Wall St Engine
China’s Ministry of Industry is telling automakers to ramp domestic chip use to 25% this year, up from just 15% in late 2024 — a tough ask, given reliance on U.S. and European suppliers. Beijing quietly exempted key American auto chips from tariffs last month after lobbying by Chinese carmakers, underscoring the country’s continued dependence despite a big localization push. One state-owned automaker put it bluntly: “We need to move faster to replace American parts from the system.”
tweet
China’s Ministry of Industry is telling automakers to ramp domestic chip use to 25% this year, up from just 15% in late 2024 — a tough ask, given reliance on U.S. and European suppliers. Beijing quietly exempted key American auto chips from tariffs last month after lobbying by Chinese carmakers, underscoring the country’s continued dependence despite a big localization push. One state-owned automaker put it bluntly: “We need to move faster to replace American parts from the system.”
tweet
Wall St Engine
DOJ SUES AETNA, $HUM, $ELV OVER MEDICARE KICKBACKS - WSJ
Federal prosecutors say top Medicare insurers paid hundreds of millions in kickbacks to brokers to win sign-ups and avoid disabled enrollees seen as costly. From 2016–2021, brokers steered clients to the highest bidders, regardless of plan quality, per the DOJ complaint.
tweet
DOJ SUES AETNA, $HUM, $ELV OVER MEDICARE KICKBACKS - WSJ
Federal prosecutors say top Medicare insurers paid hundreds of millions in kickbacks to brokers to win sign-ups and avoid disabled enrollees seen as costly. From 2016–2021, brokers steered clients to the highest bidders, regardless of plan quality, per the DOJ complaint.
tweet
Wall St Engine
HSBC LOWERS PT ON $AMZN TO $240 FROM $280 - BUY
Analyst comments: "No question, we could well do without the tariff uncertainty. But fundamentally, we continue to see Amazon as exceptionally well placed and exposed to all the right structural themes. While our ‘harvesting the fruits of past investment’ theme has taken a tariff hit, we don’t see signs of a fading moat. In terms of value, we continue to argue that AWS matters above all else (AWS is still approximately 70% of our DCF-based sum-of-the-parts valuation for Amazon). In terms of valuation, multiples have clearly gone down, in part due to a lack of consensus earnings revisions—something that should change post results. That said, even after de-risking our estimates and valuation assumptions, we still see implied upside of approximately 26% to our revised $240 price target (from $280). We reiterate our Buy rating."
Analyst: Christopher Johnen
tweet
HSBC LOWERS PT ON $AMZN TO $240 FROM $280 - BUY
Analyst comments: "No question, we could well do without the tariff uncertainty. But fundamentally, we continue to see Amazon as exceptionally well placed and exposed to all the right structural themes. While our ‘harvesting the fruits of past investment’ theme has taken a tariff hit, we don’t see signs of a fading moat. In terms of value, we continue to argue that AWS matters above all else (AWS is still approximately 70% of our DCF-based sum-of-the-parts valuation for Amazon). In terms of valuation, multiples have clearly gone down, in part due to a lack of consensus earnings revisions—something that should change post results. That said, even after de-risking our estimates and valuation assumptions, we still see implied upside of approximately 26% to our revised $240 price target (from $280). We reiterate our Buy rating."
Analyst: Christopher Johnen
tweet
Wall St Engine
STIFEL LOWERS $AMZN PT TO $245 FROM $248 - BUY
Analyst comments: "First-quarter headline results were better, but AWS was marginally below expectations, and North America margins were also light on the surface. However, stripping out the impact from inventory pull-forwards ahead of tariffs equates to margins that would have beaten Street estimates—something we believe carried into the second quarter. Overall, the tariff commentary reinforced our view that Amazon is relatively well positioned, with a mix of essential items (approximately one-third of units shipped, and Amazon is one of the largest grocery stores even excluding Whole Foods/Fresh) and everything in between from Amazon Haul (Temu-esque) up to higher-end products (such as Saks Fifth Avenue). AWS growth was marginally light, but the forward commentary remains positive, with capacity being consumed the moment it becomes available, and backlog growth accelerating by approximately 600 basis points. Overall, we remain positive on Amazon, and only slightly revise our forward estimates."
