⁠Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
Microsoft $MSFT Q3 2025 Report 🗓️

✅ Rev: $70.06B vs $68.42B est | +13% YoY

✅ EPS: $3.46 vs $3.22 est | +18% YoY

☁️ Cloud Revenue $26.75B | +21% YoY https://t.co/hlRyDu1QK9

A quality valuation analysis on $MSFT 🧘🏽‍♂️

•NTM P/E Ratio: 28.38x
•5-Year Mean: 30.91x

•NTM FCF Yield: 2.58%
•5-Year Mean: 2.92%

As you can see, $MSFT appears to be trading near fair value

Going forward, investors can expect to receive ~9% MORE in earnings per share & ~12% LESS in FCF per share🧠***

Before we get into valuation, let’s take a look at why $MSFT is a quality business

BALANCE SHEET✅
•Cash & Equivalents: $71.56B
•Long-Term Debt: $39.72B

$MSFT has an excellent balance sheet, an AAA S&P Credit Rating & 46x FFO Interest Coverage Ratio

RETURN ON CAPITAL✅
•2020: 26.4%
•2021: 31.1%
•2022: 34.0%
•2023: 31.0%
•2024: 29.7%
•LTM: 28.8%

RETURN ON EQUITY✅
•2020: 40.1%
•2021: 47.1%
•2022: 47.2%
•2023: 38.8%
•2024: 37.1%
•LTM: 34.3%

$MSFT has great return metrics, highlighting the financial efficiency of the business

REVENUES✅
•2014: $86.83B
•2024: $245.12B
•CAGR: 10.93%

FREE CASH FLOW✅
•2014: $27.02B
•2024: $74.07B
•CAGR: 10.61%

NORMALIZED EPS✅
•2014: $2.63
•2024: $11.80
•CAGR: 16.19%

SHARE BUYBACKS✅
•2014 Shares Outstanding: 8.40B
•LTM Shares Outstanding: 7.47B

By reducing its shares outstanding ~11%, $MSFT increased its EPS by ~12% (assuming 0 growth)

MARGINS✅
•LTM Gross Margins: 69.4%
•LTM Operating Margins: 45.0%
•LTM Net Income Margins: 35.4%

PAID DIVIDENDS✅
•2014: $1.12
•2024: $3.00
•CAGR: 10.35%

***NOW TO VALUATION 🧠

As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~9% MORE in EPS & ~12% LESS in FCF per share

Using Benjamin Graham’s 2G rule of thumb, $MSFT has to grow earnings at a 14.19% CAGR over the next several years to justify its valuation

Today, analysts anticipate 2025 - 2027 EPS growth over the next few years to be slightly less than the (14.19%) required growth rate:

2025E: $13.16 (11.5% YoY) *FY Jun
2026E: $14.95 (13.6% YoY)
2027E: $17.51 (17.1% YoY)

$MSFT has a decent track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, but let’s assume $MSFT ends 2027 with $17.51 in EPS & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples

32x P/E: $560.32💵 … ~18.5% CAGR

30x P/E: $525.30💵 … ~15.1% CAGR

29x P/E: $507.79💵 … ~13.3% CAGR

28x P/E: $490.28💵 … ~11.5% CAGR

27x P/E: $472.77💵 … ~9.7% CAGR

As you can see, we’d have to assume a 28x multiple for $MSFT to have attractive return potential

At 27x earnings $MSFT has ok CAGR potential

$MSFT is one of the highest quality companies in the world & is firing on all cylinders

Although I wouldn’t want to rely on a >30x multiple, I feel comfortable accumulating $MSFT shares at ~$390💵 while relying on 28x - 29x

I consider $MSFT a steal with a large margin of safety at $350💵, where I can reasonably expect 11.7% CAGR while assuming a conservative 25x
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𝐃𝐈𝐒𝐂𝐋𝐎𝐒𝐔𝐑𝐄‼️: 𝐓𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐬 𝐍𝐎𝐓 𝐈𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐀𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞. 𝐁𝐚𝐛𝐲𝐥𝐨𝐧 𝐂𝐚𝐩𝐢𝐭𝐚𝐥® 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐢𝐭𝐬 𝐫𝐞𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐞𝐬 𝐦𝐚𝐲 𝐡𝐚𝐯𝐞 𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐞𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐞𝐬 𝐝𝐢𝐬𝐜𝐮𝐬𝐬𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭.

𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐚𝐥 𝐩𝐮𝐫𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐞𝐬 𝐨𝐧𝐥𝐲 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐬𝐡𝐨𝐮𝐥𝐝 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐛𝐞 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐮𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐚𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞 𝐭𝐨 𝐦𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐩𝐞𝐜𝐢𝐟𝐢𝐜 𝐧𝐞𝐞𝐝𝐬 𝐨𝐟 𝐚𝐧𝐲 𝐢𝐧𝐝𝐢𝐯𝐢𝐝𝐮𝐚𝐥 𝐨𝐫 𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐮𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧. 𝐏𝐚𝐬𝐭 𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐞 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞 𝐨𝐟 𝐟𝐮𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐮𝐥𝐭𝐬.

𝐈𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐡𝐚𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐞𝐧 𝐨𝐛𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞�[...]

� 𝐟𝐫𝐨𝐦 𝐬𝐨𝐮𝐫𝐜𝐞𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐝 𝐭𝐨 𝐛𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐚𝐛𝐥𝐞, 𝐛𝐮𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐭𝐨 𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐩𝐥𝐞𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐞𝐬𝐬 𝐨𝐫 𝐚𝐜𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐚𝐜𝐲. - Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital® tweet

⁠Investing visuals
$QCOM Q1 Earnings 🚨

• Revenue: $10.8 billion vs 10.6 billion Est.
• EPS $2.85 vs $2.82 Est.

Stock is down -5% https://t.co/Z51jrDcj9N
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⁠App Economy Insights
$MSFT Microsoft Q3 FY25 (ending March):

☁️ Azure +35% Y/Y fx neutral (31% in Q2).
🤖 16% of Azure revenue attributed to AI.

• Revenue +13% Y/Y to $70.1B ($1.6B beat).
• Operating margin 46% (+1pp Y/Y).
• EPS $3.46 ($0.24 beat). https://t.co/jyXqagFqKd
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⁠Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
Meta Platforms $META Q1 2025 Report 🗓️

✅ Rev: $42.31B vs $41.38B est | +16% YoY

✅ EPS: $6.43 vs $5.28 est | +37% YoY https://t.co/T4lI1ekCMF
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⁠App Economy Insights
$META Meta Q1 FY25:

👨‍👩‍👧‍👦 Daily active people +6% Y/Y to 3.43B.
👀 Ad impressions +5% Y/Y.
• Revenue +16% Y/Y to $42.3B ($1.0B beat).
• Operating margin 41% (+4pp Y/Y).
• EPS $6.43 ($1.21 beat).
• FY25 Capex: $64-$72B (prev. $60-$65B). https://t.co/WOaXEooABG
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⁠Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
Less than 2 months ago I highlighted that $BKNG stock “finally reached my $4,300 price target”

Since then, $BKNG has surged +19%✅

You can find the original valuation analysis in the post attached below👇🏽 https://t.co/xNeY3JwcYt

$BKNG stock finally reached my $4,300 price target & bounced +4% 💸

While this is nice in the short-term, I’d much prefer $BKNG to trade in my accumulation range a bit longer so I can continue adding to the position

As I stated a couple months ago:

“I’d consider $BKNG a great purchase closer to $4300 (~18.50x multiple) roughly 7% below today’s share price or closer to 21x NTM estimates

This is where I can reasonably expect ~10.50% CAGR assuming a more conservative 20x 2027 earnings estimates, ensuring a substantial margin of safety & leaving room for potential multiple expansion” - Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
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