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The All-In Podcast
Trump’s Tariffs: 40 Years in the Making 🇺🇸💰
On E221, the besties discussed President Trump's newly announced 25% auto tariffs.
@chamath:
" The one thing I'll say about Donald Trump is you may not agree with the tariffs, but he's been incredibly consistent."
"I stumbled into an interview he did with Larry King in 1987, and he walked through the entire trade imbalance 40 years ago."
@realDonaldTrump in 1987:
" The fact is that you don't have free trade. We think of it as free trade, but you right now don't have free trade."
Chamath:
"Here's what tariffs do: tariffs are a level-setting mechanism that fixes a historical imbalance."
"What they want is to create the economic incentives to re-shore as much industry as possible into the United States."
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Trump’s Tariffs: 40 Years in the Making 🇺🇸💰
On E221, the besties discussed President Trump's newly announced 25% auto tariffs.
@chamath:
" The one thing I'll say about Donald Trump is you may not agree with the tariffs, but he's been incredibly consistent."
"I stumbled into an interview he did with Larry King in 1987, and he walked through the entire trade imbalance 40 years ago."
@realDonaldTrump in 1987:
" The fact is that you don't have free trade. We think of it as free trade, but you right now don't have free trade."
Chamath:
"Here's what tariffs do: tariffs are a level-setting mechanism that fixes a historical imbalance."
"What they want is to create the economic incentives to re-shore as much industry as possible into the United States."
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AkhenOsiris
Mike Santoli:
Market bottoms are a process not a moment, that 40% of 10% corrections deepen to at least 15% even outside of recessions and initial correction lows frequently need to be retested over a number of weeks. In this context, the index retracing most of its snapback bounce is fairly typical. Of course, it’s called a “retest” because sometimes they fail.
Frank Cappelleri of CappThesis on Friday asked a kaon-like question: “Was the back half of March a failure to go up … or a failure to go down? In other words — which side has been more frustrated by the lack of net movement?”
The staticky technical and fundamental atmospherics around Big Tech don’t have much to do with the suspense over the April 2 White House deadline for a new set of “reciprocal” tariffs.
Yet tariffs are standing in as the convenient focal point for nearly all other relevant investor worries: Perceived risks to growth and inflation, as well as wariness around erratic or capricious policymaking that is keeping businesses off balance and upending global alliances.
Such a pileup of feared negatives suggests at least remaining open to ways that things might turn “less bad.”
Could the April 2 tariff deadline prove a psychological clearing event for stocks that culminates this correction phase? Might next week’s jobs report reassure investors that the labor market is resilient? And has the market’s setback lowered that bar enough for first-quarter earnings to act as a source of relief?
All pragmatic questions in a moment of piqued and pervasive pessimism.
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Mike Santoli:
Market bottoms are a process not a moment, that 40% of 10% corrections deepen to at least 15% even outside of recessions and initial correction lows frequently need to be retested over a number of weeks. In this context, the index retracing most of its snapback bounce is fairly typical. Of course, it’s called a “retest” because sometimes they fail.
Frank Cappelleri of CappThesis on Friday asked a kaon-like question: “Was the back half of March a failure to go up … or a failure to go down? In other words — which side has been more frustrated by the lack of net movement?”
The staticky technical and fundamental atmospherics around Big Tech don’t have much to do with the suspense over the April 2 White House deadline for a new set of “reciprocal” tariffs.
Yet tariffs are standing in as the convenient focal point for nearly all other relevant investor worries: Perceived risks to growth and inflation, as well as wariness around erratic or capricious policymaking that is keeping businesses off balance and upending global alliances.
Such a pileup of feared negatives suggests at least remaining open to ways that things might turn “less bad.”
Could the April 2 tariff deadline prove a psychological clearing event for stocks that culminates this correction phase? Might next week’s jobs report reassure investors that the labor market is resilient? And has the market’s setback lowered that bar enough for first-quarter earnings to act as a source of relief?
All pragmatic questions in a moment of piqued and pervasive pessimism.
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The Kobeissi Letter
US debt crisis is set to get even worse:
The US Debt-to-GDP ratio is projected to reach a record 156% in 2055, according to the CBO's latest forecast.
This is up from 154% estimated in January 2025 projections.
The CBO assumes nominal US GDP will grow to $88.4 trillion by 2055.
Meanwhile, total federal debt held by the public is set to reach a whopping $138.0 trillion.
The worst part?
This forecast assumes the US avoids a recession during this entire period.
What happens if the economy enters a recession?
