⁠The Kobeissi Letter
WOW.

The 10-year note yield just surged another 10 basis points in a matter of minutes as "reciprocal tariffs" went live.

It's now ABOVE 4.50% and 75 basis points above levels seen when the "Fed pivot" began in September 2024.

Something is about to break. https://t.co/IDnp4VDd6T

You can't make this up:

The 10-year note yield now up +60 basis points in 48 hours.

At this rate, we will have 8% mortgages and a recession by the end of the month.

Talk about a turn of events. https://t.co/TrxGP1wKxl - The Kobeissi Letter
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⁠The Kobeissi Letter
BREAKING: S&P 500 futures extend decline to -100 points as "reciprocal tariffs" officially go live.

That's a -380 point drop over the last 12 hours in one of the largest bull traps in history. https://t.co/ckf7aRw2GS

The BULL trap:

We just witnessed the biggest bull trap of 2025 with the S&P 500 erasing a ~4.5% rally in ~3 hours.

Between 10:30 AM ET and 3:15 PM ET, the S&P 500 erased -$2.3 TRILLION of market cap.

Bull traps are TEXTBOOK signs of a bear market.

(a thread) https://t.co/sGIqMRluiE - The Kobeissi Letter
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⁠The Kobeissi Letter
RT @TKL_Adam: Something is breaking as we speak:

The 10-year note yield just extended its 3-day rally to +15% and broke above 4.50% for the first time since February 20th.

Last time yields were this high?

The S&P 500 was +1,200 points higher than it is now.

Something doesn't add up here. https://t.co/doARKI2g3j
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⁠The Kobeissi Letter
BREAKING: S&P 500 futures fall to a new low of the day, now down -120 points. https://t.co/qugbDg6gsm
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⁠The Kobeissi Letter
BREAKING: Japan's stock market falls nearly -4.5% to a new low of the day as US tariffs officially go live. https://t.co/wIbqW5ijkR
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⁠The Kobeissi Letter
We now have:

1. Rapidly rising long-term interest rates

2. GDP set to decline for multiple quarters

3. Inflation data back on the rise

4. Largest wave of tariffs in 100+ years

5. Consumer sentiment at pandemic-levels

6. Stock market in a bear market

What does the Fed even do here?
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⁠Finding Compounders
Seth Klarman on why market efficiency doesn’t exist https://t.co/FFzzhIbkPU
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⁠The Kobeissi Letter
BREAKING: China’s Central Bank asks state-owned banks to reduce US Dollar purchases in response to 104% tariffs imposed at midnight.
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