Offshore
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Capital Employed
Best Stock Pitches newsletter hitting inboxes tomorrow.
You don't want to miss this one - so many good ideas >
https://t.co/jEccgMyfbM
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Best Stock Pitches newsletter hitting inboxes tomorrow.
You don't want to miss this one - so many good ideas >
https://t.co/jEccgMyfbM
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Offshore
Video
Quiver Quantitative
BREAKING: Representative Tim Burchett just said that he hopes members of Congress are arrested for corrupt stock trades.
"Congress is hogs at the trough" https://t.co/1UrrUIu4FZ
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BREAKING: Representative Tim Burchett just said that he hopes members of Congress are arrested for corrupt stock trades.
"Congress is hogs at the trough" https://t.co/1UrrUIu4FZ
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Offshore
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Quiver Quantitative
This is pretty wild.
Marjorie Taylor Greene bought stock in Palantir on April 8th.
On April 17th, a $30M deal between Palantir and ICE was announced.
Greene sits on the House Committee on Homeland Security.
The stock has now risen 48% in the three weeks since her purchase. https://t.co/HDqcwJk5Jf
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This is pretty wild.
Marjorie Taylor Greene bought stock in Palantir on April 8th.
On April 17th, a $30M deal between Palantir and ICE was announced.
Greene sits on the House Committee on Homeland Security.
The stock has now risen 48% in the three weeks since her purchase. https://t.co/HDqcwJk5Jf
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Offshore
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Investing visuals
All eyes on $MSFT earnings tomorrow!
• Est. Revenue: $68.4B
• Est. EPS: $3.22 https://t.co/fkDHKbUXfk
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All eyes on $MSFT earnings tomorrow!
• Est. Revenue: $68.4B
• Est. EPS: $3.22 https://t.co/fkDHKbUXfk
tweet
Offshore
Video
The All-In Podcast
David Sacks Explains How Elon Can Pullback from DOGE and Still Be Effective
On E225, @DavidSacks responded to a question on if @elonmusk was "out of @DOGE":
" I don't think he's out of DOGE. He didn't say he was out of DOGE. It was just a matter of how much time he could allocate to each thing."
"I saw this before when I was part of the Twitter transition."
"For the first three months or so, he was basically full-time at Twitter HQ learning the business down to the database level."
"I mean, every nook and cranny of that business he learned about."
"Once he felt like he had a mental model and he had the people in place that he trusted, he can move to more of a maintenance mode."
"And I think that's the only way he can manage five companies, is that he has these intense bursts where he focuses on something, gets the right people and structure in place, feels like he understands it, and then he can delegate more."
"And I think that he has reached that point with DOGE, but he was also clear that he's gonna keep doing it, because if he doesn't, there's gonna be a huge backsliding where all the corrupt interest will basically put back all this corrupt spending."
"So he's gonna stay involved. But as an SGE, he's limited to 130 days a year anyway."
"And so it makes sense for him to kind of now ration his days a little more closely."
"My sense is that DOGE is gonna continue."
"It's just that Elon is shifting to a mode where he can manage it one day a week or two days a week, as opposed to being there five days a week."
tweet
David Sacks Explains How Elon Can Pullback from DOGE and Still Be Effective
On E225, @DavidSacks responded to a question on if @elonmusk was "out of @DOGE":
" I don't think he's out of DOGE. He didn't say he was out of DOGE. It was just a matter of how much time he could allocate to each thing."
"I saw this before when I was part of the Twitter transition."
"For the first three months or so, he was basically full-time at Twitter HQ learning the business down to the database level."
"I mean, every nook and cranny of that business he learned about."
"Once he felt like he had a mental model and he had the people in place that he trusted, he can move to more of a maintenance mode."
"And I think that's the only way he can manage five companies, is that he has these intense bursts where he focuses on something, gets the right people and structure in place, feels like he understands it, and then he can delegate more."