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US debt crisis is set to get even worse:
The US Debt-to-GDP ratio is projected to reach a record 156% in 2055, according to the CBO's latest forecast.
This is up from 154% estimated in January 2025 projections.
The CBO assumes nominal US GDP will grow to $88.4 trillion by 2055.
Meanwhile, total federal debt held by the public is set to reach a whopping $138.0 trillion.
The worst part?
This forecast assumes the US avoids a recession during this entire period.
What happens if the economy enters a recession?
tweet
Offshore
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The Kobeissi Letter
Leading indicators point to a further inflation rise:
The US manufacturing input price index jumped to ~65 points in March, the highest in 31 months.
The last time we saw the index just high, CPI inflation stood at 8.5%, the third-highest reading since the 1980s.
At the same time, the services input prices index rose to 60 points, the highest level in 18 months.
Input costs across both goods and services sectors surged at their fastest pace in 23 months.
Inflation is back on the rise.
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Leading indicators point to a further inflation rise:
The US manufacturing input price index jumped to ~65 points in March, the highest in 31 months.
The last time we saw the index just high, CPI inflation stood at 8.5%, the third-highest reading since the 1980s.
At the same time, the services input prices index rose to 60 points, the highest level in 18 months.
Input costs across both goods and services sectors surged at their fastest pace in 23 months.
Inflation is back on the rise.
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The Kobeissi Letter
The modern day gold rush:
Gold prices are now up +70% in 16 months with a new record market cap of $20.75 trillion.
In fact, gold is worth $1.25 trillion MORE than the COMBINED value of the remaining top 10 most valuable assets.
What is gold telling us?
(a thread) https://t.co/JcEgjnWpgL
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The modern day gold rush:
Gold prices are now up +70% in 16 months with a new record market cap of $20.75 trillion.
In fact, gold is worth $1.25 trillion MORE than the COMBINED value of the remaining top 10 most valuable assets.
What is gold telling us?
(a thread) https://t.co/JcEgjnWpgL
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The Kobeissi Letter
BREAKING: President Trump says he “couldn’t care less” if automakers raise car prices in response to his 25% tariff, per Bloomberg. https://t.co/zCpPc51Vm3
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BREAKING: President Trump says he “couldn’t care less” if automakers raise car prices in response to his 25% tariff, per Bloomberg. https://t.co/zCpPc51Vm3
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The Kobeissi Letter
Institutional capital is pouring into gold:
In a recent Bank of America survey, 58% of fund managers said gold performs best in a trade war.
This compares to just 9% for 30-year Treasury Bonds and 3% for Bitcoin.
Throw in the US deficit spending crisis and gold quickly becomes the only global safe haven asset.
It's truly a historic time in the market.
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Institutional capital is pouring into gold:
In a recent Bank of America survey, 58% of fund managers said gold performs best in a trade war.
This compares to just 9% for 30-year Treasury Bonds and 3% for Bitcoin.
Throw in the US deficit spending crisis and gold quickly becomes the only global safe haven asset.
It's truly a historic time in the market.
The modern day gold rush:
Gold prices are now up +70% in 16 months with a new record market cap of $20.75 trillion.
In fact, gold is worth $1.25 trillion MORE than the COMBINED value of the remaining top 10 most valuable assets.
What is gold telling us?
(a thread) https://t.co/JcEgjnWpgL tweet
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Investing visuals
If you're interested in robotics, you should know Intuitive Surgical $ISRG.
Five visuals about this high quality business👇🧵 https://t.co/YbP40fgm6m
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If you're interested in robotics, you should know Intuitive Surgical $ISRG.
Five visuals about this high quality business👇🧵 https://t.co/YbP40fgm6m
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The Kobeissi Letter
KEY EVENTS THIS WEEK:
1. ISM Manufacturing PMI data - Tuesday
2. JOLTS Job Openings Data - Tuesday
3. President Trump's "Liberation Day" - Wednesday
4. ADP Nonfarm Employment data - Thursday
5. March Jobs Report - Friday
6. Fed Chair Powell Speaks - Friday
We are expecting the most volatile week of 2025 so far.
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KEY EVENTS THIS WEEK:
1. ISM Manufacturing PMI data - Tuesday
2. JOLTS Job Openings Data - Tuesday
3. President Trump's "Liberation Day" - Wednesday
4. ADP Nonfarm Employment data - Thursday
5. March Jobs Report - Friday
6. Fed Chair Powell Speaks - Friday
We are expecting the most volatile week of 2025 so far.
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