Offshore
Photo
Finding Compounders
Stay on track using @gainify_io
tweet
Stay on track using @gainify_io
The most DEFINING week of earnings season kicks off tomorrow.
Heavyweights reporting: $AAPL $AMZN $BKNG $BRK.A $HOOD $LLY $META $MCD $MSFT $PYPL $QCOM $SPOT $V $XOM and many others.
It’s a big one.
Stay organized — track everything at https://t.co/3KIppfqCEm https://t.co/gp2B1VPG5D tweet
Offshore
Photo
The Kobeissi Letter
Gold continues to make history:
Gold prices have outpaced the S&P 500 by 32.6 percentage points year-to-date, the most since at least 1975.
This has surpassed the record of ~26.0 percentage points for the same period of the year during 2020.
This comes as gold prices have rallied 26.5% while the S&P 500 has declined 6.1% so far this year.
Gold is now on track for its second consecutive year of S&P 500 outperformance.
Since the October 2022 low, gold prices have returned 102%, nearly DOUBLING S&P 500's gain of 54%.
Keep watching gold.
tweet
Gold continues to make history:
Gold prices have outpaced the S&P 500 by 32.6 percentage points year-to-date, the most since at least 1975.
This has surpassed the record of ~26.0 percentage points for the same period of the year during 2020.
This comes as gold prices have rallied 26.5% while the S&P 500 has declined 6.1% so far this year.
Gold is now on track for its second consecutive year of S&P 500 outperformance.
Since the October 2022 low, gold prices have returned 102%, nearly DOUBLING S&P 500's gain of 54%.
Keep watching gold.
tweet
Offshore
Photo
Hidden Value Gems
Should have read the book. Here is a good summary from Templeton Phillips.
"In his book The Art of the Deal, President Trump advocates for creating a high degree of uncertainty and unpredictability during negotiations...Those tactics aim to apply pressure through uncertainty, distractions, surprise, and confusion surrounding the objective. Moreover, President Trump expresses a willingness to leave deals open-ended and/or renegotiate them at a moment’s notice. Trump also advocates for starting negotiations with extreme positions (e.g., 145% tariffs on Chinese exports), with his actual goal lying much lower and allowing both sides to claim victory if and when an agreement is achieved."
https://t.co/OYaJvidsoq
tweet
Should have read the book. Here is a good summary from Templeton Phillips.
"In his book The Art of the Deal, President Trump advocates for creating a high degree of uncertainty and unpredictability during negotiations...Those tactics aim to apply pressure through uncertainty, distractions, surprise, and confusion surrounding the objective. Moreover, President Trump expresses a willingness to leave deals open-ended and/or renegotiate them at a moment’s notice. Trump also advocates for starting negotiations with extreme positions (e.g., 145% tariffs on Chinese exports), with his actual goal lying much lower and allowing both sides to claim victory if and when an agreement is achieved."
https://t.co/OYaJvidsoq
Has anyone actually read The Art of the Deal?
Probably a few clues on what to expect in the next 4 years... https://t.co/0qS4lqxNUS tweet
Offshore
Photo
Finding Compounders
Here are some highlights from a Lou Simpson interview
He answers on the differences between him and Warren Buffett and the factors he looks for when he is worried an investment might blow up https://t.co/mnEiwkxIoy
tweet
Here are some highlights from a Lou Simpson interview
He answers on the differences between him and Warren Buffett and the factors he looks for when he is worried an investment might blow up https://t.co/mnEiwkxIoy
tweet
Offshore
Photo
Finding Compounders
The biggest mistakes real estate investors make
By John T Reed https://t.co/HaRqGWA5Vz
tweet
The biggest mistakes real estate investors make
By John T Reed https://t.co/HaRqGWA5Vz
tweet
Offshore
Photo
The Kobeissi Letter
This has been one of the most volatile years in history:
The S&P 500 has seen a 2% move in either direction on 23% of trading days, or at least once a week so far this year.
This is the highest reading since 2022, when the share hit 29% for the full year.
By comparison, the long-term average has been twice a month.
According to Bloomberg, April is on track to be the third-most volatile month on record, after October 2008 and March 2020.
Volatility is here to stay.
tweet
This has been one of the most volatile years in history:
The S&P 500 has seen a 2% move in either direction on 23% of trading days, or at least once a week so far this year.