"And I think that he has reached that point with DOGE, but he was also clear that he's gonna keep doing it, because if he doesn't, there's gonna be a huge backsliding where all the corrupt interest will basically put back all this corrupt spending."
"So he's gonna stay involved. But as an SGE, he's limited to 130 days a year anyway."
"And so it makes sense for him to kind of now ration his days a little more closely."
"My sense is that DOGE is gonna continue."
"It's just that Elon is shifting to a mode where he can manage it one day a week or two days a week, as opposed to being there five days a week."
tweet
Offshore
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Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
A quality valuation analysis on $MSFT 🧘🏽♂️
•NTM P/E Ratio: 28.38x
•5-Year Mean: 30.91x
•NTM FCF Yield: 2.58%
•5-Year Mean: 2.92%
As you can see, $MSFT appears to be trading near fair value
Going forward, investors can expect to receive ~9% MORE in earnings per share & ~12% LESS in FCF per share🧠***
Before we get into valuation, let’s take a look at why $MSFT is a quality business
BALANCE SHEET✅
•Cash & Equivalents: $71.56B
•Long-Term Debt: $39.72B
$MSFT has an excellent balance sheet, an AAA S&P Credit Rating & 46x FFO Interest Coverage Ratio
RETURN ON CAPITAL✅
•2020: 26.4%
•2021: 31.1%
•2022: 34.0%
•2023: 31.0%
•2024: 29.7%
•LTM: 28.8%
RETURN ON EQUITY✅
•2020: 40.1%
•2021: 47.1%
•2022: 47.2%
•2023: 38.8%
•2024: 37.1%
•LTM: 34.3%
$MSFT has great return metrics, highlighting the financial efficiency of the business
REVENUES✅
•2014: $86.83B
•2024: $245.12B
•CAGR: 10.93%
FREE CASH FLOW✅
•2014: $27.02B
•2024: $74.07B
•CAGR: 10.61%
NORMALIZED EPS✅
•2014: $2.63
•2024: $11.80
•CAGR: 16.19%
SHARE BUYBACKS✅
•2014 Shares Outstanding: 8.40B
•LTM Shares Outstanding: 7.47B
By reducing its shares outstanding ~11%, $MSFT increased its EPS by ~12% (assuming 0 growth)
MARGINS✅
•LTM Gross Margins: 69.4%
•LTM Operating Margins: 45.0%
•LTM Net Income Margins: 35.4%
PAID DIVIDENDS✅
•2014: $1.12
•2024: $3.00
•CAGR: 10.35%
***NOW TO VALUATION 🧠
As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~9% MORE in EPS & ~12% LESS in FCF per share
Using Benjamin Graham’s 2G rule of thumb, $MSFT has to grow earnings at a 14.19% CAGR over the next several years to justify its valuation
Today, analysts anticipate 2025 - 2027 EPS growth over the next few years to be slightly less than the (14.19%) required growth rate:
2025E: $13.16 (11.5% YoY) *FY Jun
2026E: $14.95 (13.6% YoY)
2027E: $17.51 (17.1% YoY)
$MSFT has a decent track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, but let’s assume $MSFT ends 2027 with $17.51 in EPS & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples
32x P/E: $560.32💵 … ~18.5% CAGR
30x P/E: $525.30💵 … ~15.1% CAGR
29x P/E: $507.79💵 … ~13.3% CAGR
28x P/E: $490.28💵 … ~11.5% CAGR
27x P/E: $472.77💵 … ~9.7% CAGR
As you can see, we’d have to assume a 28x multiple for $MSFT to have attractive return potential
At 27x earnings $MSFT has ok CAGR potential
$MSFT is one of the highest quality companies in the world & is firing on all cylinders
Although I wouldn’t want to rely on a >30x multiple, I feel comfortable accumulating $MSFT shares at ~$390💵 while relying on 28x - 29x
I consider $MSFT a steal with a large margin of safety at $350💵, where I can reasonably expect 11.7% CAGR while assuming a conservative 25x
___
𝐃𝐈𝐒𝐂𝐋𝐎𝐒𝐔𝐑𝐄‼️: 𝐓𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐬 𝐍𝐎𝐓 𝐈𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐀𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞. 𝐁𝐚𝐛𝐲𝐥𝐨𝐧 𝐂𝐚𝐩𝐢𝐭𝐚𝐥® 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐢𝐭𝐬 𝐫𝐞𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐞𝐬 𝐦𝐚𝐲 𝐡𝐚𝐯𝐞 𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐞𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐞𝐬 𝐝𝐢𝐬𝐜𝐮𝐬𝐬𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭.
𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐚𝐥 𝐩𝐮𝐫𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐞𝐬 𝐨𝐧𝐥𝐲 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐬𝐡𝐨𝐮𝐥𝐝 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐛𝐞 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐮𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐚𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞 𝐭𝐨 𝐦𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐩𝐞𝐜𝐢𝐟𝐢𝐜 𝐧𝐞𝐞𝐝𝐬 𝐨𝐟 𝐚𝐧𝐲 𝐢𝐧𝐝𝐢𝐯𝐢𝐝𝐮𝐚𝐥 𝐨𝐫 𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐮𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧. 𝐏𝐚𝐬𝐭 𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐞 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞 𝐨𝐟 𝐟𝐮𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐮𝐥𝐭𝐬.
𝐈𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐡𝐚𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐞𝐧 𝐨𝐛𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐫𝐨𝐦 𝐬𝐨𝐮𝐫𝐜𝐞𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐝 𝐭𝐨 𝐛𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐚𝐛𝐥𝐞, 𝐛𝐮𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐭𝐨 𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐩𝐥𝐞𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐞𝐬𝐬 𝐨𝐫 𝐚𝐜𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐚𝐜𝐲. <a href='https://twit[...]
A quality valuation analysis on $MSFT 🧘🏽♂️
•NTM P/E Ratio: 28.38x
•5-Year Mean: 30.91x
•NTM FCF Yield: 2.58%
•5-Year Mean: 2.92%
As you can see, $MSFT appears to be trading near fair value
Going forward, investors can expect to receive ~9% MORE in earnings per share & ~12% LESS in FCF per share🧠***
Before we get into valuation, let’s take a look at why $MSFT is a quality business
BALANCE SHEET✅
•Cash & Equivalents: $71.56B
•Long-Term Debt: $39.72B
$MSFT has an excellent balance sheet, an AAA S&P Credit Rating & 46x FFO Interest Coverage Ratio
RETURN ON CAPITAL✅
•2020: 26.4%
•2021: 31.1%
•2022: 34.0%
•2023: 31.0%
•2024: 29.7%
•LTM: 28.8%
RETURN ON EQUITY✅
•2020: 40.1%
•2021: 47.1%
•2022: 47.2%
•2023: 38.8%
•2024: 37.1%
•LTM: 34.3%
$MSFT has great return metrics, highlighting the financial efficiency of the business
REVENUES✅
•2014: $86.83B
•2024: $245.12B
•CAGR: 10.93%
FREE CASH FLOW✅
•2014: $27.02B
•2024: $74.07B
•CAGR: 10.61%
NORMALIZED EPS✅
•2014: $2.63
•2024: $11.80
•CAGR: 16.19%
SHARE BUYBACKS✅
•2014 Shares Outstanding: 8.40B
•LTM Shares Outstanding: 7.47B
By reducing its shares outstanding ~11%, $MSFT increased its EPS by ~12% (assuming 0 growth)
MARGINS✅
•LTM Gross Margins: 69.4%
•LTM Operating Margins: 45.0%
•LTM Net Income Margins: 35.4%
PAID DIVIDENDS✅
•2014: $1.12
•2024: $3.00
•CAGR: 10.35%
***NOW TO VALUATION 🧠
As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~9% MORE in EPS & ~12% LESS in FCF per share
Using Benjamin Graham’s 2G rule of thumb, $MSFT has to grow earnings at a 14.19% CAGR over the next several years to justify its valuation
Today, analysts anticipate 2025 - 2027 EPS growth over the next few years to be slightly less than the (14.19%) required growth rate:
2025E: $13.16 (11.5% YoY) *FY Jun
2026E: $14.95 (13.6% YoY)
2027E: $17.51 (17.1% YoY)
