. Advantaged growth volumes, disciplined capital, and $13 B quarterly operating cash show we’re on track to deliver through 2030 and beyond.”
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Wall St Engine
Goldman Sachs Calls Out “Inflection Point” as It Maintains Buy on $TWLO, Raises PT to $145 from $130
Analyst comments: "We reiterate our Buy rating following solid first-quarter results, with revenue 3% above consensus, operating margin 170 basis points ahead, and free cash flow outperformance of 53%. The stock is indicated up 9% after hours on the back of a third consecutive quarter of accelerating, double-digit revenue growth (+12%), second-quarter revenue guidance 1.3% above consensus, and a slight increase to full-year 2025 growth guidance (now +8%, from 7.5% prior).
Importantly, we believe Twilio’s guidance strikes a solid balance—reflecting healthy near-term trends, with management indicating that customer engagement and usage remained strong through April, while also modestly de-risking second-half expectations in light of potential tariff-related headwinds.
Strong Q1 results reflect effective execution across Twilio’s key strategic pillars: independent software vendors (ISV), self-serve, cross-sell, and international expansion. Segment also showed healthier performance, delivering its best dollar-based net expansion rate (94%) in the last five quarters and returning to positive growth (+1%).
We view the Q2 guide (+9.5% growth) as a reasonable baseline, bolstered by recent go-to-market enablement on product cross-sell, ongoing AI momentum (including the addition of Sierra and a partnership with ElevenLabs for ConversationRelay), and solid upmarket performance—customers spending over $500K grew by 37%.
Overall, we believe Twilio’s results and guidance validate our thesis that the company is reaching an inflection point in both narrative and fundamentals, with solid upside to revenue and free cash flow in FY25 and beyond—still trading at a compelling 14x FY26 EV/FCF (pre-after-hours move)."
Analyst: Kash Rangan
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Goldman Sachs Calls Out “Inflection Point” as It Maintains Buy on $TWLO, Raises PT to $145 from $130
Analyst comments: "We reiterate our Buy rating following solid first-quarter results, with revenue 3% above consensus, operating margin 170 basis points ahead, and free cash flow outperformance of 53%. The stock is indicated up 9% after hours on the back of a third consecutive quarter of accelerating, double-digit revenue growth (+12%), second-quarter revenue guidance 1.3% above consensus, and a slight increase to full-year 2025 growth guidance (now +8%, from 7.5% prior).
Importantly, we believe Twilio’s guidance strikes a solid balance—reflecting healthy near-term trends, with management indicating that customer engagement and usage remained strong through April, while also modestly de-risking second-half expectations in light of potential tariff-related headwinds.
Strong Q1 results reflect effective execution across Twilio’s key strategic pillars: independent software vendors (ISV), self-serve, cross-sell, and international expansion. Segment also showed healthier performance, delivering its best dollar-based net expansion rate (94%) in the last five quarters and returning to positive growth (+1%).
We view the Q2 guide (+9.5% growth) as a reasonable baseline, bolstered by recent go-to-market enablement on product cross-sell, ongoing AI momentum (including the addition of Sierra and a partnership with ElevenLabs for ConversationRelay), and solid upmarket performance—customers spending over $500K grew by 37%.
Overall, we believe Twilio’s results and guidance validate our thesis that the company is reaching an inflection point in both narrative and fundamentals, with solid upside to revenue and free cash flow in FY25 and beyond—still trading at a compelling 14x FY26 EV/FCF (pre-after-hours move)."
Analyst: Kash Rangan
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Wall St Engine
Evercore ISI Cites “fundamentals at risk amid broader macro uncertainty” as It Maintains In Line on $ROKU, Lowers PT to $80 from $105
Analyst comments: "While Roku posted a slight Q1 revenue beat—indicating advertiser demand is holding up—gross profit and EBITDA came in below expectations, as risk-averse ad buyer behavior shifted budgets to the spot market and programmatic channels, resulting in higher supply chain costs for Roku.
For FY25, management lowered revenue guidance due to a more conservative outlook for Devices and reduced gross profit guidance based on a weaker outlook for Platform gross margins, though they maintained the EBITDA outlook due to a slightly lower operating expense forecast.
