AkhenOsiris
Sports Betting $FLUT $DKNG
If the U.S. does fall into recession, Stifel analysts argue that more people could turn to sports betting as a result of cutting back in other spending areas. Wager sizes are relatively small and betting can easily be done at home (or on your phone).
“If you think about the consumer and the sort of escapism sports betting offers, it should be resilient on a broad basis,” Barry Jonas, who covers the gaming industry at Truist Securities, tells Front Office Sports. Jonas also points to the 90-10 rule when it comes to betting operators’ profits: Around 10% of bettors drive the bulk of their profitability.
Nothing is truly recession-proof, but Jonas says if there’s anywhere in the consumer discretionary space that would prove resilient, it’s sports betting.
Another reason sports betting can weather an economic storm: any recession will likely mean weaker tax revenues, which would encourage states to expand efforts to legalize sports betting. Sports betting is legal in 39 states and Washington, D.C., providing an economic boost for states and local economies.
Stifel analysts acknowledge that concerns centered on problem gambling and online betting eating into bricks-and-mortar betting shops have been a challenge to further legalization. But “historically the need for tax revenues trumps other concerns when states are contemplating gambling expansion,” they wrote.
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Sports Betting $FLUT $DKNG
If the U.S. does fall into recession, Stifel analysts argue that more people could turn to sports betting as a result of cutting back in other spending areas. Wager sizes are relatively small and betting can easily be done at home (or on your phone).
“If you think about the consumer and the sort of escapism sports betting offers, it should be resilient on a broad basis,” Barry Jonas, who covers the gaming industry at Truist Securities, tells Front Office Sports. Jonas also points to the 90-10 rule when it comes to betting operators’ profits: Around 10% of bettors drive the bulk of their profitability.
Nothing is truly recession-proof, but Jonas says if there’s anywhere in the consumer discretionary space that would prove resilient, it’s sports betting.
Another reason sports betting can weather an economic storm: any recession will likely mean weaker tax revenues, which would encourage states to expand efforts to legalize sports betting. Sports betting is legal in 39 states and Washington, D.C., providing an economic boost for states and local economies.
Stifel analysts acknowledge that concerns centered on problem gambling and online betting eating into bricks-and-mortar betting shops have been a challenge to further legalization. But “historically the need for tax revenues trumps other concerns when states are contemplating gambling expansion,” they wrote.
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Quiver Quantitative
BREAKING: Nancy Pelosi has reclaimed her spot as the 2nd richest member of Congress.
She has made $1.7M in the stock market today, per our estimates: https://t.co/MsWBdkfWVE
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BREAKING: Nancy Pelosi has reclaimed her spot as the 2nd richest member of Congress.
She has made $1.7M in the stock market today, per our estimates: https://t.co/MsWBdkfWVE
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The Kobeissi Letter
BREAKING: Global net gold purchases by central banks hit 24 tonnes in February, the most since November 2024.
This marks the 20th month of net buying over the last 21 months.
Central banks are now on track for their 16th consecutive year of net purchases, according to the World Gold Council.
Over the last 3 years, world central banks have acquired a massive 3,176 tonnes of gold.
Central banks are buying gold like we are in a crisis.
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BREAKING: Global net gold purchases by central banks hit 24 tonnes in February, the most since November 2024.
This marks the 20th month of net buying over the last 21 months.
Central banks are now on track for their 16th consecutive year of net purchases, according to the World Gold Council.
Over the last 3 years, world central banks have acquired a massive 3,176 tonnes of gold.
Central banks are buying gold like we are in a crisis.
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The Kobeissi Letter
Fed Chair Powell’s term ends in 13 months, yet new Fed Chair candidates are already being discussed.
The Trump Administration knows economic weakness is coming from tariffs in 2025.
This sets up perfectly for 2026 to be the year of interest rate cuts and economic stimulus, with the newly appointed Fed Chair.
Play the market you have, not the market you want.
