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The Kobeissi Letter
BREAKING: The number of new single-family homes for sale has surged to 500,000 in February, the highest since November 2007.
The number of new homes on the market has more than TRIPLED over the last 13 years, from a low of 142,000.
Excluding the 2006 housing bubble this is, by far, the largest supply of new homes in history.
Meanwhile, new single-family homes for sale in the south fell 8,000 to 296,000, near an all-time high.
This is higher than the 291,000 seen in 2006, a year before the housing market crash began.
Are price cuts coming to the housing market?
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BREAKING: The number of new single-family homes for sale has surged to 500,000 in February, the highest since November 2007.
The number of new homes on the market has more than TRIPLED over the last 13 years, from a low of 142,000.
Excluding the 2006 housing bubble this is, by far, the largest supply of new homes in history.
Meanwhile, new single-family homes for sale in the south fell 8,000 to 296,000, near an all-time high.
This is higher than the 291,000 seen in 2006, a year before the housing market crash began.
Are price cuts coming to the housing market?
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App Economy Insights
US Banks Q1 FY25 Performance Y/Y.
$JPM $BAC $WFC $MS $GS $C https://t.co/zbBXwoqEVj
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US Banks Q1 FY25 Performance Y/Y.
$JPM $BAC $WFC $MS $GS $C https://t.co/zbBXwoqEVj
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Finding Compounders
When Entry Multiples Don’t Matter
Great piece by Andreessen Horowitz https://t.co/hS7zUwajmH
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When Entry Multiples Don’t Matter
Great piece by Andreessen Horowitz https://t.co/hS7zUwajmH
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The Kobeissi Letter
BREAKING: The S&P 500 turns negative as the EU says tariffs will remain with little progress made in tariff talks. https://t.co/0pG3xdHtSh
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BREAKING: The S&P 500 turns negative as the EU says tariffs will remain with little progress made in tariff talks. https://t.co/0pG3xdHtSh
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Quiver Quantitative
We've received Q1 fundraising data for 56 members of Congress so far.
Here's who's raised the most:
🔴 Rep. Eli Crane: $1M (99% from individual donors)
🔴 Rep. Mike Lawler: $927K (54%)
🔴 Rep. Don Bacon: $619K (43%)
🔴 Sen. Susan Collins: $570K (76%)
Should get the rest soon. https://t.co/DkX1jS1mO9
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We've received Q1 fundraising data for 56 members of Congress so far.
Here's who's raised the most:
🔴 Rep. Eli Crane: $1M (99% from individual donors)
🔴 Rep. Mike Lawler: $927K (54%)
🔴 Rep. Don Bacon: $619K (43%)
🔴 Sen. Susan Collins: $570K (76%)
Should get the rest soon. https://t.co/DkX1jS1mO9
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The Kobeissi Letter
US consumers are exhausted:
Real income growth expectations of US consumers over the next 5 years are at record lows.
Americans in the bottom-third income group now see record low ~18% chance of higher inflation-adjusted incomes in 5 years,
By comparison, 5 years ago this percentage was twice as large.
Middle-third income consumers' probability of higher incomes is also at a record low of ~25%, falling from ~45% in 2020.
In other words, consumers see inflation outpacing wage growth for the foreseeable future.
Consumers are sick of persistent inflation.
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US consumers are exhausted:
Real income growth expectations of US consumers over the next 5 years are at record lows.
Americans in the bottom-third income group now see record low ~18% chance of higher inflation-adjusted incomes in 5 years,
By comparison, 5 years ago this percentage was twice as large.
Middle-third income consumers' probability of higher incomes is also at a record low of ~25%, falling from ~45% in 2020.
In other words, consumers see inflation outpacing wage growth for the foreseeable future.
Consumers are sick of persistent inflation.
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App Economy Insights
Trump’s steep tariffs on Chinese imports are shaking up the markets.
🤝 This post is sponsored by @HelloRyse
Investors are moving into private markets for stability.
One smart home disruptor is leading the charge, with 10+ patents, an Amazon partnership, and $10M+ in revenue. Now sold in 127 Best Buy locations.
This tech startup is following the acquisition blueprint of Ring ($1.2B) and Nest ($3.2B).
With 200% YoY growth and support from investors like Daymond John, it’s a rare chance to invest before their next big move.
Our readers can earn up to 25% in bonus shares: https://t.co/OGJbNmtbE8
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Trump’s steep tariffs on Chinese imports are shaking up the markets.
🤝 This post is sponsored by @HelloRyse
Investors are moving into private markets for stability.
One smart home disruptor is leading the charge, with 10+ patents, an Amazon partnership, and $10M+ in revenue. Now sold in 127 Best Buy locations.
This tech startup is following the acquisition blueprint of Ring ($1.2B) and Nest ($3.2B).
With 200% YoY growth and support from investors like Daymond John, it’s a rare chance to invest before their next big move.
Our readers can earn up to 25% in bonus shares: https://t.co/OGJbNmtbE8
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