The company also reaffirmed its target of reaching 100 million households, but the path now relies more heavily on third-party devices, adding some risk to the narrative. Still, near-term supply trends appear strong—for example, The Roku Channel streaming hours were up 84% year-over-year in Q1.
While we've noted improved execution and consistency from Roku in recent quarters, we now view the fundamentals as potentially at risk amid broader macro uncertainty, though we don’t yet see the shares as meaningfully dislocated."
Analyst: Shweta Khajuria
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Evercore ISI Cites “fundamentals at risk amid broader macro uncertainty” as It Maintains In Line on $ROKU, Lowers PT to $80 from $105
Analyst comments: "While Roku posted a slight Q1 revenue beat—indicating advertiser demand is holding up—gross profit and EBITDA came in below expectations, as risk-averse ad buyer behavior shifted budgets to the spot market and programmatic channels, resulting in higher supply chain costs for Roku.
For FY25, management lowered revenue guidance due to a more conservative outlook for Devices and reduced gross profit guidance based on a weaker outlook for Platform gross margins, though they maintained the EBITDA outlook due to a slightly lower operating expense forecast.
The company also reaffirmed its target of reaching 100 million households, but the path now relies more heavily on third-party devices, adding some risk to the narrative. Still, near-term supply trends appear strong—for example, The Roku Channel streaming hours were up 84% year-over-year in Q1.
While we've noted improved execution and consistency from Roku in recent quarters, we now view the fundamentals as potentially at risk amid broader macro uncertainty, though we don’t yet see the shares as meaningfully dislocated."
Analyst: Shweta Khajuria
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Wall St Engine
RT @wallstengine: PAIN TRADE IS INDEX GOING HIGHER, LED BY MAG 7 - GS
"Given large MF underweights & HF l/s ratio across Mag 7 at all time lows (per gs pb chart below), the pain trade from here is index keeps going higher led by Mag 7 (if rally holds today will be S&P 500’s 8th consecutive close in the green...only happened 7 times since 2004)... Added greenshoots with corporates continuing to exit blackout & CTAs projected buyers across the board."
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RT @wallstengine: PAIN TRADE IS INDEX GOING HIGHER, LED BY MAG 7 - GS
"Given large MF underweights & HF l/s ratio across Mag 7 at all time lows (per gs pb chart below), the pain trade from here is index keeps going higher led by Mag 7 (if rally holds today will be S&P 500’s 8th consecutive close in the green...only happened 7 times since 2004)... Added greenshoots with corporates continuing to exit blackout & CTAs projected buyers across the board."
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Offshore
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Wall St Engine
TAKE-TWO DELAYS GTA VI TO MAY 2026
$TTWO confirms Grand Theft Auto VI will now launch May 26, 2026, missing the originally planned Fall 2025 window. Rockstar says the extra time will help realize its “creative vision.” Still expects record net bookings in FY26 & FY27. https://t.co/ZlnJx3VTal
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TAKE-TWO DELAYS GTA VI TO MAY 2026
$TTWO confirms Grand Theft Auto VI will now launch May 26, 2026, missing the originally planned Fall 2025 window. Rockstar says the extra time will help realize its “creative vision.” Still expects record net bookings in FY26 & FY27. https://t.co/ZlnJx3VTal
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Offshore
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Wall St Engine
Wild to think we’ll probably see robotaxis on the road before GTA VI drops. They really skipped two whole PlayStation generations at this point. On behalf of every gamer’s eyeballs: 😢 https://t.co/NJbW5bODSv
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Wild to think we’ll probably see robotaxis on the road before GTA VI drops. They really skipped two whole PlayStation generations at this point. On behalf of every gamer’s eyeballs: 😢 https://t.co/NJbW5bODSv
TAKE-TWO DELAYS GTA VI TO MAY 2026
$TTWO confirms Grand Theft Auto VI will now launch May 26, 2026, missing the originally planned Fall 2025 window. Rockstar says the extra time will help realize its “creative vision.” Still expects record net bookings in FY26 & FY27. https://t.co/ZlnJx3VTal tweet