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Fed Chair Powell’s term ends in 13 months, yet new Fed Chair candidates are already being discussed.
The Trump Administration knows economic weakness is coming from tariffs in 2025.
This sets up perfectly for 2026 to be the year of interest rate cuts and economic stimulus, with the newly appointed Fed Chair.
Play the market you have, not the market you want.
BREAKING: Treasury Secretary Bessent says the Trump Administration is thinking about the successor for Fed Chair Powell and will begin interviewing candidates in the fall. tweet
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The Kobeissi Letter
Capital is rushing to the sidelines:
In March, hedge funds conducted their most aggressive selling of world stocks since 2013, according to Goldman Sachs data.
Not even the 2020 pandemic saw such a sharp exposure reduction in global equities.
This was particularly driven by hedge funds dumping US technology stocks.
This also contributed to the largest S&P 500 underperformance versus global stocks in 16 years during Q1 2025.
The rush to the sidelines is real.
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Capital is rushing to the sidelines:
In March, hedge funds conducted their most aggressive selling of world stocks since 2013, according to Goldman Sachs data.
Not even the 2020 pandemic saw such a sharp exposure reduction in global equities.
This was particularly driven by hedge funds dumping US technology stocks.
This also contributed to the largest S&P 500 underperformance versus global stocks in 16 years during Q1 2025.
The rush to the sidelines is real.
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The Kobeissi Letter
BREAKING: The median asking home price in the US jumped 6.3% year-over-year last week, to a record $424,985.
Since the beginning of the year, the median asking home price has risen by ~$50,000.
Moreover, the median sale price rose by 3.0% year-over-year, to $383,750, the highest since November 2024.
Meanwhile, the average weekly mortgage rate hit 6.67%, more than double the pandemic lows.
As a result, the typical homebuyer’s monthly mortgage payment surged 5.3% year-over-year, to a record $2,807.
Housing affordability is still getting worse.
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BREAKING: The median asking home price in the US jumped 6.3% year-over-year last week, to a record $424,985.
Since the beginning of the year, the median asking home price has risen by ~$50,000.
Moreover, the median sale price rose by 3.0% year-over-year, to $383,750, the highest since November 2024.
Meanwhile, the average weekly mortgage rate hit 6.67%, more than double the pandemic lows.
As a result, the typical homebuyer’s monthly mortgage payment surged 5.3% year-over-year, to a record $2,807.
Housing affordability is still getting worse.
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The All-In Podcast
RT @ALLIN_meetups: Meet local besties & celebrate Episode 225 happening April 26 around the world
Join or host 👉 https://t.co/SwGpZAvZof
@Jason @friedberg @chamath @DavidSacks @theallinpod @all_in_tok @BrandonLucasOFC https://t.co/ysC5jozN9T
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RT @ALLIN_meetups: Meet local besties & celebrate Episode 225 happening April 26 around the world
Join or host 👉 https://t.co/SwGpZAvZof
@Jason @friedberg @chamath @DavidSacks @theallinpod @all_in_tok @BrandonLucasOFC https://t.co/ysC5jozN9T
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Investing visuals
$TSM reports earnings on Thursday:
🔹Est. Revenue: $25.69 Bln (+40.5%)
🔹Est. Earnings per share: $0.42 (+55.6%) https://t.co/NdWa92FfNi
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$TSM reports earnings on Thursday:
🔹Est. Revenue: $25.69 Bln (+40.5%)
🔹Est. Earnings per share: $0.42 (+55.6%) https://t.co/NdWa92FfNi
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Finding Compounders
Li Lu recounts how Charlie Munger read Barron’s for over 40 years and only got one investment idea from it
Investing is about extreme patience combined with extreme decisiveness https://t.co/ielXieYGtl
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Li Lu recounts how Charlie Munger read Barron’s for over 40 years and only got one investment idea from it
Investing is about extreme patience combined with extreme decisiveness https://t.co/ielXieYGtl
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