Analyst: Mark Kelly
tweet
STIFEL LOWERS $AMZN PT TO $245 FROM $248 - BUY
Analyst comments: "First-quarter headline results were better, but AWS was marginally below expectations, and North America margins were also light on the surface. However, stripping out the impact from inventory pull-forwards ahead of tariffs equates to margins that would have beaten Street estimates—something we believe carried into the second quarter. Overall, the tariff commentary reinforced our view that Amazon is relatively well positioned, with a mix of essential items (approximately one-third of units shipped, and Amazon is one of the largest grocery stores even excluding Whole Foods/Fresh) and everything in between from Amazon Haul (Temu-esque) up to higher-end products (such as Saks Fifth Avenue). AWS growth was marginally light, but the forward commentary remains positive, with capacity being consumed the moment it becomes available, and backlog growth accelerating by approximately 600 basis points. Overall, we remain positive on Amazon, and only slightly revise our forward estimates."
Analyst: Mark Kelly
HSBC LOWERS PT ON $AMZN TO $240 FROM $280 - BUY
Analyst comments: "No question, we could well do without the tariff uncertainty. But fundamentally, we continue to see Amazon as exceptionally well placed and exposed to all the right structural themes. While our ‘harvesting the fruits of past investment’ theme has taken a tariff hit, we don’t see signs of a fading moat. In terms of value, we continue to argue that AWS matters above all else (AWS is still approximately 70% of our DCF-based sum-of-the-parts valuation for Amazon). In terms of valuation, multiples have clearly gone down, in part due to a lack of consensus earnings revisions—something that should change post results. That said, even after de-risking our estimates and valuation assumptions, we still see implied upside of approximately 26% to our revised $240 price target (from $280). We reiterate our Buy rating."
Analyst: Christopher Johnen tweet
twitter.com
undefined
undefined
Wall St Engine
JPMorgan Maintains OW on $XYZ, Lowers PT to $60 from $90
Analyst comments: "Block posted a rare top-line miss (gross profit +9% vs. 11% guide) led by surprise weakness at Cash App—a bit of a role reversal as Square modestly outperformed. The fact that XYZ missed first-quarter guidance with just five weeks left in the quarter naturally raises questions (e.g., quality of consumer base, total addressable market penetration, competition), but was explained by management as weaker inflows and spending from tax refunds that paid out after guidance was issued. This caused Cash App gross profit growth to decelerate 6 percentage points sequentially to 10% (vs. our 12% estimate).
Guidance was cut to reflect a weaker macro environment beyond what was observed in April, but still implies acceleration—though not as steep as before (now 9% in 1Q to 12% for FY25 vs. prior 11% in 1Q to mid-teens for FY25). The good news is that Square narrowed the growth gap to peers (gross payment volume now just 1 percentage point from Clover, the narrowest in two years), suggesting early returns from recent investments and offering hope that Cash App’s expanded network strategy can do the same in a less competitive market than Square.
The challenge for investors is that much of the implied acceleration in Cash App relies on lending to a customer base that just negatively surprised on spending. We are lowering our estimates to be slightly below guidance on gross profit, but in-line on profit for FY25 and Rule of 40 for FY26. We remain Overweight, with the stock trading at approximately 20x trailing twelve-month free cash flow—reasonable in our view considering growth potential. We noted last quarter that the execution bar was high; now it could be as high as ever, with management calling 1Q a bottom and asserting that drivers are in place for acceleration. We're cautiously optimistic, recognizing that the margin for error is low in a tough macro backdrop. We look forward to digging deeper on strategy with Block Head Jack Dorsey at our TMC Conference on May 13."
Analyst: Tien-tsin Huang
tweet
JPMorgan Maintains OW on $XYZ, Lowers PT to $60 from $90
Analyst comments: "Block posted a rare top-line miss (gross profit +9% vs. 11% guide) led by surprise weakness at Cash App—a bit of a role reversal as Square modestly outperformed. The fact that XYZ missed first-quarter guidance with just five weeks left in the quarter naturally raises questions (e.g., quality of consumer base, total addressable market penetration, competition), but was explained by management as weaker inflows and spending from tax refunds that paid out after guidance was issued. This caused Cash App gross profit growth to decelerate 6 percentage points sequentially to 10% (vs. our 12% estimate).
