Offshore
Video
soken
POV: You wake up at 2011, Bitcoin is trading at $1 and people is saying it is a scam https://t.co/uHMa3oyjw8
tweet
POV: You wake up at 2011, Bitcoin is trading at $1 and people is saying it is a scam https://t.co/uHMa3oyjw8
tweet
Offshore
Photo
The Kobeissi Letter
US recession probabilities are rising:
1-year recession odds priced by the S&P 500 earnings yield and the BBB-rated corporate bond spread have jumped to 60%, the highest since 2022.
Over the last few weeks, the probability of a downturn has TRIPLED.
In the past, every time this metric surpassed 80%, the US economy was in a recession.
This comes as the BBB-rated corporate bond spread has surged 40 percentage points over the last 6 weeks, to 1.42%, near the highest since November 2023.
By comparison, the spread’s peak was 1.98% during the 2023 Banking Crisis.
Is the US economy already in a recession?
tweet
US recession probabilities are rising:
1-year recession odds priced by the S&P 500 earnings yield and the BBB-rated corporate bond spread have jumped to 60%, the highest since 2022.
Over the last few weeks, the probability of a downturn has TRIPLED.
In the past, every time this metric surpassed 80%, the US economy was in a recession.
This comes as the BBB-rated corporate bond spread has surged 40 percentage points over the last 6 weeks, to 1.42%, near the highest since November 2023.
By comparison, the spread’s peak was 1.98% during the 2023 Banking Crisis.
Is the US economy already in a recession?
tweet
Offshore
Photo
Finding Compounders
The Five Competitive Forces that Determine Industry Profitability by @MichaelEPorter
Source: Competitive Advantage by @MichaelEPorter https://t.co/sM83MHa7xH
tweet
The Five Competitive Forces that Determine Industry Profitability by @MichaelEPorter
Source: Competitive Advantage by @MichaelEPorter https://t.co/sM83MHa7xH
tweet
Offshore
Photo
The Kobeissi Letter
Japanese investors are selling US Treasuries:
Japanese private financial institutions sold $17.5 billion of long-dated foreign bonds in the week ending April 4th.
Subsequently, they dumped another $3.6 billion over the next 7 days.
This marks the largest 2-week sell-off since the data began in 2005.
That said, Japan’s finance ministry does not break down which countries’ bonds were sold.
However, Japanese market strategists say a substantial share of selling was in either US Treasuries or Mortgage-Backed Securities.
Keep watching the bond market.
tweet
Japanese investors are selling US Treasuries:
Japanese private financial institutions sold $17.5 billion of long-dated foreign bonds in the week ending April 4th.
Subsequently, they dumped another $3.6 billion over the next 7 days.
This marks the largest 2-week sell-off since the data began in 2005.
That said, Japan’s finance ministry does not break down which countries’ bonds were sold.
However, Japanese market strategists say a substantial share of selling was in either US Treasuries or Mortgage-Backed Securities.
Keep watching the bond market.
tweet
Offshore
Photo
Finding Compounders
“He equated buying stocks with buying a truckload of pigs”
How Mr Womack Made a Killing by John Train https://t.co/y8I1rXZCGz
tweet
“He equated buying stocks with buying a truckload of pigs”
How Mr Womack Made a Killing by John Train https://t.co/y8I1rXZCGz
tweet
Offshore
Photo
App Economy Insights
📊 This Week in Visuals:
🧴 Procter & Gamble $PG
☁️ SAP $SAP
💊 AbbVie $ABBV
🌐 IBM $IBM
🥤 PepsiCo $PEP
🧑💻 Intel $INTC and more!
https://t.co/GpfrZ0sNnH
tweet
📊 This Week in Visuals:
🧴 Procter & Gamble $PG
☁️ SAP $SAP
💊 AbbVie $ABBV
🌐 IBM $IBM
🥤 PepsiCo $PEP
🧑💻 Intel $INTC and more!
https://t.co/GpfrZ0sNnH
tweet