$MSFT has a decent track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, but let’s assume $MSFT ends 2027 with $17.51 in EPS & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples
32x P/E: $560.32💵 … ~18.5% CAGR
30x P/E: $525.30💵 … ~15.1% CAGR
29x P/E: $507.79💵 … ~13.3% CAGR
28x P/E: $490.28💵 … ~11.5% CAGR
27x P/E: $472.77💵 … ~9.7% CAGR
As you can see, we’d have to assume a 28x multiple for $MSFT to have attractive return potential
At 27x earnings $MSFT has ok CAGR potential
$MSFT is one of the highest quality companies in the world & is firing on all cylinders
Although I wouldn’t want to rely on a >30x multiple, I feel comfortable accumulating $MSFT shares at ~$390💵 while relying on 28x - 29x
I consider $MSFT a steal with a large margin of safety at $350💵, where I can reasonably expect 11.7% CAGR while assuming a conservative 25x
___
𝐃𝐈𝐒𝐂𝐋𝐎𝐒𝐔𝐑𝐄‼️: 𝐓𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐬 𝐍𝐎𝐓 𝐈𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐀𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞. 𝐁𝐚𝐛𝐲𝐥𝐨𝐧 𝐂𝐚𝐩𝐢𝐭𝐚𝐥® 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐢𝐭𝐬 𝐫𝐞𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐞𝐬 𝐦𝐚𝐲 𝐡𝐚𝐯𝐞 𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐞𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐞𝐬 𝐝𝐢𝐬𝐜𝐮𝐬𝐬𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭.
𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐚𝐥 𝐩𝐮𝐫𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐞𝐬 𝐨𝐧𝐥𝐲 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐬𝐡𝐨𝐮𝐥𝐝 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐛𝐞 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐮𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐚𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞 𝐭𝐨 𝐦𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐩𝐞𝐜𝐢𝐟𝐢𝐜 𝐧𝐞𝐞𝐝𝐬 𝐨𝐟 𝐚𝐧𝐲 𝐢𝐧𝐝𝐢𝐯𝐢𝐝𝐮𝐚𝐥 𝐨𝐫 𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐮𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧. 𝐏𝐚𝐬𝐭 𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐞 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞 𝐨𝐟 𝐟𝐮𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐮𝐥𝐭𝐬.
𝐈𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐡𝐚𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐞𝐧 𝐨𝐛𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐫𝐨𝐦 𝐬𝐨𝐮𝐫𝐜𝐞𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐝 𝐭𝐨 𝐛𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐚𝐛𝐥𝐞, 𝐛𝐮𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐭𝐨 𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐩𝐥𝐞𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐞𝐬𝐬 𝐨𝐫 𝐚𝐜𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐚𝐜𝐲. <a href='https://twit[...]
Offshore
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Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
Visa $V Reports a Strong Q2 🎯
✅ Rev: $9.59B vs $9.55B (est) | +9% YoY
✅ EPS: $2.76 vs $2.68 (est) | +10% YoY
Board of directors authorized a new $30B multi-year share repurchase program https://t.co/VYxiChhXwk
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Visa $V Reports a Strong Q2 🎯
✅ Rev: $9.59B vs $9.55B (est) | +9% YoY
✅ EPS: $2.76 vs $2.68 (est) | +10% YoY
Board of directors authorized a new $30B multi-year share repurchase program https://t.co/VYxiChhXwk
tweet