Guidance was cut to reflect a weaker macro environment beyond what was observed in April, but still implies acceleration—though not as steep as before (now 9% in 1Q to 12% for FY25 vs. prior 11% in 1Q to mid-teens for FY25). The good news is that Square narrowed the growth gap to peers (gross payment volume now just 1 percentage point from Clover, the narrowest in two years), suggesting early returns from recent investments and offering hope that Cash App’s expanded network strategy can do the same in a less competitive market than Square.
The challenge for investors is that much of the implied acceleration in Cash App relies on lending to a customer base that just negatively surprised on spending. We are lowering our estimates to be slightly below guidance on gross profit, but in-line on profit for FY25 and Rule of 40 for FY26. We remain Overweight, with the stock trading at approximately 20x trailing twelve-month free cash flow—reasonable in our view considering growth potential. We noted last quarter that the execution bar was high; now it could be as high as ever, with management calling 1Q a bottom and asserting that drivers are in place for acceleration. We're cautiously optimistic, recognizing that the margin for error is low in a tough macro backdrop. We look forward to digging deeper on strategy with Block Head Jack Dorsey at our TMC Conference on May 13."
Analyst: Tien-tsin Huang
tweet
Wall St Engine
Bernstein Cites “Strong Execution” as It Upgrades $RDDT to Market Perform from Underperform, Raises PT to $130 from $110
Analyst comments: "We’re tired of getting it wrong on Reddit. While several of the longer-term questions around the Google dependency and small-to-mid-cap social media monetization ceiling remain, we can’t help but be swayed by the strong execution exhibited by this management team. And in an unnerved market, Reddit is quietly going about their business—too small to be heavily exposed to macroeconomic swings—while broadening out their advertiser base. The user growth question remains at the center of the near-term debate, but even here we’ve seen enough to suggest the company can execute their way into sustained positive growth."
Analyst: Mark Shmulik
tweet
Bernstein Cites “Strong Execution” as It Upgrades $RDDT to Market Perform from Underperform, Raises PT to $130 from $110
Analyst comments: "We’re tired of getting it wrong on Reddit. While several of the longer-term questions around the Google dependency and small-to-mid-cap social media monetization ceiling remain, we can’t help but be swayed by the strong execution exhibited by this management team. And in an unnerved market, Reddit is quietly going about their business—too small to be heavily exposed to macroeconomic swings—while broadening out their advertiser base. The user growth question remains at the center of the near-term debate, but even here we’ve seen enough to suggest the company can execute their way into sustained positive growth."
Analyst: Mark Shmulik
tweet
Wall St Engine
Goldman Sachs Keeps Neutral on $ABNB, Raises PT to $139 from $131
Analyst comments: "Airbnb reported solid Q1'25 results with gross bookings roughly in line with our modeling, revenue at the high end of the guided range, and adjusted EBITDA exceeding our estimate by approximately 20%. In terms of forward commentary and Q2 guidance, management bracketed Goldman Sachs and Street estimates and framed the outlook against an uncertain global environment. Travel corridors into the U.S. remain weak (though they represent a small portion of total business), cross-border habits are shifting (with other destinations picking up demand lost by the U.S.), and demand trends remain healthy in expansion markets such as Latin America and Asia-Pacific. In the U.S., the travel environment is mixed and uncertain—Airbnb is seeing a shortened booking window, with shorter lead-time trips performing better than those with longer lead times. However, higher-income travelers remain unimpacted, and there is no indication of consumers trading down.
Furthermore, Airbnb management continues to position the company to execute on its investment plan for 2025, with the upcoming Summer Product release on May 13 likely to give investors a clearer sense of how the platform may evolve toward renewed growth opportunities in the second half of 2025 and beyond."
Analyst: Eric Sheridan
tweet
Goldman Sachs Keeps Neutral on $ABNB, Raises PT to $139 from $131
Analyst comments: "Airbnb reported solid Q1'25 results with gross bookings roughly in line with our modeling, revenue at the high end of the guided range, and adjusted EBITDA exceeding our estimate by approximately 20%. In terms of forward commentary and Q2 guidance, management bracketed Goldman Sachs and Street estimates and framed the outlook against an uncertain global environment. Travel corridors into the U.S. remain weak (though they represent a small portion of total business), cross-border habits are shifting (with other destinations picking up demand lost by the U.S.), and demand trends remain healthy in expansion markets such as Latin America and Asia-Pacific. In the U.S., the travel environment is mixed and uncertain—Airbnb is seeing a shortened booking window, with shorter lead-time trips performing better than those with longer lead times. However, higher-income travelers remain unimpacted, and there is no indication of consumers trading down.