This is the highest reading since 2022, when the share hit 29% for the full year.
By comparison, the long-term average has been twice a month.
According to Bloomberg, April is on track to be the third-most volatile month on record, after October 2008 and March 2020.
Volatility is here to stay.
tweet
Offshore
Video
The All-In Podcast
Google has a Gemini Problem, and Chamath has a plan to fix it 📈
On E225, the besties discussed how Google can cut ChatGPT's lead over Gemini without killing its $200B/year search ads business.
@DavidSacks:
"I think the problem that Google has with respect to ChatGPT, is Gemini is not getting the usage, and ChatGPT is just growing like crazy."
"If you look at how these models perform according to the benchmarks, Gemini is actually really good, but they have not caught up on the usage side."
@friedberg:
"Chamath, you're the CEO of Google, you've got a $200B run rate search ad business."
"What's the right integration of Gemini such that you don't massively disrupt the search ad business overnight?"
"Or do you not care and you're just gonna do it? I think that's the conundrum (Google) is dealing with."
@chamath:
" The more difficult question is, what does the integration look like?"
"They're already inserting Gemini in all kinds of uncomfortable ways."
"So for example, if you use Gmail, or if you use Google Workspace, what happens today is all these random Gemini pop-ups come up all over the place."
"That is an implementation that happened at way too junior a level by people that have no product taste."
"And if you use the products every day, it would be hard for you to disagree with me."
@DavidSacks:
" The Google homepage, would you replace that with an AI chatbot?"
@chamath:
" No. Here's what I would do: I would first go to the critical other points that are around, that today do not cannibalize the blue links."
"If you look at the traffic patterns, almost as a Sankey diagram, the real thing you should be looking at here is where are the entry points into Google that then result in a clickable link."
"And what it would show you is that there are certain places that are highly de-optimized today for revenue generating events."
"They happen as a byproduct, but they don't happen as the use case."
"So in that example, you would put Gmail as a critical place, the Google one subscription, and there's like five or six other places."
"That's where I would put Gemini as the front door and start to habituate 300 to 500 million people a week in using that."
"I think then you can figure out over time how much money you can make from all of that, or how it directs derivative revenue, and figure out what to do with Google dot com last."
"But my point is, the experience in Gmail should be done today."
"The experience in YouTube should be done today."
"The experience in Google one should be done today."
tweet
Google has a Gemini Problem, and Chamath has a plan to fix it 📈
On E225, the besties discussed how Google can cut ChatGPT's lead over Gemini without killing its $200B/year search ads business.
@DavidSacks:
"I think the problem that Google has with respect to ChatGPT, is Gemini is not getting the usage, and ChatGPT is just growing like crazy."
"If you look at how these models perform according to the benchmarks, Gemini is actually really good, but they have not caught up on the usage side."
@friedberg:
"Chamath, you're the CEO of Google, you've got a $200B run rate search ad business."
"What's the right integration of Gemini such that you don't massively disrupt the search ad business overnight?"
"Or do you not care and you're just gonna do it? I think that's the conundrum (Google) is dealing with."
@chamath:
" The more difficult question is, what does the integration look like?"
"They're already inserting Gemini in all kinds of uncomfortable ways."
"So for example, if you use Gmail, or if you use Google Workspace, what happens today is all these random Gemini pop-ups come up all over the place."
"That is an implementation that happened at way too junior a level by people that have no product taste."
"And if you use the products every day, it would be hard for you to disagree with me."
@DavidSacks:
" The Google homepage, would you replace that with an AI chatbot?"
@chamath:
" No. Here's what I would do: I would first go to the critical other points that are around, that today do not cannibalize the blue links."
"If you look at the traffic patterns, almost as a Sankey diagram, the real thing you should be looking at here is where are the entry points into Google that then result in a clickable link."
"And what it would show you is that there are certain places that are highly de-optimized today for revenue generating events."
"They happen as a byproduct, but they don't happen as the use case."
"So in that example, you would put Gmail as a critical place, the Google one subscription, and there's like five or six other places."
"That's where I would put Gemini as the front door and start to habituate 300 to 500 million people a week in using that."
"I think then you can figure out over time how much money you can make from all of that, or how it directs derivative revenue, and figure out what to do with Google dot com last."
"But my point is, the experience in Gmail should be done today."
"The experience in YouTube should be done today."
"The experience in Google one should be done today."
tweet