Offshore
Photo
The Kobeissi Letter
US debt crisis is set to get even worse:
The US Debt-to-GDP ratio is projected to reach a record 156% in 2055, according to the CBO's latest forecast.
This is up from 154% estimated in January 2025 projections.
The CBO assumes nominal US GDP will grow to $88.4 trillion by 2055.
Meanwhile, total federal debt held by the public is set to reach a whopping $138.0 trillion.
The worst part?
This forecast assumes the US avoids a recession during this entire period.
What happens if the economy enters a recession?
tweet
US debt crisis is set to get even worse:
The US Debt-to-GDP ratio is projected to reach a record 156% in 2055, according to the CBO's latest forecast.
This is up from 154% estimated in January 2025 projections.
The CBO assumes nominal US GDP will grow to $88.4 trillion by 2055.
Meanwhile, total federal debt held by the public is set to reach a whopping $138.0 trillion.
The worst part?
This forecast assumes the US avoids a recession during this entire period.
What happens if the economy enters a recession?
tweet
Offshore
Photo
The Kobeissi Letter
Leading indicators point to a further inflation rise:
The US manufacturing input price index jumped to ~65 points in March, the highest in 31 months.
The last time we saw the index just high, CPI inflation stood at 8.5%, the third-highest reading since the 1980s.
At the same time, the services input prices index rose to 60 points, the highest level in 18 months.
Input costs across both goods and services sectors surged at their fastest pace in 23 months.
Inflation is back on the rise.
tweet
Leading indicators point to a further inflation rise:
The US manufacturing input price index jumped to ~65 points in March, the highest in 31 months.
The last time we saw the index just high, CPI inflation stood at 8.5%, the third-highest reading since the 1980s.
At the same time, the services input prices index rose to 60 points, the highest level in 18 months.
Input costs across both goods and services sectors surged at their fastest pace in 23 months.
Inflation is back on the rise.
tweet
Offshore
Photo
The Kobeissi Letter
The modern day gold rush:
Gold prices are now up +70% in 16 months with a new record market cap of $20.75 trillion.
In fact, gold is worth $1.25 trillion MORE than the COMBINED value of the remaining top 10 most valuable assets.
What is gold telling us?
(a thread) https://t.co/JcEgjnWpgL
tweet
The modern day gold rush:
Gold prices are now up +70% in 16 months with a new record market cap of $20.75 trillion.
In fact, gold is worth $1.25 trillion MORE than the COMBINED value of the remaining top 10 most valuable assets.
What is gold telling us?
(a thread) https://t.co/JcEgjnWpgL
tweet
Offshore
Photo
The Kobeissi Letter
BREAKING: President Trump says he “couldn’t care less” if automakers raise car prices in response to his 25% tariff, per Bloomberg. https://t.co/zCpPc51Vm3
tweet
BREAKING: President Trump says he “couldn’t care less” if automakers raise car prices in response to his 25% tariff, per Bloomberg. https://t.co/zCpPc51Vm3
tweet
Offshore
Photo
The Kobeissi Letter
Institutional capital is pouring into gold:
In a recent Bank of America survey, 58% of fund managers said gold performs best in a trade war.
This compares to just 9% for 30-year Treasury Bonds and 3% for Bitcoin.
Throw in the US deficit spending crisis and gold quickly becomes the only global safe haven asset.
It's truly a historic time in the market.
tweet
Institutional capital is pouring into gold:
In a recent Bank of America survey, 58% of fund managers said gold performs best in a trade war.
This compares to just 9% for 30-year Treasury Bonds and 3% for Bitcoin.
Throw in the US deficit spending crisis and gold quickly becomes the only global safe haven asset.
It's truly a historic time in the market.
The modern day gold rush:
Gold prices are now up +70% in 16 months with a new record market cap of $20.75 trillion.
In fact, gold is worth $1.25 trillion MORE than the COMBINED value of the remaining top 10 most valuable assets.
What is gold telling us?
(a thread) https://t.co/JcEgjnWpgL tweet
Offshore
Photo
Investing visuals
If you're interested in robotics, you should know Intuitive Surgical $ISRG.
Five visuals about this high quality business👇🧵 https://t.co/YbP40fgm6m
tweet
If you're interested in robotics, you should know Intuitive Surgical $ISRG.
Five visuals about this high quality business👇🧵 https://t.co/YbP40fgm6m
tweet
The Kobeissi Letter
KEY EVENTS THIS WEEK:
1. ISM Manufacturing PMI data - Tuesday
2. JOLTS Job Openings Data - Tuesday
3. President Trump's "Liberation Day" - Wednesday
4. ADP Nonfarm Employment data - Thursday
5. March Jobs Report - Friday
6. Fed Chair Powell Speaks - Friday
We are expecting the most volatile week of 2025 so far.
tweet
KEY EVENTS THIS WEEK:
1. ISM Manufacturing PMI data - Tuesday
2. JOLTS Job Openings Data - Tuesday
3. President Trump's "Liberation Day" - Wednesday
4. ADP Nonfarm Employment data - Thursday
5. March Jobs Report - Friday
6. Fed Chair Powell Speaks - Friday
We are expecting the most volatile week of 2025 so far.
tweet
Offshore
Photo
Finding Compounders
One should take note of customers bargaining power when analyzing a business
Source : Good Stocks Cheap( https://t.co/mp55X8xaWx) https://t.co/uO2c2Qiei6
tweet
One should take note of customers bargaining power when analyzing a business
Source : Good Stocks Cheap( https://t.co/mp55X8xaWx) https://t.co/uO2c2Qiei6
tweet