Furthermore, Airbnb management continues to position the company to execute on its investment plan for 2025, with the upcoming Summer Product release on May 13 likely to give investors a clearer sense of how the platform may evolve toward renewed growth opportunities in the second half of 2025 and beyond."
Analyst: Eric Sheridan
tweet
Wall St Engine
Goldman Sachs Cites “Better Than Feared Demand Trends” as It Maintains Neutral on $W, Keeps PT at $31
Analyst comments: "In its Q1'25 earnings report, Wayfair produced operating results that were ahead of Goldman Sachs and Street estimates on net revenue, and more materially ahead on adjusted EBITDA due to a combination of continued expense discipline and non-recurring tailwinds. As the landscape remains volatile, Wayfair provided the following key points for investors: (1) the company did not formally guide to Q2 revenue due to calendar effects making quarter-to-date trends less comparable and forward visibility remaining low, though demand trends so far have remained strong—better than feared; (2) continued focus on cost discipline, with an expense framework provided for Q2 assuming revenue remains stable year-over-year, and a reiteration of guidance to grow adjusted EBITDA and free cash flow dollars in 2025; and (3) a direct acknowledgment of the uncertainty introduced by tariffs, with management stating they are working closely with suppliers and that their marketplace model provides clear incentives for suppliers to offer competitive prices. We reiterate our Neutral rating, adjust our operating estimates for this earnings report and forward management commentary, and maintain our 12-month price target of $31."
Analyst: Eric Sheridan
tweet
Goldman Sachs Cites “Better Than Feared Demand Trends” as It Maintains Neutral on $W, Keeps PT at $31
Analyst comments: "In its Q1'25 earnings report, Wayfair produced operating results that were ahead of Goldman Sachs and Street estimates on net revenue, and more materially ahead on adjusted EBITDA due to a combination of continued expense discipline and non-recurring tailwinds. As the landscape remains volatile, Wayfair provided the following key points for investors: (1) the company did not formally guide to Q2 revenue due to calendar effects making quarter-to-date trends less comparable and forward visibility remaining low, though demand trends so far have remained strong—better than feared; (2) continued focus on cost discipline, with an expense framework provided for Q2 assuming revenue remains stable year-over-year, and a reiteration of guidance to grow adjusted EBITDA and free cash flow dollars in 2025; and (3) a direct acknowledgment of the uncertainty introduced by tariffs, with management stating they are working closely with suppliers and that their marketplace model provides clear incentives for suppliers to offer competitive prices. We reiterate our Neutral rating, adjust our operating estimates for this earnings report and forward management commentary, and maintain our 12-month price target of $31."
Analyst: Eric Sheridan
tweet
Wall St Engine
Goldman Sachs Cites “Durable Demand & Estimate Revisions” as It Maintains Buy on $LYV, Raises PT to $157 from $155
Analyst comments: "We reiterate our Buy rating on shares of Live Nation following Q1 2025 results that featured inline-to-better-than-expected performance in Concerts, partially offset by weakness in Ticketing. While we appreciate that the growth algorithm for 2025 has shifted—with the Concerts segment now expected to generate more adjusted operating income (AOI) than previously expected and Ticketmaster less—we walked away with three key takeaways: (i) on net, our outlook for 2025 estimated AOI increased by approximately $50 million (to $2,480 million), supported by the first-quarter AOI beat and better-than-expected leading indicators for Concerts segment growth; (ii) the demand backdrop for live entertainment remains strong, according to management, despite broader macroeconomic volatility; and (iii) visibility into 2025 performance remains high, with over 50% of estimated tickets to promoted shows already sold. We believe this combination of positive estimate revisions, durable demand, and visibility—despite an uncertain market backdrop—should ultimately support shares following earnings."
Analyst: Stephen Laszczyk
tweet
Goldman Sachs Cites “Durable Demand & Estimate Revisions” as It Maintains Buy on $LYV, Raises PT to $157 from $155
Analyst comments: "We reiterate our Buy rating on shares of Live Nation following Q1 2025 results that featured inline-to-better-than-expected performance in Concerts, partially offset by weakness in Ticketing. While we appreciate that the growth algorithm for 2025 has shifted—with the Concerts segment now expected to generate more adjusted operating income (AOI) than previously expected and Ticketmaster less—we walked away with three key takeaways: (i) on net, our outlook for 2025 estimated AOI increased by approximately $50 million (to $2,480 million), supported by the first-quarter AOI beat and better-than-expected leading indicators for Concerts segment growth; (ii) the demand backdrop for live entertainment remains strong, according to management, despite broader macroeconomic volatility; and (iii) visibility into 2025 performance remains high, with over 50% of estimated tickets to promoted shows already sold. We believe this combination of positive estimate revisions, durable demand, and visibility—despite an uncertain market backdrop—should ultimately support shares following earnings."
Analyst: Stephen Laszczyk
tweet
Wall St Engine
Raymond James Cites “Margin Upside and Growth Acceleration” as It Maintains Strong Buy on $SHAK, Lowers PT to $140 from $145
Analyst comments: "We reiterate our Strong Buy rating on Shake Shack following the company’s first-quarter earnings release. Softer near-term trends are more than offset, in our view, by: (1) strong evidence of tighter operations and increased accountability that led to margin upside in Q1; (2) raised multi-year margin guidance (at least +50 basis points), supporting our view that there are significant opportunities to improve kitchen operations and guest experience by leveraging new equipment, processes, and layouts (including the newly opened kitchen innovation lab); and (3) accelerating high-ROI unit growth, with 2025 company-owned units now guided to 45–50, making mid-teens percentage unit growth more likely than the low-teens guidance previously expected for the next few years.
We are optimistic that a recent return to positive comps in the last two weeks of April can sustain through Q2 (helped by a new limited-time offer just launched, compared to no news in Q1), with significant new menu innovation expected in the second half of 2025, following the addition of a new SVP of culinary/menu. We are slightly raising our EBITDA estimates despite trimming our 2025 comps, and we are lowering our 12-month price target to $140, supported by our DCF analysis."
Analyst: Brian Vaccaro
tweet
Raymond James Cites “Margin Upside and Growth Acceleration” as It Maintains Strong Buy on $SHAK, Lowers PT to $140 from $145
Analyst comments: "We reiterate our Strong Buy rating on Shake Shack following the company’s first-quarter earnings release. Softer near-term trends are more than offset, in our view, by: (1) strong evidence of tighter operations and increased accountability that led to margin upside in Q1; (2) raised multi-year margin guidance (at least +50 basis points), supporting our view that there are significant opportunities to improve kitchen operations and guest experience by leveraging new equipment, processes, and layouts (including the newly opened kitchen innovation lab); and (3) accelerating high-ROI unit growth, with 2025 company-owned units now guided to 45–50, making mid-teens percentage unit growth more likely than the low-teens guidance previously expected for the next few years.
We are optimistic that a recent return to positive comps in the last two weeks of April can sustain through Q2 (helped by a new limited-time offer just launched, compared to no news in Q1), with significant new menu innovation expected in the second half of 2025, following the addition of a new SVP of culinary/menu. We are slightly raising our EBITDA estimates despite trimming our 2025 comps, and we are lowering our 12-month price target to $140, supported by our DCF analysis."
Analyst: Brian Vaccaro
tweet
Wall St Engine
$CI | The Cigna Group Q1 Earnings Highlights
🔹 Adj EPS: $6.74 (Est. $6.35) 🟢; +4% YoY
🔹 Revenue: $65.45 B (Est. $60.46 B) 🟢; +14% YoY
🔹 MCR: 82.2 % (Est. 82.4%) 🟢; +230 bps YoY
🔹 Adj Income from Operations: $1.84 B; –2% YoY
FY25 Guide:
🔹 Adj. EPS: ≥ $29.60 (Prior ≥ $29.50; Est. $29.60) 🟡
🔹 Evernorth Adj. Op. Income (pre-tax): ≥ $7.20 B
🔹 Cigna Healthcare Adj. Op. Income (pre-tax): ≥ $4.125 B
🔹 Cigna Healthcare MCR Outlook: 83.2 % – 84.2 %
Segment Performance
Evernorth Health Services
🔹 Adjusted Revenue: $53.68 B; +16 % YoY
• Pharmacy Benefit Services: $29.74 B; +14 % YoY
• Specialty & Care Services: $23.94 B; +19 % YoY
🔹 Pre-tax Adj. Op. Income: $1.43 B; +5 % YoY
🔹 Pre-tax Margin: 2.7 % (–20 bps YoY)
Cigna Healthcare
🔹 Adjusted Revenue: $14.48 B; +9 % YoY
🔹 Pre-tax Adj. Op. Income: $1.29 B; –4 % YoY
🔹 Medical Care Ratio: 82.2 % (+230 bps YoY)
Customer Metrics
🔹 Total Pharmacy Customers: 122.3 M; +3 % QoQ
🔹 Total Medical Customers: 18.0 M; –6 % QoQ (ex-Medicare divestiture, flat)
Commentary & Strategic Updates
🔸 CEO David Cordani: “Our diversified growth engines—Evernorth and Cigna Healthcare—drove a strong start to 2025; increased transparency and affordability remain core.”
🔸 Completed $3.7 B Medicare-business divestiture to HCSC on Mar 19 2025.
🔸 Repurchased 8.2 M shares YTD for $2.6 B; reiterates commitment to balanced capital deployment.
tweet
$CI | The Cigna Group Q1 Earnings Highlights
🔹 Adj EPS: $6.74 (Est. $6.35) 🟢; +4% YoY
🔹 Revenue: $65.45 B (Est. $60.46 B) 🟢; +14% YoY
🔹 MCR: 82.2 % (Est. 82.4%) 🟢; +230 bps YoY
🔹 Adj Income from Operations: $1.84 B; –2% YoY
FY25 Guide:
🔹 Adj. EPS: ≥ $29.60 (Prior ≥ $29.50; Est. $29.60) 🟡
🔹 Evernorth Adj. Op. Income (pre-tax): ≥ $7.20 B
🔹 Cigna Healthcare Adj. Op. Income (pre-tax): ≥ $4.125 B
🔹 Cigna Healthcare MCR Outlook: 83.2 % – 84.2 %
Segment Performance
Evernorth Health Services
🔹 Adjusted Revenue: $53.68 B; +16 % YoY
• Pharmacy Benefit Services: $29.74 B; +14 % YoY
• Specialty & Care Services: $23.94 B; +19 % YoY
🔹 Pre-tax Adj. Op. Income: $1.43 B; +5 % YoY
🔹 Pre-tax Margin: 2.7 % (–20 bps YoY)
Cigna Healthcare
🔹 Adjusted Revenue: $14.48 B; +9 % YoY
🔹 Pre-tax Adj. Op. Income: $1.29 B; –4 % YoY
🔹 Medical Care Ratio: 82.2 % (+230 bps YoY)
Customer Metrics
🔹 Total Pharmacy Customers: 122.3 M; +3 % QoQ
🔹 Total Medical Customers: 18.0 M; –6 % QoQ (ex-Medicare divestiture, flat)
Commentary & Strategic Updates
🔸 CEO David Cordani: “Our diversified growth engines—Evernorth and Cigna Healthcare—drove a strong start to 2025; increased transparency and affordability remain core.”
🔸 Completed $3.7 B Medicare-business divestiture to HCSC on Mar 19 2025.
🔸 Repurchased 8.2 M shares YTD for $2.6 B; reiterates commitment to balanced capital deployment.
tweet
Wall St Engine
$CVX | Chevron Q1'25 Earnings Highlights
🔹 Adj EPS: $2.18 (Est. $2.11) 🟢; –26 % YoY
🔹 Revenue: $47.61 B (Est. $48.08 B) 🔴; –6 % YoY
🔹 Cash Flow from Ops: $5.28 B (Est. $6.82 B) 🔴
🔹 Free Cash Flow (ex-WC): $3.7 B (–5 % YoY)
🔹 Repurchase About $2.75B In Q2, 30% less than Q1
🔹 Guide Range For Annual Buybacks Of $10B To $20B Unchanged
Segment Performance
Upstream
🔹 Earnings: $3.76 B (Est. $4.13 B) 🔴; –28 % YoY
🔹 Net Production: 3,353 MBOE/d (flat YoY)
🔹 U.S. Liquids Realization: $55.26/bbl (–4 %)
🔹 Intl. Liquids Realization: $67.69/bbl (–7 %)
Downstream
🔹 Earnings: $325 M (Est. $427 M) 🔴; –59 % YoY
🔹 U.S. Refinery Inputs: 1,018 kbd (+16 % YoY)
🔹 Intl. Refinery Inputs: 618 kbd (–5 % YoY)
All Other / Corporate
🔹 Net Charges: –$583 M (vs. –$521 M YoY)
Balance-Sheet & Capital
🔹 Capex: $3.9 B (–5 % YoY)
🔹 Net-Debt Ratio: 14.4 % (vs 8.8 % YoY)
🔹 Board declared Q2 dividend $1.71/sh (payable Jun 10 2025)
🔹 Shareholder Returns: $6.9 B ( $3.9 B buybacks + $3.0 B dividends)
Operational & Strategic Updates
🔸 Production ramp-up at Tengizchevroil after Future Growth Project completion (+20 % YoY output).
🔸 First oil achieved at Ballymore (deep-water Gulf of America) on time & on budget.
🔸 Acquired 4.99 % of Hess shares; remains confident in full Hess acquisition.
🔸 Completed sales of East Texas gas assets and select non-operated U.S. mid-stream assets; proceeds funding buybacks.
🔸 Announced simplified org structure targeting $2-3 B structural cost reduction by 2026.
Management Commentary
🔸 CEO Mike Wirth: “Resilient portfolio, strong balance sheet, and disciplined capital allocation position Chevron to deliver industry-leading free-cash-flow growth by 2026 despite changing market conditions.”
tweet
$CVX | Chevron Q1'25 Earnings Highlights
🔹 Adj EPS: $2.18 (Est. $2.11) 🟢; –26 % YoY
🔹 Revenue: $47.61 B (Est. $48.08 B) 🔴; –6 % YoY
🔹 Cash Flow from Ops: $5.28 B (Est. $6.82 B) 🔴
🔹 Free Cash Flow (ex-WC): $3.7 B (–5 % YoY)
🔹 Repurchase About $2.75B In Q2, 30% less than Q1
🔹 Guide Range For Annual Buybacks Of $10B To $20B Unchanged
Segment Performance
Upstream
🔹 Earnings: $3.76 B (Est. $4.13 B) 🔴; –28 % YoY
🔹 Net Production: 3,353 MBOE/d (flat YoY)
🔹 U.S. Liquids Realization: $55.26/bbl (–4 %)
🔹 Intl. Liquids Realization: $67.69/bbl (–7 %)
Downstream
🔹 Earnings: $325 M (Est. $427 M) 🔴; –59 % YoY
🔹 U.S. Refinery Inputs: 1,018 kbd (+16 % YoY)
🔹 Intl. Refinery Inputs: 618 kbd (–5 % YoY)
All Other / Corporate
🔹 Net Charges: –$583 M (vs. –$521 M YoY)
Balance-Sheet & Capital
🔹 Capex: $3.9 B (–5 % YoY)
🔹 Net-Debt Ratio: 14.4 % (vs 8.8 % YoY)
🔹 Board declared Q2 dividend $1.71/sh (payable Jun 10 2025)
🔹 Shareholder Returns: $6.9 B ( $3.9 B buybacks + $3.0 B dividends)
Operational & Strategic Updates
🔸 Production ramp-up at Tengizchevroil after Future Growth Project completion (+20 % YoY output).
🔸 First oil achieved at Ballymore (deep-water Gulf of America) on time & on budget.
🔸 Acquired 4.99 % of Hess shares; remains confident in full Hess acquisition.
🔸 Completed sales of East Texas gas assets and select non-operated U.S. mid-stream assets; proceeds funding buybacks.
🔸 Announced simplified org structure targeting $2-3 B structural cost reduction by 2026.
Management Commentary
🔸 CEO Mike Wirth: “Resilient portfolio, strong balance sheet, and disciplined capital allocation position Chevron to deliver industry-leading free-cash-flow growth by 2026 despite changing market conditions.”
tweet